I think most would agree that the Hurricanes have not been a great defensive team this year. They rank towards the bottom of the league in shots against, penalty killing and seem to get involved in run-and-gun style games almost every other night. This makes for some very exciting hockey but it can drive fans insane at times because blown coverages and defensive mistakes are going to happen when you play a very open style. Yet, the Hurricanes have managed to win games despite this and have been controlling the play at even strength when the game is close.

There is always the concern of whether or not this type of hockey can succeed in the playoffs, as many of the recent Stanley Cup champions such as the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks featured terrific defenses. I'm sure that many would love for the Hurricanes defense to play like that but it isn't feasible right now. They don't have top-end talents like Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook or Drew Doughty to anchor their defense corps, at least not yet, so the most they can do is make the best of what they currently have.

That doesn't mean the Hurricanes are doomed in the long run, though because there have been some less-than-stellar defensive teams who have gone the distance even with less than stellar defenses. The Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins being good recent examples of that. Adding to that, the Hurricanes are a team that's been producing a lot of shots every night, as well so they are capable of driving the play and being a net positive team in terms of puck possession. A reason for this is because they have quite a few top-end forwards up front and no shortage of capable puck-moving defensemen on their blue-line. 

The old phrase in sports is that "defense wins championships" but having a good offense is just as important in today's NHL. Having a good defense and goaltending is obviously critical to winning, but the impact of a good offense is something that's often understated. You don't need to be a major in statistics to understand that teams who have the puck more often than their opponents are likely to score more while yielding fewer shots and thus, winning more games. This isn't the case all the time since even good possession teams can flounder if they have terrible goaltending, but clubs towards the top of the standings are normally ones who are stronger at controlling the shot battle at even strength.

This is where having forwards who can drive the play forward come in handy. Players like Eric Staal, Alexander Semin, Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. The Staal brothers might be the only ones of this group who receive credit for their two-way play, but Skinner and Semin have just as big of an impact in regards to the Hurricanes territorial play. The Hurricanes produce more scoring chances per 60 minutes when Skinner is on the ice than anyone else and our earlier look at zone entries showed that he gets the puck into the offensive zone more often than any other player. He is also doing this while playing on a line with Jordan Staal, which not only means that the Canes have possession of the puck when they are on the ice, it means that the opposing team's top lines are stuck in their own end, too.

That limits the impact of the other team's top forwards and puts them at a disadvantage. Skinner is prone to slip ups in coverage when his own zone, but he doesn't need to defend for over 50% of the time he is on the ice, which mitigates his flaws and means he is doing more good than harm. The first line has a similar effect, but they've also received a zone start push from the coaching staff and aren't relied on to drive the play as much as Jordan Staal & Jeff Skinner. This is why not having Skinner for five games hurt the team a lot.

Another player whose absence is felt for similar reasons is Joni Pitkanen. Offensive defensemen are often somewhat underrated for this reason. They might never take a shift on the PK and are prone to some terrible mistakes, but if they are effective at driving the play forward it means that their defensive shortcomings do not matter as much and they are doing a lot of help for their team as a whole. We've seen Erik Karlsson have this effect on the Senators for the last couple of years and players like Lubomir Visnovsky have also made a similar impact on their teams. Pitkanen isn't in the same class as Karlsson, but his strengths as an offensive player have had a great impact on the Hurricanes over the years and that has been especially true this season.

Having a defenseman capable of driving the play adds another demension to a team's offensive attack and it's especially helpful if said defenseman is a good puck-handler because that gives the opposing defense much more to worry about. If you look at the zone entry article linked earlier, you'll see that Pitkanen is, by far, Carolina's best defenseman in regards to neutral zone play and that's one of the reasons the Hurricanes are a better team when he is healthy.

Another area where defensemen like Pitkanen help out is exciting the zone. I've lost count of the number of times that a team has failed to generate much offense because their defensemen can't move the puck forward at all, which is why having players capable of doing this is important.

