The months and weeks before the trade deadline are both my favorite and least favorite time of the season because while it is exciting to see some key players switch teams, it is unbearable to see the hundreds of articles and trade rumors from fans who think that x team can get a big return for a player with an expiring contract. The Hurricanes are going to be sellers this deadline and have a few players whose contracts run out this summer, so there is no shortage of ridiculous rumors surrounding them, especially with scouts from other teams being at all of their games lately. The constant posts saying that "the Hurricanes can get a first round pick for this player" are getting ridiculous and I know that I'm not the only one who feels this way.

Look, we all know where the Canes stand this deadline and that there will be players moved over the next few weeks but those expecting management to clean house this deadline are probably going to be disappointed. The players you want to move at the trade deadline are those who have expiring contracts or ones whose value is at the highest that it likely will be in their career. This is the perfect time to get a team to overpay but that doesn't mean that everyone with an expiring contract will be moved. Remember two years ago when everyone was certain that Ray Whitney will be moved before March? It didn't happen, and while you can say that Rutherford made a mistake by letting him walk away for nothing, it shows that not everyone is going to be traded to make room for younger players. The cap floor is going to make it even more difficult to trade for just draft picks.

Let's face it, the trade deadline might be the most overhyped day in sports and most people seem to have a tough time remembering that. That is why I came up with a few tips for Canes fans so that we can make it through the next few months without going insane.

Jim Rutherford has been a busy man this week as he made his second trade in four days by dealing winger Alexei Ponikarovsky to the New Jersey Devils for a 2012 4th round pick and defenseman Joe Sova. The timing of this trade may have been a bit weird, but I think it is safe to say that we all saw a move like this coming. Ponikarovsky is a pending unrestricted free agent and signed to a cheap $1.5 mil. contract so he was probably the easiest to move even if his performance in Carolina hasn't been great. My belief was that a team looking for a depth forward would give up a mid-round pick for him and that's pretty much what happened here. It's not a blockbuster trade or anything but it's a deal that works for both teams and should tell us a little bit about the market over the next few weeks. 

My expectations for Ponikarovsky were pretty low when we signed him because of the season he had in Los Angeles but I was slightly optimistic because a lot of his struggles were related to decreased ice-time and weak line-mates. I figured a return to top-six minutes would help him rebound but his 7 goals and 15 points in 49 games indicate that hasn't been the case. With guys like Zac Dalpe, Drayson Bowman, Jerome Samson and even Zach Boychuk looking to earn ice time in the NHL, some players are going to be moved and Ponikarovsky ended up being the first odd man out.

So why would the Devils want someone who can't score? Well, I don't know if you have looked at their roster lately but their bottom-six depth is pretty brutal, especially at left wing. After Zach Parise and Patrik Elias, they don't have any left wingers who can drive possession and/or play against tough competition. That's where Ponikarovsky fits in. They should be able to get an instant upgrade at LW on their third line with him and make their forward corps a little more deep as they push towards the playoffs.

Poni may have "lost his scoring touch" ever since he left Toronto in 2010, but one thing he is consistently good at is getting the puck moving in the right direction. In fact, he was one of the Hurricanes better forwards at driving possession and is performing slightly above the team average at creating scoring chances. The problem is that none of the pucks have been going in for him or his teammates. Ponikarovsky is getting about two shots on net per game and is on pace for only 12 goals, but his shooting percentage is only 7.1% and the Canes are shooting the puck at only 4.61% at even strength when he is on the ice. So, luck hasn't exactly been on Poni's side this year and it is possible that he may rebound. The Devils made a good low-risk move by trading for him since they had nine picks in this coming draft and Sova doesn't appear to be in their plans.

The biggest concern I had about trading Poni was that the Canes would get little to no value in return and they actually got more back than I thought. A fourth round pick probably means nothing to the Devils with their surplus of draft picks and that alone is worth Ponikarovsky to me. Getting a prospect along with him makes me like this deal a little more from Carolina's perspective.

