Yesterday morning, Jim Rutherford addressed the media on the Hurricanes season and one of the key things discussed was the team's off-season plans and from the sound of things, the Hurricanes depth and defense could be in for a bit of an overhaul. In the presser, Rutherford mentioned that he would like to add two to three defensemen this off-season and become "tougher to play against" which could mean that changes are on the way. Terrible defending and no depth scoring were a big problem for the Canes in this past season, so it's good to see that Rutherford has identified the problem and is aiming to fix it. The question is how will he go about doing this.

The Hurricanes aren't an idea situation this off-season because they have roughly $8 mil. to spend and the free agent pool doesn't offer many solutions as far as finding a top-four defenseman goes. They also have a handful of players within their organization to re-sign and will need to keep an eye on future seasons, as well. It's easy to find one player to target and say that the team will need to pay what it takes to get him and ignore what it will do to their cap situation in future years. The Canes in particular will have to be cautious with this because they have a little under $20 mil. committed to nine players the year after next season. They also don't have a ton of prospects who they can count on to fill key roles on cheap ELC deals, although that could change after this draft class.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that the Hurricanes are in "cap hell," but with only $8 mil. to spend and quite a few holes to fill, Rutherford is going to have to make some creative moves to do what he wants while setting this team up in a good position for the future. After the jump, we will talk about what the Canes need to do this off-season and what kind of situation they will be in.

We continue our scoring chance tracking of the playoffs by moving onto the Rangers-Capitals series, which was one that many people had a split view on. One side of hockey fans see this as the Caps series to lose because they are the hotter team coming in, losing only one game in regulation in the month of April and being led by one of the NHL's best players in Alexander Ovechkin. On the other hand, some people view Washington's recent success as one that is built on a house of cards due to their poor territorial play and that their luck will run out in the playoffs. The Rangers had to claw their way into the playoffs, but their body of work for the entire season is slightly better than Washington's so it's easy to see why people would favor them in this series. However, in Game 1, it was the "hot team" that came out on top and Washington's path to victory was similar to how most of the second half of their season went.

The Caps were largely outplayed during even strength play, as they recorded only seven scoring chances when the terms were even and recorded 16 fewer shot attempts than the Rangers. It's not terribly surprising that this happened because the Caps have been a weak team at even strength for most of the season, but fortunately for them only 1/3 of this game was played at special teams and that's an advantage that works in their favor. Washington basically go to start the game on the powerplay after the Rangers were whistled for a too many men on the ice penalty and were able to establish a territorial advantage for the majority of the first period due to that. They only scored on one of their five powerplay opportunities, but I think it worked in Washington's favor that so little of this game was played at even strength because that area hasn't been their strong suit this season and the Rangers were the ones carrying most of the five-on-five play.

Needless to say, this was a very weird and sloppy game and exactly the type of game the Caps needed to win if they want to take control of this series. They got a little lucky with the Rangers missing the net so often and Jason Chimera scoring a soft goal on Henrik Lundqvist, so I would expect a slightly different result in Game 2 if the Rangers continue to control the play at even strength like they did last night.

Over the last two seasons, I have been doing my best to take a closer look at the Hurricanes performance by keeping track of their puck-possession stats. Why? Because there is a lot that goes into winning hockey games and over time, it's been noted that the teams who are best at controlling puck-possession during even-strength play are usually better set for long-term success. In most recent years, the Hurricanes have been an awful team at controlling puck-possession, ranking in the bottom-half or bottom-third in the NHL in that category. That all changed this season, though.

In close game situations, the Hurricanes were winning the battle at even strength for most of the year. There was a point where they were a top-ten team in Fenwick Close and were doing a fantastic job of controlling puck-possession. This would lead to a happier ending in a full-year but some things went terribly wrong. Both goalies got hurt, the roster was beaten up and the team went through periods where they couldn't buy an even strength goal to save their lives. In a shortened year, that will normally do you in and while I don't think this club would have made the playoffs if they were a little more lucky, all of their numbers indicate that they were better than where they ended up in the standings.

There's another side to this story, though. Puck-possession may have been one of the Hurricanes strong suits this season but scoring chances were not. They controlled the puck in the opponent's offensive zone a lot, but there were many games where it didn't result in much offense and by that, I mean scoring chances instead of just shot attempts. There has been evidence which shows that strong puck-possession leads to scoring chances in the long-run and that Fenwick (Unblocked 5v5 shot attempts) and scoring chances are strongly correlated, so good puck-possession should lead to better scoring chances in a full year, right? 

Possibly, but this obviously wasn't a full season and things worked out much differently for the Hurricanes, as their ability to control scoring chances was still a problem this year even though their play at even strength improved considerably.

