Anyone who has been following the Hurricanes this season knows that Kirk Muller's forward line combinations are prone to change on almost a daily basis. Injuries have caused him to try a lot of different things with his lineup and we've seen just about every combination possible in only 33 games. It reached a new high during the recent losing streak when Muller changed the lines a couple times per game and even tweaked the team's first line of Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty and Alexander Semin, which has been the only unit to remain untouched for most of the season. The line juggling is likely going to continue over the next few games since the Hurricanes have a few players whose injury status is currently unknown, namely Tuomo Ruutu and Chad LaRose.

For most of the year, Muller has kept his first line the same with Tlusty, E. Staal and Semin being utilized in a power-vs.-power type of role while his second line has been primarily focused around Jordan Staal & Jeff Skinner handling the tough minutes. This strategy has changed a bit as of late, though as Muller has moved Skinner to the third line with Riley Nash & Jussi Jokinen for two of their last three road games. My suspicions is that this is to free Skinner up to to some easier matchups on the road since the opposing team won't be able to load up their best shutdown players against Carolina's top-two lines. He also seems to trust Nash enough to assume that he can keep up with Skinner and do enough to drive the bus on this line.

Muller has done some pretty interesting things this year in regards to how he runs his forward lines and the decision to move Skinner to the third line for road games is an especially curious one. On one hand, Skinner has been the team's best territorial forward this season and could do some significant damage against a weak matchup. However, Skinner has also managed to post great underlying numbers while playing tough minutes, so is there any need to protect him and place him with weaker linemates on top of that? This move could be only temporary, but it's still worth discussing since it's a pretty important time of the season right now. 

Then there are the defense pairing, which have also been changed up a lot thanks to injuries but they've remained the same as of late. The team is in a bit of a bind right now with Justin Faulk and Bobby Sanguinetti out of the lineup and Muller has kept things relatively the same for the past week. Not having Faulk available obviously limits what Muller can do but it's a little interesting that he has been changing the forwards up constantly while leaving the defense the same after how bad some of them have played lately, especially Joni Pitkanen and Jamie McBain.

Things will probably improve there once Faulk or Sanguinetti returns but until then, Muller has to do what he can to make the most out of the hand that's been dealt to him and that includes finding suitable lines & defense pairings that can fit his system. For the most part, the Canes have been a good puck-possession team at even strength this year and they have enough healthy players to be one right now even though they've struggled in this department lately.

After the jump, we will look at some stats from Hockey Analysis' With or Without You tool to see which Hurricanes lines and defense pairings have been the best in terms of controlling possession this year and what Muller can possibly do now to dress the best lineup possible.

The last couple of weeks have been just brutal to watch from a fan's standpoint and I'm sure that the Hurricanes have been even more frustrated. The team's losing streak has now extended to seven games, they've compiled only one point in the standings over the last 16 days and everyone's confidence is at currently at an all-time low. It's tough to get a team motivated when they haven't tasted victory in weeks, but something that might spark the Hurricanes is the fact that they are not eliminated from playoff contention. Normally, a prolonged losing streak would knock out most teams in a shortened year, but the rest of the bubble teams in the Eastern Conference (namely the Devils and Rangers) have also fallen on hard times recently and the Hurricanes can get themselves back in the mix by winning the majority of their remaining games.

Of course, this is much easier said than done because this team has been horrible for the last two weeks and it's gotten to the point where some fans, myself included, wonder if they will even win one more game this season. That was mainly just frustration talking on my part, but I think most would agree that the Hurricanes need to pull a complete 180 if they even want to think about making the playoffs. We've said the same things for the last 16 games and yet, the result is always the same and the team seems to find a more painful way to lose every night. Thus, there will be no more mentions about things like "playoff chances," "must-win games" and "games in hand" until the Hurricanes finally break the losing streak because it's all pointless until then.

The level of how much this team has struggled recently is kind of a mystery because for the majority of the season, the Hurricanes have been a good team. Even after this rough stretch, the Canes are still a top-ten team in Fenwick Close, meaning that they have been controlling the majority of even strength shot attempts when the score is close. That alone is surprising to me because if you take a look at my scoring chance recaps, Carolina has been on the losing end of that battle in most of their recent games. Part of the reason for it is that they've been failing to hit the net and not getting to the scoring areas. Those are definitely parts of the problem but I feel like there's more to this.