For those of you who know nothing about Sova, the Devils blog In Lou We Trust has a fantastic write-up about him here where Britton Anderson gives some details on how Sova's game has developed at college. For those of you who want the Cliff Notes version, I will explain it here. Sova is talented offensive defeseman who attended the University of Alaska-Fairbanks for three years before signing with the Albany Devils. While at college, he was well known for his strong two-way game and was excellent at working the powerplay, which is where he accumulated most of his points. He is also known for his hard slapshot, which could make him a nice addition to the Charlotte Checkers lineup but Anderson notes that his decision making in the defensive zone is his biggest issue. He has spent this most recent season with the Kalamazoo Wings in the ECHL and Albany Devils of the AHL and his offensive productionfrom college has yet to carry over in either. (11 points in 31 games between the two leagues). It doesn't look like he has much of a future in the NHL but there's some potential here and I'm sure we'll find something to do with him.

In short, we got a mid-round pick and a prospect for a rental, which is pretty good in my book. There are going to be more trades coming from the Canes the next month or so and the players we have on the block right now will probably get us a much bigger return than what Ponikarovsky went for, so I would be cautiously optimistic about the trade deadline.

Most of us have been waiting for Jim Rutherford to make a few trades and he did so last night by dealing forwards Jon Matsumoto and Mattias Lindstrom to the Florida Panthers in exchange for forwards Evgeny Dadonov and AJ Jenks. This trade likely won't much in the grand scheme of things but it does make sense for both teams. Florida needs forward depth for their AHL team in San Antonio and Matsumoto is the Charlotte Checkers leading point-getter. Carolina, on the other hand, needs more forward prospects that are close to being NHL ready and Dadonov fits the bill there. You can never have too many good prospects or players under 25, so I do like this trade for the Hurricanes even if Dadonov never pans out in the NHL, which is very possible.

The other two prospects in this deal could also have an impact but Dadonov appears to be the centerpiece because he has prior NHL experience and has the highest ceiling. He is a very skilled and talented player who possesses a solid two-way game but hasn't been a top-point producer at the KHL or AHL level, which does show some cause for concern but he was a very useful player for the Florida Panthers last year and could serve the Hurricanes well, too. We'll explore Dadonov and what he can do for the Hurricanes after the jump.

In the wake of the article I posted about Chad LaRose and Jerome Samson's performance last night, there's been some debate about how what LaRose does can be easily replaced. First, we need to talk about what exactly a "replaceable player" is. In baseball and hockey, statisticians throw around the word "replacement level player" to describe a player who can be easily replaced by a call-up from the minors. Fourth liners and back-up goalies are the most common example of this. A player who is just replaceable is very different than one who is "replacement level." It basically means that his role can be played by someone else for less money and losing him would not set the team back that much. The new player filling in for him could be better or worse. Is LaRose "replaceable" or "replacement level." Samson's performance is making some people lean towards the latter but that isn't completely true.

Yes, Samson made not having LaRose in the lineup virturally noticeable last night, but it was just one game and Samson was by far Carolina's best forward last night. That won't be the case with every game but if Samson can play like that on a consistent basis, then we can start talking about shipping out players to make room for him. You could argue that he may not get another chance but he's earned himself a few more NHL games after last night, in my opinion. Still, to say that everything LaRose does can be replaced by an AHL call-up isn't neccesarily true when you look into everything he's been doing this year. LaRose ranks third in quality of competition faced among forwards, starts only 42.2% of his draws in the offensive zone and has been contributing on both the powerplay and the penalty kill. Add in his 11 goals and 21 points and I don't think you can call him a replacement level player who can be subbed out of the lineup by anyone without a problem. However, LaRose IS replaceable but that does not mean he is a bad player. 

He does a lot of good things for the team and would be a productive third liner just about everywhere he goes. Third liners can be found just about anywhere for a low cost, though. There are some who are better than others but for the most part, production from third liners can be replaced even if it doesn't happen immediately. A good example of a replaceable third liner is former Tampa Bay Lightning heavy-lifter Sean Bergenheim. He was one of Tampa Bay's best possession forwards despite constantly being thrown out in the defensive zone by coach Guy Boucher. He also killed penalties and modestly chipped in on offense (never scored more than 30 points in a season). He cashed in on a strong playoff performance and is now a Florida Panther and Tampa Bay signed Tom Pyatt and Ryan Shannon to replace him, both of whom are making less than $1 mil. this season. These three aren't nearly as good as Bergenheim but they both play a similar role and cost a lot less. Steve Yzerman was smart to let Bergenheim walk because while it is unpopular to let a fan-favorite go, Bergenheim's role in Tampa Bay could be done for a lot less than the $2.75 mil. he is making in Florida right now.