Just because the Hurricanes are out of it doesn't mean my tracking days are over. I'll be doing various stat tracking for every playoff game this year and will be posting scoring chance reports here for the ones I'm able to do live. I'll have reports for the other games posted at a later date (possibly after each series is over), but scoring chances will come a day or so after I'm able to track a game live. It will be a way to follow the playoffs in-depth and take a closer look at each series for those who are interested in that.

Unfortunately, the first game I was able to track live was the most lopsided and non-competitive game of the first round. Despite being a 1 vs. 8 matchup, I was expecting the Islanders-Penguins series to be a little closer than some of the experts and causal fans were predicting and while I still hold onto that statement, Game 1 looked exactly like a top seed going against a bottom seed. The Penguins humiliated the Islanders last night in a 5-0 win and the Isles were basically out-competed and out-matched in just about every area.

That is, in every area except for puck-possession. The Islanders actually had much more shot attempts than the Penguins during five-on-five play but it ultimately didn't matter because of a few reasons. First of all, the Islanders got into early penalty trouble and Pittsburgh made them pay for it to get an early lead. Secondly, the Islanders goaltending wasn't very good and Evgeni Nabokov let in a couple goals he would probably want back and lastly, most of the Islanders shots were either blocked or came from a non-threatening area. As a result, the Penguins had a huge advantage in scoring chances despite not winning the puck-possession battle.

After doing a quick survey of Hurricanes fans, it's pretty clear that the number one concern for the team this off-season is improving the defense, and rightfully so because the Hurricanes blue-line had a ton of issues. They were one of the worst teams in the NHL at preventing shots on goal during 5v5 play, had an atrocious penalty kill and constantly gave up odd-man rushes and scoring chances on almost a nightly basis. To make things worse, their defense corps was constantly banged up throughout the year and they ended up going through 12 defensemen over 48 games. The Hurricanes came into this season with a defense that could be fine if they all stayed healthy and played to their full potential. Unfortunately, Murphy's Law was in full effect last season and just about everything awry.

So, how do the Hurricanes go about fixing their defense? Personally, I think it relates both to the team's system and their personnel since Kirk Muller runs an umtempo system where slower, stay-at-home defensemen would be less effective than they would be in a more conservative system, but I think most would agree that the Canes blue-line corps could use some shoring up. The only true "shutdown" defenseman they have is Tim Gleason and he is surrounded by guys who are either more known for their offensive skillset or are guys who would be third-pairing defensemen on contending teams. That definitely needs to change in the next few years if the Canes are going to get back to the playoffs. 

Before we go about discussing how to "fix" the Canes defense, we're going to take a look at the odds and ends of their defense corps from the past year. Observing how Muller used each player and how they performed in their minutes will give us a better idea of where everyone stands and what areas needs to be worked on specifically. It should also give us a clue of which players stand out in the defense corps and which ones need to go.

I'll be breaking down this in a few different areas. First, I'll show how Muller divvied up the ice time among his blue-liners throughout the year to see who he favored and if there were any changes over time. After that, I'll show which defensemen constantly got the tough assignments and how that changed throughout the season and then finally, we will look at how each player performed in those situations. It will a way to provide context to the numbers that I have been reviewing for most of the season and give us a better idea of the state of this defense corps.

So who is the star of the Hurricanes defense and who are the ones dragging things down? We'll find out after the jump.

We've gone over the East, so now it's time to shift our focus out to the Western Conference, where many of their games are played while you are sleeping. The West does have plenty of teams that are worth staying up late for, though and insomniacs are going to be treated to some excellent playoff action in the upcoming action with the first round featuring some very interesting matchups. Last year, everyone got to see the Kings pull off an incredible run as an eight-seed to win the Stanley Cup and they are in a good position to make another run this post-season with the strong team they have assembled. They do have a tough first round match-up, though and the West features a lot of very good teams that could stand in the way of the Kings pulling off a repeat.

After the jump, we'll take a look at the matchups and who has the best chances of advancing out of the first round.

It's depressing that this will be the fourth year in a row that the Hurricanes failed to make the playoffs, but there are still plenty of exciting matchups to talk about in this year's first round. The shortened season was going to lead to a lot of interesting outcomes for this year's post-season and it certainly delivered on that promise, as three new teams from the Eastern Conference made the playoffs, a few of which not many expected. I'm sure that most would have laughed at you four months ago if you said that Montreal would win the Northeast after being the second worst team in the NHL last year. They would have done the same thing if you went onto predict that the Islanders would make the playoffs while the New Jersey Devils, last year's Eastern Conference champs, would be on the outside looking in. At least the Southleast Division lived up to its mantra of sending in only one team. Regardless, it looks like NHL fans are in for another exciting first round this year and there are a few series that could really go either way.

