One of the most misleading stats in hockey is powerplay and penalty kill percentages because they are driven by variable stats like save and shooting percentage, which regress over time. For instance, a team might have a powerplay that's generates only 1-2 scoring chances per game total, but they are clicking at a 25% efficiency because most of the shots they take end up being goals. That last sentence should tell you that they are getting lucky and how that plays a big role into how "good" or "bad" their powerplay may be. On the penalty kill, you could have a unit that manages to not allow any shots for a minute and fourty five seconds, then a harmless looking wrist shot from the point sneaks past the goaltender and the penalty kill gets tagged for a goal allowed despite doing just about everything right.

The goal of a penalty kill is to prevent as many shots and chances against as possible, which is why I look at those numbers instead for determining how good a team is in that area. Carolina appears to have the 26th ranked penalty kill with a 78.4% success rate according to this metric, which indicates that the PK hasn't improved that much compared to last year. General observation tells you otherwise, which is why we need to dig deeper into the Canes PK to see how "bad" it really is. In terms of shots allowed per 60 minutes, Carolina has the 12th worst PK in the league surrendering about 53 shots per 60 mins. and while that isn't good, it is a hell of an improvement from last season when they were the second worst penalty killing team in the NHL.

Defensemen are generally considered the main players on the penalty kill but forwards play a big role as well. It's their responsibility to win battles along the boards, block shots, win faceoffs and clear the puck which are all critical when killing penalties. Outside of Brandon Sutter and Patrick Dwyer, just about all of Carolina's forwards struggled at killing penalties last season so I wanted to look at their performance so far this season. There are also some personnel changes that have taken place over past year, so going deeper into the forwards performance on the PK will show how much of an effect they've had. The results may surprise you.

More after el salto

There will be games where the team does most things right and plays well enough to win but comes out on the short end due to a few things going awry. Last night's 4-3 loss against the Coyotes was one of those games for the Hurricanes and it's very disappointing because this was one of their better efforts of the season. They had the powerplay going, held the Coyotes to less than 20 even strength shots and were getting a reasonable amount of production from all four lines. If that's the case, then why did they lose? Well, for one they continued their trend of playing awful four-on-four and surrendered the game-winning goal to Lauri Korpikoski in the third period in that situation. Phoenix goaltender Jason LaBarbera also played a very solid game stopping 34 of 37 shots compared to Cam Ward stopping 15 out of 19, although there wasn't much he could do about any of the goals he gave up. Phoenix converting on their one and only powerplay chance also played a factor while the Canes were 0 for 3 on the night despite getting some great looks with the man advantage.

In other words, the bounces went Phoenix's way in some areas but they certainly made the most of their opportunities while Carolina squandered away theirs. They also did a solid job of limited Caroliina's chances at even strength as the scoring chances aren't as lopsided as the shot total for both teams indicates. Phoenix was able to most of Carolina's shots to the outside and didn't allow them into the dangerous areas for much of the third period when they were protecting a 4-3 lead. Receiving a great performance in net like what Phoenix got from LaBarbera last night also helps. 

Scoring chances & more after the jump

It was announced the other day that Justin Faulk would not be joining Team USA for the World Junior Championship and will be staying on the Hurricanes for the time being. The general consensus seems to be that Faulk is here for the rest of the year, especially with Joni Pitkanen out indefinitely. However, the team still has seven NHL defensemen even with Pitkanen on the IR, which means we have at least one healthy body available every night. Now, it's always nice to have an extra player available with injuries being abundant in the NHL this year, but keeping a player in the press box for consecutive games isn't the best for their development which is why many believe it would have been a wise decision to let Faulk play in the WJC. Faulk, obviously, is not the guy sitting in the press box though. That person is either Jay Harrison or Derek Joslin as neither can be sent to the AHL without clearing waivers first.

