With the Hurricanes currently in a tough losing streak, most people figured that there were going to be some changes to the roster very soon and we saw one of those moves today with Jussi Jokinen being placed on waivers. To most people, this move came as a surprise because Jokinen is known to most people as a "top-six player," a good face-off guy and a solid play-maker. However, most Hurricanes fans are less surprised because he is currently having the worst season of his career. Jokinen has only 4 goals and 10 points in 30 games and has been drifting back-and-forth between the second and third lines for most of the year.

The emergence of Riley Nash as the team's third line center has forced him out of that role and the return of Tuomo Ruutu might have pushed him out of one of the winger spots in the top-six, leaving it hard to find a place for him in the lineup. The Hurricanes have also been pushing the 23-man limit on their roster with the recent call-up of John Muse and Chad LaRose returning from injury, so someone was going to be out regardless and one of those players ended up being Jokinen. One would think that Jokinen has some trade value, but it appears that isn't the case since any team can get Jokinen for free if they desire. The only risk that comes with it is that they will have to take on him $3 mil. salary & cap hit next season, which is a lot for someone with his numbers but not a crippling cost.

No one is going to deny that Jokinen is having a bad season, but is giving him up for no cost a smart move? Even with Nash playing well and Ruutu's return, I find it hard to believe that there is no place for him in the lineup. A look at Jokinen's underlying numbers show that he has actually been pretty good at driving the play forward this season but can not catch a break at all. The Hurricanes are outshooting their opponents by 8 during 5v5 play whenever he is on the ice and that's with him playing some tough minutes on Jordan Staal's line for a good part of the year. Is it Jokinen's fault that the team is shooting at less than 6 percent with him on the ice? I know he takes a lot of flack for missing open shots, but this issue seems to be team-wide lately. In a shortened season, bad bounces can usually make or break you and Jokinen has definitely been on the wrong end of that for most of this year. Still, after reviewing his numbers, I find it kind of hard to believe that he deserves a spot on this team less than Drayson Bowman & Chad LaRose, who have been performing much worse in smaller roles.

If the idea behind this was to send a message, then an easier move would have been to scratch Jokinen for a game or two and look for potential suitors. There aren't going to be many of those now that they can get him for free and a cap floor team such as Phoenix will have no problem taking on his salary. The Hurricanes were obviously in a bind with the roster limit, but I don't think giving up players for free is the smartest idea when your entire organization has been riddled with injuries all season long.

There is also the possibility that this was done to make room for some other players, since the Hurricanes are at the 50-man-roster limit and there have been a lot of rumors swirling about Rutherford wanting to trade for a veteran defenseman. Removing Jokinen's salary and cap hit next season allows them a little more flexibility to do that since they can go after more than just a rental now. There has to be more to this move than just wanting to get rid of a player that's having a bad season, so we will just have to wait and see what else Rutherford has up his sleeves.

If there is one thing Hurricanes fans needed during this losing streak, it was some good news and that got that today when it was announced that the team had signed Alexander Semin to a five-year contract extension worth $7 mil. per season. Semin has been almost a perfect fit on Carolina's first line with Eric Staal and Jiri Tlusty as the trio have been one of the most dangerous units in the league. Both Staal and Semin are currently point-per-game players and are in the Top 25 in the NHL in scoring. They are both currently benefitting from  high on-ice shooting percentages during five-on-five play and are probably performing a bit over their heads right now, but these two are still going to be a dangerous duo for a long, long time now that Semin is signed long-term.

Yes, $7 mil. per season is a lot of money to committ for 5 years under a $64.3 mil. cap and I have my doubts that Semin will continue to produce at a rate of over 3 points per 60 minutes at even strength, but before you go on about how much of an "overpayment" this is, ask yourself how much it would cost the Hurricanes to replace Semin. We are talking about a player who has been a legit first line winger for most of his career, has produced a very high rate in recent seasons and has filled what is a huge void on the Canes first line. People have criticized Rutherford for letting key players walk in the past and he made sure to not let it happen with Semin because replacing him would have been a huge task this off-season. Not to mention that it would have also been a PR nightmare for the team.

