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Who is getting the most offense from their blue line?

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Cory Lavellette of Canes Country mentioned on Twitter this morning that the Hurricanes have three defensemen with at least seven goals (Harrison, Faulk & McBain) and 29 goals from their blue-line this year. That's a pretty big surprise when you consider that their best offensive defenseman has been out for over half of the season, but it did get me thinking about where the Hurricanes rank in the NHL when it comes to the amount of offense they get from defensemen.

When you think of how much "offense" a team is getting, most will look at goals as a way to judge that. As most of you probably know by now, there is a lot of luck involved with scoring goals and that is especially true when it comes to defensemen, so we have to look at more data here. For this study, I went to Behind the Net Hockey's shot data page and looked at how many even strength goals, shots on goal and missed shots each team's defense had. I also included their average shooting distance and shooting percentage for good measure. I'm going to do this with only five-on-five data for now to weed out some of the noise that special teams create, but I will include some powerplay data along with it.

After the jump, we will take a look at how much offense the Hurricanes defensemen are really supplying and where they rank in the NHL.

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Carolina Hurricanes Scoring Chances Through February

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

"Progress" is a word that you will hear pundits say when referring to the Hurricanes for the rest of the year. A horrible start buried them from playoff contention and ever since Kirk Muller took over, the main thing we are looking for is effort and progress when it comes to the team's future. The effort has been there on most nights but progress was coming at a slow pace during both December and January. Last month, however, we saw the Canes on-ice performance take a few bigger steps forward. They went 6-1-4, have slowly climbed their way out of the cellar of the Eastern Conference and look like a better team. They also did not lose a game by more than a goal for the entire month. The question is, do the underlying numbers show that Carolina is improving?

Sort of. Their overall corsi tied and scoring chance percentage have made minimal improvements from the last month and they are still underwater in both categories. This is mostly because their possession metrics were so poor for the first few months but during February, their EV scoring chance percentage was 49.4%. That's actually a lot better than their performances in other months but still mediocre. Their corsi tied percentage, however, was a much stronger 51.7% during the 11 games they played in February. Considering that they were without Tuomo Ruutu for most of those games, that's very impressive.

So yes, Carolina is making progress and played some very good hockey this past month. I don't think that they are a good team yet but they are a hell of a lot better than they were in October and November. Muller has been able to get the most out of a lot of players on this team but I still think the Canes are missing a few pieces if they want to be a contending team next year. After the jump, we'll take a look at which players were controlling the scoring chances for Carolina.

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Hurricanes Weekly Report 2/20-2/26

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

In an enormous three game sample, the Hurricanes did the impossible and managed to outshoot and outchance their opponents at even strength. Before we start celebrating, I should also tell you that they won only one game this past week and lost the other two via the shootout. What went wrong? In cases like this, goaltending is usually the problem but not this week. Justin Peters was outstanding in all three of his starts and the only reason they got a point against Florida. The reason why the Canes went 1-0-2 last week was because they couldn't stay out of the box against Anaheim and played a lousy third period against Florida where they sat on a two-goal lead.

The team is still learning and we're seeing some improvements but they clearly have a long way to go before they're a good team again.

After the jump, we'll take a look at some individual standouts from the past week.

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Should the Hurricanes re-sign Bryan Allen?

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The situation that the Hurricanes have with their current free agents has been scrutinized to death over the past few weeks and we all got a little relief a couple of days ago when Tuomo Ruutu was re-signed to a new deal. There is still one important player whose future with the team is uncertain and that, of course, is defenseman Bryan Allen.

With names like Nicklas Grossman, Hal Gill and Pavel Kubina being traded away for 2nd round picks and more, it would make sense for Carolina to trade away Allen because his return will likely be high. He is better than all three of those defensemen and is younger than all of them except Grossman. If they are going for second round picks, Rutherford should be able to get that and more in return for Allen.

Although, is it possible that Rutherford sees Allen as an important part of the team going forward and doesn't want to trade him? Absolutely. Allen has been phenomenal in a shutdown role this year and has been one of the team's best defensemen. Carolina's playoff chances are bleak, which means the general rule of thumb is for the Canes to sell off pending free agents and other assets for draft picks and "future considerations." Jim Rutherford has done the opposite of that, signing both Tuomo Ruutu and Tim Gleason to new contracts. After the jump, I'll explain why Allen could be the next guy who is inked to a new deal.

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Hurricanes Weekly Report 2/13-2/19

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

It was a short week for the Hurricanes but a successful one as they went 2-1-0 and have only lost two games in regulation over the last month. The Canes playoff hopes might be all but finished, but it's nice to see the Canes win some more games and play better than they were at the beginning of the season. That said, the Canes were outchanced both overall and at even strength this past week and one of the main reasons they won two games was because of their special teams. They created 15 scoring chances on the powerplay, scored three times and had a shorthanded tally to boot. They also allowed three powerplay goals but two of them came in the game against Montreal and there was a span of five periods where they didn't allow a PPG.

