The Hurricanes have a couple of decisions to make regarding their current defense corps and no, I am not talking about them making a trade. This issue is a little more immediate, as Joni Pitkanen will be returning to the lineup soon and the Hurricanes are going to have to figure out who will sit to make room for him in the lineup. The team started the year with seven defensemen on the roster with Joe Corvo, Jamie McBain and Bobby Sanguinetti rotating as the healthy scratches. Some might say that it will be an easy decision to sit one of those three when Pitkanen returns but it won't be that simple. Injuries have allowed these three to get into the lineup almost every night and they have been playing well, so deciding which one will sit out in favor of Pitkanen might be a tough call.

Corvo has stepped up to top-four minutes the last few weeks so there is no way he will be sitting out while Bobby Sanguinetti has been steaidly improving with every game so it might be hard to sit him right now. Then there's Jamie McBain, who is a long-time defense partner of Pitkanen and also coming off a couple of very good games. Pitkanen will be an upgrade over anyone he replaces with how great his performance has been this year, but finding the right spot for him in the lineup could be a challenge.

This is where taking an analytical approach would help. Out of all the defensemen on the roster, who is the most replaceable and should sit after Pitkanen's comes back? We will answer those questions after the jump.

The Hurricanes penalty kill reached a new low on February 11, 2013 when the New York Islanders powerplay lit them up for four goals in a game but since then, things have been looking up. The Canes PK has allowed only six goals in the 14 games since then and have climbed their way out of the bottom-10 in the NHL. How effective they have been on the PK in the last 13 games has actually become quite a story, as they've allowed only four goals on 44 powerplay opportunities. It's very important that the Hurricanes continue to be successful on the penalty kll because poor special teams play cost them a few games early on in the season, especially with their powerplay slumping right now.

The turnaround of the Hurricanes penalty kill has been very impressive, there's no doubt about that but what are the odds that the team's recent success on the PK is only smoke & mirrors? They are still at the bottom of the NHL in terms of shots allowed while playing 4-on-5 and have relied on their goaltenders to bail them out of more than a few bad situations. Is it possible that the Canes PK is no different than that of the Toronto Maple Leafs which has also seen a streak of good luck in recent games? The overall underlying numbers suggest so, but let's take a look and see what exactly has changed with the Hurricanes PK in the last 13 games.

PK GA = Penalty kill goals allowed, Pen/Game = Number of penalty kills per game, PK SA = Shots against on penalty ill, PK SV% = Penalty kill save percentage, SA/PK = Shots against per penalty kill

The Hurricanes penalty kill has gotten rather lucky in these last 13 games with the team having a shorthanded save percentage of .925. They are allowing slightly fewer shots but not enough to go from allowing over .20 goals per kill to less than .10 in the span of only 13 games. A decline that sharp is usually the sign of either good or bad luck and that's probably the case with the Hurricanes this season. Their penalty kill likely wasn't as bad as it was for the first 12 games, but it also isn't nearly as good as what we've seen the last 12 games.
 

That being said, the Hurricanes are doing some good things on the penalty kill. After all, they are yielding fewer shots than they were earlier in the season and I think some of that has to do with Eric Staal and Alexander Semin becoming regular additions on the PK. Neither are known for their defensive game (although Semin is vastly underrated), but the Hurricanes are allowing fewer shorthanded shots on goal when these two are on the ice. A lot of it has to do with these two playing an aggressive style on the PK, leading to a few shorthanded breakaways and scoring chances for the Hurricanes. Both Staal and Semin are usually the best players on the ice for the Hurricanes, which makes them a threat no matter what the playing situation is and why they have been good additions to the penalty kill.

Above all, the most important thing to consider with the Hurricanes improvements on the PK is that they have been taking less penalties in general. They've been shorthanded fewer times and alleviating some pressure off their penalty killers to bail the team out of a tough spot. Out of all the things that have gone right for the Hurricanes lately, the fact that they are taking fewer penalties might be the most critical. One less penalty per game may not seem like much, but it can make a difference in the big picture with how much a powerplay goal can change the complexion of a game.

