Back in February of 2009, Jim Rutherford made one of his better trades in recent memory when he acquired Jussi Jokinen from Tampa Bay in exchange for Wade Brookbank and Josef Melichar. Jokinen was having the worst season of NHL career during that time and had only 16 points in 46 games with the Bolts. In each of the three years before that, Jokinen was a 40+ point player and an ace performer in shootouts, who could possibly give the Hurricanes forward corps a significant boost heading toward the playoffs. Rutherford decided to take a low-risk gamble by acquiring a talented, but under-performing player for two guys who weren't in the NHL the next season and it's fair to say that this move has worked out for him.

Since the Canes acquired him, Jokinen went on to play a huge role in the Hurricanes playoff run in the year they acquired him, score 30 goals the next season and be a key player of their top-six. However, last season was seen as a bit of a disappointment for him by some fans. He scored only 12 goals, which is his lowest full-season total since arriving in Carolina and had only 26 points at even strength. Compare that Jokinen's scoring rates during his previous two years with the Canes and you'll notice a pretty big drop-off. He went from scoring at least 2 even strength points per 60 minutes to not even scoring at a top-six rate. That's quite a decline, but how much of it was on him?

While Jokinen is a legit top-six player, he may have deceived a lot of people into thinking that he is better than he actually is with his 30-goal campaign in 2009-10. I'm not saying that Jokinen doesn't have solid goal-scoring talent, but when a player whose previous career high was 17 goals scores 30 in a season, you start to raise some eyebrows on what led to him having such a good year. Call me crazy, but I'm willing to bet that his 18.7% shooting percentage at even strength and 20.5% shooting percentage on the powerplay had a role in it. There are some players who are able to sustain shooting percentages that are above average, but when over 18% of the total shots a player takes end up in the back of the net, it usually means that he benefitted from a lot of good luck and is prone to see his goal/point total come crashing back down to Earth the next year.

Jokinen's shooting percentage would indeed fall the next season and it continued to decline the year after that to the point where he shot at only 8.5% at even strength and 10.2% overall. Thus, simple regression resulted in Jokinen going from being a "30-goal scorer" to having only 7 even strength goals two years later. Is what Jokinen showed last season his true talent level, though?

The thing with Jokinen is that he has never been that much of a goal scorer and most of his points usually come from assists, so it wouldn't surprise me if he never scores more than 19 goals again. That being said, he was a victim of some poor shooting luck at even strength last season, so I think he could be due for a rebound there but it won't be anything extreme. There is also talk of Jokinen returning to the wing this year, which is probably the only way he stays in the top-six with both Staal brothers now centering the first and second lines respectfully.

I mentioned in Jiri Tlusty's projection that he and Jussi Jokinen could be battling it out for the left wing spot in the top-six but I think Jokinen will ultimately win the job and stay there for the majority of the season. Now, if he does stay in the top-six, will he be in for a better season or will his numbers continue to regress? We'll explore this after the jump.

Jiri Tlusty might be the most difficult forwards on the team to project. He had a breakout season last year and some may think that the sky is the limit for him, but there are a lot of factors that make the upcoming season very hard to predict for him. Tlusty's break-out season was the result of him receiving top-six minutes, most of which were spent playing on a line with Eric Staal, and some generous shooting luck to go along with it. This isn't suggesting that his breakout season was a fluke, but it does make you wonder how Tlusty will perform next season if he is bumped out of the top-six, which could happen this year.

On top of that, there isn't much that is known about Tlusty and what his "true talent" is. He has been in the league for five seasons, but last year was the only season where he played over 60 games. This was also the first season where he began to play significant ice-time instead of being used as a bottom-six plug as he often was in the past. Tlusty also played about 42% of his total career ice time in last season alone, so it's hard to get the full scope of what his true talent is going by what he has done so far because there is such little data to base this upon.

