The excitement of the NHL off-season is just around the corner and there have already been numerous rumors and speculations about who the Hurricanes might go after in the next couple of months. Unfortunately, the majority of it is just scuttlebutt from the media or fans with big dreams and expectations. While there’s nothing wrong with setting your sights high and hoping for great things, the likelihood of Carolina being able to land a big free agent this off-season (see: Zach Parise & Ryan Suter) is very low.

I am not trying to be Mr. Pessimist, but Jim Rutherford is going to need to outbid at least 5-10 different teams to land those players and it’s probably going to have to come at a very high cost. Big ticket free agents like Parise are going to want long-term deals at high cap hits, so Carolina is going to make sure they are competitive within the next couple of seasons to land Parise. Why is this? Because Parise is in the prime of his career right now and there is a good chance that his production will tail off as he gets older. I like the idea of having Parise on the team but keep in mind that the team that ends up signing him could end up paying at least $5 mil. for a 20 goal season out of him. Knowing Rutherford, he isn’t going to take a risk like that unless he think he can build up a Cup contending team in the off-season.

Everyone’s focus in the off-season is always on the big names but before talking about Carolina being able to sign anyone, it’s important to go over the prospective roster for next season and the team’s cap situation so we know what the team needs and what they have to work with. Some needs are much more obvious than others (cough first line winger cough), getting a general overview of the Canes needs is a good starting point because there might be some areas that are being overlooked.

We will look at Carolina’s prospective depth chart and monetary situation (with the help of Capgeek) after the jump.

With the playoffs still being far from over, it might come as a surprise to some that the NHL Draft is only a little over a month away. This is about the time of year that scouts, team executives and bloggers scramble to find the best young talent from all over the world. One person who monitors this year-round is Corey Pronman of Hockey's Future and Hockey Prospectus, who recently released his list of the Top 100 Prospects.

I am going to be straight up with all of you on this. My knowledge of prospects is very, very limited. I watch college hockey semi-regularly but most of those players are already in the NHL and I don't have access to CHL or European games. Which means that I can only go by what I see in highlight clips and scoresheets with prospects, which are helpful but it is probably best if you listen to guys like Pronman before me when it comes to this stuff.

That being said, the Hurricanes are in an interesting situation with the #8 pick because judging from Pronman's list and other mock drafts I have seen, the best forwards in this class are likely to go in the top five while there are many good defensemen available in the top 15. While I am of the "taking the best player available" mindset, I do think that forward is a bigger need for the Hurricanes and they might need to trade up to get the forward they want in this draft.

Now, this isn't certain because there are always players who are taken lower than their projected position (see Jeff Skinner & Sean Couturier) and one of the top forwards being available at #8 isn't out of the realm of possibility. One reason for that is because some of the teams above the Hurricanes in the draft have a bigger need for a top-level defenseman in their prospect pool rather than a forward. The Canes have the opposite problem. They don't have the next Tyler Myers in their system, but they have more than enough defensemen prospects to get by while their strongest forward prospect is Zac Dalpe. Anyone who follows hockey can tell you that things could be a lot better there.

One of the teams that seriously needs a high-end defenseman in their system is the team picking at #4, the New York Islanders. Some Isles fans have expressed interest in trading down because they do not know if any of the defensemen in this draft class are worth taking in the top five. This should interest Hurricanes fans because a move into the top-five could give Carolina a better chance of taking one of the better forwards in this draft and they have some assets that they could move in the system. However, it is very possible that they might not have to deal one of their prospects if they try to move up four spots. Trades like this have happened before and very rarely have teams needed to move roster players to move up a few spots in the draft.

Let's go back to 2004 when the Canes traded up from #9 to take Andrew Ladd at #4. All they had to do was swap first round picks and give up a second rounder. For a more recent example, the Toronto Maple Leafs moved up from #7 to take Luke Schenn at #5 in the 2008 draft, which cost them a third round pick and a second rounder the next year. In that same draft, the Predators gave up their second round pick to move up two spots from #9 to #7 in the draft.

The Hurricanes have two picks in the second round this year and moving one of them to move up a few spots in the draft isn't completely otu of the qeustion. Although, I have to think that the Islanders, or any team in the top five for that matter, are going to want more than just a second round if another team wants to switch places with them in the draft. History has indicated the opposite, though.

