Let's not beat around the bush here, the Tomas Kaberle signing was a gigantic misfire by Jim Rutherford. He even admitted it himself. The Hurricanes may have almost made the playoffs in 2010-11 but they were still a team that was rebuilding and had a stockpile of defensemen in their farm system, so bringing in Kaberle on a three year deal was a puzzling acquisition to say the least. I do understand that they were looking for a replacement for Joe Corvo and that they didn't know Justin Faulk would be NHL-ready at such a young age, but committing three years and $12.75 mil. to an aging offensive defenseman isn't something that a team in Carolina's position should do.

Hindsight is 20/20, but those who watched Kaberle in Boston and Toronto the last couple of seasons could have told you that his days of being a top-four defender are long gone. He was used as a third pairing defenseman/powerplay specialist with the Bruins during the playoffs last season and wasn't exactly stellar in that role. That isn't the type of player you give $4.25 mil. per year to and it didn't help that he kept Jamie McBain from playing every night.

That being said, it was thought that Kaberle would be somewhat of an upgrade on the powerplay over Corvo and that he could succeed in a protected role at even strength. That wasn't the case at all in Carolina as he struggled to stay afloat for most of the season, found himself in the press box for one game and was eventually traded to Montreal for Jaroslav Spacek. Rutherford managed to bail himself out of Kaberle's contract but just how bad was he in Carolina? His overall underlying numbers actually are not horrible but that viewpoint completely changes when you add some context to the situation. Follow me after the jump to see what I am talking about.

There are a lot of people who say that a team isn't in trouble in a series until they lose at home, which would make this Predators-Coyotes series very much alive after the Preds shutout Phoenix 2-0 last night. One thing that I have been saying in the first two games is that this series could go either way because both teams are pretty similar in the sense that they aren't strong possession teams and have relied a lot on goaltending this season.

We are now three games into the series and the two teams are even in scoring chances when playing 5-on-5 but the Preds have had the advantage in two of the three games. They didn't get good enough goaltending in the first two games, but that wasn't the case in game 3 as Pekka Rinne recorded his first shutout but the guys in front of him did a terrific job for most of the game in blanketing the Coyotes offense and making their top two lines ineffective for the most part.

Nashville does not need Rinne to stand on his head to win this series, but having him make the big saves when he needs to definitely helps. That's what the case was last night.

At the start of the season, the Hurricanes elected to keep Derek Joslin on their main roster as one of nine eligible defensemen. This looks like an excessive amount but keeping Joslin on the big club was a very smart move in the end. He is signed to a cheap contract and couldn't be sent to the AHL without passing through waivers first, and the team felt that he would be needed sooner or later. He spent the first month of the season in the press-box but Joslin eventually became a regular part of the lineup during the second half of the season, but as a forward and not a defenseman.

With both the Hurricanes and the Charlotte Checkers having a lot of injuries to forwards, depth was desperately needed and Kirk Muller turned to Joslin for that reason in February. It was the first time he had ever played forward in years but his size, decent shot and willingness to get involved physically gave Muller the idea that he would be a good fit for the team's fourth line. This idea did not sound horrible at first and his line with Anthony Stewart & Tim Brent was very popular with fans, but the truth is that Joslin is much better when he is playing his natural position on the blue line.

Joslin isn't the most talented or most effective player in the world, but he is serviceable as a 6th or 7th defenseman. As a forward, he does more harm than good for the Canes and his scoring chance numbers plummeted after he switched positions. We will look at those numbers after the jump.

Jussi Jokinen's 30 goal season back in 2009-10 was both a blessing and a curse. It was great to see him set career highs in goals and points but to many people, every season after that will be seen as a disappointment. The truth is that Jokinen had a once-and-a-lifetime season that year and he probably isn't going to shoot at 18.8% ever again, which probably means that he won't ever repeat that 30 goal/65 point season. However, to say that both seasons Jokinen had since then are disappointments would be silly.