Tlusty's strong scoring numbers in the AHL (120 points in 130 games) have to give you some confidence as far as his top-six ability is concerned, but whether or not he will get the minutes to produce at a top-six level next year is a good question. This is why I could see Tlusty's numbers go either way next season. On one hand, he may bulid off last season and have close to a 40 point campaign if he stays in the top-six but he could also see no improvement in his boxcar numbers if he gets relegated to a third-line role for most of the year and plays fewer minutes. Tlusty hasn't done anything to "lose" his top-six spot but it's really hard to slot him in there over Jokinen at the moment and he may have to end up earning his minutes like he did last season.

There are no guarantees with this year's Canes squad and Tlusty's spot in the lineup is one of the many things that seems to be up in the air. Personally, I see no issue with him being on the third line with Jeremy Welsh & Chad LaRose, but things could end up being very different if the team wishes to keep Jussi Jokinen at center, effectively slotting Tlusty in the top-six with some of the best linemates he has ever played with. His numbers this year could go in either direction depending on how Kirk Muller wants to use him, so that's going to make this a very tough projection to nail down. 

Despite that, we are going to do our best to predict the upcoming season for Tlusty after the jump.

The Hurricanes are a team that has often been mentioned in trade rumors for the last few years and one of the most frequent names that often pops up on rumor sheets is their rugged forward Tuomo Ruutu. This reached an all-time high last season when the Hurricanes appeared to be sellers at the trade deadline and had to make a decision on what they wanted to do with Ruutu going forwarrd since his contract expired at the end of the season. Since it was a sellers market and Ruutu was having a good season, trading him would have made sense, but Jim Rutherford elected to re-sign the big Finn for four years instead.

This move was met with mixed reactions. On one hand, you had those who were glad that Rutherford decided to retain one of the team's best forwards at a reasonable term length. Ruutu had just turned 29 last February, so he has at least a few years left of good play left in him and shouldn't experience a huge decline until his new contract expires when he turns 33. This was also a way of Rutherford showing that he is willing to make an effort to retain his key players and not lose him for nothing through free agency. It wouldn't surprise me if he was still feeling the burn of letting Erik Cole walk only for him to have a career season in Montreal and didn't want to have another incident like that. 

On the flip-side, Ruutu isn't in the prime of his career anymore as most player's scoring numbers begin to tail off when they enter their 30's, and the Hurricanes may not get good value out of what they are paying Ruutu if his production takes a steady decline. Rutherford also paid a big price to keep Ruutu in Carolina as he will be paid $19 mil. over the four years of his contract, equating to a cap hit of $4.75 mil. per season. Under the previous salary cap, this isn't anything deterimental but it could end up looking bad if the cap goes down a significant amount. It's also worth mentioning that Ruutu hasn't been a dominant player at even strength in two years, which is a major concern when it comes to predicting his future success and whether or not he will be able to give the Canes good value for what they are paying him.

The emergence of Jeff Skinner and off-season additions of Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin will mean that there will be less pressure on Ruutu to be one of the offense's main catalysts, but the Hurricanes are still going to want him to produce at a top-six rate since he is capable of doing so. His 34 points in 72 games last season is a bit disappointing but he was on quite a tear from December until he got injured in mid-February, when his season was derailed a bit. The Hurricanes will need Ruutu to play more like he did before the injury if they want to get the most out of his contract, but they are also going to need for him to contribute in other areas, ones that won't show up on the scoresheet.

With the Hurricanes top-six undergoing a bit of a makeover this off-season, some players are going to have adjust to different roles and Ruutu could end up being one of them. What impact will this have on him and what kind of scoring production should we expect from Ruutu this season? Find out after the jump.

Ever since the Penguins drafted him in 2006, there have always been high expectations for Jordan Staal and so far, he has lived up to most them. After debuting in the NHL as a teenager, Staal has gone on to establish himself as one of the better two-way centers in the NHL and he has been a key part of the Pittsburgh Penguins' near dominant possession game over the last few seasons. Staal is a smart and fundamentally sound player whose overall game is still developing and getting better every year.