These are the Hurricanes 5v5 zone exit numbers which I have been tracking all season. What I've done is counted every time a Carolina player touched the puck in an attempt to exit the zone, noted if they were able to successfully advance the puck (whether it was via carry, pass or by other means), turned it over or iced it. I haven't been able to link this to a team's ability to drive the play forward, but I think most hockey fans will tell you that the ability to get the puck out of the zone is very important, especially with defensemen, so this is worth looking at.

You can see that Pitkanen is the best defensemen on the Hurricanes at advancing the puck during 5v5 play but another player who has also been very good at doing this is Joe Corvo and he is probably one of the most under-appreciated players on the team. I'm pretty sure that there was an audible groan from the Hurricanes fanbase when Jim Rutherford decided to bring Corvo back to Carolina for a third tour of duty and while he is far from an ideal replacement for Bryan Allen, one thing that he is able to do is get the puck moving in the right direction. It's something that he has been great at doing over most of his career and it's really helped this season since Bobby Sanguinetti's play has come along slower than most were hoping.

In the 150+ games I have tracked, the average zone exit advance rate for defensemen is about 22%, so both Corvo and Pitkanen are performing at an above average level when it comes to getting the puck out. Corvo is doing this while playing fewer minutes and easier opponents than Pitkanen, but he is still playing his role fine and he has actually been a lot better than expected. 

There are going to be many claims that the Hurricanes need to "tighten up" defensively in order to go anywhere in the playoffs and while that's a valid complaint, Carolina isn't going to become a great defensive team with the roster they have now. Adding a defenseman at the trade deadline isn't going to completely fix everything either and you can even make the argument that adding a shutdown defenseman here would be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Fortunately, Kirk Muller has been able to adapt to this team's strengths and has put together a squad that's pretty good at controlling puck possession, which is what usually leads to more wins. The only problem is that this strategy isn't as effective when Pitkanen is out of the lineup and his return can not come soon enough.

Last week, the Hurricanes were well ahead of the pack in the Southeast after picking up two wins over the Florida Panthers in a home-and-home series. How do they look now after winning two out of three games against non-divisional opponents? Answer: not much better or worse than they were a week ago, but they are making progress at the very least.

GR = Games Remaining, Pts = Points, Avail. = Points available, Needed = Points needed to 55, Point% = Percentage of games they need to earn points to get to 55, Div. = Divisional games remaining 

Even with the Hurricanes struggles within the division, the Hurricanes are still in the best shape to win the Southeast after going 2-1-0 the past week and improving their lead in the standings. The only team that has been gaining some ground on them is the Winnipeg Jets, who went 2-1-1 in their past week and picked up wins over two divisional teams. They are only three points behind the Hurricanes in the standings but they also have played one more game than Carolina, which puts them at a slight disadvantage.

It's easy to look at the standings and say "Oh no, Winnipeg is only three points behind! Carolina really needs to win tonight!" but the one game in hand puts a little less pressure on the Hurricanes. However, the Canes do have a pretty big week coming up where they play Washington twice and then Tampa Bay on the road. This won't make or break the season for Carolina thanks to the position they're in now, but they can easily let Washington or Tampa Bay climb back into the race if they fail to get any points this week. In other words, they aren't "must win" games but things will be much easier for the Hurricanes down the road if they do win.

Tampa Bay was actually still in the race for awhile but their recent slide has put them in a bad position while the Caps had a chance to make things interesting before dropping both games to the Rangers and Islanders. 

In addition to being in a good position, the Hurricanes also have the most optimistic outlook for the rest of the season compared to the divisional adversaries.

In addition to being one of two teams with a positive goal differential, Carolina has also done a better job at controlling the play at even strength and has gotten better goaltending than the rest of the pack. I'm not sure if this will continue with the Justin Peters/Dan Ellis tandem, but I think the Hurricanes will be fine if they can be average for the rest of the season. The fact that the Hurricanes are controlling 52% of the shots with the score close puts less pressure on their goaltenders anyway. The only thing that the Hurricanes need to be very concerned about is their penalty kill, which has been just atrocious at preventing shots. The other teams in the division aren't exactly good on the PK either but Carolina's is still much worse. They've had a good streak of not allowing goals lately, but that will come to an end if they continue to struggle preventing shots.

