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Trade Deadline Roadblocks

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

We are only one day away from the trade deadline and every Hurricanes fan is wondering why GM Jim Rutherford has yet to make any moves. It seems pretty confusing at first glance because the Canes are currently in the middle of a playoff race and have been playing some of their worst hockey of the season. Since Rutherford has yet to make any deal at all, some fans have gotten the impression that he's either fine with the way the team is playing now or is low-balling other teams in trades. Any competent NHL executive isn't going to sit back when their team suffers a bad losing streak at this time of the year, so Rutherford has probably been very active in talking to other teams and trying to make trades. The problem is that he is in a very tough spot right now and there are going to be a lot of things standing in his way when it comes time to make moves.

The Canes are also not definitive "buyers" or "sellers" right now since they are on the cusp of even being in playoff contention. The weakness of the Southeast Division and the Eastern Conference has allowed them to stay in the pack despite their recent stretch of terrible play and a win streak could turn their season around. There are a lot of other teams who are in similar situations, so they are also going to be reluctant to buy or sell at this deadline and that's going to make a lot of trades tough to accomplish, especially for a team in the Hurricanes situation.

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Jussi Jokinen placed on waivers

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

With the Hurricanes currently in a tough losing streak, most people figured that there were going to be some changes to the roster very soon and we saw one of those moves today with Jussi Jokinen being placed on waivers. To most people, this move came as a surprise because Jokinen is known to most people as a "top-six player," a good face-off guy and a solid play-maker. However, most Hurricanes fans are less surprised because he is currently having the worst season of his career. Jokinen has only 4 goals and 10 points in 30 games and has been drifting back-and-forth between the second and third lines for most of the year.

The emergence of Riley Nash as the team's third line center has forced him out of that role and the return of Tuomo Ruutu might have pushed him out of one of the winger spots in the top-six, leaving it hard to find a place for him in the lineup. The Hurricanes have also been pushing the 23-man limit on their roster with the recent call-up of John Muse and Chad LaRose returning from injury, so someone was going to be out regardless and one of those players ended up being Jokinen. One would think that Jokinen has some trade value, but it appears that isn't the case since any team can get Jokinen for free if they desire. The only risk that comes with it is that they will have to take on him $3 mil. salary & cap hit next season, which is a lot for someone with his numbers but not a crippling cost.

No one is going to deny that Jokinen is having a bad season, but is giving him up for no cost a smart move? Even with Nash playing well and Ruutu's return, I find it hard to believe that there is no place for him in the lineup. A look at Jokinen's underlying numbers show that he has actually been pretty good at driving the play forward this season but can not catch a break at all. The Hurricanes are outshooting their opponents by 8 during 5v5 play whenever he is on the ice and that's with him playing some tough minutes on Jordan Staal's line for a good part of the year. Is it Jokinen's fault that the team is shooting at less than 6 percent with him on the ice? I know he takes a lot of flack for missing open shots, but this issue seems to be team-wide lately. In a shortened season, bad bounces can usually make or break you and Jokinen has definitely been on the wrong end of that for most of this year. Still, after reviewing his numbers, I find it kind of hard to believe that he deserves a spot on this team less than Drayson Bowman & Chad LaRose, who have been performing much worse in smaller roles.

If the idea behind this was to send a message, then an easier move would have been to scratch Jokinen for a game or two and look for potential suitors. There aren't going to be many of those now that they can get him for free and a cap floor team such as Phoenix will have no problem taking on his salary. The Hurricanes were obviously in a bind with the roster limit, but I don't think giving up players for free is the smartest idea when your entire organization has been riddled with injuries all season long.

There is also the possibility that this was done to make room for some other players, since the Hurricanes are at the 50-man-roster limit and there have been a lot of rumors swirling about Rutherford wanting to trade for a veteran defenseman. Removing Jokinen's salary and cap hit next season allows them a little more flexibility to do that since they can go after more than just a rental now. There has to be more to this move than just wanting to get rid of a player that's having a bad season, so we will just have to wait and see what else Rutherford has up his sleeves.