The one part of his game that hasn't quite lived up to some people's expectations, however, is his offensive upside. While he has put up good numbers throughout his entire career, he has yet to score over 50 points in a season and has been more lauded for his defensive strengths rather than his offensive skills. However, there are some people who believe that Staal still has a lot of untapped potential and could fit on most team's first lines if he's given the chance. He has spent almost all of his career playing on the same team as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who are two of the best centers in the NHL and it's resulted in Staal being the team's third line center for the most part. Despite that, Staal has been able to have a few 20 goal/40 point seasons in this role and it has a lot of people believing that he can accomplish a lot more if he's given more ice-time.

There is definitely some untapped offensive potential with Staal when you look at his scoring rates over the years. He has scored at a top-six rate at even strength in each of the last five years and has produced over 2 points per 60 minutes in three of the last five. He also managed to do all of this despite taking the toughest assignments the Penguins coaching staff could throw at him, so there is evidence that Staal could possibly do more if he's given a more offensive role. I don't think Staal is going to automatically turn into a first line center if he's given top minutes but he has posted great results with tough assignments on one of the best team's in the NHL for the last few years and that makes you wonder what he can do in a bigger role.

Jim Rutherford gave up a lot to get Staal on the Hurricanes, so there are going to be some very high expectations for him this season. Some might expect him to top 60+ and anything less than that would be a disappointment because of his price tag. One thing to remember is that Jordan Staal is a long-term investment for this club, as indicated by the 10-year contract Rutherford signed him to, and Staal may not be the first line center right off the bat but he will be eventually. It's also worth mentioning that a lot of Staal's contributions don't show up on the score-sheet, so he could end up being worth the cost even if his point total doesn't indicate it.

With that in mind, let's take a look at what we can expect from Jordan this season and what the odds are of him having the "breakout" year that most are hoping for.

Outside of what happened in the state of Minnesota, the most talked about signing this off-season was the Hurricanes inking Alexander Semin to a one-year deal worth $7 mil. Despite the high salary, this is one of the safest bets the Hurricanes could have made because the team was in need of a top-line winger and Semin had arguably the highest ceiling of any player on the market. Signing him for one year is a good risk to take for a team like Carolina, who were using third liners and AHL call-ups as part of their first line on a regular basis last season. The question now is what kind of numbers will Semin put up in Carolina and will it be in line with his career production?

So far, the expectations I've seen for Semin in Carolina have been all over the place. There are some who think that playing on a line with one of the Staal brothers will help Semin find his way back to being a 30 goal/70 point player while others have said that he may grow complacent and see his production continue to decline as it has the last few seasons with the Capitals. Hell, I've even heard some people say that he may reach 40 goals, which is probably the most unlikely of the scenarios given how tough of an accomplishment that is.

Semin is probably one of the more difficult players to project on the Hurricanes because we don't know what kind of ice time he will get next season and what kind of situations he'll be used in since line combinations are up in the air right now. My initial thought is that Semin will spend most of the year on Eric Staal's line and get a bit of a zone start push thanks to Jordan Staal & possibly the third line, but he did regularly play tough minutes before last season with the Caps, so he doesn't need to be protected. There is also the question of how much powerplay time he will get and whether or not he will kill penalties, both of which will have a direct impact on his goal total.

The Canes are going to be spending $7 mil. on Semin next season, so there is no doubt that they will try to get the most out of him but it's still tough to predict how much he will produce next season. We're going to try to do it anyway after the jump.

Since the lockout has put training camp and all other NHL related activities on hold, some might say that doing projections is pointless right now because the status of the 2012-13 season is up in the air. I will continue to remain optimistic about this situation and say that we will see the NHL resume before the end of the calendar year and since there will be a season, there is no harm in predicting the upcoming year and seeing what kind of production we will get from some of Carolina's players. Over the last week, I went over some of the team's historically similar players based on their yearly scoring patterns but that was only phase 1 of this process. Now is the time where I'll begin to go over every player on the roster and predict their goal/point total using factors such as ice time, teammates, shot rates, shooting percentages and many other factors.