So while the Hurricanes penalty kill has gotten pretty fortunate over the last month or so, they are doing some good things to help improve their shorthanded play and it all starts with the team taking fewer penalties.

I think most would agree that the Hurricanes have not been a great defensive team this year. They rank towards the bottom of the league in shots against, penalty killing and seem to get involved in run-and-gun style games almost every other night. This makes for some very exciting hockey but it can drive fans insane at times because blown coverages and defensive mistakes are going to happen when you play a very open style. Yet, the Hurricanes have managed to win games despite this and have been controlling the play at even strength when the game is close.

There is always the concern of whether or not this type of hockey can succeed in the playoffs, as many of the recent Stanley Cup champions such as the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks featured terrific defenses. I'm sure that many would love for the Hurricanes defense to play like that but it isn't feasible right now. They don't have top-end talents like Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook or Drew Doughty to anchor their defense corps, at least not yet, so the most they can do is make the best of what they currently have.

That doesn't mean the Hurricanes are doomed in the long run, though because there have been some less-than-stellar defensive teams who have gone the distance even with less than stellar defenses. The Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins being good recent examples of that. Adding to that, the Hurricanes are a team that's been producing a lot of shots every night, as well so they are capable of driving the play and being a net positive team in terms of puck possession. A reason for this is because they have quite a few top-end forwards up front and no shortage of capable puck-moving defensemen on their blue-line. 

The old phrase in sports is that "defense wins championships" but having a good offense is just as important in today's NHL. Having a good defense and goaltending is obviously critical to winning, but the impact of a good offense is something that's often understated. You don't need to be a major in statistics to understand that teams who have the puck more often than their opponents are likely to score more while yielding fewer shots and thus, winning more games. This isn't the case all the time since even good possession teams can flounder if they have terrible goaltending, but clubs towards the top of the standings are normally ones who are stronger at controlling the shot battle at even strength.

This is where having forwards who can drive the play forward come in handy. Players like Eric Staal, Alexander Semin, Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. The Staal brothers might be the only ones of this group who receive credit for their two-way play, but Skinner and Semin have just as big of an impact in regards to the Hurricanes territorial play. The Hurricanes produce more scoring chances per 60 minutes when Skinner is on the ice than anyone else and our earlier look at zone entries showed that he gets the puck into the offensive zone more often than any other player. He is also doing this while playing on a line with Jordan Staal, which not only means that the Canes have possession of the puck when they are on the ice, it means that the opposing team's top lines are stuck in their own end, too.

That limits the impact of the other team's top forwards and puts them at a disadvantage. Skinner is prone to slip ups in coverage when his own zone, but he doesn't need to defend for over 50% of the time he is on the ice, which mitigates his flaws and means he is doing more good than harm. The first line has a similar effect, but they've also received a zone start push from the coaching staff and aren't relied on to drive the play as much as Jordan Staal & Jeff Skinner. This is why not having Skinner for five games hurt the team a lot.

Another player whose absence is felt for similar reasons is Joni Pitkanen. Offensive defensemen are often somewhat underrated for this reason. They might never take a shift on the PK and are prone to some terrible mistakes, but if they are effective at driving the play forward it means that their defensive shortcomings do not matter as much and they are doing a lot of help for their team as a whole. We've seen Erik Karlsson have this effect on the Senators for the last couple of years and players like Lubomir Visnovsky have also made a similar impact on their teams. Pitkanen isn't in the same class as Karlsson, but his strengths as an offensive player have had a great impact on the Hurricanes over the years and that has been especially true this season.

Having a defenseman capable of driving the play adds another demension to a team's offensive attack and it's especially helpful if said defenseman is a good puck-handler because that gives the opposing defense much more to worry about. If you look at the zone entry article linked earlier, you'll see that Pitkanen is, by far, Carolina's best defenseman in regards to neutral zone play and that's one of the reasons the Hurricanes are a better team when he is healthy.