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On the Alexander Semin contract

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

If there is one thing Hurricanes fans needed during this losing streak, it was some good news and that got that today when it was announced that the team had signed Alexander Semin to a five-year contract extension worth $7 mil. per season. Semin has been almost a perfect fit on Carolina's first line with Eric Staal and Jiri Tlusty as the trio have been one of the most dangerous units in the league. Both Staal and Semin are currently point-per-game players and are in the Top 25 in the NHL in scoring. They are both currently benefitting from  high on-ice shooting percentages during five-on-five play and are probably performing a bit over their heads right now, but these two are still going to be a dangerous duo for a long, long time now that Semin is signed long-term.

Yes, $7 mil. per season is a lot of money to committ for 5 years under a $64.3 mil. cap and I have my doubts that Semin will continue to produce at a rate of over 3 points per 60 minutes at even strength, but before you go on about how much of an "overpayment" this is, ask yourself how much it would cost the Hurricanes to replace Semin. We are talking about a player who has been a legit first line winger for most of his career, has produced a very high rate in recent seasons and has filled what is a huge void on the Canes first line. People have criticized Rutherford for letting key players walk in the past and he made sure to not let it happen with Semin because replacing him would have been a huge task this off-season. Not to mention that it would have also been a PR nightmare for the team.

Like all contracts, there is obviously a lot of risks attached with this because $7 mil. per year is a lot of cash and Semin just turned 29, so he is exiting what is the prime of his career. His numbers could very well decrease over the next few seasons and make the deal look bad under the new cap. However, it's worth noting that the Canes have been trying to get their full money's worth with Semin. He plays in just about every situation (including the penalty kill now), is being used as a first liner and has been given just about every opportunity to succeed. So far, Semin has taken full advantage of this with his performance and I think Staal has also benefitted a ton from having Sasha as a linemate since he might be the most talented winger he's gotten to play with in years. I've talked about how Staal has elevated the shooting percentage of his linemates in past years and Semin's also had a high on-ice shooting percentage in past seasons, so it's possible that they could have some great years together after this season.

The only drawback of the Semin contract is the money and how much the Hurricanes have committed to next season under a $64.3 mil. salary cap. I have no issues with Semin being paid that much, but the Canes now have over $40 mil. of that cap space taken up by nine players. The Canes have themselves a nice core locked up, but the issue is going to be building around this corps with cheap contracts. They have plenty of space to give Justin Faulk a nice raise after Joni Pitkanen & Jussi Jokinen's contracts come off the books, but they are going to need to find bargains to occupy other depth roles. Jiri Tlusty is also due for a new contract after next season, as well and he may not come cheap unless his counting numbers take a nose-dive.

Carolina's younger players can probably step up into complimentary roles with the top-six spots being filled out, so the issue is going to be building a competitive defense corps on a tight budget. They have Gleason & Harrison locked up for awhile and should be able to re-sign Faulk but after that, things get a little dicey. It's doubtful that Ryan Murphy will be ready for a top-four role as a 20 year old and guys like Keegan Lowe, Austin Levi, Danny Biega, etc. are probably second pairing guys at the most. Blue-line help may need to be a top priority for Rutherford this summer.

There are going to be a lot of people against this signing but I think it's one the Hurricanes needed to make. They aren't going to find another Alexander Semin on the open market and he seems to like where he is in Carolina, so it's good that they were able to come to an agreement. The challenge is going to be building around him and the rest of the pieces Carolina has locked up for the next few years.

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Hurricanes CHL Prospect Update: NHLE Values

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Canadian Hockey League's regular season ended this weekend and some good news for Hurricanes fans is that many of their prospect's respective teams made the post-season and will have a chance to put themselves on the map this spring. Some of them are already well-known in the hockey community, but the playoffs are always a great opportunity for a player to create a lot of publicity for himself if he has a good showing or a big week. Hurricanes fans should be pretty excited to see what Ryan Murphy, Victor Rask, Brock McGinn, Keegan Lowe and others can do in the playoffs, but before we start to think about that, let's take a look at how they performed in the regular season.

What we are going to do to analyze their performance is look at how what they did in juniors would equate to if they played in the NHL through Behind The Net's equivalency values. Each league is said to have a different level of difficulty compared to the NHL and the junior leagues have the lowest (.29-.30) because it's just kids under 21 playing against each other.

There are a ton of high scoring games in junior hockey and thus, a lot of players with gaudy stat-lines which they probably wouldn't put up in the NHL at their age. NHL equivalency values are a good way to factor for this and while they aren't perfect, they do a solid job of bringing context into a player's performance in different leagues. You might remember me using this during the lockout to gauge the performance of the Hurricanes players overseas and we're going to do the same thing with their junior hockey prospects.