Are Harrison and Joslin superior to Faulk? No, but one thing Faulk has that they don't is the ability to be sent to the AHL without needing to clear waviers. Of course, that would imply that Joslin and Harrison are outperforming Faulk, which hasn't been the case. However, one thing I notice when I do my scoring chance reports is that Faulk has been on the negative side of the spectrum more times than not. With the coaches using him against the likes of Claude Giroux, Evgeni Malkin, Mike Cammalleri and Jason Spezza, it is very possible that he might be in over his head. While Faulk's defensive game is coming along much faster than anyone could have imagine, he's known to be more of an offense-first blue-liner and the shutdown role might not be right for him at only 19 years of age. 

I understand that organizations want to get the maximum value out of a player during the entry-level years of his contract and using Faulk in a sheltered, offensive role with Jaroslav Spacek, Jamie McBain or Jay Harrison in a slightly sheltered role might seem like the team is wasting an entry level year, but putting Faulk into a position where he can excel is what the team should do if he's going to be staying in the NHL. Faulk's scoring chance rate is currently at 46.6%, which is roughly the team average. His corsi percentage, however, is well below the team average at 40.6 sort of indicates that Faulk is not ready for the NHL yet, at least not in the role he's been playing this year.

The problem with sheltering Faulk is that there are other defensemen on the team who would benefit from the same kind of treatment, namely McBain. Also, Faulk has gotten the benefit of easier zone starts compared to the rest of the defensemen as his 50.8 OZone% is third highest behind Spacek and Joslin and he is only ranked fourth among defensemen in quality of competition. Which means that Faulk has been protected in the lineup but is still struggling a bit, which could indicate that he's not completely ready for the NHL yet.

Faulk's game looks good by the eyes but he has shown some inconsistencies and I can see why people think that the Canes should have let him play on Team USA in the WJC. He'll be the team's best defenseman, play around 25 minutes a night and have a chance to be a huge part of Team USA's run in the tournament. People will obviously see that as a bigger experience for him than playing sheltered minutes on a bottom-feeding Carolina team. Although, it's not as if Faulk hasn't played a big role on the Hurricanes because he's loggged over 20 minutes a game ever since his recall and is playing a key role on the powerplay. Also, he is a much better option than Joslin who has put up worse possession numbers than Faulk with easier ice time. I think most Canes fans would be more comfortable having Faulk in the lineup over him even if it is only for a few weeks.

With only 17 NHL games under his belt, we may have to wait a little longer to determine whether or not Faulk will stick with this team for the rest of the year. Early on it seemed like he was a keeper but his lapses in the defensive zone have been increasing lately so I think the next month will be key for him. As of now, he is a better option than Joslin so I see him staying in the NHL for the time being (not sure what will happen with Joslin) but how effective he will be and what role he will be used is a great question. It's great that Faulk is playing big minutes so early in his career but the underlying numbers show that he may not be fully ready for that kind of responsibility so early in his career. Ultimately, I would like him to see him used with Spacek or Harrison in a 2nd/3rd pair role, with some protection because I think that's where he'll be the most effective. At least that's how I would like things to see with the current defense corps. When Pitkanen comes back and when/if there are a few trades involving the Canes blue-liners in the next few months, it's a whole different story.

Three points in three games this past week for the Canes. That doesn't sound too bad, but they were outshot, outchanced and outscored for yet another week. All three games were decided by only one goal and the fact that two came in losses does show that the Canes were getting slightly unlucky the past week but they were VERY lucky to even escape Toronto with a point and they were outplayed by the Canucks at even strength in their only victory. The numbers for the week match up with the team's overall performance this year, though. Their shot rate was about 46.6 while their chance rate was roughly the same. It is frustrating that we're not seeing much of an improvement in that area under Kirk Muller but we're seeing some improvement on the powerplay with 12 scoring chances generated on the man advantage compared to only 7 powerplay chances given up. Cam Ward also seems to be regaining his usual form and he could steal us some more wins down the road. He did against Vancouver and Carolina may have not have even earned a point in the standings last week if it wasn't for him.

Injuries are playing a big role into the lack of progress, though. Jeff Skinner and Joni Pitkanen were two of the team's best possession drivers and it's going to be interesting to see what the numbers look like with both of them out of the lineup. I have a feeling they won't be pretty though. Most of us have accepted that this team is too far out of the race to make a push towards the playoffs so it's evaluation time from now on.