Whether or not the Canes do trade up in the draft will depend on what the teams in front of them do and which players will be available at the time. If there is anything the last few drafts have shown us, it's that anyone can fall off the board and be picked much lower than their projected position. If that happens with someone like Filip Forsberg, Alex Galchenyuk, etc. then there is no need for the Canes to give up picks to move up a couple spots. General Managers usually have an idea of who they want beforehand and will go to lengths to acquire that player if he is good enough.

It is still way too early to determine who Rutherford and the scouting staff likes in this draft, so if there are any moves made, they are going to be at the last minute. A perfect situation for the Canes is for 2010 to repeat itself and have a high-talent forward fall to them and that could definitely happen.

Something that caught the eye of the hockey blogosphere last Sunday was Keith Jones of NBC Sports taking Alexander Radulov to task during the 2nd intermission for showing poor "effort" in the Nashville Predators series against the Phoenix Coyotes. He singles out some plays where Radulov carelessly turns the puck over in the offensive zone, misses the net on shots and showcases poor back-checking on plays that turned into goals. Jeremy Roenick then chimes in and says that Radulov was the Predators' "worst player."

Personally, I thought Jones was being a little harsh because I don't think Radulov was to blame for any of those goals (see Klein, Kevin) but he never really implied that and was mainly questioning his effort. Something that is completely fair when watching those clips, but I feel like those kinds of plays happen all the time if you follow one player throughout a game. Roenick's comments, however, were completely incorrect and sounded like he just wanted to mud-sling the "lazy Russian player" because anyone who has watched this series can probably tell you that Radulov has not been the Preds worst player. In fact, he has actually been one of their better forwards when playing at even strength. 

Now, I don't take anything Roenick says seriously but I've been seeing a lot of people agree with these two's assessment of Radulov. I have even heard some say that his suspension was a "blessing in disguise" and that the Preds are better off without him in the lineup. A statement that couldn't be further from the truth.

Let's take a look back to the Detroit series,

This is scoring chance data from the Preds' first round series with the Detroit Red Wings, and you will see that Radulov was Nashville's best forward. He was on ice for the second most scoring chances at even strength and contributed to over half of their powerplay scoring chances. Without him and Legwand, the Preds don't make it out of the first round. This is with them playing a considerable amoutn of time against Henrik Zetterberg's line, too.

What about in the second round? Radulov has yet to score a goal but his performance in the first two games has not been bad at all.

Radulov played very well in game 1 and had the best scoring chance differential on the team. That line didn't produce a goal but they easily could have with how many scoring chances they were creating. His performance in game 2 wasn't quite as good but he was one of the few Predators who actually had a positive chance differential at even strength, which says a lot. Radulov was brought into be a dynamic offensive presence and he has done that for most of this series, but one off-game has people saying that the team would be better off without him in favor of players who show "heart" and "toughness."

Guys like Jordin Tootoo, Matt Halischuk and Craig Smith are all good players but they do not have the talent that Radulov has. He instantly makes the Preds' top-six better and he showed that in the Detroit series. Nashville winning game 3 had little to do with him being out of the lineup and more to do with Pekka Rinne pitching a shutout, Nashville's defense corps and getting a couple of lucky breaks on top of that (see both goals they scored). I don't think Radulov playing in that game would have hurt them at all. 

The point I am trying to make with this is that too many people obsess over what kind of "character" a player is rather than his performance on-ice. It allways seems to be European's who get this kind of stereotype from the media and it looks like Radulov is the latest victim. His suspension and past history doesn't reflect well on his personality but I think that should be separate from what he does on the ice. As of right now, he's been on ice for the third highest amount of even strength scoring chances among Nashville forwards....and that is with missing one game. I think they will be happy to have him back in the lineup when he returns.

Yesterday, Hurricanes beat writer Chip Alexander tweeted that GM Jim Rutherford re-signed 24-year old forward Jiri Tlusty to a two year contract extension which will have a cap hit of $1.6 mil. each year. Tlusty is coming off a breakout season where he set career high marks in both goals and points (17 and 36 respectively) and became a regular on the first line with Eric Staal. He was about to become a restricted free agent and was a huge bargain for the $525k he was making this season, so he absolutely deserved an extension and a raise but there are some questions looming about him.

Whenever a GM signs a player to any contract, he is taking a risk by investing years and dollars in that player. Is Tlusty worth that kind of risk to the Hurricanes. My first thought is yes because Tlusty is coming off a great season and a two-year deal with less than $2 mil. per isn't exactly a huge investment, especially for a team like Carolina who doesn't spend to the cap.