The numbers aren't going to be very impressive since they don't have many top-tier CHL prospects in their system, but their development is still promising.

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Hurricanes sign Keegan Lowe to entry-level contract

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

There is going to be no shortage of young talent in training camp this fall as the Hurricanes followed up their signing of Danny Biega yesterday by inking 19-year-old defenseman Keegan Lowe to a three-year entry-level contract today. Lowe was the Hurricanes 3rd round pick in the 2011 draft and is currently playing his fourth season with the Edmonton Oil Kings of the Western Hockey League. Lowe will be eligible to play in Charlotte once the Oil Kings' season is over, but that could be awhile from now with the team currently sit at the top of their division in the WHL and heading towards the playoffs.

Keegan is the son of former Edmonton Oiler great Kevin Lowe and likely gets a fair bit of publicity since he's currently playing junior hockey in the city where his father won five Stanley Cups. He is currently the captain of the Oil Kings and is having a career season in terms of goals (15) and points (30) so his development is coming along very nicely. There is probably a lot expected from Lowe in Edmonton but he is far from the best blue-liner on his team and is more depended on for a leadership role as the captain. He also has a presence as a tough guy, as he has racked up a lot of fighting majors and a ton of penalty minutes in his junior hockey career. A part of the season where Lowe really shined was when Edmonton lost a few of their best defensemen to the World Junior Championships, forcing him to play more minutes and he was able to thrive in them, putting up some solid counting numbers. 

Admitelly, I haven't seen much of Lowe this season aside from highlights, but he tends to be all over the place judging from those clips. Scouting reports peg him as more of a shutdown-type player, but there have been quite a few times where I've seen him roaming in front of the net on the powerplay. He also has quite a big shot from the point and has really shown it off this season with his 15 goals. His offense is something that scouting reports haven't talked about it a lot, but that part of his game has been coming around this season it seems. It will be nice if Edmonton makes it all the way to the Memorial Cup again so Hurricanes fans can get an even closer look at him.

Lowe will turn 20 at the end of the Month so he is still very young, but it's possible that he could be in the pros starting this fall. He was drafted more as a "project" but his development has been coming along very nicely if the reports out of Edmonton are any indication. I would expect him to be a candidate to make the Checkers roster out of camp or at least get the 10-game tryout look. I always say that you can never have too many young defensemen in your team's system, so getting both Lowe and Biega signed was a great move by Jim Rutherford and the Hurricanes.

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Hurricanes sign Danny Biega to entry-level contract

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Now that Harvard's season is over, the Hurricanes were able to come to terms with their third round pick from the 2010 draft, Danny Biega. Biega is a mobile, two-way defenseman and just finished up his senior year as the captain of Harvard's ice hockey team. His career with the Hurricanes organization will begin a little earlier than planned, as the team inked him to a three-year, two-way contract that will start this season and he made his professional debut last night with the Charlotte Checkers. Unfortunately, Biega took a hard hit early in that game and had to leave but he is practicing now and should be with the Carolina organization for at least the next few years. 

Biega is a prospect I've had my eye on for quite sometime and while he had a disappointing senior year, he is still a great talent and has a lot of tools that can make him a future NHL-er. His greatest strengths are is offensive instincts, which were on full display during his junior season where he was a point-per-game player (34-10-35) and the quarterback of Harvard's powerplay. His play during that year earned him many honors including being named to the All-ECAC team.

He has a decent shot and really excels at moving the puck out of the defensive zone, which could definitely help him later on in his career. Biega's defensive game is also said to be very strong but not his best asset according to scouting reports. His skating, hockey sense and puck-moving skills remain his biggest strengths.

I've had my eyes on Biega for quite awhile now and was excited about his senior year, but he didn't have as good of a year as I had hoped. He finished the season with only 2 goals and 11 points in 32 games and his team lost in the first round of their conference tournament last weekend. Biega wasn't the only player on the Crimson who struggled, though as it was a down year for the entire team and it seems the loss of Alexander Killorn has hit them pretty hard.

One positive stat from Biega was that he was third on the team in shots on goal with 85, which could mean that poor luck was a factor in him scoring only two goals and having a -10 on the season. A defensemen being able to get that many shots on net is pretty impressive and could show some potential for him as a third-pairing defenseman at the NHL level. I'm personally hoping for more but young defensemen are tough to figure out, especially ones from the NCAA ranks.

