New York Islanders (13-17-16) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (13-21-6)
7 p.m. RBC Center
TV: MSG+

It's a battle for the bottom of the Eastern Conference as the Hurricanes take on the New York Islanders. Both of these teams are in the "Fail for Nail" sweepstakes and if there is one team that's shown the dangers of using "tanking for a high draft pick" as a silver lining, it's the Islanders. This team has not made the playoffs in four (soon to be five) years and finished at the bottom of the Atlantic division in all of those year. During that time (and before that) they accumulated high draft picks like Josh Bailey, John Tavares, Calvin De Hann, Kyle Okposo and Jesse Joensuu and despite that, they are still stuck at the bottom of the conference even though they should be improving on paper. The Islanders are the exact reason why I am worried for the Canes if they choose to completely blow up their core and rebuild from scratch again. Sure, it's worked for the Capitals, Blackhawks and Penguins but people need to remember that high draft picks are not always a sure thing when it comes to turning franchises around so there is a ton of risk involved with tanking. A high draft pick would help the Canes a lot but let's not pretend like that will fix all of our problems immediately.

As for the actual game tonight, we'll discuss that after the jump

At the end of November, I came up with a narrative called "The March Towards .500" where the Hurricanes corsi, fenwick and scoring chance rates were slowly improving and that there was a realistic chance of the Canes getting over 50% in both of those categories even if the team wasn't winning. Well, the team was ".500" with a 5-5-2 record in the month of December but their scoring chance percentages actually regressed. It wasn't anything extreme (Scoring chances are sitting at 47.3% at even strength right now) there wasn't much progress being shown from the end of November. However, the shot charts that Gabe Desjardins cooked up show that the team's underlying numbers are slightly better compared to what they were under Paul Maurice. They are still a long ways away from reaching that .500 mark.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the individual scoring chances after three months. We'll be looking at both raw data and scoring chance numbers adjusted for zone starts. We will do that starting after the jump

Happy New Year, Caniacs and what better way to bring in 2012 than to recap the Canes performance from the final week? They closed out 2011 with a 2-2-0 record which included a thrilling overtime win and two stinkers against Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, although the latter was not as bad as the score indicates. The only time they got shellacked was against Pittsburgh where they were outchanced 21-9 at even strength and it led to them having a 47.6% scoring chacne ratio at even strength for the week. The Canes did not have one "full 60-minute" effort this week and that's a problem which has been plaguing them all season long, but there were some good performances this week. Their effort against the Devils was very good and so was their game against the Leafs and we'll see them win more games if they can put together more performances like that. The problem is that they seem to make one mistake that leads to them giving up consecutive goals. I expect things like that to happen with a rebuilding team, though and hopefully they will grow out of it soon.

Still, a 2-2-0 record is not too bad of a note to close out the year even if they are struggling against good teams (i.e. Pittsburgh). Seven out of their 12 games in January are at home so that should help things a little bit.

More after the jump

As of last Monday, the Canes have a new goal-scoring leader and his name is Tuomo Ruutu. With 14 goals and 22 points in 40 games, Ruutu is having a very good season and is on-pace to break a personal record for goals in a season. Ruutu is also set to become an unrestricted free agent once the season is over and with the Hurricanes out of the playoff race, it has many wondering if we should deal the 28-year old Finn. I'm not a huge fan of the whole "the team sucks, trade everyone for peanuts" mindset because if the team is going to give up Ruutu, then they better make damn sure that we get something of value back in return.

Ruutu is one of six regular forwards on the team with a positive scoring chance rating, is playing on (arguably) the team's only scoring line and has been a key part to the team's offense. If we do lose him then it will have a negative effect on the rest of the team this year. There are plenty of good reasons for dealing Ruutu, though. For one, he is on pace for his highest goal total since he is pushing 30, his value right now might be higher than it ever will be. He could fetch a solid return at the deadline for the Hurricanes to work with and it is better than letting him walk for nothing this summer.

In my opinion, the only time you should trade a player is in the following circumstances:

1. He is a pending unrestricted free agent and the team he plays for is in rebuild mode.
2. The potential free agent market is very thin and said team will have to overpay to sign him.
3. This player is at the point where his value is at its peak.

The first two are true, but is Ruutu's value at its highest point right now? When it comes to re-signing players, Jonathan Willis of Oilers Nation looks for things called "red flags" which are reasons why committing years and money to a free agent might not be worth the risk. Are there any "red flags" with Ruutu? We'll look into that after the jump.

