Over the last few months, I've discussed the importance of neutral zone play and tracking zone entries and today, we are finally going to take a look at how the Hurricanes are performing in that regard. Anybody who reads this blog already knows that I am a big follower of the statistical side of hockey and I've been tracking scoring chances for the Hurricanes (among other teams) for the past year or so. Scoring chances and shot-based metrics such as Corsi and Fenwick do a good job of showing which teams are controlling possession and tracking neutral zone play enhances this. 

Think of it this way one of the goals in hockey is to spend more time in your opponent's zone than not, and winning the battle in the neutral zone is a necessary step to accomplish that. Shot-based stats tell you who is spending the most time in their opponent's zone and making the most of their opportunities, but tracking zone entries and neutral zone play can build on this in a number of ways. Being able to control the neutral zone is what leads to teams having more extended time in their opponent's end and in turn, leads to more shots and goals against.

So how do we track neutral zone play? The process is very simple, we look at which players are entering the offensive zone and whether or not they are doing it with control of the puck. It's been shown in past studies that teams who enter the zone with possession are more likely to create shots and scoring chances than teams who just simply play dump-and-chase. Not that dumping the puck in is always bad, but it's essentially giving possession to the other team in most cases and getting the puck into the zone with possession usually leads to more offense, more goals and usually more wins. Tracking neutral zone performance can tell us which players help their teams win more by seeing which ones are the strongest at driving the play forward. It can also tell us who creates the most offense off of their entries, reveal why some players struggle to move the puck forward and who might be a passenger on their line.

I've been tracking zone entries for the Hurricanes and two other teams this season to help expand on this study and see which players are the strongest in terms of neutral zone play. I did this by re-watching every game this season and noting which players got the puck into the offensive zone and if they did it via carry-in, dump-in, pass, tip or another method. It's a simple but time consuming process that can reveal a lot of interesting things about many players and teams in the league.*

After the jump, we'll take a look at what the Hurricanes neutral play says about them and their players.

* I did not count dump-ins where players went off for a line change because the team is obviously not trying to create any offense off those.

There are some people who hate change and it's understandable. Going through changes is never easy for anyone, especially when something has been the same way for such a long time. That's just the way humans work and sometimes it's justified because change isn't always a good thing. In the case, however, change can lead to great things and the Carolina Hurricanes underwent a pretty massive change this off-season. They lost a key cog in Brandon Sutter but also gained a couple huge pieces in Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin.

No one knew whether or not these two players would work out for the Hurricanes but one thing we did know coming into this season was that we were going to see a completely different Hurricanes team. Not many knew how to respond to it. Some were worried, some were excited and some had no idea what to expect from this new-look team. As fans, it's been awhile since this club had made a few big splashes in the off-season and we had gotten used to the way this Hurricanes team had look for the last few years. A huge change like they had undergone this off-season obviously led to some skepticism by many people, myself included.

Despite that, it's hard to argue that some big changes were needed in the Hurricanes case. This club had missed the playoffs three years in a row, were consistently among the league's bottom-feeders in even strength play and were on track to be a lottery team before Maurice was fired in favor of Muller in Decemeber of 2011. Change was brought on the coaching front last year and we saw the player personnel moves to go along with it during the following off-season with the hope that they would change this team for the better.

There are a lot of things to like about this year's Hurricanes team. The offense is much better than it was last season, they have more depth and this team is a lot more fun to watch than last year's squad. The defense, however, has had it's share of problems and it's been very evident on the penalty kill. The Hurricanes penalty kill ranks third to last in the NHL, gives up more shots per 60 minutes than any other team in the league and has been partially responsible for at least three of the team's losses this season. There have also been a few games where the Canes PK has surrendered multiple goals, including last Monday's game where the Islanders tagged them for four goals.