Like all contracts, there is obviously a lot of risks attached with this because $7 mil. per year is a lot of cash and Semin just turned 29, so he is exiting what is the prime of his career. His numbers could very well decrease over the next few seasons and make the deal look bad under the new cap. However, it's worth noting that the Canes have been trying to get their full money's worth with Semin. He plays in just about every situation (including the penalty kill now), is being used as a first liner and has been given just about every opportunity to succeed. So far, Semin has taken full advantage of this with his performance and I think Staal has also benefitted a ton from having Sasha as a linemate since he might be the most talented winger he's gotten to play with in years. I've talked about how Staal has elevated the shooting percentage of his linemates in past years and Semin's also had a high on-ice shooting percentage in past seasons, so it's possible that they could have some great years together after this season.

The only drawback of the Semin contract is the money and how much the Hurricanes have committed to next season under a $64.3 mil. salary cap. I have no issues with Semin being paid that much, but the Canes now have over $40 mil. of that cap space taken up by nine players. The Canes have themselves a nice core locked up, but the issue is going to be building around this corps with cheap contracts. They have plenty of space to give Justin Faulk a nice raise after Joni Pitkanen & Jussi Jokinen's contracts come off the books, but they are going to need to find bargains to occupy other depth roles. Jiri Tlusty is also due for a new contract after next season, as well and he may not come cheap unless his counting numbers take a nose-dive.

Carolina's younger players can probably step up into complimentary roles with the top-six spots being filled out, so the issue is going to be building a competitive defense corps on a tight budget. They have Gleason & Harrison locked up for awhile and should be able to re-sign Faulk but after that, things get a little dicey. It's doubtful that Ryan Murphy will be ready for a top-four role as a 20 year old and guys like Keegan Lowe, Austin Levi, Danny Biega, etc. are probably second pairing guys at the most. Blue-line help may need to be a top priority for Rutherford this summer.

There are going to be a lot of people against this signing but I think it's one the Hurricanes needed to make. They aren't going to find another Alexander Semin on the open market and he seems to like where he is in Carolina, so it's good that they were able to come to an agreement. The challenge is going to be building around him and the rest of the pieces Carolina has locked up for the next few years.

It's been a pretty tough week for the Hurricanes. They lost all three of their games, one of them coming to the bottom-feeding Florida Panthers, gained only one point in the standings and now sit four points behind the Winnipeg Jets in the Southeast Division. To make matters even worse, the Washington Capitals have undergone a bit of a resurgence winning all four of their games and are now only two points behind Carolina for the second place spot. The breathing room that Carolina once had at the top of the division is now all but gone and things are going to be ultra tight from here on out. One advantage the Canes have right now is that they still have three games in hand over Winnipeg and Washington but those will not mean much if they don't take advantage of them.

A month ago, the Canes were in the driver's seat in the Southeast and all they needed to do was not completely bottom-out for them to remain in that spot. Since then, they've won only four of their last ten games, are currently stuck in a five-game losing streak and have injuries at key positions. My hopes for the Canes playoff chances are still cautiously optimistic because of what the bottom of the Eastern Conference looks like, but the margin for error right now is very, very slim.

Southeast Division Standings

55 Points

GR = Games Remaining, Pts = Points, Avail. = Points available, Needed = Points needed to 55, Point% = Percentage of games they need to earn points to get to 55, Div. = Divisional games remaining 

52 Points

I added another scenario this week since it looks like 55 points will be what clinches a playoff spot in the East while 52 points will give a team a good enough chance. Either way, Carolina and Winnipeg need earn points in the same percentage of their remaining games and the Hurricanes have a slight advantage thanks to three games in hand. Again, they are going to need to take full advantage of those three extra games for them to mean anything, especially their two upcoming matches against the Jets. The Canes are going to need to win at least 10-11 of their remaining games if they want to be in the playoffs, which is doable but they can not afford to go winless in another week.

Washington's recent run might make things exciting towards the end, but they will need to sustain this hot streak if they want to make it to the playoffs. That's tough to do no matter who you are, but the returns of Brooks Laich and MIke Green could help give them a boost at the right time. Tampa Bay appears to be all but eliminated barring a miracle run and Florida is pretty much done, as well. 

The room for error is low for the Hurricanes right now, but the numbers are slightly in their favor over Winnipeg.

The difference between Carolina and Winnipeg's underlying numbers are slim. Carolina is slightly a better team at even strength but you have to ask yourself how much of a difference that will make with only 18 games remaining. The better team doesn't always come out on top in a small sample size and that's especially true if they aren't getting any bounces in their favor. The Canes have actually been receiving better puck-luck than the Jets since they have high on-ice shooting and save percentages at even strength for the entire season. It's been the other way around lately and it's also possible that Carolina's even strength play and goaltending can decline due to the injuries to Justin Faulk and Dan Ellis respectively. The Canes still have three games remaining against Winnipeg and they need to win those to get back in the driver's seat in the Southeast. I'm not convinced that Winnipeg is a better team than Carolina (one hot streak does equate to a full season) but they are in a good position now and could end up winning the division if they beat them in their three remaining head-to-head matchups.