With that in mind, let's break down some of the Canes individual standouts this week.

There's been some changes in the Canes' players roles and the biggest one is probably Jussi Jokinen receiving softer minutes. He's being sent out in the offensive zone more against weaker competition which is probably why he's seen his scoring pick up lately. Jamie McBain has also drifted to near below average territory in quality of competition which is a result of him playing on the third pairing with Jaroslav Spacek. Jiri Tlusty has actually seen his assignments get tougher as he's used in the offensive zone less than 50% of the time and he's around the same level as Eric Staal in quality of competition. Aside from taht, everything here looks like it has all season.

Top Performances

Eric Staal - The captain's "off-year" continues to look more like just a slow start. The bounces have been going in his favor for the last couple of months and he's been quietly accumulating points during that time, as well. Five points in three games for Staal and both his scoring chance and corsi rating led the team this week.

Jussi Jokinen - Easier zone starts have been a good thing for Jokinen as he netted a goal and added two assists this week. To make things even better, his scoring chance rate was 55.2% at even strength.

Justin Peters - Played remarkable against San Jose stopping 35 of 37 shots and did a solid job in relief duty against the Islanders, as well. Now if only we could stop allowing so many shots and chances when he he's in net...

Jamie McBain - McBain had an awful game against San Jose, but he played well against Montreal and the Islanders which is enough for me to give him a positive marker. Plus, he still recorded a point in that San Jose game. 

Jiri Tlusty - Tlusty was under .500 in terms of even strength scoring chances this week but he continued his seven game point streak with two goals and an assist. I'm not sure how long this pace will last but I'm fine with it continuing for as long as possible.

Under-Acheivers

Jay Harrison - The Canes were out-corsied by 13 at even strength when Harrison was on the ice, and he was also on ice for two powerplay goals against. Not the best week for him.

Patrick Dwyer - Had a nice assist on Brandon Sutter's goal against the Islanders but other than that, Dwyer produced little to no offense. He was on ice for only five Carolina scoring chances and 12 of the opponents. The one saving grace was that he wasn't on ice for an even strength goal against. Instead, it was two powerplay goals.

Jeff Skinner - He was poor against Montreal and San Jose but scored on a bit of a flukely goal against the latter. Still, the Canes were getting outshot and outchanced heavily when he was on the ice this week and his entire line looked off for whatever reason. He had a strong game against the Islanders but Skinner's defensive shortcomings were on full display the past week.

Other Notables:

Tim Brent - Did next to nothing at even strength but was on ice for all 10 of the Canes powerplay chances. Like I said, we've got a powerplay specialist here.

Anthony Stewart - 58.8% of the even strength chances went in the Canes favor when Stewart was on the ice last week, but most of that is from the Montreal game when he was placed on Staal's line. I will say that he and Derek Joslin could become Carolina's version of the Bash Brothers if they keep playing the way they have. Just hope some offense comes with all of that physicality.

Bryan Allen & Tim Gleason - Both had identical numbers and were outchanced at even strength this past week. They also were on ice for only one even strength goal. The PDO gods are kind to them.

Justin Faulk - He was even in terms of scoring chances but the Canes were getting possession moving in the right direction when Faulk was on the ice, which is great news. He also scored a beautiful powerplay goal Friday against San Jose.

Drayson Bowman - Responded from a poor game against San Jose with a monstrous game against the Islanders where he was on ice for six even strength chances. It's a shame that none of them went in because he could really use a goal right now.

Jaro Spacek - Was outchanced despite playing soft minutes but he scored two goals this week and that includes one against his former team. Hard to give a player who is scoring a negative marker.

Brandon Sutter - He had trouble containing the Tavares lines (then again, who didn't?) on Saturday night but played well against San Jose and Montreal. He also had nine shots on net and scored his 13th goal of the season this past week.

 

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Tim Brent and the powerplay

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

If you were to look at which Hurricanes forwards are creating the most scoring chances on the powerplay relative to their ice time, you'll see some familiar names. Jussi Jokinen, Eric Staal and Tim Brent. Wait, Tim Brent? The guy who we signed to center our fourth line and play on the penalty kill? Well, it's true. Brent trails only Jussi Jokinen in powerplay scoring chances per ice time with 9.64 chances per 15 mins. He only has a goal and an assist while playing with the man advantage but he's been creating scoring chances and has been on ice for eight powerplay goals. Muller's done some interesting things with the lineup and adding Brent to the powerplay is one that seems to be paying off.

Brent was used sparingly on the powerplay in Toronto last year so this isn't anything new to him but the general thought among Carolina fans that Brent's role would be limited to the fourth line and penalty kill. He's still the team's fourth line center but if you look at his special teams ice time, you'll notice that his powerplay and penalty kill usage have shifted in the opposite direction and the change started right around the time that Muller took over. The strange thing is that Brent has actually been very efficient on the powerplay. Remember, he is second among regular forwards in creating powerplay chances. This isn't what you'd expect from a defensive center who struggles to drive possession but for whatever reason, Brent is getting the job done on the powerplay.