My reason for this suspicion is because the team has looked just plain bad in most of their games. Their underlying numbers suggest that we should believe that this streak should end and that it's only a minor bump in the road, but this isn't just a spell of bad luck. There's losing by getting a few unlucky bounces, and then there's losing by three or more goals on a nightly basis and getting outshot heavily while playing from behind. This is what has been happening to the Canes for most of this losing streak. 

The Hurricanes biggest weakness all season long has been their inability to play for a full-sixty minutes and that's never been more obvious than right now. They've had segments where they've played well over the last two weeks but for the most part, they've been playing some of their worst hockey in awhile and letting their opponents dictate the flow of the game. What exactly is the problem with this team, though? Is it the injuries that are keeping them down, or is the coaching staff "not doing enough" to get the most out of this squad? We'll explore all of these issues after the jump.

After losing six games in a row, what looked like a promising season for the Hurricanes is slowly falling apart at the seams. For a good part of the season, this team looked good enough to make the playoffs but a myriad of injuries happened followed by a brutal losing streak and now they are hanging onto dear life just to stay in the race. If the Hurricanes were to miss the playoffs, it will be the sixth time in the last eight years that they've been on the outside looking in and that's pretty troubling. I don't think this team had cup aspirations for this season because they do have a few missing pieces, but the end result of missing the playoffs for the sixth time in eight years still looks pretty bad.

How bad is it to miss the post-season this year, though? It's been kind of a strange season with a shortened schedule, so injuries and bounces/puck luck are going to have a bigger impact than usual. The Hurricanes have been on the wrong end of that scale more times than not this year and it's clearly at a low point right now with Justin Faulk on the shelf and the team being unable to buy a goal for whatever reason. In a full 82-game season, there is a chance that things like this even out but with only 48 games (and 17 remaining) this year, puck luck and a good streak can be the difference in a team making or missing the playoffs. Just ask the Anaheim Ducks.

This is why I feel that this season shouldn't be judged on results, even if failing to make the playoffs is a failure. Jim Rutherford made some big acquisitions this summer with Alexander Semin & Jordan Staal and while I think most fans are satisfied with what they've done, they are still going to be criticized because they couldn't bring the Hurricanes to the playoffs even in the lowly Southeast Division. Then again, we will only see 48 games from them by the end of the year, so is it really fair to close the book on these players based on that? Rebuilding this team was going to be a long-term process, so 48 games is very small in the big picture.

With that being said, a good question to ask is how far away this team is from being competitive? How much progress have they made so far this season and what else do they need to do to improve? The door is still open for them to make the playoffs this year, but it's going to take a long winning streak and I'm not sure if the odds are in the Hurricanes favor right now. Anyone who has watched the last six games will tell you that the team needs to be blown up, but the big picture suggests otherwise. Watching this team for the last two weeks has been borderline infuriating but at the same time you have to tell yourself that it's only six games and that doesn't undo an entire season.

I figure that this as good of time as any to review the Hurricanes season, see where they stand now and what they can do to make themselves better. Is there any hope left for this season and if not, what needs to be done to put them over the edge? I'll explore all issues after the jump.

It's been a pretty tough week for the Hurricanes. They lost all three of their games, one of them coming to the bottom-feeding Florida Panthers, gained only one point in the standings and now sit four points behind the Winnipeg Jets in the Southeast Division. To make matters even worse, the Washington Capitals have undergone a bit of a resurgence winning all four of their games and are now only two points behind Carolina for the second place spot. The breathing room that Carolina once had at the top of the division is now all but gone and things are going to be ultra tight from here on out. One advantage the Canes have right now is that they still have three games in hand over Winnipeg and Washington but those will not mean much if they don't take advantage of them.

A month ago, the Canes were in the driver's seat in the Southeast and all they needed to do was not completely bottom-out for them to remain in that spot. Since then, they've won only four of their last ten games, are currently stuck in a five-game losing streak and have injuries at key positions. My hopes for the Canes playoff chances are still cautiously optimistic because of what the bottom of the Eastern Conference looks like, but the margin for error right now is very, very slim.