Carolina's last game of 2011 was strikingly similar to their last game of the 2010-11 season as they gave up four unanswered goals to the Tampa Bay Lightning and took home a 5-2 loss. This game felt a lot more lopsided than the underlying numbers indicate but that's probably just a hangover from the three goals they gave up in the third period and the awful defensive play exhibited during then. Keep in mind that Carolina was only outshot 26-23 at even strength, had a 2-1 lead during the second period and looked pretty good for most of that time. Then Chad LaRose took a penalty late in the second period which carried over into the next frame and Carolina was Stamkos'd* shortly after. The inevitable third period meltdown, similar to what happened in the season opener, followed. Definitely a horrible sight to witness because it's never fun to blow a lead and it's even less fun to give up a hat trick but I don't think this was a terribly played game by the Hurricanes. It was just a horrible stretch of play in the third period along with some bad decisions that ended up sinking the team. Again.

We'll explore the ups and downs of this game after the jump

*Stamkos'd is my new word for a goal that comes off a slapshot from inside the face-off circle. It's happened to us and so many other teams that I figured it should get its own phrase.

Carolina Hurricanes (13-20-6) at Tampa Bay Lightning (17-16-3)
5:00 p.m., St. Pete Times Forum
TV: FS-Carolinas, Sun Sports

Assuming that realignment gets approved by the NHLPA, this will be the final year that the Canes and Bolts will be divisional "rivals" and will no longer have to play them six times a year. Part of me will miss that because I always look forward to our divisional tilts with the Lightning (although two out of the last three I'd like to forget) and it will feel weird not playing them as often. The realignment is going to have a bigger effect on the Bolts, though as they move to a "conference" that features Boston, Ottawa, Montreal, Buffalo, Toronto and....the Florida Panthers. It's basically a way for the NHL to sell tickets in the Florida teams because of all the snowbirds. I'll miss the Bolts as our Southeastern adversaries, though. When you play in the Southeast for so long you eventually get attached to the teams here, which is why the Thrashers moving also bummed me out.

Anyway, back to some real hockey talk now. If you've been reading my recaps, you'll remember that Justin Faulk and Jay Harrison are being used as the team's shutdown pair and, much to my suprise, they have been very successful. They had a rough outing against Evgeni Malkin and James Neal on Tuesday but they effectively neutralized Phil Kessel, Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise in previous games. Brandon Sutter has also played a big role in this as the team's main defensive forward with Patrick Dwyer out of the lineup. I am not banking on this to sustain because neither have blown away their competition this year but if it does, then I won't be complaining. Tonight's going ot be another tough test for them as they have the duty of keeping Steven Stamkos off the score sheet. Challenge accepted? Let's hope so.

Lines, analysis & notes after the jump

I'm a little late due to complications with Game Center Live and a few other things, but I figured it was better to get the scoring chances from this game posted at some point. There won't be much analysis because I'm sure most of you have seen the game and know what happened by now. I will say that this was a great overall game from the Hurricanes. Despite giving up two goals in the third period, they looked strong for the entire sixty minutes and dominated this contest at even strength by out-chancing the Devils there 15-9. They did get a bit of an advantage thanks to three powerplays and the Devils playing with a shortened benched, but it was one of the better games the Canes played all season. Feel like I've been saying that a lot ever since Kirk Muller took over.

Scoring chances & more after the jump.

Game Notes:
Event Summary
Corsi/Fenwick Data
Play-by-Play
Head-to-Head
Faceoffs

Don't look now, but the Hurricanes have won three of their last four and won yet another scoring chance battle. Tuesday's disaster against Pittsburgh aside, this team has looked improved over the past week, but they have gotten some help with the number of one-goal games but it is a lot better than going through a losing streak. It also helps to draw a penalty in overtime against an AWFUL Leafs penalty kill which helped Eric Staal record his second goal of the night to win it for the Canes in overtime. Carolina played a great game overall and got one of the strongest defensive efforts from Brandon Sutter, Justin Faulk and Jay Harrison, but they didn't fully wake up until the the third period where they fell behind 3-1...and then went onto record seven consecutive scoring chances, tie the game and eventually pick up the two points in overtime.

If we can get more efforts like what we saw in the third period then there should be some great things to come from this team. Sadly, one great period does not make a team great and if the team did play like they did in the third period all the time then they wouldn't be sitting where they are in the standings right now. It'll be a long process but let's enjoy the victory for now and hope we can see more performances like this.

Abbreviated version due to server issues.