I'm sure that each of the fan blogs for these respective teams are working around the clock to break down their own series, but writing playoff predictions and previews is kind of a "tradition" for hockey bloggers, so I figured that I'll post mine here anyway. Most of people's playoff predictions are often based on picking whichever team is the "hottest" coming into the post-season or which team has the most experience on their roster. As most of you know, I have a different approach when it comes to predictions. I'm going to take a look at each series and see how each team matches up in terms of even strength play, how lucky they have gotten and how they have performed on special teams. Luck has played a huge role in a lot of teams making it in since this is a shortened year, so be prepared to see plenty of interesting matchups after the jump where I'll break down each series.

This season didn't go nearly as well as most Carolina fans thought it would. Instead of competing for a playoff spot, the Canes finished with a bottom-five record in the NHL and the only thing they have to hang onto is that they'll probably get a good building piece in the upcoming NHL Draft. The team was in a good position for awhile but they ended the season going 4-16-3 which effectively removed them from contention both in the Southeast and the playoff race. This team was far from perfect and struggles were going to happen, but I don't think anyone predicted a fall from grace like this happening. The popular explanation from most pundits are that the injury to Cam Ward sunk their season since the team went 10-19-3 without him, but there have been a lot of other different reasons drawn up, too. The Canes have been described as a team that is "soft," "fragile" with their biggest criticism being that they aren't "tough to play against" and that is ultimately why they aren't in the post-season.

I'm not doubting any of those claims since this team has a tendency to unravel once things started going wrong but I felt that there were other factors that contributed to this team falling apart down the stretch. Some of which they had control over and others they did not. There were going to be a lot of strange things happening in a shortened season (The Leafs are in the playoffs for starters), and things like injuries, luck and hot streaks were going to play a role in which teams made the post-season. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, they were on the negative end of just about all of these things which magnified the flaws they already had. Thus, they find themselves waiting for the Draft Lottery announcement on Monday instead of preparing for a playoff series.

As far as the Hurricanes collapse goes, there are five things in particular that I feel contributed to it.

The 2013 season mercifully came to a close for the Hurricanes last night and they ended things in painful fashion by getting blown out 8-3 by the Pittsburgh Penguins. It's somewhat of an appropriate ending for what has been an excruciating year for the Canes but at the very least, it clinched them a spot in the top-five of the NHL Entry Draft which they will hopefully put to good use this June. As bad as the final score was of last night's game, it's kind of hard for me to get hung up on the results because Carolina iced a roster that was in shambles. They actually dressed 18 skaters tonight but two of them played a combined nine seconds, so the team was predictably worn out by the third period, where they surrendered five goals.

Not only that, but I feel like Muller approached this game like a pre-season contest because we saw line combinations that we will likely never see again for a long time. Kevin Westgarth took a few shifts with the first line and scored his first two goals of the season on top of that, Jared Staal played top-six minutes in only his second NHL game while Jeff Skinner continued to center the third line with grinders on his wings. Jamie McBain & Marc-Andre Bergeron also played top-four minutes on defense and spent some of their ice time against Pittsburgh's top-six. It's highly doubtful that the Hurricanes will come out with this kind of look ever again, so there's really no point in freaking out over them getting blown out in basically a meaningless game. The only thing that happened last night which we will undoubtedly see again is Justin Faulk playing over 29 minutes.

I really don't have much to say about this game, so I'll just leave you guys with the numbers and move on with the off-season.

There have been a lot of things that have led to the Hurricanes collapse over the last month but one of the most popular explanations for it is Cam Ward's injury. Ever since Ward sprained his MCL, the Canes are 7-16-3 and their even strength save percentage has plummeted from an average .920 to .910. Bad goaltending can sink any team and the Hurricanes have experienced that first-hand this season with both Dan Ellis and Justin Peters going through rough patches in his relief. Finding a back-up for Cam Ward has never been an easy task and many thought the Hurricanes solved this problem this year by bringing in Dan Ellis during training camp. Now that he and Peters have struggled after being thrusted into a starting role, it has many people lobbying for the Canes to find a back-up goalie this summer.

As far next season goes, the who the Hurricanes have under contract aside from Ward is Justin Peters. Peters is on a one-way deal making $500,000 next year, so this makes the situation a little more difficult than usual. If he isn't on the team or traded by next year, he will have to pass through waivers and be paid an NHL salary in the AHL. This is something that Hurricanes might be reluctant to do because it's paying extra money to a player who won't even be on the team. However, has Peters done enough to make anyone confident about him being the back-up goalie next year?

Personally, I think he has been taking too much fo the blame for the Canes struggles since the defense has been very bad and the team has struggled to score on a lot of his starts, but his numbers are all over the place. Not only for this season, but for his entire career.