Southeast Division Standings

55 Points

GR = Games Remaining, Pts = Points, Avail. = Points available, Needed = Points needed to 55, Point% = Percentage of games they need to earn points to get to 55, Div. = Divisional games remaining 

52 Points

I added another scenario this week since it looks like 55 points will be what clinches a playoff spot in the East while 52 points will give a team a good enough chance. Either way, Carolina and Winnipeg need earn points in the same percentage of their remaining games and the Hurricanes have a slight advantage thanks to three games in hand. Again, they are going to need to take full advantage of those three extra games for them to mean anything, especially their two upcoming matches against the Jets. The Canes are going to need to win at least 10-11 of their remaining games if they want to be in the playoffs, which is doable but they can not afford to go winless in another week.

Washington's recent run might make things exciting towards the end, but they will need to sustain this hot streak if they want to make it to the playoffs. That's tough to do no matter who you are, but the returns of Brooks Laich and MIke Green could help give them a boost at the right time. Tampa Bay appears to be all but eliminated barring a miracle run and Florida is pretty much done, as well. 

The room for error is low for the Hurricanes right now, but the numbers are slightly in their favor over Winnipeg.

The difference between Carolina and Winnipeg's underlying numbers are slim. Carolina is slightly a better team at even strength but you have to ask yourself how much of a difference that will make with only 18 games remaining. The better team doesn't always come out on top in a small sample size and that's especially true if they aren't getting any bounces in their favor. The Canes have actually been receiving better puck-luck than the Jets since they have high on-ice shooting and save percentages at even strength for the entire season. It's been the other way around lately and it's also possible that Carolina's even strength play and goaltending can decline due to the injuries to Justin Faulk and Dan Ellis respectively. The Canes still have three games remaining against Winnipeg and they need to win those to get back in the driver's seat in the Southeast. I'm not convinced that Winnipeg is a better team than Carolina (one hot streak does equate to a full season) but they are in a good position now and could end up winning the division if they beat them in their three remaining head-to-head matchups.

I have been tracking scoring chances for the Hurricanes for almost two years now and the way I usually present them in on here is in the form of plus/minus, showing how many chances the team is recording and giving up while a certain player is on the ice. The reason why I do this is to show how good or bad a player is at territorial play when it concerns creating and preventing scoring chances. There is obviously more to creating scoring chances than just the player who is taking the shot, which is why I look at on-ice differentials to see everyone who was involved in the play instead of who finished it.

However, it's possible that there could be some value into looking at who is creating the most scoring chances for each time. I've mentioned a few times recently that the Hurricanes scoring chance numbers are somewhat different from their shot differential stats. Going by just their Fenwick or Corsi numbers (shot attempt differentials), the Hurricanes look like a very good possession team, but they are barely breaking even in scoring chances (50.5% during even strength play). So while the Hurricanes are possessing the puck in the offensive zone and getting a lot of shots off, not enough of them have been scoring chances. It's been shown that Fenwick (5v5 shots on goal & missed shot differential) has a strong correlation with scoring chances, so it's possible that the Hurricanes scoring chance differential will improve as long as they continue to drive possession. We haven't been seeing it lately, but the numbers remain on the Hurricanes side as of right now. 

The whole issue of "shot quality" has been beaten to death by the hockey statistics community because it's something that has yet to be proven by anyone, but it appears to be an issue with the Hurricanes right now. No one has ever denied that some players have the ability to get into scoring areas better than others, but their ability to repeat it over a long period of time hasn't been proven. With that in mind, we're going to take a look at which players have been creating the most scoring chances for the Hurricanes this season, where their shots are coming from and if there is a relation between this and Carolina's recent offensive struggles.

Since the injury to Cam Ward, the Hurricanes have gone on a bit of a spiral. They've lost six of the nine games he has missed, totaling a record of 3-5-1 during that time. This has led some analysts to believe that Ward's injury is responsible for the Hurricanes recent tailspin when that is anything but true. Ward has started the majority of Carolina's games since 2006, so it is a little odd seeing some different names between the pipes, but both Dan Ellis and Justin Peters have been able to get the job done in his absence. Sure, they don't have his reputation and announcers are never going to say that one of these two goalies can "steal" games for your team, but it's hard to argue with their results thus far.