However, I can't help but be reminded of the Edmonton Oilers getting themselves into a huge mess by signing a number of young players to multi-year deals after they had one good season, most specifically Gilbert Brule and Robert Nilsson. Brule in particular has some similarities to Tlusty. Both entered the league at a young age and clearly weren't ready for the NHL at the time. As a result, they couldn't make much of an impact with the clubs who drafted them and ended up having breakout seasons with their new team's shortly after.

Brule had 17 goals and 37 points in his second season with the Oilers which led to him getting a two-year extension worth about $1.9 mil. per year. That decision ended up burning the Oilers as he struggled with injuries the next year and wasn't very effective when he was healthy either. The Oilers attempted to trade him, but his concussion issues prevented that and Brule was eventually put on waivers and claimed by the Phoenix Coyotes. The point behind this is that the risk the Oilers took on Brule didn't appear to be terrible at first, but it ended up looking like a horrible decision the year later. Can the same thing happen with Tlusty?

Tlusty and Brule are completely different players, but their underlying numbers from their breakout seasons (2009 for Brule & 2011 for Tlusty respectively) are a tad similar. They didn't have spectacular possession numbers, started a slight majority of their shifts in the defensive zone and faced similar opponents in terms of quality of competition. The most glaring similarity though comes in the first Copper & Blue article I linked two paragraphs earlier and that's the effect of good linemates. Much of Brule's success in his breakout year was attributed to playing with Dustin Penner during his career season. Likewise, Tlusty's success can possibly be attributed to Eric Staal.

I examined this a couple months ago and determined that Tlusty is a lot more effective when he is playing with Staal. Just about all of Tlusty's underlying numbers went up when he was playing on Staal's line and they took a nose-dive when he wasn't. Another telling stat is that Staal was on ice for 30 of the even strength goals Tlusty scored, which is 71.4% of the 42 he was on-ice for all season. You have to wonder what happens when he isn't playing with Staal.

That being said,Tlusty and Brule have their differences. Brule has a very sketchy injury history and Tlusty's isn't nearly as bad. Tlusty has also been a lot more successful at the AHL level as he was almost a point-per-game player with the Toronto Marlies. He was still in his early 20's during those years, too. It's also possible that he might stay in a top-six role next season and if he can continue to develop chemistry with Staal, then the Hurricanes have themselves a good player locked up for two more years. Tlusty was also somewhat effective in a bottom-six role in 2010-11 in Carolina and proved to be useful even if he wasn't scoring. 

Just about every player has "red flags" that people will point to when it comes time for contract negotiations and Tlusty is no different. The Hurricanes are taking a risk with Tlusty but in today's cap world, a $1.6 mil. cap hit isn't going to severely damage a team beyond repair. If Tlusty can improve on this season or even have something similar to it, then this is a great deal. If not, then the Canes can easily work their way around it. What we don't know is whether or not they will get the Tlusty of this most recent season.

This past season wasn't quite what the Hurricanes fans were hoping for. In fact, it was a lot worse than most of us were expecting and now the finger pointing game has begun with a lot of fans criticisms directed towards General Manager Jim Rutherford. There's definitely a lot of reasons to be upset right now. The Hurricanes have failed to make the playoffs the last three seasons and have finished in the bottom-10 of the league in two of the last three seasons.

How much heat does Rutherford deserve for the Hurricanes problems, though? He's been with the organization for almost 20 years so it's tough to rate his whole body of work, but what we can do is look at some of his recent moves to see how much of Carolina's struggles are on him. Over the last few years, Rutherford has done a mix of both good and bad things for the Hurricanes so it's tough to place the blame solely on him. After the jump, we will take a look at some of those moves and talk about what JR has to do to make the Hurricanes a winning team again.

The Hurricanes might be out of the playoffs but they did release some very good news earlier in the week as the team has signed Brian Dumoulin to an entry-level contract. Dumoulin is rated the team's fourth best prospect and numerous scouts have said that he is NHL ready as of right now so it is very possible that he could be playing in Raleigh next season.

What does this mean for the rest of the defense corps, though? Carolina has five defensemen under contract next season with Jaroslav Spacek and Bryan Allen becoming unrestricted free agents and Jamie McBain being a restricted free agent. McBain will likely be retained but there is also talk that Allen might be re-signed, as well. Should that happen, that means Carolina will have essentially the same defense next season as they did last year but things could easily be very different if both Dumoulin, Ryan Murphy and even Bobby Sanguinetti are impressive enough in training camp to make the team. 

