Tuomo Ruutu shift analysis

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The last place a player wants to end up in is the coach's "doghouse" and it appears that the Hurricanes newly re-signed forward Tuomo Ruutu is in that spot right now with head coach Kirk Muller. There was some suspicion that Ruutu was in trouble on Friday when he was placed on the fourth line during the third period in the game against Columbus. That thought was confirmed the next day when Ruutu was benched six minutes into the third period after playing a total of three shifts in that frame.

Ruutu's performance since returning from injury has been underwhelming to say the least. He has only one point in nine games and the only game where I thought he made a difference was Wednesday's 3-1 win against Florirda. Ruutu needs to be out there making a difference in every game and going by the numbers, he has not been doing that at all.

Here's a game-by-game breakdown of Ruutu's scoring chance numbers & zone starts since returning from his upper-body injury.

Game TOI Shifts CF CA OZ DZ
TB 16.817 29 1 4 7 5
FLA 16.25 24 1 6 5 7
NYR 16.95 23 4 6 5 7
STL 16.083 25 4 4 1 4
MIN 16.5 25 1 1 4 4
WPG 15.38 25 2 3 0 6
FLA 16.48 20 8 4 5 2
CBJ 14.75 19 2 3 4 0
DET 11.63 17 2 4 3 7
Total

25 35 34 42

In addition to this, Ruutu has only been on ice for two of the Hurricanes even strength goals and six of the opponents while controlling way less than 50% of the even strength corsi events. This is a very small sample size so it likely doesn't mean much in the big picture but it is safe to say that Ruutu's performance has not been up to standard in these nine games. Ruutu was one of the team's best forwards for most of the year so for him to be outchanced by 10 over nine games is pretty bad. Although it's a little odd for him to be starting in the defensive zone more because that's not how he's normally utilized, but it's still easy to see why Muller could be frustrated with him. We've seen Muller demand a lot out of his players and he clearly wants to see more out of Ruutu than what he's done so far.

The numbers explain things pretty clearly, but to get a better idea of what caused Muller to bench Ruutu, I went over his shifts from the last two games to see if there's any visual evidence of Ruutu playing poorly. I did a similar project with Zach Boychuk earlier in the month when he was benched and demoted. We'll begin this after the jump.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Detroit Red Wings 3/24/12 Scoring Chances

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Last night, I said the Hurricanes turned in a good effort in a 5-1 loss to the Blue Jackets but were on the receiving end of a few bad bounces & gave up towards the end. Some might say the same thing about tonight's 5-4 loss to the Detroit Red Wings but I actually thought this was one of the worst games the Hurricanes played this season.Yes, they only lost by one goal to one of the league's elite possession teams but they also blew a 4-1 lead, were outchanced 25-10 and gave up over 50 shots on goal.

Something that may have been lost in this "playoff push" is that the Hurricanes are still a team that is rebuilding and going through growing pains. They are still one of the bottom-ten teams in the league in possession and it's hard to be a competing team when you're relying on third liners for most of your scoring and are giving up over 30 shots a game. A game like this was bound to happen and I think it was a humbling experience to say the least. After looking at the underlying stats for tonight's game, it's very surprising that the Canes nearly escaped Detroit with a win, but the better team was rewarded tonight. That's for sure.

As awful as these last couple of games have been, it's important to remember that the Hurricanes is some odd pieces away from being a good team and we saw that tonight as a legitimately great team picked them apart. Granted, Carolina was playing the second night of a back-to-back on the road but they've been outchanced more times than not this season. I just can't remember the last time it was by this big of a margin. Nothing left to do now but put this behind us and enjoy the two days off before Tuesday's showdown with Toronto.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Eric Staal and shooting percentage

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Eric Staal is having a very odd season to say the least. In November, he had only four goals and 12 points and looked to be on pace for his worst season since 2003-04. However, ever since the calendar turned 2012, Staal has been producing at over a point per game and is a good bet to put up at least 70 once the season is over. What's the reason for such a drastic turn-around? Some have said that the health of his brother Marc Staal, who missed time with a concussion after taking a hit from Eric, was the reason for his slow start. Other have said that firing Paul Maurice & hiring Kirk Muller as head coach is the reason for his turnaround, but the truth is that Staal's play has been relatively consistent throughout the year and a lot of what went wrong earlier in the year was beyond his control.