One other thing I will say is do not sleep on the Winnipeg Jets. I've heard nothing but bad press out of there lately but the team doesn't look too bad all things considered. They need to go something like 12-7-5 to make the playoffs, but they've been pretty good at even strength this season and aren't that far behind Carolina in the standings. Their bad powerplay and terrible PK save percentage might hurt them, but they can still challenge Carolina for the top seed if the Canes struggle the rest of the way.

I have a feeling that this chart will look very different for the Hurricanes by the end of next week. If they can get points or win their next three games then they will be in an even better spot than they are now, but if they drop all three games then things will be much tighter. Going .500 for the rest of the season is all Carolina needs to do to make the playoffs, which sounds easy enough but we've seen many teams fall apart down the stretch in previous seasons. Let's hope Carolina can avoid that.

Stats courtesy of Behind the Net.

As of right now, the Hurricanes are in a good position to both make the playoffs and win the Southeast Division. They basically need to play a little better than .500 hockey for the rest of the season to qualify for the playoffs and it may not even be that much if the rest of the Eastern Conference continues to struggle, according to Sports Club Stats. In other words, all the Canes have to do for the rest of the year is not play terribly and they should find themselves in the post-season. Sound easy enough, right?

The Hurricanes have assembled a pretty decent squad this year, too. They are winning the battle at even strength, have one of the best first lines in the NHL and they've managed to get to 14-9-1 despite playing with a depleted roster for most of the season. The squad isn't perfect, though as they have had plenty of woes on special teams this season but the most frustrating things with the Hurricanes, by far, has been their play within the division.

While the Hurricanes haven't played that many intra-Southeast games this season, they have won only two of seven meetings against divisional opponents nad have been outscored 25-16 in those games. What has put them at the top of the division is a strong 12-4-1 record against the rest of the Eastern Conference, including an impressive 4-1-1 record against the Atlantic Division. That being said, the Hurricanes are going to need to start winning some more games within their own division if they are going to make the playoffs, because most of their remaining games are against these teams.

The fact that Carolina has had such little success in the Southeast is a bit perplexing. The Southeast is the weakest division in the league and the fact that Carolina has gone 2-5-0 against these teams is confusing when you look at their performance against teams who are better. This goes beyond just wins and losses, too as the Hurricanes have recorded plenty of blowouts wins over Atlantic & Northeast teams.

Carolina has outscored the Atlantic & Northeast teams by almost 20 at even strength, while they are averaging barely two goals per game against the Southeast. Their numbers against the Southeast would actually look a lot worse had it not been for that six-goal performance against Florida last Saturday night. Even when you add in the special teams goals, they are still outscoring the rest of the Eastern Conference by 15 goals. So, what's the root of the problem here? Does Carolina have a problem getting ready for games within the division? I would buy that excuse if the teams they were playing outside of the Southeast weren't significantly better than what they are facing within their own division.

Taking a closer look at their numbers against the Southeast shows that poor luck has played somewhat of role in their divisional struggles.

ESSF = Even strength shots for, ESSA = Even strength shots against, CorF = Corsi For, CorA = Corsi Against, ESCF = Even strength scoring chances for, ESCA = Even strength scoring chances against, ES Sh% = even strength shooting percentage, ESSV% = Even strength save percentage

For the most part, Carolina has been able to control play and outchance their divisional opponents at even strength. I'm not sure how much predictive value this has because they were also playing from behind in most of these games, but I wouldn't bank on their goaltending being that bad for their remaining 11 games against the Southeast. Their shooting percentage against the Southeast is also below average but they haven't gotten absurdly unlucky either.