What exactly is Brent doing to be so operative on the powerplay? The initial thought is that he would be a good body to create traffic in front of the net. While he can play that role, he's actually been working the point on most nights. That might come across as a surprise to some, but he's actually done a fine job in that position. Brent playing the point has helped the Canes with their zone entries on with the man advantage and he's been doing the little things that help make the Canes powerplay better.

After the jump, we'll jump into the film room and look at an example of how Brent's been helping the powerplay.

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Charlotte Forward Call-ups

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The injury bug hit Carolina again earlier this week when it was announced that Tuomo Ruutu would miss three weeks with an "upper-body injury." With the trade deadline approaching and the Hurricanes needing to make a decision on what they want to do with Ruutu in the future, this injury came at the worst time possible. Just to rub salt into the wound, Ruutu has been a key part of the team's first line for the past two months and replacing him with call-ups from the AHL is going to be a tough task.

This did get me thinking about something, though. Which call-ups from Charlotte have seen the most success this year and who is the most likely to land a permanent spot on the Canes? The injury to Ruutu opens up the door for a few players and I would imagine that a few other roster spots will open up after the trade deadline depending on what happens. Carolina has quite a few forward prospects with decent upsides, so using the rest of the season to see if they fit into the team's plans wouldn't be a bad idea.

As of right now, Drayson Bowman and Jerome Samson are the two call-ups who are going to be depended on to replace Ruutu's production and then some. My guess is that both of them will get a look on the first line during the next few weeks as an audition. Both have played in the top-six roles before, so playing with Eric Staal shouldn't be anything too foreign for them. Bowman has seen modest success with the Canes and Samson has only been here for four games this season so the jury is still out on him.

How do Bowman and Samson look outside of their point totals and what other forwards could we expect to see in Raleigh? We'll explore that after the jump.

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The successes and failures of the Canes PK

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

In my recap of Monday's win over the Montreal Canadiens, I said that the Canes had two of their worst performances on the penalty kill along with one of their best. Overall, they were burned for two powerplay goals in the second period, gave up four scoring chances and nine shots on about six and a half minutes on the PK, which is pretty bad overall. Most of that damage came in the first two periods, though. In the third period, the PK pulled a complete 180 and had two of their strongest penalty kill efforts of the season, one of which led to a shorthanded goal. The PK really stepped up when they were clinging onto a 4-3 lead and that counts for a lot. It was definitely a strange game and the Jekyll/Hyde like performance from the penalty kill just added to that. After the jump, we are going to take a look at what the Canes PK did right and wrong in Monday's game.

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Jiri Tlusty's breakout season

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

When Jim Rutherford traded Philippe Paradis for Jiri Tlusty back in 2009, not that much was made of it. Tlusty was known as one of the many "busts" of the Toronto Maple Leafs during the John Ferguson Jr. Era and it didn't look like he would be more than a fringe-NHL player. Fast forward to 2012 and Tlusty is on-pace for a career high 17 goals and has shown some of his first-round skill at times. What a lot of people are wondering is if Tlusty is finally coming to his own or if this year is a complete fluke. As of right now, things are still unclear.

It is easy to forget that Tlusty is only 23 and isn't near the prime of his career, so this season could be him continuing to progress as a player but he's been given a lot more opportunities to succeed this year than he has in the past. Tlusty's always had offensive talent but he's never been given a chance to show it during his tenure with Carolina. Before this year, he was usually put on the fourth line and used in defensive situations. Now, he is playing a lot more minutes and is currently slotted at left wing on the first line with Eric Staal and Tuomo Ruutu. It makes you wonder how much of Tlusty's success this year is related to him playing with stronger linemates because that usually helps a lot of players. If you look at Tlusty's most frequent linemates, you'll see that Staal is at the top of the list so Tlusty's breakout season could be a product of playing with the captain. However, we've also seen him make some fantastic individual efforts this year, so it's unfair to say that Staal is the only reason for Tlusty's success.

After the jump, we'll take a closer look at Tlusty's season and see what the reason is for his emergence. He's a RFA at the end of the year so finding out if this year is a complete fluke or not will be important when it comes time to re-sign him.

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The importance of Brandon Sutter

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

One of the bright spots for the Hurricanes this year has been Brandon Sutter's emergance as a shutdown defensive center but I still hear hockey pundits talk about how he has been a "disappointment." Whenever I hear that, I can't help but feel that these "experts" aren't watching the Hurricanes and are only looking at Sutter's 22 points in 54 games to judge his performance. What they don't see is all of the other contributions he makes to the team.

If you go by simple raw data, Sutter doesn't appear to be that impressive. He has only 12 goals, 22 points and a 44.6% scoring chance rate, but the truth is that Sutter has been one of the Canes most important players this year. Sutter's defensive game and responsibility has improved by a lot and you have to look deep into certain stats to see this.

We'll explore this more after the jump.

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