That's when you realize that there's a lot to be excited about with Carolina's defense even though it's in pretty bad shape right now. With Justin Faulk leading the way this year, the Canes could be seeing a massive youth movement on their blue-line as soon as next season. Is letting the kids play the right way to go or should the Canes let Dumoulin & Murphy ease their way in? After the jump, we'll talk about that and look into how different the Hurricanes defense might be come October.

Since the Hurricanes are now out of the playoffs, all that's left to worry about is their draft position. Even with only three games remaining, the Canes draft position can change dramatically because of how cluttered things are at the bottom of the standings.

The Jackets and Oilers have their spots in the lottery all sewn up but the difference between 21st and 27th place is only five points. The Hurricanes can finish the year in 21st or 28th place depending on how they do in these next three games and the other teams' performance will have some impact on that, as well. It's a little odd to think that only two points separate Carolina from a lottery pick right now but things could definitely turn out that way depending on what happens.

Here are the possible scenarios:

If the Hurricanes win out:

The Hurricanes will have 84 points if they win their last three games, the highest they can pick is 6th or 7th depending on how the tie-breaker is decided with the Minnesota Wild should they win out, too. Now, the odds of everyone else also winning out is unlikely (especially with some of these teams having games against each other), so the more realistic result is the Canes picking around 8-10th if they win their last three games. That would put them in a position to take an impact player, but their chances of grabbing one of the top forwards in the draft would decrease if they pick outside the top 5.

If the Hurricanes lose out:

The Hurricanes losing their final three games would mean that they would end up picking in the top five if the Habs win out, the Wild acquire three points and the Islanders, Leafs and Ducks acquire at least two points. If the Hurricanes turn in the kind of effort they had on Saturday, this could very well happen but I honestly hope that doesn't happen. Yes, I would like to see the Hurricanes get a high draft pick but I also want to see this team put forth some effort in their last two games. I didn't see any of that on Saturday and I know Muller is probably thinking the same thing. Either way, if Carolina does drop their remaining three games without securing any points, they will have a good chance of picking in the top five but a lot of it may depend on ohwo the Wild, Islanders, Ducks & Leafs perform in their last fwe games, too. The Ducks have one game in hand so they have a better chance at moving up in the standings.

What will likely happen

Carolina has two games remaining against playoff teams (Ottawa & Florida), one of which has already clinched and they have a game against Montreal on Wednesday. The game against Ottawa could go either way since they already clinched and can't get any higher than 7th place right now. Montreal is getting a lottery pick no matter what, so that game could be a toss-up and I wouldn't be surprised if we see Peter Budaj in net. The Panthers, however, still have not clinched the division or a playoff spot and may still need to by Saturday when they play Carolina on the last game of the season. For their sake, I hope they clinch before then but it could very well come down to the last game of the season, which will make game 82 very interesting for both the Panthers and the Hurricanes.

Things could really go either way with the last three games but I see Carolina finishing in the realm of 7-9th place at the end of the season.

An ongoing issue throughout the season is that neither coach has been rolling four lines as often as fans would like. Ideally, most coaches would like to roll four lines and have their fourth unit out there for around 8-10 minutes a game. The role of the fourth line depends on the coach and under Paul Maurice this season, the fourth line was barely used. That has somewhat changed ever since Kirk Muller took over as head coach as Tim Brent has seen his ice time and his role increase quite a bit, but that hasn't been the case for others. Anthony Stewart and pretty much anyone else who has been plugged on the fourth line, the most recent one being defenseman-converted-to-forward Derek Joslin, have been averaging around 7-8 minutes per game.

With Staal's average ice time being well over 20 minutes for most of the season, I wouldn't mind seeing things more spread out but I think the fourth line itself is part of the problem. What I mean is that it wouldn't hurt to upgrade the personnel we currently have there. However, in order to improve the fourth line, we may need to address other issues in the lineup beforehand.

