Even though the Hurricanes won last night's game in overtime, their performance reminded me a lot of how they played last year. Not only were they heavily outshot, but the Senators had control for most of the game and the Hurricanes were forced to play in their own end more often than they would have liked. They were able to stay in the game and force overtime thanks to great goaltending along with some solid special teams play. Like I said last night, it's always nice to edge out a win when you don't play your best hockey but let's hope the Hurricanes don't make a habit out of it. This is the first time the Hurricanes have resembled last year's squad and they were facing an Ottawa team that has been a powerhouse at even strength, so I will hold off on the worrying for now and just enjoy the win.

It's also worth noting that while the Hurricanes gave up a lot of shots, they weren't destroyed when it came to how many chances they were producing compared to Ottawa.

The Hurricanes have been a pretty decent team at even strength so far this year but their underlying numbers are skewed heavily due to the fact that they have been forced to play from behind in all but two of their games. This is partially the reason why they have outchanced their opponents in every game this year and why most of their players have very positive underlying numbers. The usual solution to these problems is to only include stats from when the game was tied but Carolina's games have been tied for maybe a combined 60 minutes at the most, which is obviously too small of a sample size to make a judgment call on. We should find out just how "good" this team is at even strength in the upcoming weeks when they get more games under their belt.

Unfortunately, last night's game against the Toronto Maple Leafs probably did nothing but make their underlying numbers even more strange. The Hurricanes were dominated for the first 20 minutes and outchanced 11-4 by Toronto but they went into the locker room only down 1-0 thanks to the stellar goaltending of Cam Ward. They managed to pull a complete 180 in the second period and held the Leafs to only two scoring chances while producing 10 of their own. They ended up being outchanced 21-20 by the end of the game but that's actually pretty impressive when you consider how bad they played in the first period.

Ward's goaltending was able to bail out the Hurricanes after a bad first period but the team did a nice job of responding and taking over the game after that.

Once again, the Hurricanes were involved in a game where they were playing from behind and ended up having a huge lead in shots and scoring chances partially because of it. Don't get me wrong, Carolina having an advantage in shots and scoring chances for yet another game is a good thing in the long-run, but it's still very early in the year and I'm not sure how much stock can be put in these numbers since the Hurricanes are being forced to play catch-up in almost every game they've played in. The good news is that Carolina had the slight upper-hand at even strength when the game was close and that should lead to more wins down the line. The bad news is that it may not matter as much if their special teams continue to be as bad as they've been this season.

Even strength play is often what leads to more wins but it's worth noting that there are more penalties being called this year, so special teams play could have a bigger impact than usual. Not being able to score on the powerpaly or kill penalties could be the difference in a team making the playoffs and the Hurricanes are currently on the wrong end of that.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump.

Carolina's 1-0 win over the Ottawa Senators might be seen as another game that goaltender Dan Ellis "stole" for them because he recorded a shutout and the Hurricanes were outshot at even strength. While both of those points are true, the Hurricanes defense also deserves a lot of credit for Ellis' shutout as they did a fantastic job of not allowing many scoring opportunities against to the Senators. Carolina was outshot at even strength, yes but they had the upper-hand in scoring chances with a 17-13 advantage during five-on-five play and 23-16 overall. Don't get me wrong, Ellis was good when he needed to be and he came up big a few times in the third period, but this was a great defensive effort from the Hurricanes. The Canes offense also did their part in creating a healthy number of scoring chances, too but they had a tough time trying to solve Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson and could only get one past him.

That one goal ended up being enough to win the game, though and the Hurricanes did their part in protecting the lead so there won't be many people complaining about their performance last night. The only thing that needs to drastically improve is the powerplay, which we will discuss and more after the jump.

Last night's 5-3 loss to the Boston Bruins was easily the most frustrating loss for the Hurricanes in this young season. The team got off to a poor start and fell in a 2-0 hole but managed to battle back and had the Bruins right where they wanted them at the second intermission. Unfortunately, they could not capitalize on this opportunity and came out flat for the third period which resulted in them being stuck in their own end for most of that frame and the Bruins eventually taking advantage of it by scoring a late third period goal. It was a classic case of one team playing to win and the other simply trying not to lose. Whether this was due to the Canes top players being worn out from playing too many minutes or simply being outworked by the Bruins is something that's up for discussion but either way, it was not pretty to watch.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump.

Those who are fans of exciting hockey were in for a treat if they watched any of the back-to-back series between the Carolina Hurricanes and Buffalo Sabres, because that is exactly what these two teams delivered. On Thursday, we saw a high-scoring affair that featured a lot of great action at both ends and last night, we saw a terrific goaltending duel between Dan Ellis and Ryan Miller. Both goaltenders recorded 40 saves, as they did all they could to at least get a point for their respective teams but in the end, it was Ellis and the Hurricanes who came out on top with a 3-1 win.

Saying that Ellis "stole" this game for Carolina would be somewhat of an accurate statement because he had to make 40 saves and came up huge a few times in the second period to keep the game tied at zero. That being said, I always felt like saying a goaltender "stealing" a game implies that the team in front of him played poorly, which wasn't the case with the Hurricanes last night. They also recorded over 40 shots, were only outchanced 21-20 and had the upper-hand at even strength by outshooting and outchancing Buffalo 34-30 and 16-15 respectively. Ellis played a huge role because the Canes could not get anything by Miller until the third period when it took a perfect shot by Alexander Semin to beat him top shelf. They also got a bit of a lucky bounce on Jay Harrison's game-winning goal but sometimes that's what it takes to beat a goalie who played as well as Miller did.