More after the jump

I could pull out all of the cliches in the world to describe yesterday's 3-2 overtime loss against the Florida Panthers.

"Carolina didn't put together a full sixty minutes."

"Carolina won in every category but the scoreboard."

"One or two silly mistakes cost them the game."

"Florida played to win the game while Carolina played not to lose."

All of those would more or less describe the game against Florida pretty accurately and I feel that the same thing happened in almost every game Carolina has lost in overtime this year. That's not to say the Canes played a bad game because they didn't and they actually had the upper-hand on Florida for a little over 40 minutes. Everything after the second period, though? Awful. The Panthers outshot Carolina 13-3 in the third period and overtime and could only muster up one scoring chance. This came after a strong second period where they were able to take a 2-1 lead but they showed little effort to build on that lead, took stupid penalties and couldn't establish any kind of forecheck.

The bright side? The Canes have earned points in three consecutive games and I suppose you can say that they've earned them.

Scoring chances & more after the jump.

Carolina Hurricanes (10-18-5) at Florida Panthers (17-9-6)
5 p.m., Bank Atlantic Center
TV: FS-Florida

One of the most important things to do during the season is win games in your division, the Hurricanes have only one victory in the Southeast this year. On top of that, they have only gained three points in games against Southeast teams and that's partially the reason why they are in as low in the standings as they are now. Today is a great day to turn things around, though as they take on the suprise team of the Southeast, the Florida Panthers. How long this success lasts is up for debate but it's looking highly likely that the Cats are on pace to make their first playoff apperance in over a decade. However, they have been on the receiving end of a lot of luck this year and that's played a role in their success.

Things like luck and regression are difficult to accept at first because it doesn't make the best story but the truth is that they both play a big role in hockey and can explain hot and cold streaks going on. Goalies are usually the biggest victim of good or bad luck and we've seen a recent example in Cam Ward who has played well below his abilities this year. We know that a sub-.900 save percentage is unsustainable for him and we've already seen him look like his usual self in the last two games, so there's some regression going on right now. Eric Staal was also a victim of bad luck for the first two months of the season and now he's got 8 points in his last 7 games.

Some of the beneficiaries of great puck luck have been Florida goaltender Jose Theodore (.933 EV sv%) and their entire first line of Stephen Weiss, Kris Versteeg and Tomas Fleischmann (all three have on-ice shooting percentages of 11%+). That isn't too say that these players are "bad" but they certainly aren't as good as they have been. Regression might be what comes back to hurt this Florida team because the strong goaltending has played a big role in their success and their first line has accounted for 48% of their goals. On top of that, Versteeg is the only player on their first line that appears to be driving possession well so when their shooting percentages regress, so does most of their scoring. For the Hurricanes, bad luck has played a role in their struggles but regression going to the mean isn't going to save them because there's a lot more going wrong with this team...but they are at least a win better than they are now. It doesn't sound like much at first, but it's true.

Let's see how the percentages play against Florida tonight.

Lines, analysis & more after the jump

We're almost at the end of 2011 and the Hurricanes have only won 10 games, so I think it's safe to say that the post-season is highly unlikely at this point. What does this mean for the team now? I've heard "Fail for Nail" thrown around a bunch of times but is tanking for a high draft pick going to solve all of our problems? Yes, it has worked for Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington and a few others but the risks that come with it might not be worth the reward. Just ask Islanders and Thrashers fans.

Now, I understand the rationale for getting a high draft pick this year because the team is going absolutely nowhere this season and getting another Jeff Skinner-type prospect in the system would help this team a lot in the long-run. It's not as if the Canes are completely bare in terms of prospects either as GM Jim Rutherford has done a great job at acquiring picks and talent the last few years but is it enough to have this organization set for the future? We don't know that because draft picks are not always a sure thing but with the team having issues scoring and producing offense, it might be time to evaluate some of the talent we have in the organization.

Is it going to turn things around this season? Not likely, but one step to rebuilding is getting the younger players more experience with the big club and we're beginning to see some progress with that in Drayson Bowman most recent call-up.

