Carolina Hurricanes Scoring Chances Through March

The Hurricanes may have finished March with a "winning" record of 7-6-3 but they did not play their best hockey this month at all. Out of the 16 games they played, the Canes outchanced their opponent at even strength a grand total of four times and controlled roughly 45.6% of the scoring chances during five-on-five play. A few awful games are bound to happen with those kind of numbers and the Canes had their fare share of blow-ups in March. They were shutout twice, were blown out by Columbus and surrendered a 4-1 lead against the Red Wings in a game where they were outchanced 23-9 at even strength.

They had a nice four game winning streak which gave fans some false hope of a miracle playoff push but the writing was on the wall that this team was about to go through another rough patch and it happened. The Hurricanes aren't doing enough at either end of the rink to be a competitive team and things seemed to hit a wall this month as they gave up almost 40 more chances at even strength than they created. Hence why I think the team's defensive play is something that needs to be heavily addressed this off-season.

You'll notice that in the individual player reports, that a lot of the team's top offensive contributors are giving up way too much in their own end. We'll look at those numbers after the jump.

Forwards

Player	EV TOI	5v5 SCF	5v5 SCA	EV CF/15	EV CA/15	SC%	Ozone%	Feb Diff.
Drayson Bowman	441.82	128	110	4.346	3.735	0.538	55	-0.02
Jeff Skinner	879	285	249	4.863	4.249	0.534	55	0.003
Jussi Jokinen	991.05	284	264	4.298	3.996	0.518	52.8	-0.013
Chad LaRose	881.08	264	248	4.494	4.222	0.516	44.8	0.004
Eric Staal	1244.3	370	361	4.460	4.352	0.506	50.2	-0.009
Tuomo Ruutu	933.38	260	264	4.178	4.243	0.496	53.1	-0.009
Jiri Tlusty	975.85	251	264	3.858	4.058	0.487	48.3	-0.013
Average						0.482
Jerome Samson	176.3	49	54	4.169	4.594	0.476	55.3	-0.03
Brandon Sutter	1116.3	256	317	3.440	4.260	0.447	35.2	-0.004
Patrick Dwyer	914.35	171	218	2.805	3.576	0.44	37.8	-0.011
Andreas Nodl	512.3	109	142	3.191	4.158	0.434	44.4	0.019
Derek Joslin	397.75	76	102	2.866	3.847	0.427	58.2	N/A
Tim Brent	662.52	104	161	2.355	3.645	0.392	48.4	-0.006
Anthony Stewart	576.42	97	157	2.524	4.086	0.382	56.5	-0.017

EV TOI = even strength time on ice, 5v5 SCF = Scoring chances for, SCA = scoring chances against, CF/15 = scoring chance for per 15 minutes, CA/15 = scoring chances against per 15 minutes, SC% = scoring chance percentage, OZone% = offensive zone start percentage, Feb Diff = scoring chance percentage difference from February

Just about everyone who has played in the top-six are controlling at least 50% of the even strength scoring chances, with the exceptions being Tuomo Ruutu and Jiri Tlusty. Both of whom saw their play decline a little bit during March and Ruutu's fall-off is a lot more obvious than Tlusty's. Ruutu had only three assists in 12 games during March and saw a reduction in ice-time in a few games while Tlusty had three goals and eight points in 13 games. Tlusty is having a great season but his game away from the puck needs a lot of work and his defensive shortcomings were exposed big time in March. Both of these players were above the 50% mark in scoring chances last month and now they have dropped below it. The good news is that they are still performing above the team average.

Jeff Skinner is still leading the way in most categories and he didn't quite have the outbreak I was expecting, but he was still very solid in March with 10 points in 14 games. He was also able to improve his scoring chance percentage from the previous month, which a lot of the other forwards failed to do. One of the most notable is Skinner's linemate Jussi Jokinen, who had 12 points in March but his underlying numbers fell off a little bit. Despite that, he is still the best top-six forward in defensive play as he is giving up fewer chances relative to his ice time than anyone else. The protected minutes he's been receiving have helped him with that, though.

The team's best defensive forward is still Patrick Dwyer who had a rough month, but he is still playing stronger in his own end than any other forward right now. It is odd to see how he is constantly outperforming Brandon Sutter in chances against because the two of them always play together at even strength.

Chad LaRose had a good month and he's actually been on ice for roughly the same amount of scoring chances as Eric Staal. LaRose always seems to be one of the team's better players at getting shots and chances on net so this isn't really surprising, especially after you factor in that the two played on a line together for most of March. However, LaRose and Staal are giving up A LOT of chances, too.

It was really nice to see Drayson Bowman score a few goals this month as he's been doing all the right things and getting the puck into the opponent's zone but he just couldn't seem to catch a break. That all changed in March as he scored four goals and continued to be one of the team's better players at generating scoring chances. He could be here to stay next year if he has a good enough camp. The future for the other Charlotte Checker alum, Jerome Samson does not look nearly as bright, unfortunately. He was sent down earlier in the month and it's easy to see why. He got soft minutes and was getting outchanced just about every game. That's not the way to go if you want to make an impact.

The fourth line sits at the bottom of the pile in scoring chances and all of their numbers are pretty atrocious. Stewart is getting some of the easiest zone starts on the team and can barely keep the puck in the offensive zone. He is also giving up twice as many chances as he is creating, which is why he barely gets more than 6 minutes per game nowadays. Brent isn't much better but he's has been okay defensively when you factor in his zone starts and Joslin was almost as bad as Stewart.

Defense

Player	EV TOI	5v5 SCF	5v5 SCA	EV CF/15	EV CA/15	SC%	Ozone%	Feb Diff.
Jaroslav Spacek	588.4	142	113	3.62	2.88	0.557	58.6	0.017
Jamie McBain	1150.5	316	314	4.12	4.09	0.502	50.8	0.006
Average						0.482
Jay Harrison	1163.5	327	354	4.22	4.56	0.48	50.4	-0.003
Justin Faulk	1086	319	346	4.41	4.78	0.48	52.1	-0.009
Bryan Allen	1300.8	288	316	3.32	3.64	0.477	40.8	-0.021
Joni Pitkanen	426.18	112	129	3.94	4.54	0.465	46.5	N/A
Tim Gleason	1372.2	313	379	3.42	4.14	0.452	39.6	-0.006
Bobby Sanguinetti	25.47	3	7	1.77	4.12	0.3	50	N/A

Bryan Allen's play has dropped off so much lately, it seems. He's been making a lot more mistakes in his own end and it clearly shows here as he's now below the team average in scoring chance percentage. I have to think that the mileage is starting to pile up on him because he's been playing against opposing team's top lines all season and passing with shining colors until the last two months. Gleason's play has been steady throughout the year but Allen's has taken a sharp decline.

Justin Faulk and Jay Harrison are right at the team average and you can see that Faulk's play in his own end is still a work in progress. Muller has lightened his workload at even strength a little bit, but he is still just a kid and is adjusting to the NHL. It is pretty amazing that he is outperforming the rest of the defense offensively at such a young age, though. I am still not sure if Harrison would be a top-four defender on a good team but he has made impressive strides from last year.

The only two defensemen who are performing above the team average are Jaro Spacek and Jamie McBain, and the latter is barely keeping his head above the 50% mark. His minutes have gotten tougher since Joni Pitkanen's return, so it's good to see him play decently while not being protected like he has been for most of 2012. Speaking of Pitkanen, he's gotten off to a bit of a rocky start since his return. Giving up way too much in his own end for my liking, but that's with his data from the beginning of the year factored in.

Like I said, the team's overall defensive play needs a lot of work....