Buying low

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Jim Rutherford has already stated that one of his intentions this off-season is to sign a first-line winger to help out Eric Staal. There is no doubt that this has been a glaring need for the Hurricanes this season as Staal has had to make due with linemates like Jiri Tlusty and Chad LaRose. Those two players are on pace to have career seasons but even then, neither of them gives the Canes a threatening first line so getting an upgrade there will be critical. When thinking of who Rutherford might pursue this off-season, the two big ticket names are Zach Parise and Alexander Semin, both of whom are going to command a hefty contract and have multiple suitors. As much as I love the idea of the Canes signing Parise, the likelihood of him coming to Raleigh seems low, so we need to look for a back-up plan.

Going over the wingers who are set to become UFAs at the end of the season, if the Hurricanes can't land a big name they will probably have to overpay for someone or "buy low" on a quality player who is coming off a bad season. There are actually many of these players available and I could easily see the Hurricanes making a push for one of them. Who are these players and is it the right way for Carolina to go in free agency this offseason? After the jump we'll take a look at this issue.

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Jeff Skinner's suspension and the "need" of an enforcer

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Hurricanes were hit with some surprising news yesterday evening as it was announced that forward Jeff Skinner would be suspended two games for "kicking" St. Louis player Scott Nichol with his skate blade during Thursday's game against the Blues. This is the first time that a Hurricanes player has been "Shanabanned" this year and the news surprised a lot of fans because not much was made of this incident by either broadcast team when it happened during the game. It did not miss the eye of Mr. Shanahan, though and Skinner will sit out the next two games.

When looking at the suspension explanation video, you can clearly see that Skinner uses his skate blade in a kicking motion on Nichol in an attempt to make more room for himself. This is in violation of Rule 49.1 and is an extremely dangerous play by Skinner. Martin Havlat was suspended five games for a similar instance in 2005. Skinner absolutely deserves this suspension and there is no debate about that, but this has led to some interesting discussions among Carolina fans about the team's need for an "enforcer" to look out for Skinner.

Anyone who watches Carolina knows that opposing teams have been taking liberties with Skinner ever since he came into the league and its easy to see why. Skinner is younger, smaller and weaker than a lot of his competition in the NHL and it has led to him be on the receiving end of some punishing hits from the likes of Brooks Orpik, Andy Sutton and Mark Fistric. The Hurricanes don't have a designated figher or "tough guy" on their team and Skinner's had to defend himself most of the time and it has led to him doing some pretty bad things between the whistles. The kicking incident that got Skinner suspended was done out of self-defense and he's also resorted to some cheap tactics in an effort to defend himself as of late and I am not a fan of it at all. Skinner is an amazing player and I understand that he has to defend himself despite being at a size and height disadvantage but I want him to be known for his goal-scoring and play-making skills rather than the stuff he resorts to between whistles to defend himself.

This is where the "enforcer" would come into play for most people. The idea is that having a big, intimidating fighter in the lineup will prevent other teams from taking runs at their players but in today's NHL, the role of an enforcer is very limited. Most play only five minutes per game, have little to no hockey skills and generally don't have much of an effect because of the instigator rule. It's a debate that has been run to the ground among hockey bloggers and all I can think of when people bring up a team's "need for an enforcer" is how little of them have much of an effect in the NHL right now. Many teams have tried to make room for a player like that but how many of them actually use these enforcers? Steve MacIntyre has played only 11 games for the Penguins this year, Brian McGrattan has played 30 games for the Nashville Predators, Darcy Hordichuk, Kevin Westgarth and Jody Shelley are healthy scratches on most nights and I don't even need to get into the Joel Rechlicz fiasco in Washington.

I am not sure if an enforcer is needed on the Hurricanes to protect guys like Skinner but what would help is having more of the team's bigger players help defend him. Tim Gleason and Bryan Allen have done this many times in the past and I guess it wouldn't hurt to have them step up their games a little bit. The only problem with them fighting and "roughing up" those who take runs at Skinner is that it normally results in one of them going to the box and that hurts the team because both are two of Carolina's best penalty killers. Anthony Stewart and Derek Joslin are two other players who have been willing to drop the gloves in the past and both are big, physical players that can provide an intimidating presence to opponent's. The issue here is that neither play a lot of minutes and likely will not be on the ice when Skinner is. I could see both of them playing a role similar to an enforcer, only they help the team in other ways besides fighting. Tuomo Ruutu is another player who I can see sticking up for Skinner during scrums and he plays on a line with him almost regularly. 