LaRose is signed to a cheap contract for the next few years and is giving the Canes a lot for the $1.9 they are paying him right now. He is also on pace to have a career year offensively but according to the VUKOTA projection I made for him, there's a good chance that this season is an aberration if he gets above 35 points. What I am trying to say here is that I would not rule out LaRose's name when if comes to players that might be traded. Make no mistake about it, LaRose has been one of the Hurricanes better players this season but what he does can be replaced and his value now could be at an all-time high.

Does this mean he will be traded? No, but his name could be on the block since there might be a lot of teams looking for a quality third liner signed a cheap contract. He's been a big part of the Canes this year but he can be replaced but remember, that isn't a knock against him. Hell, I can think of only three or four players on this team right now that aren't replaceable and I would likely trade LaRose before someone like Tuomo Ruutu, who might be on the block, as well.

My question to you is what players on the Canes do you see as replaceable and which ones are at "replacement level?"

With the Anaheim Ducks in complete freefall mode, GM Bob Murray made a shocking announcement that everyone with the exception of Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu are "fair game" in regards to a trade. Yes, that includes star forwards Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan and Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry along with defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky and goaltender Jonas Hiller. No, this doesn't mean that all of these guys are going to be traded, it just means that Murray is wiling to listen to offers for them. Despite that, the news of this breaking out has caused hockey fans all over the Internet to go into a frenzy because they think that their team can somehow land Perry, Ryan, Getzlaf, etc. without remembering that big trades like that do not happen very often during the season. I can't recall the number of times I have heard proposed deals for a big-time player not happen so I take trade rumors with a huge grain of salt.

That said, the Ducks are a mess right now. They are sitting at 14th in the Western Conference, have a very unimpressive prospect pool and do not exactly have a lot when it comes to depth or cap room. They haven't been good for years (playoff appearance last year was due to a ton of good fortune) so this is a perfect time to rebuild if they wish to go that path since Perry, Ryan and Getzlaf could fetch a decent return that might help them rebuild. Does this mean that they will be traded this year? No, but there is a good possibility that they might.

Now, I have heard some people make a case for the Hurricanes making a trade with the Ducks for one of the aforementioned players and I honestly don't see it working out. Yes, having an elite winger like Perry or Ryan would be fantastic but in order to get one of those players, we would need to give up a lot (i.e. one of our top prospects) and the Canes just aren't in position to do that right now. I know that Ryan is still very young, signed for four more years and can reasonably fit into the Canes rebuilding plan but I still don't know if giving up prospects is the right thing to do right now. Also, three of Carolina's best prospects are offensive defensemen (Faulk, Murphy, Dumoulin) and Anaheim already has one of those in Cam Fowler so this is why I do not see the Ducks and Canes working out as trade partners.

Carolina is more likely to be a seller this deadline with the team being out of contention and having a few expiring contracts on hand, but let's say there is a deal like the Erik Johnson/Chris Stewart trade from last year and the Canes do get some kind of offer. Who would be on the team's "untouchable" list?The Ducks have made it clear who they aren't going to deal (although their choices are a bit odd), so who should Carolina hold onto as the deadline approaches?

Fortunately for the Canes, they are in better shape than the Ducks when it comes to organizational depth and future plans, so they can afford to hold onto a lot more players. Here is my list of guys that I would not deal.