Even strength play is often what dictates success in the NHL and while the Hurricanes have been good in that department, giving up a goal more than once every five times they are on the penalty kill can easily put a team in a hole. The Hurricanes are somewhat lucky to be in a good position now despite this terrible penalty kill when you think about it. The worst part of it is that their PK woes haven't been due to bad luck, they've been giving so many shots on the PK that they would still be ranked near the bottom of the league even if Cam Ward/Dan Ellis weren't posting a combined .825 save percentage.

An easy solution to a bad penalty kill is to stay out of the box, but I honestly think that penalties are unavoidable this season because the refs are calling basically anything borderline, so a better solution is to fix the penalty kill. How should the Hurricanes do that, though? They lost their best penalty killing defenseman in Bryan Allen and didn't replace him, so there isn't much they can do there with the current roster as far as the defense corps goes. They do have some fine defensive forwards and they should be able to help out, but it clearly hasn't been that way so far. 

After the jump, we'll take a look at some of the mistakes the Hurricanes penalty killers have been making, who some of the biggest offenders are and what can be done to fix it.

After yesterday's overtime loss to the Flyers, I did a quick Twitter poll to see what the general feeling was about Carolina's first ten games. There were a lot of mixed responses but the most common answers I got from fans were were "improving," "fun to watch" and "inconsistent." So the general consensus among fans seems to be that this team is heading in the right direction but they still have issues that they need to sort out before they get to where they want to be. Overall, there were more optimistic/hopeful responses than negative, so fans are a little more optimistic about this team.

Fans spirits appear to be higher than they were a year ago, which is why it might surprise some people that the Hurricanes also had 11 points after their first 10 games last season. Their records were very different as the Canes have won at least half of their games whereas last season they were only 4-3-3 and gained a few points from overtime/shootout losses. Their goal differential of -2 is also the same as it was after 10 games last year, which is pretty interesting because of how badly things unraveled after that point. 

The good news is that this team appears to be less in danger of falling off a cliff and out of the playoff race early like last year's squad was. Their goal differential might be the same as it was after ten games last year, but the Canes have done a much better job at controlling the shot battle, which should lead to more positive things if they can keep it up. More importantly, they are also a much stronger team when it comes to even strength play.

Score effects (i.e. playing from behind due to giving up the first goal) have obviously played a role in the Hurricanes high shot totals, but they are still producing a lot of offense and are controlling possession more often than not. The only time they struggled to do so for an entire game was against Ottawa this Thursday. It's also worth noting that the Canes are outscoring their opponents at even strength (granted, it's only by one goal) so their goal differential is beginning to match their play in that area of the game.

Last season, the Canes were getting plowed in the shot battle at even strength even during close games and the percentages eventually caught up to them, which resulted in a poor month of November. Will winning the shot battle lead to a stronger next ten games this season? That remains to be seen, but history suggests that it will. That being said, I'm expecting their shot percentage to decrease a bit over the next few weeks because it's unsustainably high right now at over 60%. Scoring chances also paint a positive picture with the Canes outchancing their opponents 147-132 at even strength through the first ten games. It's much stronger than where they were at this point last year and should hopefully lead to some more wins.

Aside from special teams, the big concern with this team is their defense. They have been able to produce enough offense to be a net positive overall, but they are still giving up over 30 shots per game and 18-19 chances...at even strength. It was kind of expected with the defense corps being over-populated with puck-moving defensemen and not enough shutdown-type players. This style of run-and-gun hockey is very fun to watch and probably more suited for this roster, but it puts a lot of strain on the goaltending and I'm not sure how successful it will be in the long-run.

I mentioned in a recap that the Hurricanes aren't going to be able to outscore their problems every night and they haven't been able to so far this year. Their team shooting percentage at 5v5 is only 6.6% so they are probably due for some regression there but overall point remains. That being said, the Canes first 10 games this season have me feeling somewhat confident about this team but there obviously some concerns and holes to fill. They're still playing well territorially and are due for some bounces to go their way, so I think Carolina finishes these next 10 games with a record above .500.