Skinner is only 19 and he will eventually mature enough physically to fight his own battles but until then, he is going to need some help. Like I just said, he's still a kid and his actions between the whistles show that he still has some learning to do when it comes to picking his battles and defending himself. His teammates can help him out with this area of the game but I do not think that help should come in the form of an enforcer.

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Trade deadline reactions

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

As the whole hockey world knows, yesterday was the trade deadline and the Hurricanes....well they didn't do anything. The common thought around the league was that the Canes would be sellers this year because they are last in the Eastern Conference and have/had a few expiring contracts but they ended up re-signing two pending UFA's and trading no one in the last month. The only pending UFA who was moved this year was Alexei Ponikarovsky for a 4th round pick and Joe Sova. Guys like Ruutu, Gleason, Allen and Spacek (i.e. the players everyone thought would be traded) are still on the team and the first two were given new four-year contracts.

Am I a little disappointed that Jim Rutherford didn't move anyone? A little, especially after hearing talk from Bryan Allen's agent saying that an extension "wasn't going to happen." As much as I like Allen, he is someone who could have a good amount of value to a contending team and could have gotten Carolina a decent return. His NTC makes him difficult to trade but if he didn't want to re-sign then trading him makes the most sense. That said, Rutherford has until July to negotiate a new contract with Allen and I still have some hope that they can get something worked out. Allen is someone who I think will be a good fit on the team for the next couple years so keeping him around and negotiating a new contract might be the best thing.

Not trading Spacek sort of makes sense to me because I'm not sure what kind of return he will garner. Pavel Kubina and Hal Gill both fetched second round picks and Spacek isn't exactly far away from their class. However, he has been used in a completely different role with the Hurricanes than those two. Carolina has been sheltering him and using him as a third pairing defenseman and those kinds of players generally don't go for much. I like Spacek and he has played well but I'm not sure if he fits into the Canes future plans nor do I think that Rutherford missed out on a big return for him.

There were some other names I heard circulating around like Jussi Jokinen and Chad LaRose and I'm not sure how legit those were because LaRose is injured and wouldn't fetch much and Jokinen has shown great chemistry with Jeff Skinner on the second line. Anthony Stewart was another name mentioned but if someone wanted him, they could have had him for nothing two weeks ago.

Did Rutherford miss an opportunity by not dealing any of his players? Possibly. History shows that he doesn't like dealing for draft picks and maybe he just didn't see any offers he liked. The Hurricanes definitely need some more pieces to rebuild with and they could have gotten it this deadline by trading one of their pending UFA's but if the only offers they got were draft picks then I can understand why Rutherford didn't make a move. What Carolina needs is someone who can come in and help in the next couple of seasons instead of someone that's 4-5 years away from now. That's what I think Rutherford's mindset is. He did indicate that he wants to be active in free agency and acquire a first line winger, which is good news if he can do that.

One problem I had with him not trading Spacek or Allen is that we have seven healthy defensemen on the roster right now, all of whom are not waiver exempt, and when Joni Pitkanen returns we will have eight. We're already dressing Derek Joslin as a forward and that probably won't last for much longer so does he go back to the press box for the rest of the year? What happens to him next year? Also, another defenseman is going to need to be scratched to make room for Pitkanen and I honestly have no idea who that will be.

I don't particularly agree with all of Rutherford's strategies but I understand why he chose not to make any moves this deadline. There is still a few months left for him to work a deal out with Allen and if he can't, then he can always trade his rights over the summer. Just like Ruutu, the worst thing he can do with Allen is let him walk away for nothing and I think JR's has learned his mistakes enough times to not let that happen again. At least I hope so.