You may remember that I did this same thing last season but it wasn't quite as thorough as I wanted and most of my projections were based on their historically similar players. This year, I will be putting less stock into those numbers and basing it more on the other factors that I listed above. I will also be making use of this chart derived from Eric T. at Broad Street Hockey, which breaks down the different factors that make up a player's point total and applying it to the Carolina players in question. This should help us come up with some more educated guesses about the Canes this season.

To start off this project, we will look at the Carolina captain and top player Eric Staal, who is coming off his seventh consecutive season of recording at least 70 points or more. Despite Staal having his lowest goal total since his rookie season (24), he led the Canes in both goals and points and was the key driving force behind the offense for most of the season. He got off to a very rough start at the beginning of the year, having only 12 points in the first 26 games of the year, but he exploded in the second half and had 45 points in 42 games from January onward. The way Staal finished the year has a lot of people wondering what he COULD have done if he had stayed hot the entire year, while others are wondering if his falling scoring rate is the sign of Staal being on the decline. 

Staal is only 27 years old and while his scoring rate is declining from the level it once was, his offensive numbers have still been very good on a year-to-year basis and he still plenty of good years left ahead of him. Is he going to hit the 70 point mark again this year, though? We know that he'll get plenty of opportunities to do so because he will play on the top line all year and play on both special teams units. Having some stronger linemates will also help matters as Staal looks to have a more consistent showing this year.

There are many who say that Staal has another 80+ point season left in him and that the goals will come easier to him this season now that he has some better forward support. I suppose that is a fair assumption but a player putting up 80 points is so rare in the NHL these days (only 9 did it last season) that I have trouble thinking that Staal will get to that plateau just because the Canes improved their forward corps. That and the season is likely going to be shortened so an 80+ point season would be nearly impossible.

After the jump, we will take a look at what some realistic expectations for Staal next season and get a better idea of what kind of numbers he will put up.

To close out our look at Rob Vollman's historical projections for the Carolina Hurricanes players, we are going to look at what might be in store for some of the fringe players in the organization who may see some time with the big club. By my definition a "fringe" player is either a prospect or younger player who has a chance to make the team out of camp but could easily spend the year in the AHL, or a player who is likely going to spend most of the year in the AHL but might be called up for a few games. The Canes had a lot of these types of players see some time with the big club last year and almost all of them were given a chance to succeed once Kirk Muller took over.

Throughout the second half of last season we saw the likes of Drayson Bowman, Jerome Samson and Zac Dalpe get their chances in the top-six and while none of them offered a long-term solution, they each showed some potential last season and could be in the hunt for a roster spot whenever the season starts. Not much is to be expected from them when they do get their call-ups though because they are all unproven talents at this point and we have yet to see what they can do with a full-season's work in the NHL. Bowman might be the only exception because he performed well in a third-line role last season and seemed to adapt to the NHL much better than any of the other AHL tweeners in the organization. Still, he is largely unproven and the expectations for him won't go up until he is able to stick in the NHL for more than 69 games over three seasons, and the same goes for everyone else in the system.

With all that being said, let's take a look at some of these players and what we can expect from them this year based on their historical similarities. Most of these player's main goal is to make the team and be able to stick around for the entire year so we will be looking for that rather than just goals and points.

When you're making player projections, defensemen are usually the most difficult to predict because their point totals tend to be somewhat random on a year-to-year basis, especially those who don't get powerplay time. Defensemen tend take a lot of shots but a lower proportion of them actually get on goal compared to most forwards which leads to a small sample size and an unproportionate amount of goals being scored across seasons. The number of points a defenseman has is also somewhat dependent on the group of forwards playing in front of him because Tim Gleason is going to end up with more points in a season if he is playing behind Eric Staal's line than he will playing behind Tim Brent. That's just the way it is.

Regardless of that, we are going to continue to look at Rob Vollman's historical projections and see what they have in store for the Hurricanes' defensemen. The Canes didn't have one defenseman score over 10 goals or 30 points last season and their highest scoring defenseman was Jamie McBain with only 27 points. One would think that Joni Pitkanen being in the lineup for the entire year would change this but it is what it is. Will the Hurricanes get more offense from their blue line in the upcoming season? According to Vollman's projections, there are a few blue-liners who could potentially have a very good season offensively.