I would expect Biega to be a key member on Charlotte's blue-line for the rest of the season as well as next season. If he impresses enough he could get a look at the NHL level sooner than most think but we'll have to wait and see what happens there. The Hurricanes getting Biega signed to his ELC right now not only bolsters their organizational depth on defense, but it can possibly give the Charlotte Checkers a boost as they continue to march towards the playoffs. With the amount of injuries and players lost they've had to deal with, more bodies is never a bad thing.

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Guest Column: Alexander Semin thriving in new environment

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

It's not too often I have a guest writer on here, but ESPN TrueHoop writer Michael Pina showed me an article he wrote on Alexander Semin and I thought it was worth posting on here. Semin has quickly established himself as a fan-favorite among Caniacs and it's nice to see that his strong play has been catching the national eye this year, too.

Whenever a professional athlete “just needs a change of scenery,” the line is usually a misleading twist of the narrative that actually means “whatever ugliness that’s going on isn’t Player X’s fault. He’s cool, it’s everyone else who’s messed up!”

In sports, this turn of phrase has firmly planted itself on the Mt. Rushmore of scapegoat targeting one-liners. It’s whispered all the time, by players, agents, coaches, owners, even fans. It’s the standard excuse maker, and almost always sums up a tricky situation by skimming over the meat and potatoes that explain what exactly is/was/will be wrong. More times than not whatever’s actually wrong is too complex to identify.

Carolina Hurricanes right winger Alexander Semin was the NHL’s prime “just needs a change of scenery” guy this past summer. After making his NHL debut as a 19-year-old in 2003, Semin spent seven oft-tumultuous seasons with the Washington Capitals. But for the most part his work on the ice went without complaint. He’s one of 18 NHL players to average at least 30 goals during the last six seasons, and has recorded the fifth most goals in Capitals history.

(For “change of scenery” cases to even be relevant the subject must be supremely gifted, and if he isn’t succeeding it’s an easy way to explain mysterious struggles.)

Nobody doubted his ability to dominate on the ice—setting up teammates with unparalleled foresight and seemingly scoring at will with a wrist shot so precise it could cut glass—but Semin’s attitude was criticized by teammates, those who spend more time with him than his own family.

Most of the questions centered around his work ethic, or lack thereof, which likely factored into his signing just a one-year deal and would normally be seen as a death sentence for players possessing less natural talent. Former teammate Matt Bradley once said Semin “just doesn’t care,” and the Hurricanes did heavy background research into his mindset, interviewing his former coach Bruce Boudreau on the issue, before inking Semin to a deal.

In the end Carolina thought their “scenery” would do Semin good, and so far their relatively low-risk investment has paid off tenfold.

Through the season’s first 24 games he’s been nothing short of brilliant, boasting a plus/minus of +18—third best in the entire league (teammate Eric Staal and Pittsburgh’s Chris Kunitz are the only two who’re better, and Semin has only registered a negative plus/minus in five games). He’s also averaging 1.08 points per game, which is as helpful as it sounds, and ranks 15th in the league (Sidney Crosby leads the NHL with 1.73 points per game).

It’s still somewhat early into a lockout shortened season, but so far Semin’s new environment seems to be having a profound effect on his game. That, or it’s done nothing at all. 

Michael Pina is a writer for ESPN’s TrueHoop Network and ScoreBig.com. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.

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Carolina's New Depth Chart

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Carolina went into last week with a depth chart that looked something like this:

Color key: Orange = Injured player, Blue = Not waiver exempt, Green = Non contract player

Since then, Carolina has seen five different players suffer injuries and now their depth looks more like this:

To sum things up, in the short span of one week the Hurricanes have a top-six forward, who is also their best scorer, their fourth line center along with three top-four defensemen. Replacing them will be two centers from the AHL who have played a combined eight NHL games and three defensemen who are currently undergoing their first season in the NHL. One of which was just recalled from junior hockey. Carolina's depth wasn't anything to brag about to begin with but they are going to be even more strained now with third liners and AHL-callups making up most of their top-nine. 