Another area where defensemen like Pitkanen help out is exciting the zone. I've lost count of the number of times that a team has failed to generate much offense because their defensemen can't move the puck forward at all, which is why having players capable of doing this is important.

These are the Hurricanes 5v5 zone exit numbers which I have been tracking all season. What I've done is counted every time a Carolina player touched the puck in an attempt to exit the zone, noted if they were able to successfully advance the puck (whether it was via carry, pass or by other means), turned it over or iced it. I haven't been able to link this to a team's ability to drive the play forward, but I think most hockey fans will tell you that the ability to get the puck out of the zone is very important, especially with defensemen, so this is worth looking at.

You can see that Pitkanen is the best defensemen on the Hurricanes at advancing the puck during 5v5 play but another player who has also been very good at doing this is Joe Corvo and he is probably one of the most under-appreciated players on the team. I'm pretty sure that there was an audible groan from the Hurricanes fanbase when Jim Rutherford decided to bring Corvo back to Carolina for a third tour of duty and while he is far from an ideal replacement for Bryan Allen, one thing that he is able to do is get the puck moving in the right direction. It's something that he has been great at doing over most of his career and it's really helped this season since Bobby Sanguinetti's play has come along slower than most were hoping.

In the 150+ games I have tracked, the average zone exit advance rate for defensemen is about 22%, so both Corvo and Pitkanen are performing at an above average level when it comes to getting the puck out. Corvo is doing this while playing fewer minutes and easier opponents than Pitkanen, but he is still playing his role fine and he has actually been a lot better than expected. 

There are going to be many claims that the Hurricanes need to "tighten up" defensively in order to go anywhere in the playoffs and while that's a valid complaint, Carolina isn't going to become a great defensive team with the roster they have now. Adding a defenseman at the trade deadline isn't going to completely fix everything either and you can even make the argument that adding a shutdown defenseman here would be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Fortunately, Kirk Muller has been able to adapt to this team's strengths and has put together a squad that's pretty good at controlling puck possession, which is what usually leads to more wins. The only problem is that this strategy isn't as effective when Pitkanen is out of the lineup and his return can not come soon enough.

Last week, the Hurricanes were well ahead of the pack in the Southeast after picking up two wins over the Florida Panthers in a home-and-home series. How do they look now after winning two out of three games against non-divisional opponents? Answer: not much better or worse than they were a week ago, but they are making progress at the very least.

GR = Games Remaining, Pts = Points, Avail. = Points available, Needed = Points needed to 55, Point% = Percentage of games they need to earn points to get to 55, Div. = Divisional games remaining 

Even with the Hurricanes struggles within the division, the Hurricanes are still in the best shape to win the Southeast after going 2-1-0 the past week and improving their lead in the standings. The only team that has been gaining some ground on them is the Winnipeg Jets, who went 2-1-1 in their past week and picked up wins over two divisional teams. They are only three points behind the Hurricanes in the standings but they also have played one more game than Carolina, which puts them at a slight disadvantage.

It's easy to look at the standings and say "Oh no, Winnipeg is only three points behind! Carolina really needs to win tonight!" but the one game in hand puts a little less pressure on the Hurricanes. However, the Canes do have a pretty big week coming up where they play Washington twice and then Tampa Bay on the road. This won't make or break the season for Carolina thanks to the position they're in now, but they can easily let Washington or Tampa Bay climb back into the race if they fail to get any points this week. In other words, they aren't "must win" games but things will be much easier for the Hurricanes down the road if they do win.

Tampa Bay was actually still in the race for awhile but their recent slide has put them in a bad position while the Caps had a chance to make things interesting before dropping both games to the Rangers and Islanders. 

In addition to being in a good position, the Hurricanes also have the most optimistic outlook for the rest of the season compared to the divisional adversaries.