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The value of a first round pick

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Whenever a team makes a trade that involves a first round pick, the team that is getting that pick in return is often regarded as "the winner" of the deal because first round picks are something that is coveted among fans and GMs in the NHL. Draft picks are treated as currency during the trade deadline and the general idea around the league seems to be that a decent player will get you a mid-round pick, a good player will net a 2nd round pick in return and a great top-six player is worth a first round pick. At least that's how things seem to go around this time of the year. Whenever a deal involving a first round pick is made, the team that gave up the pick "overpaid" for a rental while the other team got a "great return." What a lot of people fail to realize is that teams giving up first round picks at this time of year are probably selecting in 17-30 territory and a first rounder there is completely different than one in the top five.

Let's take the recent three-way trade between the Avalanche, Red Wings and Lightning as an example. The Red Wings essentially gave up a first round pick (which went to Tampa) for defenseman Kyle Quincey, who is a free agent after this year. At first glance, this looks like an overpayment for the Red Wings because "Oh my god they gave up a first round pick!" but when looking at the deal closer, it makes a lot more sense for Detroit. The Wings are going to be picking late in the first round, have a decent prospect pool and needed a 3rd pairing defenseman better than Jakub Kindl. This is a team trying to win the Stanley Cup so a pick between #20-30 doesn't mean as much to them as it does to a rebuilding team.

That's the risk you take when you trade for only draft picks. None of them are sure thing and that's especially true with ones that come in the latter half of the first round. I'm not saying that draft picks don't have any value, but not every first round picks is going to be a star and teams who want to win now are fine with dealing those away if that's what it takes to acquire a player. I think this is why you're seeing more contending teams dealing their first round picks now.

To see what kind of value first rounders have, we're going to take a look at past trades involving first round picks and what they turned into. That will start after the jump.

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Hurricanes re-sign Tuomo Ruutu

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

After weeks of waiting to find out what would happen with Hurricanes winger and pending UFA Tuomo Ruutu, we finally got our answer today. The 29 year-old Finn will be staying in Raleigh for the foreseeable future as he just signed a four-year contract worth $19 mil. The contract will pay him $4 mil. next season and $5 mil. the three years after that which equates to a cap hit of about $4.75 mil. per year.

Let's get one thing out of the way, this is an overpayment and a pretty big one at that. Ruutu is a superb player and a great player to have in your top-six but I can't say that he is worth $4.75 mil. Yes, he scored 26 goals in 2008-09, which was mostly due to some absurd powerplay production, but he hasn't gotten close to that since then. His career high in points is 57 and his point pace has hovered around 45-55 for most of his career so we know where he stands right now. This year, he was on pace to score more than 20 goals for only the third time in his career and put up around 45 points. He's also 29, so what we're seeing right now is what we'll get for the next few years. In other words, Ruutu is good for about 15-25 goals and 45-55 points for the next few seasons. Is that worth $4.75 mil.? I don't think it is.

While this is an overpayment, I do not think that this contract should be considered an albatross or a mistake or Jim Rutherford's part. First of all, look at some of the players who are making $4.5-5 mil. right now. You'll see names like Tomas Fleischmann, Ryan Malone, David Backes, RJ Umberger, Brooks Laich and Martin Erat. All of them except for Backes fall under the "overpaid" category but that's the way the market has been. If Rutherford had let Ruutu walk, another team would have given him a similar contract with how this year's free agent class looks. I was hoping Ruutu would take less money but I think Rutehrford overpaid by less than $1 mil. here given the market.

The issue I had with letting Ruutu walk is that replacing him over the off-season would be a huge pain. Rutherford would have either did the same thing he did this off-season with Erik Cole by going the cheap route to replace him (which didn't work out at all) or overpay for another free agent. If we were going to spend around $5 mil. a year for a player, I'd prefer it to be someone who is better than Ruutu but, as I mentioned earlier, the free agent market doesn't have much to offer. If I were running the Canes, I would offer Ales Hemsky a three-year deal at a high cap hit and see what we can get out of him. He's a legit first liner and would be perfect for Carolina if he stays healthy but what are the odds of a deal like this happening? Rutherford has never been terribly active in the free agent market and there are going to be a lot of teams going after Hemsky. I don't know if the Canes would be able to land him. Keeping Ruutu around isn't the worst thing they can do, especially with the success he's had with Staal this year.