Most of the talk surrounding the Carolina Hurricanes right now is centered around how well some of their top forwards are playing right now. Eric Staal is off to his best start in quite some time, Alexander Semin has been producing well and so have both Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. The fact that these four are providing most of the offense is a good thing because the Hurricanes need them to produce if they are going to have a chance at the playoffs. They can't be the only ones producing, though because they are going to have off-nights and that's where the rest of the team needs to pitch in. So far, that hasn't been happening.

I mentioned a couple weeks ago that the Buffalo Sabres were going to run into trouble because they had one line doing basically all the work. The Hurricanes aren't too far off from being in that territory as their top-six has been on-ice for all but one even strength goal and their first line has produced about 36% of their total goals on the season. Again, it's good to see the top-six doing their job but not having much scoring depth is going to hurt the team eventually.

I made a few pie-graphs to show just how skewed Carolina's offense has been this year and it really illustrates how much the top-six is being leaned on, especially the first line.

One of the reasons why the Hurricanes acquired Jordan Staal this summer is because he is the type of player who can make the rest of your roster better. We've been over this hundreds of times before, but J. Staal's ability to drive the play and create offense despite playing the toughest minutes on the team allows Kirk Muller to free up some of his other lines to easier minutes. We've seen Muller utilize this strategy by giving Jordan Staal's line the majority of tough minutes while Eric Staal's line has gotten easier zone starts against secondary competition and the third line of Jussi Jokinen, Chad LaRose and Drayson Bowman have gotten some of the "easiest" assignments on the team.

In theory, this strategy makes a lot of sense because the Staal brothers are good enough to handle the toughs and Jokinen was able to efficiently move the puck forward last year in a similar, protected role. So far, one side of this plan has worked out well as Eric Staal's line has done a marvelous job of creating offense and scoring chances but the third line has struggled. One would think that Jokinen, LaRose and Bowman should be able to thrive in a third line role where they aren't being matched up the best that the opposing team has to offer but they haven't been getting the job done. No one on this line has a point yet this season and all three are on the losing end of the scoring chance battle at even strength.

The most alarming thing about their performance thus far is the fact that they haven't been able to push the play forward despite the easier assignments they've been receiving. That and they've been pretty brutal at both ends of the ice in terms of creating and preventing scoring chances.

Jamie McBain's goal on Monday night's game against the Boston Bruins was a bit of a milestone for the Hurricanes. Not only was it the young defenseman's first goal of the season, but it was also the first time all year that the Hurricanes scored in the first period. That's right, it took five games into the year for the Hurricanes to finally score in the first period and they've scored the opening goal only once in those five games, too.

Obviously, this is a very small sample size to work with and it could end up not meaning a lot in the big picture, but I think most Carolina fans would agree that this team has had a problem with slow starts this year. They've been outscored 1-8 in first periods this year and have spent the majority of three games battling back from holes that they dug themselves into. Just what is going wrong for the Canes at the beginning of games, though? Some might say that the team has a tendency to come out sleeping for the first ten minutes like they did in the Bruins game on Monday but getting into penalty trouble is what sunk them against the Florida Panthers on opening night.

Whatever the case is, the Hurricanes really need to start playing better in the opening 20 minutes because a poor start usually sets the tone for the rest of the game. I've mentioned before that the Hurricanes play at 5-on-5 has been pretty solid this year but it would mean a lot more if the team wasn't playing from behind for most of their games. Teams usually outshoot the opposition when they are playing from behind so Carolina having the advantage in shots and scoring chances during even strength play would mean a lot more if they were either tied or leading for most of their games.

Just what is the root of the problem for the Hurricanes in the first period, though? After the jump, we will take a look at how Carolina has played in the first 20 minutes compared to the rest of the game to see if we can find any answers.

Hockey was indeed alive and well in North Carolina during the lockout, as the Charlotte Checkers got off to one of their best starts in team history and have the second best record in the AHL at 23-11-2-3. Their performance during the lockout was very promising for the Hurricanes organization because most of Charlotte's top players were younger players who the Hurricanes drafted. Developing talent in the minor leagues is always important in running a successful franchise, so it was great to see guys like Zach Boychuk, Drayson Bowman, Zac Dalpe and Bobby Sanguinetti excel in Charlotte during the lockout. 

