Does Jerome Samson have a future in the NHL?

Players like Jerome Samson are frustrating because they are known as goal-scorers, need top-six minutes to be successful and have scored at nearly a point-per-game pace in every level but the NHL. Every team has a player like this in their organization and most of them are kept around for scoring depth at the AHL level and for emergency call-ups. Samson seems to fit in this class because he has been a 20-goal scorer for the Hurricanes AHL affiliates in Albany & Charlotte over the last four (could be five) seasons and has still yet to make his mark in the NHL. He has played 46 games with the Hurricanes over the last three years and has accumulated a grand total of nine points and scored his first NHL goal only this season.

Samson is a restricted free agent at the end of the year and considering that he was scratched in favor of Derek Joslin, a defeseman who has been forced to play forward due to depth issues, and eventually sent back to the AHL, many are wondering if Samson's time with in the NHL is coming to an end. His future with the organization is not looking promising but who is to say that Samson is destined to be a career AHL-er at the age of 24? With so many 19-21 year olds entering the league, it's tough for older "rookies" like Samson to make their mark in the league but it isn't impossible for a player to enter the league and become a full-time player in their mid-20's. The question is can Samson become a full-time NHL player next season at the age of 25, what kind of player will he be and will he break into the NHL as a Carolina Hurricane? Those will be explored after the jump.

According to Hockey-Reference's web site, there are over 130 forwards in the NHL who broke into the league after they turned 24 and most of them have experience in the AHL. Others have either played in Europe or at the college level for four years before making the jump into the big leagues. Going by this, the window of opportunity for Samson to become an NHL-er next season will still be open if he can stay productive in Charlotte and make a good impression to Carolina or other team's front offices. Like I mentioned before, he is only a restricted free agent and the Hurricanes can keep him around for next season if they wish but does he have any future with the team aside from being used as a call-up? To help figure this out, let's take a look at some players who entered the NHL after their 25th birthday. This will give us some idea of what we can expect from Samson in the long run and determine if the Hurricanes have the need for a player like him.

Player	Age	AHL Gms	AHL Goals	AHL Pts	Pts/Gm	NHL Gms	NHL Goals	NHL Pts	Pts/Gm
Mike Knuble	25	148	50	108	0.7297	1029	272	535	0.5199
John Madden	26	149	58	154	1.0336	887	163	346	0.3901
Mikael Samuelsson	25	74	34	87	1.1757	658	144	335	0.5091
Jody Shelley	25	139	6	23	0.1655	622	18	54	0.0868
Chris Clark	25	169	47	108	0.6391	607	103	214	0.3526
Andy McDonald	25	67	22	72	1.16	644	174	465	0.722
Chris Kelly	25	239	59	131	0.5481	557	93	211	0.3788
Chris Kunitz	26	118	41	87	0.7373	520	145	337	0.6481
Dominic Moore	25	148	33	89	0.6014	518	67	181	0.3494
Antti Miettinen	25	83	15	58	0.6988	505	89	217	0.4297
Tomas Kopeckey	25	246	64	137	0.5569	406	45	122	0.3005
Brad Winchester	25	195	65	105	0.5385	388	37	68	0.1753
Brett McLean	25	238	65	153	0.6429	384	56	162	0.4219
Tom Kostopoulos	25	382	122	317	0.829	604	60	155	0.2566
Dave Steckel	25	208	54	112	0.5385	377	31	68	0.1804
Curtis Glencross	25	159	48	88	0.5535	347	93	186	0.536
Jed Ortmeyer	25	197	28	83	0.4213	333	22	53	0.1592
Rich Peverley	26	177	56	168	0.9492	325	69	189	0.5815
Joel Ward	28	209	38	86	0.4115	310	46	117	0.3774
Mikhail Grabovski	25	78	25	74	0.9487	310	84	199	0.6419

These are the top 20 all players who played their first NHL season after they turned 25 sorted by the number of NHL games played. Most of them are very solid/useful players that I would not mind having on the Hurricanes but we have to consider a few other things when going over this list. First off, this mainly shows what Samson's ceiling might if he were to play his first full NHL season next year. There are a lot of "late-bloomers" who went on to have solid NHL careers but the best player on this list is either Mike Knuble or Andy McDonald so we can say that Samson's ceiling is a top-six player who can score about 15-25 goals per season if he reaches his full potential.

There are other factors to consider here, though. Samson is a completely different player than a lot of guys on this list. He is known as a "pure goal-scorer," normally plays in offensive situations and doesn't kill penalties. Guys like Chris Kelly, John Madden, David Steckel, Joel Ward and Dominic Moore have been in the league for so long because of their solid defensive play and willingness to kill penalties. There are others like Tomas Kopecky who went onto succeed in the NHL despite not killing penalties often but for the most part, the "late-bloomers" who have gone onto having careers in the NHL have had to do more than just score.