After the jump, we'll explore how Staal's shooting percentage, shot rates and possession numbers have changed over the year and explain why his low +/- really isn't that big of a problem.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Columbus Blue Jackets 3/23/12 Scoring Chances

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The final score of last night's 5-1 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets does not accurate reflect the way the game went, because the Hurricanes did not turn in a horrible effort and outchanced the Jackets 20-15. The bounces just weren't going Carolina's way early and after having most of their best chances turned down by Columbus goalie Steve Mason, the Hurricanes became frustrated and just gave up. That's the best way I can summarize this game. Sometimes you'll have games where absolutely nothing goes right and that's what happened tonight. Cam Ward turned in a very weak performance, neither the powerplay nor penalty kill was working at all and all of Carolina's mistakes ended up resulting in goals against while Columbus was bailed out by Steve Mason numerous times. After numerous attempts to solve the Columbus netminder, the Canes just completely turned off the gas and let the Jackets do whatever they wanted and took a 5-1 loss.

Ever since Kirk Muller took over, one thing the Hurricanes have prided themselves in is giving a full effort every night and competing no matter what the score is. We saw that tonight...until RJ Umberger scored to make it 4-1 Jackets in the third period and then they looked like they had already left for Detroit. It wasn't a pretty sight and it reminded me a lot of the opening night game against Tampa Bay. A three goal lead that late in the game is tough to come back from but the Hurricanes could have at least made an effort to score one goal or generate a few chances to give themselves something to build off for tomorrow's game. Anything is better than just laying flat for the last five minutes.

Carolina had a good showing for two and a half periods even if the score doesn't indicate it, but the way they finished this game is something they shouldn't be proud of.

Buying low

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Jim Rutherford has already stated that one of his intentions this off-season is to sign a first-line winger to help out Eric Staal. There is no doubt that this has been a glaring need for the Hurricanes this season as Staal has had to make due with linemates like Jiri Tlusty and Chad LaRose. Those two players are on pace to have career seasons but even then, neither of them gives the Canes a threatening first line so getting an upgrade there will be critical. When thinking of who Rutherford might pursue this off-season, the two big ticket names are Zach Parise and Alexander Semin, both of whom are going to command a hefty contract and have multiple suitors. As much as I love the idea of the Canes signing Parise, the likelihood of him coming to Raleigh seems low, so we need to look for a back-up plan.

Going over the wingers who are set to become UFAs at the end of the season, if the Hurricanes can't land a big name they will probably have to overpay for someone or "buy low" on a quality player who is coming off a bad season. There are actually many of these players available and I could easily see the Hurricanes making a push for one of them. Who are these players and is it the right way for Carolina to go in free agency this offseason? After the jump we'll take a look at this issue.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers 3/21/12 Scoring Chances

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With last night's 3-1 win over the Florida Panthers, the Hurricanes now sit at 11th place in the Eastern Conference, only two points behind the 10th place Winnipeg Jets and five points out of a playoff spot. Realistically, the Hurricanes will have to win all of their remaining games to even have a shot at the playoffs and that probably won't happen, but just looking at the turnaround this team has gone through since January has been pretty fun to watch. Remember when the Canes were sitting at last place in the Eastern Conference and destined for a lottery pick? Things really have changed in two short months. This run could end up being fruitless and costing us a higher draft pick in the big picture but it's great to see this team playing well again last night's game was one of their strongest performances of the season.

We saw the Hurricanes take advantage of a tired Panthers team by forechecking strong early, make great use of their powerplays and have just about everyone in their top-six producing. You can credit this to a few things; first, the return of Joni Pitkanen, which really had an impact on both the Canes' powerplay and zone exits. Another thing was Kirk Muller reuniting the "Skinns & Finns" line who were on fire tonight and lastly, the penalty kill shutting down all five of the Panthers' powerplay opportunities. Carolina ended up on the positive side of the shot and chance count and hopefully they can continue to play like this to close out the year. The playoffs are just about out of reach but if the Canes can continue to play like they did tonight, they could make things interesting. That's a big if, though.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

How has the Hurricanes powerplay improved?

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Last season, the Hurricanes had one of the worst powerplays in the league as they ranked 24th in powerplay percentage and were in the bottom-five in getting shots on goal. Things weren't expected to get much better this season with the departures of both Erik Cole and Joe Corvo but if you can believe it, Carolina's powerplay has actually improved a lot when it comes to getting shots on goal. They rank 9th in the league in that department but they are still having problems finding the back of the net. Going from having the 24th ranked powerplay to 19th looks like an improvement but the powerplay is still clicking at only 16.4%, which is less than a percentage better than they were last season? They also have scored 40 5-on-4 goals this season and aren't on pace to top their 49 goals from last season.

