When looking at shot-based stats like Fenwick, Corsi and Scoring Chances, it is always important to take context into the situation. I often emphasize this point when I go over the numbers for individual players but it is also important to take them into account at the team level. Individually, context is applied by looking at where a player began most of his shifts or what kind of situations he was utilized in but on a team level, we look for score effects.
The idea behind score effects is that a team is more likely to play a passive style while protecting a lead and will be more aggressive if they are trailing. This is especially true for games that are blowouts since there usually isn't much reason for a team to be constantly attacking the offensive zone when they are already leading by 3-4 goals. Thus why most stat-minded bloggers look at what a team's underlying numbers are with the score tied or in close game situations. Roughly 75% of even strength hockey is played when the score is close, so weeding out score effects is a good way to see how a team performs during the most important parts of the game.
Eliminating score effects for Corsi and Fenwick is easy using Vic Ferrari's Time On Ice site, but scoring chances are still a work in progress because there are only a handful of teams that are being tracked. After the jump, we will look at the Hurricanes' even strength numbers during each game state.no comments