Whenever the Hurricanes play the Senators, all I can think of is how Ottawa has never learned their lesson with goaltenders. What I mean by that is they have spent big money on goaltenders and took unnecessary risks on them despite evidence showing how volatile the position. Ever since the lockout, they have gone through six different starting goalies and have spent a total of approximately $31,613,000 on them, which is equal to a little over $5 mil per season. The worst part of it is that they haven't gotten much value for any of their goalies after the lockout which makes me wonder why GM Bryan Murray keeps making the same mistakes when it comes to signing goaltenders. It seems that almost every time Ottawa finds a goalie who performs well, they decide to ink him to a 3+ year deal with a cap hit that's a little above $3+ mil. and get little to no value in return for that. They recently did this with Craig Anderson who put up a .939 save percentage after the Sens traded for him in February last year. is even strength save percentage this year is now only .904, way below the league average which shows how Ottawa still has not learned their lesson with goalies.

I know it sounds weird to let someone who performed so well just walk away but the fact is that for the most part, goaltending is very unpredictable and the Senators keep taking large risks on it with things like the Anderson contract. It's ridiculous when you go back in history and see how many similar mistakes they have made, which we'll look at after the jump.

It was announced the other day that Justin Faulk would not be joining Team USA for the World Junior Championship and will be staying on the Hurricanes for the time being. The general consensus seems to be that Faulk is here for the rest of the year, especially with Joni Pitkanen out indefinitely. However, the team still has seven NHL defensemen even with Pitkanen on the IR, which means we have at least one healthy body available every night. Now, it's always nice to have an extra player available with injuries being abundant in the NHL this year, but keeping a player in the press box for consecutive games isn't the best for their development which is why many believe it would have been a wise decision to let Faulk play in the WJC. Faulk, obviously, is not the guy sitting in the press box though. That person is either Jay Harrison or Derek Joslin as neither can be sent to the AHL without clearing waivers first.

Are Harrison and Joslin superior to Faulk? No, but one thing Faulk has that they don't is the ability to be sent to the AHL without needing to clear waviers. Of course, that would imply that Joslin and Harrison are outperforming Faulk, which hasn't been the case. However, one thing I notice when I do my scoring chance reports is that Faulk has been on the negative side of the spectrum more times than not. With the coaches using him against the likes of Claude Giroux, Evgeni Malkin, Mike Cammalleri and Jason Spezza, it is very possible that he might be in over his head. While Faulk's defensive game is coming along much faster than anyone could have imagine, he's known to be more of an offense-first blue-liner and the shutdown role might not be right for him at only 19 years of age. 

I understand that organizations want to get the maximum value out of a player during the entry-level years of his contract and using Faulk in a sheltered, offensive role with Jaroslav Spacek, Jamie McBain or Jay Harrison in a slightly sheltered role might seem like the team is wasting an entry level year, but putting Faulk into a position where he can excel is what the team should do if he's going to be staying in the NHL. Faulk's scoring chance rate is currently at 46.6%, which is roughly the team average. His corsi percentage, however, is well below the team average at 40.6 sort of indicates that Faulk is not ready for the NHL yet, at least not in the role he's been playing this year.

The problem with sheltering Faulk is that there are other defensemen on the team who would benefit from the same kind of treatment, namely McBain. Also, Faulk has gotten the benefit of easier zone starts compared to the rest of the defensemen as his 50.8 OZone% is third highest behind Spacek and Joslin and he is only ranked fourth among defensemen in quality of competition. Which means that Faulk has been protected in the lineup but is still struggling a bit, which could indicate that he's not completely ready for the NHL yet.

Faulk's game looks good by the eyes but he has shown some inconsistencies and I can see why people think that the Canes should have let him play on Team USA in the WJC. He'll be the team's best defenseman, play around 25 minutes a night and have a chance to be a huge part of Team USA's run in the tournament. People will obviously see that as a bigger experience for him than playing sheltered minutes on a bottom-feeding Carolina team. Although, it's not as if Faulk hasn't played a big role on the Hurricanes because he's loggged over 20 minutes a game ever since his recall and is playing a key role on the powerplay. Also, he is a much better option than Joslin who has put up worse possession numbers than Faulk with easier ice time. I think most Canes fans would be more comfortable having Faulk in the lineup over him even if it is only for a few weeks.