I have been tracking scoring chances for the Hurricanes for almost two years now and the way I usually present them in on here is in the form of plus/minus, showing how many chances the team is recording and giving up while a certain player is on the ice. The reason why I do this is to show how good or bad a player is at territorial play when it concerns creating and preventing scoring chances. There is obviously more to creating scoring chances than just the player who is taking the shot, which is why I look at on-ice differentials to see everyone who was involved in the play instead of who finished it.

However, it's possible that there could be some value into looking at who is creating the most scoring chances for each time. I've mentioned a few times recently that the Hurricanes scoring chance numbers are somewhat different from their shot differential stats. Going by just their Fenwick or Corsi numbers (shot attempt differentials), the Hurricanes look like a very good possession team, but they are barely breaking even in scoring chances (50.5% during even strength play). So while the Hurricanes are possessing the puck in the offensive zone and getting a lot of shots off, not enough of them have been scoring chances. It's been shown that Fenwick (5v5 shots on goal & missed shot differential) has a strong correlation with scoring chances, so it's possible that the Hurricanes scoring chance differential will improve as long as they continue to drive possession. We haven't been seeing it lately, but the numbers remain on the Hurricanes side as of right now. 

The whole issue of "shot quality" has been beaten to death by the hockey statistics community because it's something that has yet to be proven by anyone, but it appears to be an issue with the Hurricanes right now. No one has ever denied that some players have the ability to get into scoring areas better than others, but their ability to repeat it over a long period of time hasn't been proven. With that in mind, we're going to take a look at which players have been creating the most scoring chances for the Hurricanes this season, where their shots are coming from and if there is a relation between this and Carolina's recent offensive struggles.

Since the injury to Cam Ward, the Hurricanes have gone on a bit of a spiral. They've lost six of the nine games he has missed, totaling a record of 3-5-1 during that time. This has led some analysts to believe that Ward's injury is responsible for the Hurricanes recent tailspin when that is anything but true. Ward has started the majority of Carolina's games since 2006, so it is a little odd seeing some different names between the pipes, but both Dan Ellis and Justin Peters have been able to get the job done in his absence. Sure, they don't have his reputation and announcers are never going to say that one of these two goalies can "steal" games for your team, but it's hard to argue with their results thus far.

Despite their overall records being poor, both Ellis and Peters have given the Hurricanes more than solid goaltending since Ward's injury. In fact, they've been performing at a level that's well above average during even strength play. They've given up a couple of short-handed goals on breakaways as well as a few powerplay goals, which has driven down their overall save percentage, but as a whole, their play has been very strong. There is all this talk about how the Hurricanes "need Ward" to steal games for them when the two goalies they are icing right now are doing more than enough to keep the Hurricanes in games right now. Ellis has been especially good and while I wouldn't expect him to sustain that over a long period of time, he is probably good enough to be at least average (or even above average) for the rest of the season depending on how many games he has to start.

Ward obviously has a big role on the team as one of the leaders, but the Ellis/Peters have been more than adequate filling in for him this season and should not be blamed for the Hurricanes recent struggles. Things might be different if Ellis' leg laceration is serious enough to keep him out for a long period of time, but neither he or Peters has been the problem thus far. The bigger issue has been the play in front of the goaltenders.

Hurricanes Even Strength Stats Since Ward's Injury

GF/GA = Goals for/Goals against, SA/SF = Shots for/Shots against, CF/CA = Chances for/Chances against, CorF/CorA = Corsi For/Corsi Against

The spectacular goaltending from Ellis & Peters has kept the Hurricanes goal differential even, but they've been getting outshot and outchanced during five-on-five play. This emphasizes how much help they've been getting from their goaltending during this recent rough spell because things could be a lot worse. Compare Ward's numbers to his replacement's and it's hard to believe that things would be much different even if he was healthy. I know that Ward had a few great starts before his injury, but 3-4 great starts are not indicative of an entire season. Either way, I'm sure most would agree that the play in front of the goaltenders is what needs to change the most for Carolina.

