Not going to lie here, I thought the Rangers should have been able to handle the Caps at even strength fairly easily based on these two team's play in the regular season. This hasn't been happening, though as the Rangers have been outchanced 39-36 by the Caps at evens heading into tonight's game. They aren't getting dominated but they were outplayed in two out of three games and were able to scrape out an ugly win on Monday. Those kind of wins always go a long way in the playoffs, though and it gave the Rangers a chance to climb back in the series. The Rangers are also a better team than what they showed in the first three games, so this series could very well go the full distance if the Rangers could return to their level of play during the regular season. Last night, we saw just that.

The Rangers looked more like the team that many expected to see this playoffs as they had complete control of things for about 75% of the game. Their offense came back to life in recording a total of 23 scoring chances and keeping Washington's better forwards quiet for the majority of the game. They were able to do this well in Game 3, as well but didn't create much offense at even strength. This ended up being the difference maker last night as they did not allow the Caps to have much sustained zone time at all.

In addition to that, the Rangers got something they've received little of this series, which is good bounces. Their first goal came after Taylor Pyatt knocked down a bad clearing attempt from Braden Holtby and it allowed Brad Richards to eventually score on an empty net. They got another one in the third period when Carl Hagelin was able to draw Holtby out of position and quickly get the puck to Derek Stepan, who fired the puck into an empty cage for the Rangers fourth goal of the game, which ultimately ended up being the game-winner. These kinds of chances & breaks weren't happening to the Rangers in the first three games, so being able to get these bounces likely played a role in the team's confidence. The Rangers obviously can't rely on bounces to advance but they have to like their chances now that the score is tied and their team just played easily their best game of the series.

The Wild pulled a bit of a shocker on Sunday afternoon by not only defeating the Chicago Blackhawks in overtime, but also outplaying them for the majority of the game on top of that. Chicago matches up favorably to the Wild in just about every area, so many were expecting this series to be a quick one but the Wild showed in that game that they could hang tough with one of the best teams in the NHL. Chicago's response to this was to play a much more conservative game and focus completely on shutting down the Wild's offense. 

They accomplished this well on Tuesday night by holding Minnesota to only 11 total scoring chances and six at even strength, which is as much as some teams record in an entire period. The Wild had the distinct edge in zone time and puck-possession, but it didn't matter that much because Chicago scored on their first shot of the game and focused on defense the rest of the way. They weren't playing as much of an end-to-end game as they were in the first three game and were more content with settling for safer clears rather than trying to lead odd-man rushes with their breakouts. It's all they needed to do, though since they were able to score early and the Wild had virtually no offense going for them.

All Chicago has to do now is win one more game at home and they are good to go for the next round and judging from how Games 1 & 2 went, this shouldn't be too hard of a task.

"Goaltending Gongshow" would be an appropriate headline for what went down at the Nassau Coliseum last night as the Islanders were able to tie the series. The goaltending on both sides has been bad, but last night's game may have been the ultimate display of goaltending ineptitude where Evgeni Nabokov was bad and Marc-Andre Fleury was ten times worse. The "quality start" metric is what is usually used to measure goaltender performance where all a goalie has to do is post a .912 save percentage in a game to give his team a chance to win. Neither goalie was able to do this last night with Nabokov allowing four goals on 31 shots and Fleury letting in an astounding six goals on 24 shots. "Shot quality" is always the common argument against this stat but anyone who watched the game last night shouldn't even bring this up because three of the goals Fleury let in were disgusting and he had to face only 11 Islander scoring chances as a whole.

The team in front of Fleury actually looked slightly better than they did in the last two games as they were able to limit the Islanders scoring chances and control the better part of this game. That would have been good enough for a win, but all stats kind of go out the window when 25% of the shots you give up end up in the back of your net. Three of the goals Fleury let in weren't even registered as scoring chances (Strait, Okposo & the second Streit goal), so that alone should tell you what the main problem was for the Penguins. 

Fortunately for the Penguins, this is only a tied series and they are starting to look better than they did in the last two games, albeit that isn't saying much. They also have another goaltender who they can turn to in Tomas Vokoun and it wouldn't shock me if we see him in net on Thursday. Pittsburgh is at the point where they need to start the goalie who gives them the best chance to win and I'm not sure if that goalie is Fleury right now. I can't help but feel that the only reason he wasn't pulled from last night's game is because Nabokov was almost just as bad and kept the Penguins in the game.