I will admit that I was expecting more than 12 goals from him this season, but Jokinen has consistently been one of the Hurricanes' better forwards ever since he arrived and he was one of their best last season. Next to Jeff Skinner, Jokinen was the team's best even strength forward at creating and preventing scoring chances and he was also one of their better powerplay performers and penatly killers. His ability to win faceoffs at an above average rate earned him the second line center role to start the season and he seemed to blossom in that his line with Jeff Skinner & Tuomo Ruutu was, once again, one of Carolina's best forward units.

Jokinen's point production at even strength was a little underwhelming but a 46 point season is nothing to sneeze at for someone playing in the top-six, in my opinion. Jokinen had a solid season and I think his goal total will rebound next year, especially if he can create chances at the rate he did this season. After the jump, we will take a look at Jokinen's underlying numbers and how he performed compared to the rest of the team.

In a turn of events that I am sure everyone saw coming, the Phoenix Coyotes now have a 2-0 series lead over the Nashville Predators after defeating them 5-3 last night. To win Game 1, the 'Yotes had to rely on goaltender Mike Smith to do most of the work, but that was not the case last night. Phoenix turned in one of their most impressive performances of the post-season and hammered the Preds at even strength; outchancing them 18-11 and outshooting them by 11. 

Going into this series, I was very excited and curious because things could truly go either way. Neither Phoenix or Nashville are dominant possession teams and they both have gotten elite goaltending so it was hard to predict who would control most of this series. That sentiment has reigned true so far as the Preds controlled most of game one while Phoenix dominated most of game 2 during five-on-five play. The reason for the Preds trailing 2-0 ultimately comes down to goaltending.

No, Pekka Rinne has not been atrocious and the Preds defense was pretty brutal last night, but he was out-dueled by Mike Smith in game 1 and gave up five goals in game 2. With the Preds being a team that succeeded laragely on goaltending and special teams for most of the season, Rinne needs to play better than he did last night. Although, that statement can also apply to a lot of the Predators players.

This season was a bit of a coming out party for Jay Harrison. He has been a fringe NHL player and bottom-pairing defenseman for most of his career but was one of the Hurricanes top-four defenders for most of the year and also played considerable time on both special teams units. For a good part of the season, Harrison looked very competent in these roles and he set career highs in just about every statistical category you can name. There are even some stats out there that have him listed as one of the Canes top blue-liners from this season. 

While I would not put Harrison above the likes of Tim Gleason, Bryan Allen, Joni Pitkanen, Justin Faulk or even Jamie McBain, I do think that he had a good season and am happy that he exceeded my expectations this season. However, something I am curious about is whether or not Harrison would be playing such big minutes on a team with a deeper blue line. Where would Harrison play on a team like St. Louis or Nashville? I  am willing to bet that he wouldn't be getting over 20 minutes a night on those clubs, but I think his play this year would at least earn him a roster spot on them.

The reason why I am curious about this is because the Hurricanes defense, as a whole, was not very good this season and I want to know how much of a role Harrison played in that. Is Harrison a third-pairing guy in reality and only playing top-four minutes in Carolina because their defense corps was thin? Should he be given this much responsibility next season or should the Canes search for better options to strengthen their defense? It is a good question and after the jump, we will take a look at Harrison's scoring chance numbers to get a better idea of the season Harrison had.

Ever since Cam Ward became the incumbent starter for the Hurricanes, the team has had a lot of trouble finding a reliable back-up for him. For the most part, they have been using guys called up from the AHL (see Leighton, Michael; Peters, Justin) or career journeymen like Manny Legace and John Grahame to spell Cam Ward and none of them have been that good in a back-up role. Because of this, Ward has started at least 80% of the Hurricanes games when healthy and it has definitely led to him being fatigued as the season goes on.

There were a lot of people who thought that Ward would get a few extra nights off this season because the team signed veteran Brian Boucher to back him up. In fact, this signing was praised by quite a few people including Jonathan Willis of Hockey Prospectus who had this to say about it.

In 2010-11, the Hruricanes used Justin Peters in the [back-up] role and he was a train wreck, costin gthe Hurricanes 11 more goals than a league-average goalie would have. This contrasts with his replacement, Brian Boucher, who stopped five more goals than an average goaltender would have for the Flyers in 2010-11. While Boucher's ability to have a positive impact will be limited because a) he will play in fewer games this season and b) his career track record suggests that he is a pretty average goalie, he should be able to stem the bleeding that happened every time Peters skated off the bench. If the former Flyers backup netminder can provide an average or even just below-average performance for the Hurricanes, they'll make up all the ground that they'll lose if Ward's save percentage dips next season. The addition of Boucher alone means tht things are much better than they were one year ago.