On the other hand, Carolina hasn't been blowing away the rest of their competition at even strength and yet, they've managed to outscore them by 15 thanks to the team having a shooting percentage of nearly 13%. That obviously isn't going to stay that high for the entire year and it's also doubtful that the Ellis/Peters tandem will stop nearly 93% of the shots they see for the rest of the year. In other words, it's been a tale of extremes for the Hurricanes with them getting all the bounces against teams who aren't from the Southeast.

I would expect those to even out as the year goes on and the Canes will have a chance to pad their lead this week with two games against Washington and a road game against Tampa Bay coming up. At the same time, Carolina will probably struggle against the rest of the Eastern Conference since they aren't controlling the play enough for them to remain dominant. They also have games remaining against Boston, Pittsburgh & Montreal, who are among the best teams in the East and will pose a tough test for the Canes.

In the end, I think things will eventually even out and the Hurricanes will make the playoffs since they're in a good enough position now. The only way I could see things going wrong is for them to suffer injuries to more key players and their underlying numbers to take a nose-dive as a result. We've known to expect the unexpected in this shortened season, so let's hope that things continue to go well for the Hurricanes in this second half.

The Hurricanes managed to close out their three-game homestand in style with a 6-3 win over the New Jersey Devils, even though the team and some fans probably have a bit of a sour taste in their mouth from how the third period was played. Don't get me wrong, the Hurricanes outplayed New Jersey and deserved this win, but they allowed the Devils to get back into the game by sitting back and playing conservative for the entire third period. This is expected from most teams who enter a third period leading by four goals, but giving up nine scoring chance in one frame isn't exactly what I would call "defending a lead." The final score may have ended up being even closer had it not been for Dan Ellis coming up big a few times in that third period.

That being said, one bad period fueled by score effects does not undo a terrific previous 40 minutes played by the Hurricanes. For the most part, the team was excellent last night and had control of this game when the score was close. I wouldn't expect them to score six times on 22 shots many times this year, but the team was probably due for a few bounces after the Montreal game where they scored only twice on 43 shots. The hockey gods giveth and the hockey gods taketh away, and it wouldn't surprise me if we see more occurrences like that for the remainder of the season, especially with how the Canes top line has been playing.

New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
7 p.m, PNC Arena
TV: FS-Carolinas, MSG+

After Thursday's frustrating loss against the Canadiens, the Hurricanes are looking to finish off this homestand on a good note by taking on the New Jersey Devils tonight. As maddening as that Montreal loss was, there were stretches of that game where the Hurricanes looked better than they have all season. Hard work and good effort does not always equate to wins, though and that's especially true when the team plays well for only parts of the game and not the full-60 minutes, which is what the Hurricanes downfall was on Thursday night. They started off flat, managed to battle back and then ran out of gas at the end. Here's to hoping that tonight's game against the Devils is more of a consistent performance.

There were a lot of good things to take away from that Montreal loss, though as the Hurricanes put together a very impressive offensive performance with 43 shots on goal and may have been able to edge out a win had it not been for Carey Price. If they can bring that same firepower and bring more of an even performance, then they could pick up a win tonight against a struggling New Jersey Devils team. The Canes have not had many losing streaks this year, so continuing that trend tonight will be important as the rest of the Southeast is gaining on them. This division is easily the worst in the NHL but it is living up to it's billing of being very competitive, which is why it's important for the Canes to avoid going on a losing streak.

Things are starting to get better for them as they've won four of their last five and will see another player return to the lineup tonight in Tim Brent. In case you missed it, I talked about how Brent's return is a little more important than some might think. He has made the Canes fourth line somewhat of a useful unit this year and provides some help to the powerplay. If anything, Brent provides some much needed depth to the Hurricanes bottom-six and that's never a bad thing.

While oen familiar face will return to the lineup in Brent, another new addition will be made tonight as Chris Terry will be making his NHL debut. Terry has been working his way through the rankings in Charlotte and has been one of their best goal-scorers for the last few years. Many were wondering when he would finally get a shot with the big club and it looks like that time is now. How will he perform and what kind of ice time he will get from the coaching staff is another story. Kirk Muller is known for rewarding the players who perform well, so if Terry has a good debut then he could be in Raleigh for a little longer than some expect.