If you've been following this blog for any amount of time then you probably know that I've been tallying and posting the Hurricanes scoring chance numbers on a game-by-game basis and now it's time to reveal the team's overall performance. However, before we get into that, let's provide some context to the team's numbers. Last week, I discussed how the Hurricanes have been a very good puck-possession team for most of the season but their scoring chance numbers had been steadily declining for the final 18 games or so. It's a weird phenomenon because scoring chances and puck-possession are usually strongly related to each other but it wasn't for the Hurricanes this season. Taking an individual look at each player's scoring chance differential will help us identify who contributed to that. I'll also post their Fenwick percentage to show how they controlled scoring chances compared to puck-possession.

In addition to that, I'm also going to post each player's individual scoring chance rate to show which players were creating the most chances. It'll be a way to identify who was creating the most offense on each line and show who could be in for a breakout season next year. Without further ado, let's take a look at the numbers.

Rangers head coach John Tortorella has stated a few times that he thinks this series is closer than some believe and that his team has played well in a few areas, specifically with generating offense. That may have been true for Game One, but the Rangers had a lot of problems the next game and the truth is that they weren't very good last night either. They were able to keep the series alive with a 4-3 win but it was a very ugly win at that, because the Caps were the team that had controlled most of the five-on-five play and this is the second game in a row where this has happened.

That being said, being able to get the win last night could serve as a turning point for New York because they are capable of playing better and now have a chance to change the landscape of this series with another win. The Caps also brought a lot of problems on themselves by getting into penalty trouble in the first two periods and basically giving the Rangers chances to take over the game. Washington has done a great job of shutting down New York's power play in the first two games, but giving them six opportunities in the first two periods is just asking for trouble and the Rangers were able to make them pay, twice in fact.

It's a rare instance that the Rangers win the special teams battle, but that becomes somewhat easier to accomplish when they get 10 minutes of power play time. Taking this & the Caps series lead into consideration, it's very good that the Rangers didn't squander this win, as ugly as it was, because any chance of them pulling off a comeback would have gone down the drain if they did. After last night, I can see this series going either way. If the Rangers come out in regular season form, then I think this can go to seven games but it might be over quickly if their play at even strength is similar to how it was in the last two games.

Both of the afternoon games yesterday followed a similar pattern. We had two 1 vs. 8 matchups with the lower seed vastly outplaying the higher ranked team and both games going to overtime. The difference between the two games is unlike the Islanders, the Wild actually got rewarded for their efforts and were able to finish off the Blackhawks in overtime to stay alive in the series. After looking outmatched in Game Two, the one silver lining I could come up with for the Wild is that the next two games would be at home and could possibly come out stronger then and this is exactly what happened as Minnesota played their best game of the series and got a well-deserved OT win. 

Not going to sugarcoat this, the Wild have been a bad team at even strength so I was a little surprise to see them outshoot the Hawks 31-24 at evens today and was even more surprised that they limited Chicago's high-powered offense to only 11 total scoring chances today. Minnesota doesn't have the best depth or a lot of offense, but they had a good game-plan for limiting Chicago's offense today. They were able to shut them down in the neutral zone, played physical against their top forwards and kept most of their shots to the outside. I'm not sure how much of it had to do with the Blackhawks not playing up to their ability (they looked flat for about 50 minutes) but the Wild were the better team yesterday and now have some hope in this series.

One of the great things about the playoffs is the sense that anything can happen. It's an overstated narrative, but it's somewhat true when you think about it. Crazy things happen in a seven-game sample size (goalies standing on their heads, certain players going through a hot streak, etc.) and the heavily favored team doesn't always win. In this Pens/Isles series, the script has been flipped a bit. The Penguins are the top-seed and heavily favored coming in but they have actually been outplayed by the the Islanders in two out of three games. It might sound strange to the casual fan, but the Penguins have had a very tough time handing with the Islanders this series and are very fortunate to be leading two games to one.

The Penguins "stunning" depth looked outmatched by the Islanders top-nine today, as they were outchanced 21-12 and recorded only eight scoring chances at even strength. I don't care how talented your lineup is, this kind of offensive production isn't going to cut it in the playoffs even if they advance out of the first round. Yet, despite having such a low offensive output, the Pens were able to beat Nabokov five times and convert on a little under half of their scoring chances. Whether you want to chalk it up to a strong power play, luck, "killer instinct," "efficiency" or brutal goaltending from Evgeni Nabokov  is up to you, but the Pens seemed to have the golden touch whenever they shot the puck today for whatever reason.

I think the Penguins are a better team than what they have shown the last couple of games, but the Islanders deserved a better outcome than what they got today since they were the better team. However, as I said earlier, the better team doesn't always win in a seven-game series and getting a win today can help give the Pens a boost for the rest of the series. They are going to need to come out a lot stronger than they did today, though because the Islanders have really been giving them a hard time.