At the time this piece was written (summer of 2011), it seemed like a fair assessment but things didn't turn out the way most predicted at all. Brian Boucher was injured for most of the season and played in only 10 games. However, when he was healthy, he performed at below replacement level and Ward was ridden like a pack-mule for most of the season. If that wasn't enough, the goalie who Boucher was supposed to replace, Justin Peters, played six games with the Hurricanes and was terrific in all of them, stopping .945 of the even strength shots he faced so the Boucher signing might look like a bust to some.

One thing that a lot of people fail to realize is that goaltender performance is hard to predict and  Carolina has struggled with this since the lockout. What we saw from Boucher and Peters in a combined 17 games probably isn't anywhere near their true talent level. Thus, it is unfair to judge the Boucher signing now and it also too early to say that Peters should be the back-up next season. After the jump, we will take a look at how Ward's back-ups have performed over the years and how Boucher might perform next season.

The Phoenix Coyotes have been quite a story this post-season. Most people predicted them losing in the first round to the Chicago Blackhawks but they managed to take them down in six games, mostly due to some overtime magic. All but one of Phoenix's wins this post-season have come in overtime and that includes tonight's 4-3 win over the Nashville Predators in game 1 of the Western Conference Semi-finals.

This series is going to be very interesting because puck possession is not either team's specialty and it's tough to predict how things will turn out. Tonight, the Preds had the advantage in territorial play outshooting Phoenix 34-23 at even strength and outchancing them 19-16. They also had a stronger powerplay tonight, which equates to a win in most cases, except this year's playoffs. Mike Smith was absolutely stellar in net for the Coyotes and he was the main reason why they won. 

Anyone who watched the game will likely tell you that the Preds controlled the latter stages of the game and that was certainly the case. They had the Coyotes pinned in their own zone for the last 50+ minutes or so but couldn't get anything past Smith in overtime. You could say that they received a taste of their own medicine from last round because Detroit was the better team at even strength but goaltending was the reason why Nashville won in five games. It would be some weird karmic justice if the rest of the series turns out like this and I will be shocked if it does.

Scoring chance breakdown after the jump

Over the past few seasons, Tim Gleason has been the Hurricanes' only bonafide shutdown defenseman. He starts a good majority of his shifts in the defensive zone, is usually matched up against opposing team's top lines and is trusted with duty of keeping these opponents in check. Gleason plays one of the most important roles on the team and that was reinforced when GM Jim Rutherford elected to re-sign him to a four year deal instead of trading him.

How effective was Gleason in this role? Judging him based on raw numbers alone is unfair because he is basically fighting an uphill battle every shift, but some of his underlying numbers from this season are pretty ugly. Gleason may have been a +12, but an on-ice shooting percentage of .932 at even strength helped that cause. The job of a shutdown defenseman is to prevent shots and scoring chances against and even when factoring in his heavy workload, Gleason seemed to be on ice for the opposing team's a little too often. 

A breakdown of those underlying numbers is coming after the jump

This series is now in the books and the Predators managed to oust the Detroit Red Wings, in five games and advance to the second round of the playoffs for the second time in franchise history. Most pundits and bloggers were split on their prediction on who would win this series but one thing they agreed on was that it would be a long series. That obviously wasn't the case as the Preds made quick work of their Central Division foes and became the first team to advance this post-season.

For my prediction, I had the Wings advancing in six games based on the fact that the Wings have been one of the best possession teams at even strength during the regular season while the Preds have been one of the worst. In addition to that, the Preds were relying on a hot powerplay and elite goaltending to get them to a playoff spot and I figured both of those wouldn't be enough to match against the Wings.

The part about the Wings being a superior team at even strength reigned true throughout this series, but the Preds absolutely dominated the goaltending matchup, which is part of the reason why they are in the second round and Detroit is golfing. After the jump, we'll take a closer look at what went right for Nashville and what went wrong for Detroit.