Toronto Maple Leafs (18-14-4) at Carolina Hurricanes (12-20-6)
7 p.m. RBC Center
TV: FS-Carolinas, Leafs TV

It took a super-human effort from Cam Ward to get the Canes a point the last time they played the Leafs, so hopefully he won't need to stand on his head tonight for the Canes to win. Carolina has given up 30 or more shots in at least 20 games this season and I'm not sure if that's first in the NHL but I would not be surprised if it is. They are tied with the Minnesota Wild for the most shots allowed per 60 minutes at even strength and this is one thing that needs to change if the Hurricanes want to start winning more games. Hence why I will consider tonight's game a moral victory if the team gives up less than 25 shots...although that prediction could come back to bite me in the ass if the Leafs manage to win despite that.

Lines & more after the jump

Hurricanes

Tlusty - Staal - Dalpe
Ponikarovsky - Jokinen - Ruutu
Bowman - Sutter - LaRose
Stewart - Brent - Nodl

Gleason - McBain
Faulk - Harrison
Allen - Spacek

Ward

Leafs

MacArthur - Bozak - Kessel
Kulemin - Grabovski - Frattin
Kadri - Connolly - Lupul
Boyce - Steckel - Crabb

Phaneuf - Aulie
Gunnarsson - Schenn
Gardiner - Franson

Reimer

What happpened last time?

Canes had a good 10 minutes and had a powerplay in the first period but after that? All Toronto. Like I said, Cam Ward had to stand on his head to even earn the Canes a point, which he did. That and a timely powerplay goal late in the third from the former Leaf Alexei Ponikarovsky. Carolina's seen some changes to their forward corps with Tlusty and Dalpe now on the first line and Chad LaRose having third line duties with Drayson Bowman now. LaRose is coming off an awful game so I'm hoping to see a rebound from him. The Leafs lines have been changed a bit too as Keith Aulie is filling in for John-Michael Liles who is out with a concussion. He'll be playing on the top-pairing with Phaneuf, which is where he played for most of last year. Colby Armstrong is also out with a concussion and the former first round pick Nazem Kadri is playing in his spot. He's had a very successful call-up with two goals in three games and might stick around for a little longer if he can stay consistent. You'll also notice that Joffrey Lupul has been moved down to the third line with Clark MacArthur getting a promotion to the first unit. MacArthur isn't one of the Leafs better possession players but he's got four points in three games, which is good enough to earn that promotion. Our defense pairings may have their hands full if Mikhail Grabovski can build on that two-goal performance against Florida or if Tim Connolly can work well on the third line. Speaking of which, Bozak has been inferior to Connolly all year so I'm curious as to why he's playing with Kessel on the first line.

One last note, Tuomo Ruutu has a six game point streak while Eric Staal hasn't recorded a point in six games. I'd be willing to trade one streak for another if you know what I'm saying.

Enjoy the game.

The month of December has been quite a ride for Cam Ward. He's been pulled in two games, has given up three or more goals in all but three games and has a save percentage of .882. On the flip-side, he also played two of his best games of the season against Toronto and Vancouver and has shown signs of looking like his older self. And people wonder why I never try to predict goalie performance....

It's especially difficult to predict how a goalie Ward's age will perform because he is in his late 20's, which is the "prime" age for most hockey players but he also debuted at a young age so that's worth keeping in mind. To make things even more difficult, Ward is coming off his best season as an NHL-er so his performance can really go in either direction at this point. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, his performance has declined a ton compared to last season and while it's not completely his fault, I'm sure no one saw him having a sub .900 save percentage this late into the season. Some people say that he's still feeling all of the mileage that he took on last year and that's a valid argument. He did play more minutes than any other goalie last season (4318 mins.) and saw 30+ shots in 48 out of the 74 games he played and has been under the same amount of pressure this season (has seen 30+ shots in 17 out of 32 games), so maybe this is just his workload catching up to him?

Over at Broad Street Hockey, they looked at Ilya Bryzgalov's save percentage in line-graph form going by 10-game averages. Bryz has been awful this year and looking at how he has performed over his career and seeing his highs and lows is a good way to determine if his poor play was just a rough patch or him steadily declining. They determined that Bryz is playing the worst hockey of his career but history suggests that he should rebound. When reading that article I thought to myself "Hey, you know another great goalie who is playing bad right now? Cam Ward." so I decided to do this experiment for myself. Every goalie can be expected to go through peaks and valleys so is Ward's current play just one of those? We'll find out after the jump.