In addition to being one of two teams with a positive goal differential, Carolina has also done a better job at controlling the play at even strength and has gotten better goaltending than the rest of the pack. I'm not sure if this will continue with the Justin Peters/Dan Ellis tandem, but I think the Hurricanes will be fine if they can be average for the rest of the season. The fact that the Hurricanes are controlling 52% of the shots with the score close puts less pressure on their goaltenders anyway. The only thing that the Hurricanes need to be very concerned about is their penalty kill, which has been just atrocious at preventing shots. The other teams in the division aren't exactly good on the PK either but Carolina's is still much worse. They've had a good streak of not allowing goals lately, but that will come to an end if they continue to struggle preventing shots.

One other thing I will say is do not sleep on the Winnipeg Jets. I've heard nothing but bad press out of there lately but the team doesn't look too bad all things considered. They need to go something like 12-7-5 to make the playoffs, but they've been pretty good at even strength this season and aren't that far behind Carolina in the standings. Their bad powerplay and terrible PK save percentage might hurt them, but they can still challenge Carolina for the top seed if the Canes struggle the rest of the way.

I have a feeling that this chart will look very different for the Hurricanes by the end of next week. If they can get points or win their next three games then they will be in an even better spot than they are now, but if they drop all three games then things will be much tighter. Going .500 for the rest of the season is all Carolina needs to do to make the playoffs, which sounds easy enough but we've seen many teams fall apart down the stretch in previous seasons. Let's hope Carolina can avoid that.

Stats courtesy of Behind the Net.

As of right now, the Hurricanes are in a good position to both make the playoffs and win the Southeast Division. They basically need to play a little better than .500 hockey for the rest of the season to qualify for the playoffs and it may not even be that much if the rest of the Eastern Conference continues to struggle, according to Sports Club Stats. In other words, all the Canes have to do for the rest of the year is not play terribly and they should find themselves in the post-season. Sound easy enough, right?

The Hurricanes have assembled a pretty decent squad this year, too. They are winning the battle at even strength, have one of the best first lines in the NHL and they've managed to get to 14-9-1 despite playing with a depleted roster for most of the season. The squad isn't perfect, though as they have had plenty of woes on special teams this season but the most frustrating things with the Hurricanes, by far, has been their play within the division.

While the Hurricanes haven't played that many intra-Southeast games this season, they have won only two of seven meetings against divisional opponents nad have been outscored 25-16 in those games. What has put them at the top of the division is a strong 12-4-1 record against the rest of the Eastern Conference, including an impressive 4-1-1 record against the Atlantic Division. That being said, the Hurricanes are going to need to start winning some more games within their own division if they are going to make the playoffs, because most of their remaining games are against these teams.

The fact that Carolina has had such little success in the Southeast is a bit perplexing. The Southeast is the weakest division in the league and the fact that Carolina has gone 2-5-0 against these teams is confusing when you look at their performance against teams who are better. This goes beyond just wins and losses, too as the Hurricanes have recorded plenty of blowouts wins over Atlantic & Northeast teams.

Carolina has outscored the Atlantic & Northeast teams by almost 20 at even strength, while they are averaging barely two goals per game against the Southeast. Their numbers against the Southeast would actually look a lot worse had it not been for that six-goal performance against Florida last Saturday night. Even when you add in the special teams goals, they are still outscoring the rest of the Eastern Conference by 15 goals. So, what's the root of the problem here? Does Carolina have a problem getting ready for games within the division? I would buy that excuse if the teams they were playing outside of the Southeast weren't significantly better than what they are facing within their own division.

Taking a closer look at their numbers against the Southeast shows that poor luck has played somewhat of role in their divisional struggles.

ESSF = Even strength shots for, ESSA = Even strength shots against, CorF = Corsi For, CorA = Corsi Against, ESCF = Even strength scoring chances for, ESCA = Even strength scoring chances against, ES Sh% = even strength shooting percentage, ESSV% = Even strength save percentage

For the most part, Carolina has been able to control play and outchance their divisional opponents at even strength. I'm not sure how much predictive value this has because they were also playing from behind in most of these games, but I wouldn't bank on their goaltending being that bad for their remaining 11 games against the Southeast. Their shooting percentage against the Southeast is also below average but they haven't gotten absurdly unlucky either.