With only 17 NHL games under his belt, we may have to wait a little longer to determine whether or not Faulk will stick with this team for the rest of the year. Early on it seemed like he was a keeper but his lapses in the defensive zone have been increasing lately so I think the next month will be key for him. As of now, he is a better option than Joslin so I see him staying in the NHL for the time being (not sure what will happen with Joslin) but how effective he will be and what role he will be used is a great question. It's great that Faulk is playing big minutes so early in his career but the underlying numbers show that he may not be fully ready for that kind of responsibility so early in his career. Ultimately, I would like him to see him used with Spacek or Harrison in a 2nd/3rd pair role, with some protection because I think that's where he'll be the most effective. At least that's how I would like things to see with the current defense corps. When Pitkanen comes back and when/if there are a few trades involving the Canes blue-liners in the next few months, it's a whole different story.

We're almost at the end of 2011 and the Hurricanes have only won 10 games, so I think it's safe to say that the post-season is highly unlikely at this point. What does this mean for the team now? I've heard "Fail for Nail" thrown around a bunch of times but is tanking for a high draft pick going to solve all of our problems? Yes, it has worked for Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington and a few others but the risks that come with it might not be worth the reward. Just ask Islanders and Thrashers fans.

Now, I understand the rationale for getting a high draft pick this year because the team is going absolutely nowhere this season and getting another Jeff Skinner-type prospect in the system would help this team a lot in the long-run. It's not as if the Canes are completely bare in terms of prospects either as GM Jim Rutherford has done a great job at acquiring picks and talent the last few years but is it enough to have this organization set for the future? We don't know that because draft picks are not always a sure thing but with the team having issues scoring and producing offense, it might be time to evaluate some of the talent we have in the organization.

Is it going to turn things around this season? Not likely, but one step to rebuilding is getting the younger players more experience with the big club and we're beginning to see some progress with that in Drayson Bowman most recent call-up.

More after the jump.

The sun is shining bright in Raleigh today as Tomas Kaberle and his three-year $12.75 mil. contract were traded to Montreal for defenseman Jaroslav Spacek. Joy and exuberance seems to be the initial reaction among Canes fans and I can't say that I don't blame them. Kaberle is a player on the decline of his career and has gone from unlucky to bad to dreadful over the course of two months.

Aside from the three year committment, Kaberle was hurting the team by taking most of the offensive zone starts for blue liners and doing next to nothing with them. When you are getting ice-time that easy, you damn well better put up some offense and Kaberle has not. He has nine points in 24 games, was underwater in terms of scoring chances and corsi for most of the season and was generally ineffective and not worth the $4.25 mil price tag. Yes, Kaberle was not getting any bounces going in his favor (team shooting a little above 5% with him on-ice) but he certainly was not playing well at all. With thee other offensive minded defensemen already on the team, giving Kaberle the cushy zone starts to do nothing was bringing down the rest of the team. GM Jim Rutherford was not going to let this continue for the next three years so he made the right move by putting him on the block and trading him. Now that he is gone, this should give the Canes more flexibility with their defense corps and Muller/Lewis can decide which players they want to protect.

The only downside to this deal? We get Jaroslav Spacek, another defenseman on the decline of his career (37 years old) and was playing extremely sheltered minutes in Montreal this year. Once upon a time, Spacek was a good all-around defenseman and even played on Montreal's shutdown pair for a lot of the 2009-10 season, but those days have gone by the wayside. He doesn't appear to be anything more than a second pairing defenseman, and I'm being generous there. That said, his contract expires after this season and the Canes could have some use for him as a third pairing defenseman should an injury occur. I've heard people say that "he can't be worse than Kaberle" and well...I guess that's true when you factor in each player's expectations.

Honestly, I wasn't expecting to get anything in return for Kaberle given he was a healthy scratch only two weeks ago and a possible buyout candidate at the end of the year but Rutherford managed to find a GM who would actually trade for his contract...and give up an NHL-level player in return. You have to give him some marks for that as Rutherford knew the Kaberle signing was a mistake and trading him to free up roster space and cap room for next year was a great trade on his part.