All goalies are random by nature, but Peters' lows have been very bad over his career. Like, below replacement level bad and one of those stretches came earlier this year. Peters also has a career save percentage of .900 over 46 starts and 1288 shots faced. This is still a very small sample size to judge a goalie on, but it's very hard to be confident in a back-up goalie with a career save percentage that's around replacement level. Ward has been able to stay healthy over most of his career, but he has taken on a ton of mileage in recent years and would benefit from a goalie who can spell him whenever he needs a night off. I'm not sure if Peters is that guy.

What about Dan Ellis, though? He has similar issues.

Ellis has also been prone to some extreme highs and lows over his career with his most recent low coming after he experienced a leg laceration that somehow kept him out for only two weeks. Prior to the injury, Ellis was playing very well and had a respectable save percentage of .918. Since then, he has a save percentage of .885 and has allowed three or more goals in all but one of six games and has been chased in two of them. Not the performance you want from a goaltender in the latter part of the season, but Ellis' overall numbers from the year really are not terrible.

A save percentage of .908 is about what you would expect from a back-up and his even strength save percentage is an average .920. Ellis' numbers from earlier in the year were unsustainable but his recent struggles appear to be more injury-related than anything else. I've heard some people say that he is at the end of his career, couldn't handle the pressure of being a #1 goalie and the hockey gods were "punishing" him for throwing the team under the bus after a couple of games. Seeing all of thiese claims come up is kind of funny to me because an injury seems more believable. He had his leg cut open by a skate blade on March 21st and returned only 13 days later. For reference, Cam ward suffered a similar injury in 2009 and was out for over a month. Given that piece of information, it seems plausible to me that Ellis rushed back from the injury and it affected his play.

In a full-season, Ellis would ahve to play about 20 games or so to give Ward enough nights off. He has been able to do this plenty of times over his career, but does he still have enough left in the tank to do it now? Possibly. Something you need to remember is that most back-up goaltenders are not of great quality and the most you would expect out of them is a save percentage of .910-.915. Sure, there have been outliers in recent history (Brian Elliott) and some teams like Vancouver have the luxury of two starting quality goaltenders but the league average save percentage of a back-up goalie is usually about .908 to .913. Ellis has been able to give his teams these results for most of his career.

Compare Ellis' save percentage with the yearly average of back-up goaltenders and his numbers have been roughly in line with that. The one exception being his 2010-11 season where he was the Tampa Bay Lightning's 1A/B goaltender and completely bottomed out. I also included Justin Peters' yearly save percentage here and his numbers are a bit more extreme from playing fewer games. I still think the book is still out on him since he hasn't played that much overall, but Ellis is more of a sure-thing. Unfortunately, Ellis is still only an average back-up at best but that might be all the Hurricanes need while Peters is more of a black-box who has been below replacement level in some years.

So the Hurricanes options on the roster right now for back-up goaltender are a veteran back-up with a low ceiling in Ellis and an inexperienced netminder in Peters who has bad more times than not. Some might say that they want neither, but compare them to the options in free agency and Ellis becomes slightly more appealing. Most teams tend to lock-up their goaltenders long-term, so there are never many great names available on the market and that is the case this year. The Hurricanes may only need a back-up, but even the options there are limited. In addition to Ellis, the back-up goaltenders who are free agents this coming summer include names like Chris Mason, Jose Theodore, Al Montoya, Mathieu Garon, Jason LaBarbera and Thomas Greiss. Greiss and LaBarbera are the only two who have a better save percentage than Ellis and the former has played in only six games. Ellis' career numbers are also favorable compared to them.

The Hurricanes options for a back-up goalie this summer are to either retain Ellis, try out the roller coaster that is Justin Peters in that position or make a push for one of the names on the list. I don't think they will have to pay much since the best player available is Jason LaBarbera, but there are going to be other teams looking for the same thing so that might drive his price up. They could always take a chance on a player like Greiss or Montoya for a low cost, too but they might as well just roll with Peters instead of signing an uncertain option. If Brian Elliott (and Brian Boucher) have taught us anything, it's that there is no such thing as a "sure" goaltender and their performance is incredibly random.

That being said, Ellis might be the safest option for Carolina next season and he should come at a cheap cost.  The only issue with re-signing him is finding out what to do with Peters since he is on a one-way deal. For whatever reason, he just hasn't worked out well in Carolina and I'm not sure if I trust him in a back-up role next year. Like I said earlier, Ward is going to need someone who can spell him for 20 games or so. Ellis has a history of being able to do that while Peters does not and has a scattered NHL record. Filling the back-up goaltender spot is thought to be easy in the NHL, but the Hurricanes have a couple of tough decisions to make this summer concerning this spot.