Ellis still deserved the first star of the game, though because the Canes would have likely been playing from behind for most of the game if it wasn't for his performance. They were playing without Justin Faulk for the entire third period, too so the fact that they were able to pick up the win last night is huge. The Canes did a lot of good things last night, though and we'll break those down along with the scoring chances after the jump.

Don't look now but the Hurricanes have outchanced their opponents in each of their first three games this year and they managed to do it last night without the "aid" of score effects, as they were playing with the score tied or with a lead for most of the contest. Yesterday's game was easily Carolina's most impressive performance in this still very young season. Not only did they get the win, they also recorded a season-high 22 scoring chances and outplayed Buffalo in all three areas.

They didn't completely mow the Sabres over at even strength (chances were only 15-13 during 5v5 play) but they more than made up for it on special teams by completely shutting down the Sabres powerplay. Losing the special teams battle was one of the main problems for the Hurricanes in their first two games and they did a great job of improving on it against Buffalo.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump.

For the second game in a row, the Hurricanes outchanced their opponents only to come out on the losing end of a blowout. Despite outchancing both Florida and Tampa Bay by a combined 40-34 and 32-23 at even strength, the Canes have been outscored 2-9 and now find themselves starting the year with an 0-2-0 record. This is frustrating to watch, but the fact that Carolina has been winning the battles at even strength should mean that better days are on the horizon. I mean, simple regression should tell you that the Hurricanes aren't going to continue to shoot at less than 3% forever and Ward won't continue to let in more than 20% of the shots he faces in the long-run. So this team isn't as bad as their -7 goal differential through two games would lead you to believe.

There are some problems with this team, though and the main killer in both games has been slow starts. They had a parade to the penalty box in the first period against Florida resulting in three powerplay goals against. The same trend continued against Tampa Bay, as the Hurricanes created only three scoring chances (despite several offensive zone draws) and allowed two early goals to put themselves in a 2-0 hole heading into the first intermission. Carolina managed to wake up after that and ended up on the right side of the shots and scoring chance ledger, but the slow starts are something that really needs to be fixed. Cam Ward hasn't been playing well enough to bail them out of it and they can't keep spotting teams 1-2 goals five minutes into the game.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump.

It's a new year, which means that it's time to restart our regular breakdowns of the Hurricanes scoring chance numbers. Wish that I could begin this on a happier note but the Hurricanes didn't get off to the start they planned last night, losing their season opener 5-1 to the Florida Panthers. I know that breaking down the gruesome details of a blowout loss is never fun, but it's a necessary evil that us statisticians have to do and the numbers from last night's game actually aren't as the score indicates. This was something I refuted a few times in the recap and on Twitter, but Carolina played a fairly strong game at even strength and ended up on the ugly end of a loss thanks to terrible discipline, penalty killing and sub-par goaltending. It would have been a completely different game if a few more breaks went their way in the second and third period. That's just the way the puck rolls sometimes, though.

Scoring chance breakdown is coming after the jump.

No one can take away what Jeff Skinner accomplished in his rookie season where he netted 30 goals and took home the Calder Trophy, but I had my doubts about him repeating that kind of year because he received such good fortune when it came to shooting at even strength. I was expecting another good year from him, but his boxcar numbers were bound to tail off a little since it's hard to maintain a 15.7% even strength shooting percentage and have your teammates shoot at over 10% whenever you're on the ice. Most players tend to see those kind of numbers regress eventually and it took only a year for regression to catch up with Skinner.

Skinner saw his shooting percentage drop from 15.7% to 10.5% at even strength while his powerplay shooting percentage fell from 14.3% to 9.5%. His on-ice shooting percentage also took a significant plunge from 10.97% to 9.28% during five-on-five play, all of which resulted in Skinner finishing with fewer goals and points last season. However, despite suffering some major shooting regression, Skinner's point-per-game total was still very respectable as he scored at a .687 PPG rate and a large part of this was because his game improved in so many other areas.

One sign of a player having potential long-term success is his ability to control possession at even strength and this was something Skinner excelled at last season. He was getting a bit of a push in zone starts, but Skinner still outperformed the rest of the forwards when it came to driving the play as the Canes controlled 50% of the even strength shot attempts when he was on the ice. On a team that was a sinkhole in terms of possession last season, that is no easy accomplishment. Skinner's ability to keep the puck in the offensive zone led to him getting more shots on goal, recording over nine shots for every sixty minutes he played. Eric Staal had 7.5 shots per 60 minutes last season, so that should give you some perspective on how good Skinner was at creating offense.

His sophomore year may have a black mark on because he suffered a concussion and had a bit of an attitude problem, which resulted in him being sidelined for a couple games by Mr. Shanahan. Outside of that, Skinner had a fantastic sophomore campaign. He has shown the ability to carry a line and is close to establishing himself as the team's best offensive threat (although he's got some competition with Alex Semin coming to town). The only other thing that I would like to see is for Skinner to do what he did last season but without the benefit of protection in terms of quality of competition. He only turned 20 in May, so he has time to be that kind of player but he isn't there yet despite his high-end offensive talent. 

My expectations for Skinner this year are a bit lofty given the kind of season he had last year. If he can continue to produce a high amount of offense and see his shooting percentage rebound and stay healthy, then he could have a scoring line more similar to his rookie season. His shooting percentage is obviously one of the x-factors but another is what kind of minutes he is assigned. After the jump, we will discuss that and dive deeper into my projection for Jeff Skinner's 2012-13 season.