More after the jump.

I was just as shocked as anyone to see that the Jamie McBain-Tim Gleason defense pairing was kept together in Thursday night's game against the Canucks because of how poorly those two played as a unit until then. While they had a respectable outing that game, I thought Kirk Muller would have decided to reunite Bryan Allen and Tim Gleason since they were going up against a strong offensive team and McBain has struggled in a shutdown role thus far. That's when I began to thought to myself the negatives of the Allen-Gleason defense pairing. Both guys are studs in their own zone and the best defensemen on the team in terms of preventing chances against but neither are that good of puck movers.

There is a lot of pressure put on defensemen to get the puck out of their own zone with break-out passes that you need to have a puck-moving defenseman on almost any pairing. One of McBain's strengths is being able to move the puck well and with Joni Pitkanen on the shelf indefinitely, that makes him an attractable option for the top pairing. Allen and Gleason, on the other hand, are not known for their puck-moving skills but are both so bad that they can't play on the top pairing?

This is where looking at zone entries and exits will come in handy. Derek Zona of Copper and Blue looked at this for the Oilers and the folks at Broad Street Hockey have been tracking zone entries for the Flyers all season. The latter part is what we're the most concerned with here because having a defenseman that can get the puck out of the zone is crucial for establishing any kind of offense. To compare McBain and Allen's puck moving skills, I watched each of their shifts from the last game they played on a pairing with Gleason (Thursday vs. Canucks for McBain and Nov. 26th vs. Florida for Allen), recorded what happened each time they touched the puck in the defensive zone and logged how they advanced the puck. Did they make an outlet pass to a forward in the neutral zone, rely one of the forwards to exit the zone, make a big slap pass around the boards and hope for the best or do it the old fashioned way and exit the zone themselves?

Find out the answer after the jump

All season long, the one thing that's been frustrating Canes fans the most (myself included) is how some of the team's best prospects were being restricted to fourth line minutes but it appears that is about to change under Kirk Muller. With Jeff Skinner out, that leaves a huge hole to fill in the top-nine but it also creates an opportunity for one of the younger players to assume a bigger role and they might be able to stick around in Raleigh if they make the most of their playing time. 2008's third round pick Drayson Bowman got his chance last night and he certainly took advantage of it. Scored two goals and was one of the team's most effective offensive players in route to a 4-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks. 

That's not the only thing we can talk about in this game, though. There was the team's powerplay having a very successful night, Cam Ward's terrific play and the second line coming to life. We'll get into all of that after the jump.

Vancouver Canucks (18-10-2) at Carolina Hurricanes (9-18-5)
7:00 p.m., RBC Center
TV: FS-Carolinas, Sportsnet-Vancouver

It's unknown that all general managers look at all of these advanced stats that are gaining popularity on the Internet, but I suspect that Mike Gillis of the Vancouver Canucks might be one of them. He's made some very good trades over the past year where the Canucks acquired a low-PDO player for not much of a cost. The most recent one being the trade for David Booth in exchange for Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson. Booth is a very talented player who hasn't been getting any luck the last two seasons with Florida (PDO is 934 this year), and Gillis was able to take advantage of Dale Tallon "selling low" on him and was able to snag a top-six forward for two expiring contracts.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more GM's do something similar and the Hurricanes are in a position where another team can take advantage of them via trade or vice versa. With the chances of a playoff birth being all but done, it's all about rebuilding now and there's a few under and over acheiving players who may be dealt this year. Will Jim Rutherford be able to get more or less value for the players he trades this year? We'll see. He was able to turn Sergei Samsonov's expiring contract into Bryan Allen, who has been the team's best defenseman last year so I have faith.

This is related because Carolina's game tonight is against Gillis' Canucks and it has the potential to be very ugly for us. I do have some faith because Carolina has played some of their better games this year against good teams. They do own victories over Chicago, Pittsburgh and Boston so I wouldn't get too pessimistic. The absence of our leading goal scorer and one of our best defenseman will make things very difficult, though.

Lines, analysis & more after the jump