That's just one of many storylines heading into tonight's game.

Most of the Hurricanes injured players have returned but one player who has been on the shelf longer than intended is center Tim Brent. He was part of the notorious first-wave of injuries that occurred a few weeks ago, as he has been struggling with a nagging groin problem for quite awhile now. He is set to make his return to the lineup tonight and Brent might give the Hurricanes a bigger jolt than some think. I know this sounds kind of ridiculous at first glance because Brent is a fourth liner who usually doesn't play more than 10 minutes per game, has only two points, isn't a top-faceoff guy and isn't that good of a penalty killer either. How can someone who appears to be pretty replaceable help Carolina's lineup so much?

It's true that Brent is a fourth liner and his role is very replaceable but since he went down, the guys who Carolina has called in to take over the fourth line center spot haven't been very good. In fact, the team's fourth line has been a liability more times than not with Brent out of the lineup. That isn't a huge problem because they are being matched up against other team's depth forwards, but it does hurt the team's overall depth and puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the lineup, especially when the fourth line is given only 4-8 shifts like they were Thursday night. With Riley Nash assuming the role of third line center for now, the fourth line has had to resort to other Charlotte call-ups like Brett Sutter and Jeremy Welsh or make do with players like Tim Wallace centering this line. All three haven't worked out due to them playing poorly or Muller only giving them 2-5 minutes of ice-time.

Brent only plays 6-8 minutes a game at even strength no matter what, so his impact is limited but whenever he is on the ice, the Hurricanes have been able to move the puck in the right direction. Granted, this is with him playing against other team's fourth lines but you can never have too many players capable of driving the play. Brent has been able to do that this year and that's even with him taking a lot of extra shifts in the defensive zone. He has been able to make the Canes fourth line an effective unit this year, as the ability of both Tim Wallace & Kevin Westgarth to carry the mail at even strength improved whenever he is on a line with them. Again, he is doing this against weak competition but as a fourth liner he isn't expected to do much more and there's nothing wrong with that.

Brent's play at even strength has improved dramatically this year, but he is actually missed a lot more on the powerplay. Most Hurricanes fans remember that Brent quarterbacked Carolina's powerplay for a good part of last season and he actually did a damn fine job when it came to producing scoring chances. He didn't start this season on any of the powerplay units, but the Canes struggles there have led to them placing Brent back on the point and he is one of the team's most efficient producers with the man advantage.

On the stat sheet, last night's 4-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens looks like a game that the Hurricanes could/should have won but ended up losing thanks to running into a hot goaltender. They put up 43 shots against Carey Price but came away with only two goals while Montreal had only 28 shots and were outchanced 21-15. It's true that the Hurricanes had a huge advantage in shots and looked dominant at times last night, but Price was not their only problem. They may have had a chance at getting at least a point in this game if Price didn't play as well as he did but it would be a stretch to consider it anything more than that.

I mentioned in my recap last night that this game resembled the Hurricanes season because it came with many highs and lows and the scoring chance summary agrees with that sentiment.

Sometimes the most frustrating losses are the ones when the team plays a solid game but ends up with nothing to show for it because of a few bone-handed mistakes. This was the case for the Hurricanes in their 4-2 loss to the Canadiens tonight. They outshot Montreal 43-28 and played arguably their best 20 minutes of the season in the second period but ended up taking the loss due to a bad start, ineffective special teams play and a few brutal defensive lapses. In other words, some of the same mistakes that have been plaguing this team all season long. The common thought among fans right now is probably something along the lines of "it's been 20+ games, they shouldn't be making these mistakes now! What is wrong with this team?"