So, if the Canes aren't scoring goals that many goals with the man advantage, how has their powerplay improved? We'll look at that after the jump.

Home/Road shot differentials

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Shots on goal is a stat that's heavily relied on when looking at how good a team is at controlling possession. However, they are not the most reliable because some arena's scorers have different definitions as to what counts as a "shot on goal." This should not be that complicated because, by definition, a shot on goal is a shot from the opposing team that is stopped by the goaltender or gets past him for a goal. That's easy to figure out, right? In theory, yes but the game of hockey moves at such a fast pace so there are bound to be scoring errors.

For instance, a puck that softly rolls in on a goaltender is sometimes recorded as a "shot on goal" and so is a harmless shot from 200 ft. away that ends up in the goalie's glove. Then you have dangerous chances that don't count as "shots on goal" because the goaltender never made a save, a shot that hits the goalpost is the most common example of this. Net-mouth scrambles also cause a lot of confusion for official scorers because there's a lot of bodies in the way and it's tough to tell how many shots on goal were actually recorded, especially because they are recording live. This is the reason why I have joined the scoring chance project and mainly look at those to judge players on the Hurricanes instead of just shots alone. Metrics like Corsi & Fenwick are also very helpful for judging possession but there's still a lot of noise to sort through with those stats, too.

The most interesting thing with shot-based metrics is how much they vary on home and road games. Every arena has a different official scorer and some team's shot differentials at home are pretty ridiculous. Don't believe me, just look at the numbers.

TEAM Home SF Home SA Road SF Road SA SF Diff SA Diff SD Home SD Road
Bruins 32.35 29.02 28.14 26.9 4.21 2.12 3.33 1.24
Penguins 31.53 23.07 30.8 25.01 0.73 -1.94 8.46 5.79
Flyers 31.44 27.16 27.46 26.44 3.98 0.72 4.28 1.02
Sharks 30.64 26.52 29.53 25.74 1.11 0.78 4.12 3.79
Avalanche 30.14 29.46 26.24 27.26 3.9 2.2 0.68 -1.02
Blues 30.11 22.77 28.28 24.17 1.83 -1.4 7.34 4.11
Red Wings 29.51 22.55 28.28 25.59 1.23 -3.04 6.96 2.69
Coyotes 29.36 28.39 27.19 30.18 2.17 -1.79 0.97 -2.99
Kings 29.23 24.43 28.3 26.34 0.93 -1.91 4.8 1.96
Senators 29.2 28.63 29.21 30.07 -0.01 -1.44 0.57 -0.86
Panthers 28.95 27.39 25.55 28.27 3.4 -0.88 1.56 -2.72
Sabres 28.47 29.82 25.86 29.17 2.61 0.65 -1.35 -3.31
Jets 28.24 25.64 26.68 28.85 1.56 -3.21 2.6 -2.17
Canucks 28.18 29.51 28.66 27.98 -0.48 1.53 -1.33 0.68
Islanders 28.09 26.87 26 27.42 2.09 -0.55 1.22 -1.42
Blue Jackets 27.9 26.17 24.7 31.15 3.2 -4.98 1.73 -6.45
Blackhawks 27.8 26.49 29.58 26.7 -1.78 -0.21 1.31 2.88
Lightning 27.8 22.67 24.41 28.79 3.39 -6.12 5.13 -4.38
Hurricanes 27.6 27.29 26.57 32.45 1.03 -5.16 0.31 -5.88
Oilers 27.35 25.92 24.45 29.63 2.9 -3.71 1.43 -5.18
Flames 27.35 25.33 24.33 30.51 3.02 -5.18 2.02 -6.18
Rangers 27.29 25.27 24.42 26.33 2.87 -1.06 2.02 -1.91
Stars 27.16 26.49 26.99 31.09 0.17 -4.6 0.67 -4.1
Maple Leafs 26.72 26.66 23.88 27.98 2.84 -1.32 0.06 -4.1
Canadiens 26.3 28.42 24.41 29.25 1.89 -0.83 -2.12 -4.84
Capitals 26.2 25.56 26.66 28.86 -0.46 -3.3 0.64 -2.2
Predators 25.5 29.46 22.78 28.77 2.72 0.69 -3.96 -5.99
Devils 25.09 24.07 25.8 25.97 -0.71 -1.9 1.02 -0.17
Ducks 24.18 28.34 25.85 24.55 -1.67 3.79 -4.16 1.3
Wild 23.28 26.97 26.95 31.82 -3.67 -4.85 -3.69 -4.87