Don't get me wrong, I have plenty of concerns with this contract. Ruutu's possession rates have been declining over his career and while I do think he will stay productive for the remainder of his contract, it's worth keeping an eye on. Injuries are also a problem with Ruutu given how physical he plays and the fact that he's hurt now shows that. The increased salary will also increase his expectations because people are going to want to see more from a guy who is earning $4.75 mil. a year than one making $3.9 mil. I don't expect his production to take any huge leaps forward (or backward) so I can imagine this being a problem down the line when people look at his contract compared to his production.

Regardless, a four year deal isn't that bad of a contract even if the cap hit is high and I don't think this will hurt Carolina's future plans that much. Rutherford operates on a budget the the Canes are rarely a cap team. I can see Ruutu's salary playing a factor when it comes time to give Jeff Skinner a new contract but that's about it. If this were something like six years with the same cap hit, then I would be upset and say that it has the potential to become an albatross, but a four year deal is much less likely to sink a team.

In short, the Canes overpaid to keep Ruutu around but they made the right call by giving him four years instead of something longer than that. There were likely better options out there but at the very least, the Hurricanes shouldn't expect Ruutu's production to tail off completely for the rest of his contract and they have one less hole to fill in their top-six. It's not ideal, but I am content with this for the time being.

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The Jets at the deadline

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Based on their opening day roster and their lack of activity in the off-season, many people had the Winnipeg Jets as a longshot to make the playoffs. As of today, they are knocking on the door of the top 8 in the Eastern Conference as they are currently tied with Ottawa and Florida with 65 points. The only thing that's keeping them from leapfrogging those teams is the fact that they have played more games. The fans in Winnipeg are happy enough to have the NHL back in Manitoba and I can only imagine how ecstatic they will be if the Jets make the playoffs. They have the luxury of playing in the Southeast Division so it is possible, but is there anything that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff can do to give his team a boost and give the Atlanta/Winnipeg franchise their second playoff appearance?

It is really tough to say the moment because, much to everyone's surprise, Winnipeg is a good team and is actually superior at controlling possession when the score is close than their Southeast peers. This is a strange team because they play much better at home than they do on the road. They control roughly 52% of the Fenwick close events at home compared to only 48% when they play away from the MTS Centre. They are also at a disadvantage when it comes to games in hand as both Washington and Florida have played at least three fewer games than them. Cheveldayoff is also a first-year GM, so it's hard to figure out what he will do because we do not know his spending habits or if he has a certain budget like a lot of GMs do.

Needless to say, Winnipeg has holes to fill but with most of their top young players already on the roster and not much to give in terms of prospects, I don't think they will make too much noise over the next week. Still, it's worth taking a look at what needs they could address when gearing up for a playoff push. We will do that after the jump.

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The Capitals at the deadline

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Many thought that the Caps would be well on their way to a fifth straight Southeast Division title but that hasn't been the case. They find themselves two points out of a playoff spot and two points behind the Florida Panthers and haven't lived up to the expectations that pretty much everyone had for them. You can spend all day pointing figures at who is to blame for this but in the end, the Caps struggles are the result of injuries, nearly everyone in their forward corps under performing and some poor patience and decision making from general manager George McPhee.

Back in December of 2010, the Caps were going through a horrible losing streak which was mostly due to poor goaltending and awful luck and McPhee decided not to do anything drastic despite people calling for head coach Bruce Boudreau's head. In November of this year, the Caps went through a similar slump but this time, McPhee pulled the plug on Boudreau and replaced him with Dale Hunter. At the time, the Caps were one of the best team's in the league at controlling possession and were being dragged down by awful goaltending and special teams. Ever since Hunter took over, their goaltending has improved, their special teams has stayed relatively the same but their ability to control possession has fallen drastically. They are controlling only 49.12% of the Fenwick events (shots + missed shots) at even strength now and have been below .500 ever since Hunter took over.