The most interesting thing about their numbers here is that the Canes have been a good possession team, but it isn't resulting in them getting many shots or scoring chances. In past year's, it's been shown that possession leads to shots/scoring chances, so we could see more offense out of this team as long as they continue to generate zone time. However, even with that, the Hurricanes are still among one of the worst teams in the league at suppressing shots during even strength play and their goaltenders have done a pretty good job of keeping them in games despite that.

Yes, the Hurricanes have fallen on tough times with injuries this season and Ward's injury is one of the biggest, but saying that his absence is the cause for the team's struggles is ignoring the facts.

Even through the Hurricanes recent struggles, one thing the team has been doing well is controlling territorial play. They are a top-10 team in the NHL in controlling 5v5 shot attempts and are around the same area in close game situations. This suggests that the Hurricanes recent struggles are nothing they can't pull out of and they should be able to get back on track if they continue to control territorial play. However, something that I have been noticing is that while they are controlling the shots & territorial play, they are not getting the better end of scoring chances at even strength. Carolina has been outchanced in all of their last four games despite having more shot attempts than the opposing team, which makes me a little more skeptical about how they'll perform down the stretch.

One reason why the team's scoring chance percentage is lower than their possession rate could be due to how often they miss the net. I mentioned how this was a problem in the New Jersey game and it really goes beyond that. How many times this season have we seen the Hurricanes set up a good looking play in the offensive zone only to have a shot go just wide of the net or not get a shot away at all? Most Canes fans will answer "too many times." Some scoring chance counters do count missed shots as chances but I do not, so missed shots could be a reason why they are struggling in this department.

The question is how often to the Hurricanes miss the net compared to the rest of the league and who are the greatest offenders on the team? Thanks to Hockey Analysis, we can find out the answer to this.

If you're willing to dig deep and find out what is wrong with the Carolina Hurricanes right now then I commend you because I've tried to break things down several times and have yet to come to an answer.  I was willing to write off the Tampa Bay game as a bad night but in the last three games, we've seen this team play well for maybe one period and then let the opponents dictate the play for the rest of the game. The most frustrating thing about it is that the Hurricanes haven't just "lost a step" after first periods, they get completely run over. This was the case against the Rangers on Monday night and last night in their 4-1 loss to the Devils. 

The Hurricanes started off strong despite falling behind 1-0 on a fluke goal and then went on a complete free fall after the first period. Recording only seven total shots in four minutes of play and only three scoring chances isn't going to win you a ton of games and neither is playing only 20 minutes of good hockey.

We've all seen this movie before. The Hurricanes came into this game in need of a win and were taking on a struggling team who were in a similar situation. The Canes may have lost their last four, but the Devils had only won three of their last 10 and really starting to lose ground in the playoff race. This was a perfect chance for them to right the ship and get a much needed win. Adding to that, the Hurricanes were also receiving a bit of a morale boost with Tuomo Ruutu returning to the lineup so this was the perfect night for them to get things back on track.

The result? Another dud of a game and a 4-1 loss. You would think that the Hurricanes would put together a more complete performance after getting embarrassed by Florida on Tuesday night, but this game ended up being very similar to that. The Canes were outworked in just about every area and their offense was held stagnant for most of the night by the Devils. Taking nothing away from the Devils since they played a terrific game defensively, but when a team totals only seven shots on goal through 40 minutes of play, I think it's safe to say that they were outworked and didn't give their best performance. That was the case for the Hurricanes tonight and it's the same thing that we have seen for the past week or so where the team plays well in spurts but was outworked overall and deserved to lose.

What's most frustrating about this loss in particular is that for the first 20 minutes, Carolina looked like a team that was going to turn things around tonight. They came out with a lot of jump and played about as good of a first period as you could imagine, outshooting the Devils 11-4 and had plenty of opportunities to get on the board. Unfortunately, Martin Brodeur had an answer for all of the Hurricanes chances and Carolina found themselves trialing after one after giving up the strangest goal you'll ever see. The Devils were whistled for a penalty, which prompted goaltender Dan Ellis to go to the bench so the Canes could get an extra skater. It was then that Jordan Staal tried to send a pass to Tim Gleason but the puck ended up ricocheting off the boards and into the Hurricanes vacant net. If there was one play that can sum up how everything has been going for the Canes lately, that play would be it. When you're shooting at only 3% at even strength over five games, that's generally a sign that the Hockey Gods aren't shining on you and this goal was just icing on the cake.