Despite their overall records being poor, both Ellis and Peters have given the Hurricanes more than solid goaltending since Ward's injury. In fact, they've been performing at a level that's well above average during even strength play. They've given up a couple of short-handed goals on breakaways as well as a few powerplay goals, which has driven down their overall save percentage, but as a whole, their play has been very strong. There is all this talk about how the Hurricanes "need Ward" to steal games for them when the two goalies they are icing right now are doing more than enough to keep the Hurricanes in games right now. Ellis has been especially good and while I wouldn't expect him to sustain that over a long period of time, he is probably good enough to be at least average (or even above average) for the rest of the season depending on how many games he has to start.

Ward obviously has a big role on the team as one of the leaders, but the Ellis/Peters have been more than adequate filling in for him this season and should not be blamed for the Hurricanes recent struggles. Things might be different if Ellis' leg laceration is serious enough to keep him out for a long period of time, but neither he or Peters has been the problem thus far. The bigger issue has been the play in front of the goaltenders.

Hurricanes Even Strength Stats Since Ward's Injury

GF/GA = Goals for/Goals against, SA/SF = Shots for/Shots against, CF/CA = Chances for/Chances against, CorF/CorA = Corsi For/Corsi Against

The spectacular goaltending from Ellis & Peters has kept the Hurricanes goal differential even, but they've been getting outshot and outchanced during five-on-five play. This emphasizes how much help they've been getting from their goaltending during this recent rough spell because things could be a lot worse. Compare Ward's numbers to his replacement's and it's hard to believe that things would be much different even if he was healthy. I know that Ward had a few great starts before his injury, but 3-4 great starts are not indicative of an entire season. Either way, I'm sure most would agree that the play in front of the goaltenders is what needs to change the most for Carolina.

The most interesting thing about their numbers here is that the Canes have been a good possession team, but it isn't resulting in them getting many shots or scoring chances. In past year's, it's been shown that possession leads to shots/scoring chances, so we could see more offense out of this team as long as they continue to generate zone time. However, even with that, the Hurricanes are still among one of the worst teams in the league at suppressing shots during even strength play and their goaltenders have done a pretty good job of keeping them in games despite that.

Yes, the Hurricanes have fallen on tough times with injuries this season and Ward's injury is one of the biggest, but saying that his absence is the cause for the team's struggles is ignoring the facts.

Even through the Hurricanes recent struggles, one thing the team has been doing well is controlling territorial play. They are a top-10 team in the NHL in controlling 5v5 shot attempts and are around the same area in close game situations. This suggests that the Hurricanes recent struggles are nothing they can't pull out of and they should be able to get back on track if they continue to control territorial play. However, something that I have been noticing is that while they are controlling the shots & territorial play, they are not getting the better end of scoring chances at even strength. Carolina has been outchanced in all of their last four games despite having more shot attempts than the opposing team, which makes me a little more skeptical about how they'll perform down the stretch.

One reason why the team's scoring chance percentage is lower than their possession rate could be due to how often they miss the net. I mentioned how this was a problem in the New Jersey game and it really goes beyond that. How many times this season have we seen the Hurricanes set up a good looking play in the offensive zone only to have a shot go just wide of the net or not get a shot away at all? Most Canes fans will answer "too many times." Some scoring chance counters do count missed shots as chances but I do not, so missed shots could be a reason why they are struggling in this department.

The question is how often to the Hurricanes miss the net compared to the rest of the league and who are the greatest offenders on the team? Thanks to Hockey Analysis, we can find out the answer to this.

If losing four games in a row wasn't bad enough, Hurricanes fans also received news that the team's best defenseman, Justin Faulk, will miss the next 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain. The Hurricanes have been destroyed by injuries for most of the season, but I have a feeling that Faulk's absence might have the most impact on the team. I know this sounds like an overreaction because Faulk is only 21 and is barely keeping his head above water territorially, but the role Faulk plays is one that's very, very hard to replace and I really don't know if anyone else on the roster can take over for him. 

This isn't quite as serious as the team losing three defensemen like they did for a portion of February, but it's still pretty serious when you look at how much ground Faulk covers compared to the rest of the defense corps. Even with this injury, the Canes still has a legit shot at the Southeast Division title and the playoffs, they will just need the rest of their defense corps to step up in a big way. Find out why after the jump.