Clearly, the Caps are having issues adjusting to Hunter's system, which is expected because you have a team that's geared for the playoffs being led by someone who has never coached in the NHL before. It isn't exactly a recipe for success and the Caps place in the standings is a reflection of that. They are only 17-15-4 under Hunter and have been getting outshot regularly ever since he took over, which has caused pessimism to reach a new high in DC.

Can they still make the playoffs? Absolutely. The Southeast is a three team race right now between them, Florida and Winnipeg and neither team has looked dominant so the door is still open for the Caps. What will it take for the Caps to develop some consistency, though? After the jump, I'll explain that and look at what moves McPhee might make over the next week.

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The Panthers at the deadline

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Dale Tallon was the laughing stock of the hockey world this summer when he signed eight different players to multi-year contracts in an attempt to get to the cap floor. Now that it is almost March and the Florida Panthers are leading the Southeast division, Tallon is the one that is laughing now. If that wasn't enough, most of the players who are leading the way for the Panthers are the ones that Tallon signed and traded for. Kris Versteeg, Jose Theodore, Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell and Marcel Goc have all played a huge role into Florida's success this year and they have a very good shot at taking the Southeast. They are a borderline positive team in terms of possession and aren't going to scare a lot of teams in the playoffs, but they are good enough to win the Southeast this year. The Caps have fallen apart ever since Dale Hunter took over, the Jets aren't dominant and both the Lightning and Carolina have little to no shot at the playoffs this year. Florida's chances at the playoffs are very real and Tallon has said that he plans for them to be "buyers" this deadline. They could use a few pieces to make some noise in the playoffs, but the question is who can they add and how much space do they have to work with?

We'll explore that after the jump.

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The Hurricanes at the deadline

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Over the next few days, I am going to look at each team in the Southeast division and determine what kind of moves they could be making as the trade deadline approaches. We've already seen a few deals go down the last few days and have an idea of what the market looks like, so I am sure that things will get interesting soon.

What I am going to do is look at the situation each team is in and whether or not they will be "buyers" or "sellers" over the next week and look at where they stand monetarily. Different GMs have different kinds of budgets and that effects what kind of trades they will be making. Some GMs are more likely to pony up money to re-sign a player while others will trade him away for draft picks or future assets. I will also examine some of the moves that these teams have made leading up to the deadline to get an idea of what to expect.

Of course, I will be starting with the Carolina Hurricanes, who currently sit at the bottom of the Eastern Conference but they haven't been in complete sell mode yet. The only expiring contract they have dealt is Alexei Ponikarovsky and they actually re-signed Tim Gleason to a four-year deal. The cap floor and injuries in both Raleigh and Charlotte might be preventing Jim Rutherford from making all of the moves he wants, but Carolina doesn't need to blow everything up right now. The most likely thing Rutherford will do is trade those with expiring contracts or those who are on cheap deals in return for salary, prospects and picks. Who exactly do the Hurricanes have to trade now that Tuomo Ruutu is injured, though? Better yet, what kind of moves will Rutherford be making over the next week if any at all? After the jump, we'll review Rutherford's activity this year and look at what kind of situation the Canes are in.

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Sign or Trade: The Tuomo Ruutu Story

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Whenever you are a team that is out of playoff contention near the trade deadline, most people consider said team to be in "sell mode" and the "logical" thing to do is to trade all of their players with expiring contracts for pieces they can use to rebuild with. Being last place in the Eastern Conference, the Hurricanes are one of these teams in "sell mode" and have a few players with deals that expire at the end of the season but the one everyone is talking about is the physical forward Tuomo Ruutu.

GM Jim Rutherford has already re-signed defenseman Tim Gleason for four more years at a moderately high cost and has said that he wants to re-sign Ruutu, as well. We know where Rutherford stands on this issue but there are a still a few things standing in the way. How much money does Ruutu want and will Rutherford be willing to give him that much? Another factor is how much are other GM's be willing to give up to acquire Ruutu. Most teams are going to want at least two solid scoring lines for a playoff push and Ruutu can help them with that. You have to weigh both sides of the situation with issues like this, so we're going to look at both the positives and negatives that come with either re-signing or trading Ruutu. I think JR has to do one or the other here because the worst thing he can do is let Ruutu walk away for nothing like he did with Erik Cole and Ray Whitney.

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