On the other hand, Carolina hasn't been blowing away the rest of their competition at even strength and yet, they've managed to outscore them by 15 thanks to the team having a shooting percentage of nearly 13%. That obviously isn't going to stay that high for the entire year and it's also doubtful that the Ellis/Peters tandem will stop nearly 93% of the shots they see for the rest of the year. In other words, it's been a tale of extremes for the Hurricanes with them getting all the bounces against teams who aren't from the Southeast.

I would expect those to even out as the year goes on and the Canes will have a chance to pad their lead this week with two games against Washington and a road game against Tampa Bay coming up. At the same time, Carolina will probably struggle against the rest of the Eastern Conference since they aren't controlling the play enough for them to remain dominant. They also have games remaining against Boston, Pittsburgh & Montreal, who are among the best teams in the East and will pose a tough test for the Canes.

In the end, I think things will eventually even out and the Hurricanes will make the playoffs since they're in a good enough position now. The only way I could see things going wrong is for them to suffer injuries to more key players and their underlying numbers to take a nose-dive as a result. We've known to expect the unexpected in this shortened season, so let's hope that things continue to go well for the Hurricanes in this second half.

Most of the Hurricanes injured players have returned but one player who has been on the shelf longer than intended is center Tim Brent. He was part of the notorious first-wave of injuries that occurred a few weeks ago, as he has been struggling with a nagging groin problem for quite awhile now. He is set to make his return to the lineup tonight and Brent might give the Hurricanes a bigger jolt than some think. I know this sounds kind of ridiculous at first glance because Brent is a fourth liner who usually doesn't play more than 10 minutes per game, has only two points, isn't a top-faceoff guy and isn't that good of a penalty killer either. How can someone who appears to be pretty replaceable help Carolina's lineup so much?

It's true that Brent is a fourth liner and his role is very replaceable but since he went down, the guys who Carolina has called in to take over the fourth line center spot haven't been very good. In fact, the team's fourth line has been a liability more times than not with Brent out of the lineup. That isn't a huge problem because they are being matched up against other team's depth forwards, but it does hurt the team's overall depth and puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the lineup, especially when the fourth line is given only 4-8 shifts like they were Thursday night. With Riley Nash assuming the role of third line center for now, the fourth line has had to resort to other Charlotte call-ups like Brett Sutter and Jeremy Welsh or make do with players like Tim Wallace centering this line. All three haven't worked out due to them playing poorly or Muller only giving them 2-5 minutes of ice-time.

Brent only plays 6-8 minutes a game at even strength no matter what, so his impact is limited but whenever he is on the ice, the Hurricanes have been able to move the puck in the right direction. Granted, this is with him playing against other team's fourth lines but you can never have too many players capable of driving the play. Brent has been able to do that this year and that's even with him taking a lot of extra shifts in the defensive zone. He has been able to make the Canes fourth line an effective unit this year, as the ability of both Tim Wallace & Kevin Westgarth to carry the mail at even strength improved whenever he is on a line with them. Again, he is doing this against weak competition but as a fourth liner he isn't expected to do much more and there's nothing wrong with that.

Brent's play at even strength has improved dramatically this year, but he is actually missed a lot more on the powerplay. Most Hurricanes fans remember that Brent quarterbacked Carolina's powerplay for a good part of last season and he actually did a damn fine job when it came to producing scoring chances. He didn't start this season on any of the powerplay units, but the Canes struggles there have led to them placing Brent back on the point and he is one of the team's most efficient producers with the man advantage.