Despite being favored by most of the advanced stats community to win this series, the Rangers find themselves down 2-0 to the Washington Capitals and have looked very sloppy in both losses. They outplayed the Caps in Game One and didn't come away with the results they were hoping for, but the Rangers were just bad yesterday. The Caps weren't much better despite having a massive advantage in shots on goal and 5v5 territorial play, but the Rangers were just flat out brutal for most of this game. The Rangers strong even strength play during the regular season is the reason why I picked them to win this series, and they ended up getting outshot by 10 by a team who is struggled with puck-possession.

As bad as the Rangers played, they may have been a goalpost or two away from stealing a victory thanks to the play of Henrik Lundqvist and the Capitals not being able to create many scoring chances out of their zone time. Washington seemed to revert back to their form in last year's playoffs and focused more on shutting down Rick Nash's line after he ran wild on them in Game One. They succeeded with this task, as they were able to contain the Rangers for most of the game and hold their offense to only 13 total scoring chances. I thought the Caps could have done a better job of generating better chances and testing Lundqvist during regulation, but from a defensive standpoint, they did a great job and the fact that they had the puck a lot more is never a bad thing in a playoff game .

The Rangers still have two home games to make a series out of this and the gameplan they had for today's game worked for the most part, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see more low-event games the rest of the way. It might suit them well to get more traffic in front of Lundqvist since they took a lot of shots from the point and from bad angles that were easily steered aside by the Ranger netminder. It's not a bad strategy since the Rangers had the scoring areas covered well, but those shots only do so much if there's no one going for the rebounds. The Caps might be able to make this a quick series if they can win the scoring chance battle on the road but I'm expecting to see a different Ranger team in Game Three.

If I had to pick a series that was going to be the most lopsided, the Western Conference's 1 vs. 8 matchup between the Wild & Blackhawks would probably be at the top of my list. As I mentioned in my playoff preview, the Hawks are superior to the Wild in just about every category and should be able to handle them in at least five games. The Wild managed to push Chicago to overtime in Game One before losing in overtime thanks to a phenomenal effort in goal from Josh Harding, but Game Two went a bit differently. The Wild took a 5-2 loss and were grossly outplayed for about three-fourths of the game. I know Minnesota is playing with a couple key injuries (Jason Pominville's absence being a big one), but they looked like a team that was just plain outmatched in Game Two. They can't expect Harding to keep them in every game and they certainly can't continue to give up 40-50 shots every game if they want to have a chance in this series.

Minnesota was able to make things a little interesting in the second period on the back of a strong performance on the powerplay, but Chicago won just about every other battle and earned themselves a two-game advantage in the series.

Despite the results of Tuesday night's game and the Penguins being the top-seed in the Eastern Conference, I was expecting this series to be somewhat competitive. The first game may have been a dud, but last night delivered a little more of what I was expecting to see from this series. The Islanders have been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference at controlling puck-possession at even strength and this was on full display last night as they really took it to the Penguins. They outshot them 36-23 during even strength play, had a huge advantage in five-on-five shot attempts and outplayed them in just about every area except for special teams.

The Isles had a territorial advantage in Game One, too but they weren't creating much offense out of any of their zone time. This changed completely last night.as the Isles were able to test Marc-Andre Fleury a lot more. They were still shooting from the outside a lot, but I noticed their transition game was much stronger and they did a much better job of getting to rebounds, which resulted in a few more chances and some lucky bounces to go with it. 

Luck is probably the main reason why the Isles were able to tie this series tonight even though they were the better even strength team. They were trailing 3-1 at the first intermission and were able to tie the game thanks to some fortuitous bounces and a couple of soft goals in their favor. Three out of the four goals they scored weren't scoring chances and the only one that did qualify came after Matt Martin banged in a puck that took a weird carom off the end boards. You could make the argument that the Islanders created their own luck and would have scored eventually with how much they were outplaying the Penguins, but it's still hard to deny that they got some breaks there. Sometimes this is all you need, though and it could help the Islanders extend this series.

Let's remember that the Islanders are not a bad team and are capable of giving the Penguins a fair run for their money in a seven-game series with the talented group of forwards they have. Pittsburgh has more top-end talent on their roster, but they still can't afford to play the Islanders lightly and get outshot as badly as they did last night. Both teams are going to need to tighten up a bit defensively, though. The Penguins are a lot better than what they showed in Game Two and Evgeni Nabokov stability in net is just as questionable as Fleury's, so I see this series as one that can go either way despite Pittsburgh's bad underlying numbers.