Even with that, the Hurricanes did a lot of good things in that first period and could have built off it to tie the game in the second. That obviously didn't happen and the Hurricanes "response" to this was having only seven shots on goal in the remaining two periods and getting outscored 3-1. Just more of the same old things we've been seeing too often from this team for the past week or so and it's getting to the point where the fans are getting restless.

Did the team have some bounces go against them tonight? Absolutely. Would they have made the difference in them winning or losing? No, because they were outplayed tonight and have been getting outplayed, outhustled and outworked in just about every game for the past week. They still have time to turn it around but the Hurricanes are trending in the wrong direction at the absolute worst time. Having four days off to get refocused might help them but the only thing that matters is what they do during game time, which has been severely lacking as of late.

If losing four games in a row wasn't bad enough, Hurricanes fans also received news that the team's best defenseman, Justin Faulk, will miss the next 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain. The Hurricanes have been destroyed by injuries for most of the season, but I have a feeling that Faulk's absence might have the most impact on the team. I know this sounds like an overreaction because Faulk is only 21 and is barely keeping his head above water territorially, but the role Faulk plays is one that's very, very hard to replace and I really don't know if anyone else on the roster can take over for him. 

This isn't quite as serious as the team losing three defensemen like they did for a portion of February, but it's still pretty serious when you look at how much ground Faulk covers compared to the rest of the defense corps. Even with this injury, the Canes still has a legit shot at the Southeast Division title and the playoffs, they will just need the rest of their defense corps to step up in a big way. Find out why after the jump.

The roller coaster ride that is the Carolina Hurricanes 2013 season has gone down yet another slope as the team has lost their last four game and are really starting to feel the heat of the Winnipeg Jets and the rest of the Eastern Conference. After their most recent showing against the Florida Panthers where they lost 4-1 and gave up 44 shots on goal, I asked the question of whether the Hurricanes were a bad team or a good team that is going through a rough patch. When you've played only 25-30 games, it opens the door for some crazy things to happen, but I think we've had enough games to say that the Hurricanes have been a decent team at even strength this year.

Even through the losing streak, the Hurricanes have been owning at least 50% of the shots and scoring chances. They aren't exactly dominating teams, though so their goal-rate has declined a little and will probably continue to throughout the rest of the season. They've been shooting at only 3.6% at even strength the last four games but have been getting stellar goaltending from Peters & Ellis, so their goal percentage has remained fine. I'd expect some regression to occur in both ways since they aren't going to stay that unlucky with shooting the puck and it's unlikely that Ellis/Peters can maintain a .930+ save percentage. 

This begs the question, though. How good are the Hurricanes? Is this a playoff team or a squad that is just going to finish outside of the playoffs? Compared to teams who are also in the race, the Canes appear to be good enough to make it in but that's not taking their terrible special teams into account.

Carolina's powerplay and penalty kill's success rates are in the bottom of the league and their PK is one of the worst in the NHL at suppressing shots. Their PK was playing well before the last four games, where their luck eventually ran out and now find themselves in the bottom-five again. Their powerplay is a bit of a different story because while it looks bad by the eye-test, Behind the Net suggests that they are getting unlucky while playing 5-on-4. They are a top-ten team at generating shots there, but just not finding the back of the net for whatever reason. Similar to what the Montreal Canadiens went through last year before they fired Jacques Martin.

Even as a numbers guy, I have to raise my eyebrows at the data here because the powerplay really has not looked good all season. While they are generating shots, they aren't getting many good chances and can barely contain the zone for more than 30 seconds. The data suggests that the Canes should remain patient here and wait for the goals to come but with only 19 games remaining left in the season, there isn't much time for them to just wait it out.

Then you have to factor in Justin Faulk's injury, which will sideline him for the next 2-4 weeks. Faulk may not be Carolina's best defenseman at controlling territorial play, but he logs a ton of minutes against other team's first lines. The fact that he is able to break even & drive the play in those situations is huge and I'm not sure if the team has another blue-liner who can replace him. Tim Gleason, Joni Pitkanen, Jamie McBain, Joe Corvo and Jay Harrison are capable of playing big minutes but none of them have been as good as Faulk when thrown into a shutdown role.

My mind says that it isn't time to panic because the Hurricanes have been a good team for most of this year, but the skeptic in me is very worried about how the next few weeks will go. They have some big games coming up against Winnipeg and the Faulk injury along with the poor special teams has me less optimistic than usual. People often underrated how big losing a defenseman can be, so these next 5-8 games could be very tough if the rest of the defense corps can't pick up the slack. It isn't time to panic just yet but we could be getting close pending how the next several games go.