Carolina's top-end talent is much better than it was last season thanks to Alexander Semin and Jordan Staal but after that top line, things get very dicey and I haven't even begun to talk about the state of the Canes defense. Justin Faulk might be having an outstanding season, but the cupboard is somewhat bare after him considering all of the injuries. At least one of Michal Jordan, Bobby Sanguinetti or Ryan Murphy will have to step up into the top-four if the roster stays as it is.

If there is a bright side to this situation it is that injuries are temporary and Carolina's roster isn't going to look like this for the rest of the year. In fact, they might be getting Joni Pitkanen back very soon but let's say that it does stay like this for a few more games. What will happen then?

Well, if Monday's game against Montreal is any indication it won't be pretty, but I hope that isn't the norm we will see from this roster on a nightly basis. Kirk Muller and the rest of the coaching staff know that this team has a realistic chance of making the playoffs so it's going to be up to them to get the most out of the hand they've currently been dealt. It's not an ideal situation but the Hurricanes aren't completely hopeless either.

Many of the guys who were called up were among their AHL affiliate's best players and now is a good time to see what they have to offer. Both Riley Nash and Jeremy Welsh were possible candidates to make the team out of training camp but ultimately got lost in the numbers game and started in the AHL. The injuries give these two a chance to show the coaching staff what they have and if they are cut out for the NHL. Zac Dalpe is also an option to be called up and he honestly doesn't seem like a bad option in Skinner's absence.

The defense is in a similar situation only a couple of these players weren't expected to make the NHL until at least another year. Then again, Michal Jordan was an AHL All-Star this year and has been one of Charlotte's best defensemen, so giving him a taste of the NHL now may not be the worst thing in the world. The high number of injuries also allows Carolina to give Ryan Murphy a tryout without the risk of burning a year of his ELC. I still think he isn't ready but playing him in one or two games can't hurt right now with the shape Carolina's defense is in.

Injuries are something that every team has to deal with and unfortunately for the Hurricanes, they all seem to be happening at once. I mentioned in an earlier post that Carolina doesn't need to overacheive that much to make the playoffs or win the division, but they might need to if the injuries to Skinner, Pitkanen, McBain, Gleason and Brent are prolonged. Hopefully this stretch of injuries doesn't last for more than a couple weeks but until everyone gets healthy, it's going to be up to the coaching staff to get the most out of this roster and the players to perform. If Monday's game is a sign of things to come then hard times might be ahead for Carolina, but I have a feeling that they are better than what they showed that night.

 

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Hurricanes Prospect Update 2/11 - 2/17

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Big offensive performances are somewhat common in junior hockey and you'll often see more than a few players record at least a point in every game they played in a given week. We've seen this a few times with the Hurricanes CHL prospects this year as both Ryan Murphy and Brock McGinn have put together some impressive offensive weeks over their career but none of their recent outputs tops the weekend Victor Rask just had. The Canes 2011 second round pick exploded for the Calgary Hitmen this past week with four goals and eight points in only four games, recording a hat trick in one of them. This pushes him to above a point-per-game pace on the season with 29 in 26 games in the top-10 on the team in scoring despite not playing for half of the season.

It's pretty easy to see why the Charlotte Checkers wanted to keep Rask on the team to start the year when you look at how well he is playing with the Hitmen. His play-making skills and willingness to go to the dirty areas to score can be such a big help to the Hurricanes when he gets older. He'll probably be with one of the big clubs to stay next season and while he probably won't be posting numbers like this, Rask has the tools to contribute at higher levels. It will be exciting to see how the rest of the year pans out for him as the Hitmen continue their push for the playoffs.

More on Rask and the other prospects is coming after the jump.

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Hurricanes Prospect Update 2/3 - 2/10

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The playoff races are beginning to heat up in the CHL and the good news for Hurricanes fans is that many of the team's prospects should be in the post-season this spring, which will give everyone a chance to get a closer look at their performance. One team that has already clinched a playoff spot in Keegan Lowe's Edmonton Oil Kings and Lowe himself has played a pretty big role in that. Not only is he the team captain, but he was also forced to play some bigger minutes during late-December and early-January when the Oil Kings lost a couple of their defensemen to the World Junior Championships. Lowe played some very good hockey during that stretch and he continued to do so this week, adding a goal and three assists to his totals. As a third round pick, Lowe's ceiling isn't projected to be very high but he should be an invite to Carolina's training camp at the start of next season.

After the jump, we'll take a closer look at Lowe's performance and the rest of Carolina's prospect pool. 

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