The Checkers receiving the bulk of their production from guys who are on the cusp of being ready for the NHL is somewhat of a double-edged sword in a way, though. It was good to see these players perform well during the work stoppage, but most people knew that these players were going to get their shot in the NHL once it returned. This would lead to a massive talent purge on the Checkers and put the team in a rough spot depending on how many players the Hurricanes decided to call-up. Charlotte isn't in the same boat as Oklahoma City where virtually all of their best players will be going to the NHL, but they could potentially lose some key pieces once the NHL season begins.

Charlotte had to play two games this weekend without the services of Zach Boychuk, Tim Wallace, Dan Ellis, Drayson Bowman, Jeremy Welsh and Bobby Sanguinetti and they could potentially lose a few more players depending on who else is called up, who makes the Hurricanes and who gets lost on waivers. Add in the injuries to Rasmus Rissanen, Jerome Samson and Marc-Andre Gragnani and there could be some tough times ahead for the Checkers. 

That's the risk you take when you have so many players in their early to mid-20's playing in the minor leagues. The AHL acts as a developmental league but it's easy to forget that the Checkers are an independent franchise just like the Hurricanes and they have their own goals to ice a competitive and successful team. The Canes could potentially take a lot of talent away from the Checkers (9 players in total were called up) depending on what happens over the next week.

Just what are the Checkers going to be left when all is said and done, though? To find out, we will take a closer look at how Charlotte's players have been performing this year and discuss who will have to fill in for some of the pieces they will be losing to the NHL very soon.

While the Southeast is going to be far from the strongest division in the NHL this year, there is a good chance that it might be the most competitive. The Florida Panthers managed to dethrone the Washington Capitals as the incumbent champs last season and both of these teams appear to be weaker on paper heading into this year. Meanwhile, the other three teams in the Southeast made improvements last year and the race for the top spot could be much more entertaining than people are expecting. The 48-game season will also play a role in that because every game is going to mean much more than it does in a normal year.

I feel like the Southeast Division is arguably the hardest to predict in the NHL this season with every team being relatively close talent-wise, but something that will go a long way to determining who wins it will be how these teams play against each other. All teams will be playing within their conferences this year and 18 of those games will be intra-division. Divisional play is going to take up over 37% of the schedule which means that those wins (or points) will be even more important than usual. This could be a problem for the Hurricanes, who won only 9 of 24 divisional games last season, but this is shaping up to be a different team and a different division than it was in 2011-12.

Carolina should be better than they were a season ago and that could help them pick up some more wins against divisional foes, but let's keep in mind that they aren't the only team that improved this off-season. I mentioned earlier that both the Winnipeg Jets and Tampa Bay Lightning also have stronger rosters and while the Florida Panthers and Washington Captials are weaker, the Hurricanes won only one game against the Panthers last year and the Caps are always a dangerous team. In other words, the Southeast could go in just about any direction. 

Just how bad was Carolina's divisional play last year, though? Find out after the jump.

Yet another month has gone by without an NHL season but there are still many players on the Hurricanes roster and prospect pool who are currently playing in other leagues. The last time I wrote an update on this, Jiri Tlusty and his point-per-game scoring rate in the Czech League was leading the way. He has been given the luxury of playing on a line with Tomas Plekanec and Jaromir Jagr, so he is definitely benefiting from strong linemates but his scoring line is still impressive. He could potentially see a return to top-six minutes in Carolina once the lockout ends with Tuomo Ruutu being injury and opening up a wing spot on the top two lines. Tlusty's success overseas is a tad surprising for those who thought his breakout season was a fluke and we look forward to what he can do once he and the Hurricanes return.

Who else on the Hurricanes roster and prospect pool is performing well during the lockout, though? Find out after the jump.