The Hurricanes have gone through a lot of lineup changes this season but I don't think any position has been more of a revolving door as the right wing spot on the second line. With Tuomo Ruutu out until at least mid-April, Kirk Muller has tried out just about every weapon in his arsenal to find a suitable linemate for Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. The second line has had it's ups and downs this year, as both Staal and Skinner have done a terrific job of driving possession while playing against tough competition, but finding another winger to help them has been a struggle.

Jordan Staal has been able to make the second line a good territorial unit even with sub-par wingers, but he can't turn dust into gold and make it a scoring line with just anyone. We saw this in the five games that Skinner was hurt. When Skinner is healthy, he and Staal have been somewhat dangerous and effective offensively, but they've struggled in the last couple of games when Tim Wallace was placed on the other wing, which could be a sign that these two can't do all the work by themselves and need a more consistent linemate. The first line might be lighting things up now, but I still believe that they will cool down eventually and when that does, the other lines are going to need to pitch in, which is why filling this hole on the second line will be important.

You could argue that Patrick Dwyer provided the Hurricanes with a nice stop-gap for the second line until Ruutu returns but he was eventually demoted to the third line and has since developed some nice chemistry with Jussi Jokinen & Riley Nash on that unit. Jokinen was another player who got an audition on this line as a winger and while he was able to drive the play well, he wasn't scoring and ended up being demoted. Muller probably doesn't want to mess with the chemistry of that line for now, so I guess Dwyer & Jokinen are no longer options. Chad LaRose and Zac Dalpe would also be options for the second line but they are both injured now which leaves spare parts like Tim Wallace and Drayson Bowman who have been on the fourth line more times than not.

I know that coaches don't like to mess with chemistry, but I think having a good second line is more important than keeping a solid third line together. So let's pretend that all of the players I listed above (save for Dalpe since he's out indefinitely) are fair game for the second line. Which players on the roster is the best fit with Skinner and Staal? This means that they have to be at least decent offensively, play competently against opposing team's top lines and be able to drive the play forward. I'm sure that many people reading this already know who their answer is and have their own opinions on certain players on the team. There's nothing wrong with that, but a better way to go about it is to take a closer look at each player's performance on the ice.

So, what I'm going to do is look at how each player has performed in all three zones without mentioning their names and differ to the readers on who they want to see on the second line from the available options. No biases or previous opinions here, just the facts.

Following a hockey team can be a grueling task at times since there are many twists and turns that come with the territory. At the beginning of the season, you always tell yourself that every team is going to experience good and bad stretches (unless you're the Chicago Blackhawks) and it's best to stay rational through it all. Yet, whenever a winning or losing streak of 3-5 games occurs, the vibe among the fanbase is nothing but joy or panic. There is either a lot of praise about confidence and leadership whenever things are going right and when they don't, it's nothing but finger-pointing at certain players and assumptions about what is wrong with said team. We saw plenty of this in Carolina last season with the team's struggles but similar things have resurfaced this season, too. 

The final results look good for the Hurricanes, as they currently sit atop of the Southeast Division with a seven point lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning but the road to get here has been a little uneven to stay the least. The Canes started off the year dropping their first two games, giving a lot of fans a very pessimistic outlook until they swept a back-to-back series against the Buffalo Sabres. Following that, Carolina suffered a tough loss against Boston followed by a win over Ottawa and a road trip where they went 4-1-1. There was a lot of talk about how the team was coming together then and how they were on the verge of possibly doing something special this year.

Then the wave of injuries happened. The Hurricanes save five different players go on IR (three of whom being defensemen) and the team would then drop four of their next five games with the four losses coming in ugly fashion. Injuries are tough to deal with but every team goes through them and the Canes lack of depth was showing, which led to a lot of soothsayers coming out of the woodwork. The team suddenly had character issues and "no drive to win" because of four bad games. They would then go on a four game winning streak after a few players returned off the IR and now all is well again.  What will happen in the next five games remains to be seen, but it will be interesting to see the stories that emerge if the Canes go on another skid or continue their winning ways.