We will look at the individual cases after the jump.

Yesterday we took a prolonged look at the historical projections for the Carolina Hurricanes top-six forwards to get an idea of what to expect from them in the upcoming season and today, we will do the same for the team's other forwards. As of right now, many of the Hurricanes bottom-six forward spots are unknown and it's even tougher to figure out who will make the team when you consider that there will be no training camp or pre-season. We know that players like Chad LaRose, Jiri Tlusty, Patrick Dwyer, Tim Brent and maybe a couple others are likely guaranteed spots on the team but there are still a few fringe players who could end up spending most of the year in the AHL. The good news is that Rob Vollman has historical projections available for any player who has played at least one game in each of the last two seasons*, so most of Carolina's roster is in the database.

Remember, these historical projections are meant to set a high and low point for the upcoming season and are not a final projection, so it's important to take that into consideration when you go over the numbers. This is just the first step in setting my personal player projections and those should be up sometime later in the month. These projections are meant to give us a general of what to expect and set the high and low points.

After the jump, we will look at the projections for the team's depth forwards.

* Jeremy Welsh, Justin Faulk, Riley Nash and a couple others are not projected because of this.

Mid-September is usually the time of the year when I post my projections for the Hurricanes players in the upcoming season, but with the lockout now in full effect, it looks inevitable that the NHL season will begin later than the planned October 11th start date. Given that, it may seem pointless to do projections now since no one knows when the season will start or whether or not there will be any NHL season at all. Call me an optimist, but I believe that we will have an NHL season this year and there is never any harm in predicting how the season will go and how certain players will perform. With that being said, the lockout is going to have some factors that will have an impact on how the season goes.

First off, the season is going to be shortened and while you can make the argument that the regular 82-game NHL season is too long, having a season of 40-48 games can lead to some crazy things happening. A good or bad couple of weeks for a team could end up being the difference in them making the playoffs or not. We have also seem some players already sign contracts to play in other leagues and that could affect what kind of season they have once the NHL resumes if they were to suffer an injury while playing overseas. Not having training camp might also put some players a step behind if they choose not to play anywhere during the lockout, so they might have a bit of rink rust coming into the season.

Whenever the season does start, I'm willing to bet that there will be plenty of strange occurrences and we could see some new playoff teams along with a few players having very surprising years offensively. It's hard to predict who those said players will be right now but we should have a better idea of it whenever they announce a start date for the season. Until then, the best we can do is use the data from past seasons to make informed guesses about what kind of offensive production we might see from certain players this year. The raw numbers are obviously going to be off if the season is shortened, but this is exactly why most statisticians look at rates and ratios instead. Those usually give us a better idea of a player's production anyway.

The extended off-season also allows us to put more time into our projections and come up with some more sophisticated methods of predicting the upcoming season. If you remember from last season, I based most of my projections on historical similarities between players, what kind of minutes they were expected to play and how much shooting luck they had in previous seasons. This year, I'll be using a similar method but I will be taking more consideration to factors such as shot rates, shot locations and quality of teammates than I did last season. The scoring chance data I collected from last season along with Greg Sinclair's Super Shot Search will help make these projections as thorough as possible.

However, before I begin my projections, let's take a look at what some other systems are predicting for the Hurricanes this season. A good starting point would be to look at some historical comparisons derived from Rob Vollman of Hockey Abstract*. This system follows a similar method to what I did last year where it goes through years of NHL seasons to find players with similar scoring patterns and uses it as a way to find out what the minimum and maximum expectations are for a certain player. This isn't an absolute, final projection but it serves as a good starting point for prognosticating the upcoming season.

Since there is a lot of data to break down, what I'm going to do is go through the projections piece by piece based on what kind of roles the Carolina Hurricanes players are expected to have in the upcoming season, starting today with the top-six.

*If you want to take a look at Vollman's projections for every player, it is available for free on his web site here.