Home SF = shots for at home per 60 mins, Home SA = shots allowed at home per 60 mins, Road SF = shots for at home per 60 mins., Road SA = shots allowed on the road per 60 mins., SF Diff = Difference in shots for between home and road games, SA Diff = Difference in shots allowed between home and road games, SD Home = shot differential at home, SA Road = shots differential on the road

There's a lot of information to process here, so I'll break a few things down.

  • The Minnesota Wild have been the subject of ridicule for a lot of advanced stats folks, but there's something odd going on with the scorer at Xcel Energy scorer because Minnesota records much fewer shots at home than they do on the road. They are still getting pasted in terms of shot differential but they are recording fewer shots at home than anyone else in the league, which is strange when you look at their home/road differentials. Their difference in home/road shots for is the largest in the league among teams with a negative differential. I'm a little surprised that this hasn't been looked at more.

  • The Bruins, Flyers, Avalanche and Panthers all record a hell of a lot more shots at home than they do on the road. Does getting the last shift benefit these teams more than others or are they getting some home cooking when it comes to what the scorer thinks.

  • The Ducks give up about four more shots at home than they do on the road. They are near the bottom of the barrel when it comes to possession so this doesn't matter much, but it's interesting that they would be a middle-of-the-road team in shots allowed going by road stats, but at home, they are near the bottom.

  • The Hurricanes, Lightning, Flames, Wild, Stars, Blue Jackets and Oilers appear to be surrendering much fewer shots at home than they are on the road. None of these teams appear to be dominant at home when it comes to wins/losses, though.

  • The Penguins, Sharks, Red Wings and Senators are all getting a hefty amount of shots on goal per game no matter where they play.

  • On the other hand, the New Jersey Devils are only averaging around 25 shots on goal per game at home and on the road but they are doing a fine job at preventing shots in both situations.

There's definitely some odd things going on with the official scorers in some arenas because the amount of shots that some teams are recording at home is pretty abnormal when comparing them with their road numbers. It's one of the reasons why looking at shots stats at face value can be deceiving. Whenever you watch the next Bruins game at TD Garden, take a look at the even strength shot count to see if Boston has a huge advantage or if they have around 35-40 shots recorded, then compare it with their next road game to see what the difference is. There's a good chance that it will be pretty high.

Utilizing Joni Pitkanen

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Carolina's blue-line has been missing a key piece for most of the season as they have gone about three months without the services of Joni Pitkanen. He has been out since early December with both a concussion and a knee injury which required surgery but according to reports, he could be returning to the lineup as soon as Wednesday. His presence on the powerplay has been missed greatly and so have his puck-moving skills so getting him back will be a huge boost to the lineup. The question is, how will the Hurricanes use Pitkanen when he returns? The nice thing about a defenseman like Pitkanen is that you can use him in almost anyway you want. He can play top pairing minutes but can also play the powerplay/offensive specialist role and kill penalties if you need him to. After the jump, we'll take a look at how Kirk Muller and Dave Lewis might use Pitkanen based on who he's had success with in the past and what would work best for the rest of the defense corps.

Hurricanes Weekly Report 3/12 - 3/18

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

We've seen this team put together winning streaks despite getting dominated in the possession game and this past week was one of those times. The Hurricanes won three out of their four games and controlled roughly 45% of the corsi events at even strength. To most people, this would tell people that the Canes are a house of cards and a tough losing streak is right around the corner, but if you were to go by only shots and scoring chances, their underlying numbers do not look nearly as bad. The Hurricanes actually controlled 50.3% of the even strength shots this past week but only 49.5% at even strength, so they were being outplayed but not nearly as bad as the possession numbers indicate.

Numbers aside, I'm sure that many fans are feeling good about this past week. They shutout the top team in the Western Conference, had two comeback victories and a good effort against the Eastern Conference leading New York Rangers. The Canes lack the talent to be a dominant possession team right now but Kirk Muller has them giving their best effort every night and I'm glad that we're starting to see more wins come with it. Although, I am a tad skeptical about how these final ten games will go because the Canes are still spending a lot of time in their own end and that's going to come back to hurt them sooner or later.

After the jump, we'll single out some performances from the last week.