The fact of the matter is that no matter how bad or good a stretch of five games is, it's a very small portion of what is a long season. Yes, it's a shortened season and every game means more with there being no inter-conference play, but everyone has to remember not completely overreact to what happens in a small sample size. If the Canes go on a Chicago-like run or a Columbus-like fall, then we can start freaking out but until either of those happens, let's keep a cool head about things.

It's pretty interesting to see how much fans emotions have swung back in forth in the last week based on the Hurricanes play because the team's underlying numbers have been somewhat constant these past nine or ten games, only with completely different results.

Carolina's ability to control the scoring chances at even strength has only been slightly better during this brief winning streak than it was during their rough patch. The difference was that more pucks were going in for them at even strength and their goaltenders went from playing from below replacement to an elite level. As fun as it has been to watch this team the last four games, it's doubtful that they will continue to get this lucky in terms of both shooting and save percentage. In fact, you can even make the argument that it's a little concerning that they've been on the losing end of the scoring chance battle even with a reasonably healthy lineup but this is only four games and the Canes held a big lead in all of them, so score effects definitely played a role there.

When looking at the big picture, the Hurricanes appear to be in decent shape even if they've been playing a little over their heads in their last four games.

Carolina is still on the right side of things, but the percentages might catch up to them soon and their scoring rate will decline if they continue to be only a 50-51% team at even strength. I'm not sure what will happen to the team once they begin to score less, but I'm sure the narratives that will be drawn out of it will be fun. The thing to remember here is that good and bad stretches happen over the course of the season even when a team is playing well, and the Canes have done that for most of the year. If they can continue to at least stay above 50% during even strength play, then I don't think there will be much to panic about in Raleigh unless a long losing streak happens, and I mean a long one. Not a rough patch lasting 4-5 games because there have been plenty of teams who have weathered through those in the past.

Take a look at the league leaders in even strength point production and you'll see a few familiar faces as Carolina's first line of Eric Staal, Alexander Semin and Jiri Tlusty are in the top-30 in even strength points per 60 minutes. Staal leads the pack with an insane 4.08 even strength points per 60 minutes, a rate that puts him higher than the likes of Sidney Crosby, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Getzlaf and Steven Stamkos. Anyone who follows hockey knows that this line has been fantastic for the Hurricanes this season but I don't think people have any idea of just how good they've been. 

In addition to their ridiculous even strength scoring rates, Staal has been held without a point in only five games this season and has seven multi-point games. His current scoring pace would give him 97 points in a full-82 game season while Semin & Tlusty's scoring rates would give them 78 and 66 points respectively. The three have different skillsets but they compliment each other well. Both Staal and Semin have been terrific at winning battles along the boards and it has helped free up space for Tlusty, which has let to him having 10 goals and 17 points in 21 games. Meanwhile, Semin has shined as a great play-maker and Staal has been doing most of the bull-work down low to score from the dirty areas. They've been quite a lethal combination ever since Kirk Muller put them on the same line and they've contributed to 43% of Carolina's goals this year.

What are the chances of them continuing to produce at this level, though? A quick look at their underlying numbers doesn't paint an optimistic picture for them because all three are barely winning the shot battle at even strength and have on-ice shooting percentage north of 14%, which is normally a sign that they have gotten quite lucky this season and will probably cool down soon. For reference, there have been only two players since 2007-08 to maintain an EV on-ice shooting percentage of over 14%. One of them was Daniel Sedin and the other was Darryl Boyce, so one of the best scorers in the league and a player who is never on-ice for a lot of shots on goal in a year. Other players who have posted high on-ice shooting percentage in recent seasons include Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell, Jordan Eberle, Paul Statsny, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Getzlaf, Sidney Crosby, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgenii Malkin and Alex Tanguay. Basically guys who are elite scorers/play-makers or those who got to play on a line with them.