Another thing to bring up is that most of these players spent a shorter time in the AHL than Samson has. He's played over 300 games in the AHL and the only player on the list who has played more games in the AHL is Tom Kostopolous, a career journeyman and bottom-six staple. A player spending less time in the AHL shows that he needed less time to develop in the minors shows that he has a better chance of having a sustained NHL career. When looking at players who have spent more time in the AHL than Samson, it's tough to get very confident about his future in the league.

Player	Age	AHL Gms	AHL Goals	AHL Pts	Pts/Gm	NHL Gms	NHL Goals	NHL Pts	Pts/Gm
Boyd Kane	25	797	181	432	0.542033	31	0	3	0.0968
Alex Giroux	27	706	340	650	0.92068	48	6	12	0.25
Graham Mink	24	638	227	451	0.706897	7	0	0	0
Keith Aucoin	29	630	212	707	1.122222	90	10	33	0.3667
Jon DiSalvatore	24	602	178	430	0.714286	6	0	0	0
Quintin Laing	28	568	80	231	0.40669	79	3	11	0.1392
Ben Guite	28	559	99	263	0.470483	175	19	45	0.2571
Mathieu Darche	31	552	212	443	0.802536	250	30	72	0.288
Mark Cullen	27	504	143	392	0.777778	38	7	17	0.4474
Patrick Rissmiller	28	474	112	323	0.681435	192	18	46	0.2396
Warren Peters	29	472	93	173	0.366525	85	4	8	0.0941
Kris Newbury	25	464	97	312	0.672414	66	4	8	0.1212
Brandon Segal	26	455	107	208	0.457143	94	11	22	0.234
PA Parenteau	27	450	166	403	0.895556	178	38	123	0.691
Colin Stuart	26	423	84	172	0.406619	56	8	13	0.2321
Andre Deveaux	24	417	75	164	0.393285	31	0	2	0.0645
Jeff Hoggan	27	412	111	211	0.512136	107	2	11	0.1028
Riley Armstrong	24	397	85	164	0.413098	2	0	0	0
Jason Jaffray	26	378	131	306	0.809524	49	4	11	0.2245
Chris Durno	29	366	108	211	0.576503	1	0	0	0
Craig Weler	27	365	42	101	0.276712	95	4	14	0.1474
Pascal Pelletier	24	357	117	283	0.792717	13	0	0	0
Trevor Gillies	31	354	7	21	0.059322	57	2	3	0.0526
Zenon Konopka	29	350	103	269	0.768571	248	11	27	0.1089
Matt Ellis	26	346	81	188	0.543353	260	16	41	0.1577

The most established players on this list are either fourth-liners (Ellis, Konopka), depth forwards (Darche) or guys that were used as AHL call-ups (Aucoin, Laing, Giroux). The wild card here is PA Parenteau who has always been a great AHL player but has really emerged as a solid top-six winger on the Islanders over the last couple of seasons. Most say that the reason for this is because he regularly plays with John Tavares but Parenteau has posted solid numbers on different lines so I think he has a considerable amount of talent given his success in the AHL. Despite Parenteau's success, players who spend a long time in the AHL don't amount to much at higher levels and Samson is getting close to that age where we find out whether or not he will have a future in the NHL or not.

If you want a reason to be confident in Samson, his AHL scoring rate (approx. .844 pt/game) is roughly similar to Parenteau's and other players with similar numbers are Mike Santorelli, Matt Moulson and Dustin Penner. All of whom are 20 goal scorers and broke into the NHL full-time in their mid-20's. Can Samson have a future similar to those players? It's possible, but he's going to need to make that next big jump soon. Most likely next season.

My opinion on Samson is that he does have a future in the NHL but I am not sure if it will be with the Hurricanes. Going by his AHL point totals, he projects to be about a 30-35 point player in the NHL and a decent third liner. The Canes don't need another third line winger for the immediate future and that seems to be where Samson's place will be in the NHL. He gets relatively soft zone starts against tough competition and is capable of driving play in the right direction, Samson just hasn't been able to score or produce much offense. You could possibly blame this on bad luck because his career shooting percentage is around 6.5% and the Hurricanes are shooting at roughly 5% at even strength when Samson is on the ice. There are some things going wrong that are out of his control but it is safe to say that Samson hasn't done enough in the NHL to say that he has a future in the league.

It will be interesting to see whether or not the Hurricanes send Samson a qualifying offer this summer because while he can still be very useful in Charlotte, it's possible that he might want to be more than an AHL-er next year and look to battle for a roster spot on another club. The window of opportunity for him to make it in the NHL is still open but not for much longer.