The roller coaster ride that is the Carolina Hurricanes 2013 season has gone down yet another slope as the team has lost their last four game and are really starting to feel the heat of the Winnipeg Jets and the rest of the Eastern Conference. After their most recent showing against the Florida Panthers where they lost 4-1 and gave up 44 shots on goal, I asked the question of whether the Hurricanes were a bad team or a good team that is going through a rough patch. When you've played only 25-30 games, it opens the door for some crazy things to happen, but I think we've had enough games to say that the Hurricanes have been a decent team at even strength this year.

Even through the losing streak, the Hurricanes have been owning at least 50% of the shots and scoring chances. They aren't exactly dominating teams, though so their goal-rate has declined a little and will probably continue to throughout the rest of the season. They've been shooting at only 3.6% at even strength the last four games but have been getting stellar goaltending from Peters & Ellis, so their goal percentage has remained fine. I'd expect some regression to occur in both ways since they aren't going to stay that unlucky with shooting the puck and it's unlikely that Ellis/Peters can maintain a .930+ save percentage. 

This begs the question, though. How good are the Hurricanes? Is this a playoff team or a squad that is just going to finish outside of the playoffs? Compared to teams who are also in the race, the Canes appear to be good enough to make it in but that's not taking their terrible special teams into account.

Carolina's powerplay and penalty kill's success rates are in the bottom of the league and their PK is one of the worst in the NHL at suppressing shots. Their PK was playing well before the last four games, where their luck eventually ran out and now find themselves in the bottom-five again. Their powerplay is a bit of a different story because while it looks bad by the eye-test, Behind the Net suggests that they are getting unlucky while playing 5-on-4. They are a top-ten team at generating shots there, but just not finding the back of the net for whatever reason. Similar to what the Montreal Canadiens went through last year before they fired Jacques Martin.

Even as a numbers guy, I have to raise my eyebrows at the data here because the powerplay really has not looked good all season. While they are generating shots, they aren't getting many good chances and can barely contain the zone for more than 30 seconds. The data suggests that the Canes should remain patient here and wait for the goals to come but with only 19 games remaining left in the season, there isn't much time for them to just wait it out.

Then you have to factor in Justin Faulk's injury, which will sideline him for the next 2-4 weeks. Faulk may not be Carolina's best defenseman at controlling territorial play, but he logs a ton of minutes against other team's first lines. The fact that he is able to break even & drive the play in those situations is huge and I'm not sure if the team has another blue-liner who can replace him. Tim Gleason, Joni Pitkanen, Jamie McBain, Joe Corvo and Jay Harrison are capable of playing big minutes but none of them have been as good as Faulk when thrown into a shutdown role.

My mind says that it isn't time to panic because the Hurricanes have been a good team for most of this year, but the skeptic in me is very worried about how the next few weeks will go. They have some big games coming up against Winnipeg and the Faulk injury along with the poor special teams has me less optimistic than usual. People often underrated how big losing a defenseman can be, so these next 5-8 games could be very tough if the rest of the defense corps can't pick up the slack. It isn't time to panic just yet but we could be getting close pending how the next several games go.

The Hurricanes weren't even close to being in a "must-win" situation last week, but they did have a chance to take control of the Southeast Division by defeating Washington twice and Tampa Bay on the road. They ended up winning only one of those three games and have now let the surging Winnipeg Jets take over first place in the division. Some might say that this is a sign that the Hurricanes need to basically "win-out" the rest of the season in order to make the playoffs, but would you believe it if I said the Winnipeg Jets need to win more of their remaining games than the Hurricanes to get to 55 points? Because this is true.

Standings watching is hard to do at this time of the year and it can make people think a situation is far more serious than it appears. Yes, Winnipeg has one more point in the standings than the Hurricanes. They've also played two more games and still have to play Carolina three more times before the end of the season. If Carolina is still in the same position at that time of the year, then this is when we can talk "must-win" and start to panic. Now? Not so much. Carolina fans just need to hope that the last week was only a bump in the road for the team and that they can go better than .500 for the rest of the season.