Let's step away from the ledge here for a second and remind ourselves that the Canes won their previous four games and looked dominant at times tonight. On top of that, they were playing a very strong Montreal club, so things could have been much worse (think the Washington game) if this team's recent win streak was indeed just smoke & mirrors. Are there things to be concerned about? Absolutely, but it's not enough for me to say that it's time for the team to get a complete facelift because they ended up losing by two goals. There were many encouraging signs to go along with the causes for concern and this was far from the team's worst performance this season.

That being said, the team's performance tonight was sort of a microcosm of how their season has gone, as it was filled with a lot of highs and lows.

Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes
7 p.m., PNC Arena
TV: Sports South, TSN-Habs

Carolina will be coming into tonight's game against the Canadiens in a similar situation to the last time they took on Montreal. If you don't remember (it's probably better if you don't anyway), the Canes were riding a three-game win streak head into that game but suffered a barrage of injuries over the span of four days and ended up getting shut out 3-0 by the Habs. This time, Carolina will be riding a four game win streak but are still missing quite a few players from their lineup including goaltender Cam Ward.

The injuries didn't seem to stop them from taking care of the Sabres on Tuesday night, but the Canes will be taking on a much better team this evening in the Canadiens. Many of the problems that were surrounding the Habs last season appear to be gone as the Habs are currently sitting atop of the Eastern Conference and have won six of their last 10 games.

Carolina has been outshot and outchanced in three of the four games they've won, but they have also established early leads in all of those games so  I'm not ready to say that it is a problem just yet. However, it is worth noting that three of their last four wins came against bad teams in Florida and Buffalo, so tonight's game will be a much tougher test. Carolina is still pretty banged up, but most of the team's best skaters healthy, so I think their performance against Montreal will give us an idea of how good they are/can be.

The Hurricanes have gone through a lot of lineup changes this season but I don't think any position has been more of a revolving door as the right wing spot on the second line. With Tuomo Ruutu out until at least mid-April, Kirk Muller has tried out just about every weapon in his arsenal to find a suitable linemate for Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. The second line has had it's ups and downs this year, as both Staal and Skinner have done a terrific job of driving possession while playing against tough competition, but finding another winger to help them has been a struggle.

Jordan Staal has been able to make the second line a good territorial unit even with sub-par wingers, but he can't turn dust into gold and make it a scoring line with just anyone. We saw this in the five games that Skinner was hurt. When Skinner is healthy, he and Staal have been somewhat dangerous and effective offensively, but they've struggled in the last couple of games when Tim Wallace was placed on the other wing, which could be a sign that these two can't do all the work by themselves and need a more consistent linemate. The first line might be lighting things up now, but I still believe that they will cool down eventually and when that does, the other lines are going to need to pitch in, which is why filling this hole on the second line will be important.

You could argue that Patrick Dwyer provided the Hurricanes with a nice stop-gap for the second line until Ruutu returns but he was eventually demoted to the third line and has since developed some nice chemistry with Jussi Jokinen & Riley Nash on that unit. Jokinen was another player who got an audition on this line as a winger and while he was able to drive the play well, he wasn't scoring and ended up being demoted. Muller probably doesn't want to mess with the chemistry of that line for now, so I guess Dwyer & Jokinen are no longer options. Chad LaRose and Zac Dalpe would also be options for the second line but they are both injured now which leaves spare parts like Tim Wallace and Drayson Bowman who have been on the fourth line more times than not.

I know that coaches don't like to mess with chemistry, but I think having a good second line is more important than keeping a solid third line together. So let's pretend that all of the players I listed above (save for Dalpe since he's out indefinitely) are fair game for the second line. Which players on the roster is the best fit with Skinner and Staal? This means that they have to be at least decent offensively, play competently against opposing team's top lines and be able to drive the play forward. I'm sure that many people reading this already know who their answer is and have their own opinions on certain players on the team. There's nothing wrong with that, but a better way to go about it is to take a closer look at each player's performance on the ice.

So, what I'm going to do is look at how each player has performed in all three zones without mentioning their names and differ to the readers on who they want to see on the second line from the available options. No biases or previous opinions here, just the facts.