It's possible that the Canes first line can continue to post a high shooting percentage in a 48-game season, but the ability to maintain a shooting percentage above 14% for a long period of time is very rare and given what we know about Staal and Semin, both have been able to elevate the shooting percentage of their linemates but they aren't in Crosby/Sedin/Stamkos territory. In other words, there's a good chance that they end up having great offensive seasons, but Staal probably will not continue to produce four points for every 60 minutes he plays. I know that he has a 100-point season under his belt, but expecting that kind of production from him (and almost any player) is unreasonable.

How much will this line taper off is a good question because while their point-production might drop off, some fans may not even notice it because of how ridiculous they are performing right now. Remember, this is a line that's producing a almost every game and that probably isn't sustainable. Their not-so-great underlying numbers going by shot totals suggest that they could be in for some major regression, but their scoring chance numbers are a little more optimistic, especially Tlusty's.
 

This line is getting outshot on a lot of nights, but they have been doing a great job of winning the scoring chance battle despite that. However, the only thing this protects is their high plus-minus because the amount of chances they are producing per 15 minutes is kind of low for the type of minutes they are getting. Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner have actually been producing more offense with less ice-time but haven't received the same amount of shooting luck, so these three are still prone to suffer some regression with their goal regression. The only exception being Alexander Semin, who is the only member of this line to not have a shooting percentage above 10%. He might actually be on the verge of scoring more goals with how low his personal shooting percentage is.

Keep in mind that this is all even strength production and Carolina's powerplay hasn't received much luck at all this season. You could say that they aren't creating any of their luck because of how bad it has looked at times this year, but there is some reasons to be optimistic here. Yes, the Canes powerplay is in the bottom-five in terms of success rate, but they are 16th in 5v4 shots per 60 minutes. That isn't great, but it certainly isn't "worst in the NHL" bad either. On the flipside, opposing goalies have stopped .912 of the 5v4 shots they face when Carolina is on the powerplay, which shows that they could be due for some bounces to go their way here. Staal, Semin and Tlusty have combined for five PPGs and their shooting percentages on the powerplay aren't ridiculously high either, so it's possible that they could make up for things on the powerplay if their even strength production takes a fall.

Luck is a tough thing to grasp in hockey becuase people always seem to come up with reasons as to why high percentages won't regress back to the mean. I do think that anything can happen in a shortened year, but it's been proven in recent history that not many teams have been able to shoot at over 14% at even strength when a certain player is on the ice. It doesn't matter how good this player is or how they "constantly shoot from scoring areas" because historical evidence has shown that high shooting percentages eventually come down at some point in time. Staal, Semin and Tlusty are not immune to this, so it's unlikely that they will continue to produce at this level for the rest of the year.

That doesn't mean that they won't continue to play good hockey, though. Like I said earlier, they are producing at a very ridiculous rate now, especially Staal, and while they will probably cool a little, these three can still perform well offensively without the aid of a ridiculous even strength shooting percentage. Just not at a 95-100 point pace.

Hurricanes fans are fearing the worst right now, as it was announced earlier this morning that their goaltender Cam Ward will miss the next 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain. Things certainly could have been a lot worse judging from how bad the injury looked when it happened, but at the very least, it's good to know that this isn't anything season-ended or career threatening. That's the good news, the bad news is that the Hurricanes are going to be without their starting goaltender for possibly the rest of the season and that's a big piece to lose no matter what team you are. Ward wasn't having a great start to the year, but his last five games have been terrific and he has stolen more games for the Hurricanes over his career than he has lost.

What many are wondering now is whether or not losing Ward for the next two months will ruin Carolina's season. To put it bluntly, no. Ward is a very good goaltender, but he is not elite and this has been restated countless times. His performance since 2007 has ranged from above average to great and his even strength save percentage was at only .917 this season, which is slightly below average. The one thing that Ward provided was stability in net since he has been the goaltender in Raleigh for so long. He isn't Pekka Rinne or Henrik Lundqvist, so the Hurricanes just need to get average to above average goaltending out of Dan Ellis and Justin Peters the rest of the way and they should be in good shape. 

The question then becomes whether or not Ellis/Peters can provide the Hurricanes with that.