This is more of a bad deal for Montreal than it is a good deal for the Canes, though. Yes, getting rid of Kaberle's contract is huge but the return is minimal. The fact that Montreal traded for Kaberle is mind boggling. I know they have injuries on their defense but when you have a team that's already spending close to the cap, has three key players that need new contracts this summer (Gorges, Subban & Price) and yet, they decide to trade for a struggling defenseman who is due over $12 mil the next three years. They might have been better off giving Bryan McCabe a call and signing him for one year. My suspicion is that Andrei Markov's injury is career-threatening because I can not think of any other explanation for this. It is entirely possible that Kaberle turns it around in Carolina because, as I mentioned earlier, he wasn't getting much puck luck in Carolina but he wasn't playing well at all.

All in all, a good deal for Carolina. I expect more dead weight to be dropped in the coming weeks.

With the now Winnipeg Jets being stuck in the Southeast Division, you had to figure that some sort of realignment would happen soon. The NHL announced yesterday that the governors had approved the NHL's new plan for realignment which could take effect as early as next season. Instead of two conferences and six divisions, the league will be separated into four different conferences. The teams will be divided as such:

Conference A: Anaheim, Calgary, Colorado, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Jose, Vancouver
Conference B: Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, Nashville, St. Louis, Winnipeg
Conference C: Boston, Buffalo, Florida, Montreal, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Toronto
Conference D: Carolina, New Jersey, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington

Each team will play their conference opponents six times a year (three at home, three on the road) and they will also play every other team once at home and once on the road. This really helps ease the travel issues with some Western teams (namely Minnesota, Detroit, Columbus & Nashville), especially with the way the new conferences are set up. The other change made was a new playoff format where the top four teams from each conference will face each other in the playoffs (1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3) with the winners facing each other in the next round and then the remaining two teams will play for the Cup. How the semi-finals will be seeded will be decided later and there is a possibility we could see two teams from the East or West playing each other in the post-season. 

My thoughts:

• I like the new conferences. It makes sense geographically for everything aside from Conference C but I'll touch on that later. Minnesota really needed to be placed in a difference conference to suit them geographically and they got it. The same also applies to Dallas who also had travel issues.
• The two Florida teams in Conference C makes sense because those two arenas will get a lot of ticket sales when Montreal, Toronto, etc. visit them. It does create a problem with them in regards to traveling, though.
• One thing I do not understand with this realignment is keeping Detroit and Columbus out West. They won't have to travel as much as they did before but there's an uneven number of teams in the East and West now despite there being two teams in the Eastern Time Zone in one of the two Western Conferences. That just doesn't make sense to me.
• I am not a fan of the new playoff format at all, especially with the way the new divisions are set-up. The Western teams are going to save money by not having to travel so much but they will pay for it come playoff time. It's still uncertain if they will keep the "East/West" monikers but if they do, then there's 8 out of 16 teams in the West going for a playoff spot and 8 out of only 14 teams in the East. A below average team in the Eastern conference can make the playoffs while a good team in the West will be left out. Not only that, but this "conference playoff" idea is just silly to me. I get that they want the "best" teams to make it in but if you only allow four teams from a conference, that is going to lave a lot of good teams out of the post-season while a decent team from a weak division can get in.
  
  Take Conference A for example, let's say that Edmonton, LA, San Jose and Vancouver all get in but Phoenix has 90-something points and is left out. Meanwhile, you could have a team like Toronto or Ottawa with 80-something points make the playoffs and win their division because they play weaker opponents. I don't understand the point of the regular season and playing six conference games if you are going to make them face each other again in the playoffs.
• From Carolina's perspective, this is going to be a tough challenge. If they decide to keep the new playoff rules, then the Canes will be forced to compete with Philly, Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey AND New York to even get close to the playoffs. That is some tough competition but this is my response to that is "I, for one, welcome our new Atlantic overlords."
  
  
• Supposedly they made the conferences the way they are to make it easier to add an expansion team. The NHL has a competitive disadvantage even with the cap so I don't think this is a good idea. If a team like Phoenix were to move then that would make things easier but I still believe the odds of that happening are slim.
  
  
• This is definitely going to take some getting used to and I think there's a few things that need to be ironed out but I do like the new conferences.