Jim Rutherford has already stated that one of his intentions this off-season is to sign a first-line winger to help out Eric Staal. There is no doubt that this has been a glaring need for the Hurricanes this season as Staal has had to make due with linemates like Jiri Tlusty and Chad LaRose. Those two players are on pace to have career seasons but even then, neither of them gives the Canes a threatening first line so getting an upgrade there will be critical. When thinking of who Rutherford might pursue this off-season, the two big ticket names are Zach Parise and Alexander Semin, both of whom are going to command a hefty contract and have multiple suitors. As much as I love the idea of the Canes signing Parise, the likelihood of him coming to Raleigh seems low, so we need to look for a back-up plan.

Going over the wingers who are set to become UFAs at the end of the season, if the Hurricanes can't land a big name they will probably have to overpay for someone or "buy low" on a quality player who is coming off a bad season. There are actually many of these players available and I could easily see the Hurricanes making a push for one of them. Who are these players and is it the right way for Carolina to go in free agency this offseason? After the jump we'll take a look at this issue.

The Hurricanes were hit with some surprising news yesterday evening as it was announced that forward Jeff Skinner would be suspended two games for "kicking" St. Louis player Scott Nichol with his skate blade during Thursday's game against the Blues. This is the first time that a Hurricanes player has been "Shanabanned" this year and the news surprised a lot of fans because not much was made of this incident by either broadcast team when it happened during the game. It did not miss the eye of Mr. Shanahan, though and Skinner will sit out the next two games.

When looking at the suspension explanation video, you can clearly see that Skinner uses his skate blade in a kicking motion on Nichol in an attempt to make more room for himself. This is in violation of Rule 49.1 and is an extremely dangerous play by Skinner. Martin Havlat was suspended five games for a similar instance in 2005. Skinner absolutely deserves this suspension and there is no debate about that, but this has led to some interesting discussions among Carolina fans about the team's need for an "enforcer" to look out for Skinner.

Anyone who watches Carolina knows that opposing teams have been taking liberties with Skinner ever since he came into the league and its easy to see why. Skinner is younger, smaller and weaker than a lot of his competition in the NHL and it has led to him be on the receiving end of some punishing hits from the likes of Brooks Orpik, Andy Sutton and Mark Fistric. The Hurricanes don't have a designated figher or "tough guy" on their team and Skinner's had to defend himself most of the time and it has led to him doing some pretty bad things between the whistles. The kicking incident that got Skinner suspended was done out of self-defense and he's also resorted to some cheap tactics in an effort to defend himself as of late and I am not a fan of it at all. Skinner is an amazing player and I understand that he has to defend himself despite being at a size and height disadvantage but I want him to be known for his goal-scoring and play-making skills rather than the stuff he resorts to between whistles to defend himself.

This is where the "enforcer" would come into play for most people. The idea is that having a big, intimidating fighter in the lineup will prevent other teams from taking runs at their players but in today's NHL, the role of an enforcer is very limited. Most play only five minutes per game, have little to no hockey skills and generally don't have much of an effect because of the instigator rule. It's a debate that has been run to the ground among hockey bloggers and all I can think of when people bring up a team's "need for an enforcer" is how little of them have much of an effect in the NHL right now. Many teams have tried to make room for a player like that but how many of them actually use these enforcers? Steve MacIntyre has played only 11 games for the Penguins this year, Brian McGrattan has played 30 games for the Nashville Predators, Darcy Hordichuk, Kevin Westgarth and Jody Shelley are healthy scratches on most nights and I don't even need to get into the Joel Rechlicz fiasco in Washington.

I am not sure if an enforcer is needed on the Hurricanes to protect guys like Skinner but what would help is having more of the team's bigger players help defend him. Tim Gleason and Bryan Allen have done this many times in the past and I guess it wouldn't hurt to have them step up their games a little bit. The only problem with them fighting and "roughing up" those who take runs at Skinner is that it normally results in one of them going to the box and that hurts the team because both are two of Carolina's best penalty killers. Anthony Stewart and Derek Joslin are two other players who have been willing to drop the gloves in the past and both are big, physical players that can provide an intimidating presence to opponent's. The issue here is that neither play a lot of minutes and likely will not be on the ice when Skinner is. I could see both of them playing a role similar to an enforcer, only they help the team in other ways besides fighting. Tuomo Ruutu is another player who I can see sticking up for Skinner during scrums and he plays on a line with him almost regularly. 

Skinner is only 19 and he will eventually mature enough physically to fight his own battles but until then, he is going to need some help. Like I just said, he's still a kid and his actions between the whistles show that he still has some learning to do when it comes to picking his battles and defending himself. His teammates can help him out with this area of the game but I do not think that help should come in the form of an enforcer.