Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes 11/4/11 Scoring Chances

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

I would mark this game as one of the most frustrating losses of the year. Judging from the boxscore, the Canes were overmatched and blown out but the truth is that Carolina was in this game for a long time and had multiple opportunities to come back but failed and had yet another third period meltdown. I would put this on the same level as the Flyers and Lightning games in terms of how bad of a collapse this was. Carolina wasn't playing awful at even strength the first forty minutes and could have easily tied the game in the third when the score was 2-1 but they committed a bad penalty, gave up an early goal and then didn't bother to show up for the rest of the period.

We'll revisit the disaster after the jump

Game 14 Preview: Stars at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Dallas Stars (9-3-0) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5-5-3)
RBC Center, 1:30 p.m.
TV: NHL Network, FS-Southwest

Since the Panthers have a bye week, here's hoping that most of the Carolinas tune into the Hurricanes Sunday afternoon showdown with the Dallas Stars. This is the final game of Carolina's brief home stand and I said at the beginning of the week that Carolina needed to get a point in all three of these games to help them in the standings (mainly looking towards the future). The game against Tampa Bay was exactly what I wanted to see from this team. They came out strong, converted on the powerplay, the first line had a good game and they killed penalties while the game on Friday against the Caps was exactly the opposite of what I wanted to see from this team. There were numerous defensive breakdowns, the powerplay failed and it was just an ugly game overall. I am hoping for a much better effort in today's game against Dallas and pray that it is nothing like the last time we played the Stars. I have wiped most of that game from my memory and you should have too.

Either way, it's looking like the Canes are going to have a hard time without Jussi Jokinen judging from how the powerplay looked against Washington but let's hope things can turn around here. Maybe introduce some new blood into the powerplay in the form of some fourth liners who should be getting more ice time. Cough.

Lines, analysis & more after the jump

Jiri Tlusty: stop-gap or solution?

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

When you take a look at the scoring chance numbers for the Carolina Hurricanes this year, you'll find a couple names near the top of the list that might surprise you. One of those is former first round draft pick and Toronto Maple Leafs cast-off Jiri Tlusty. I, along with many others, wondered if Tlusty would even make the team out of camp this year and even if he did, it was wondered if he would be nothing more than a fourth liner on this team. We're a month into the season now and he already has half of his point total from last year (which is only six points) and is now playing on the first line with Eric Staal and Chad LaRose....what? Oh, I should also mention that he has the highest scoring chance percentage on the team at 63.9%. Again, what?

I know Tlusty always had a lot of talent and skill but I think most would agree that Canes fans (and hockey fans in general) didn't have too high of expectations for him, so what he's doing now is a pretty big surprise. The question is that can he keep this play up and improve on it or is this all just a flash in the pan? After the jump, we will examine some details of the 23-year old's season to see just how impressive he's really been.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes 11/1/11 Scoring Chances

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Carolina continues to play well at home as they were able to avenge their opening night loss to the Lightning by beating them 4-2 last Tuesday. Once again, we saw the Canes get off to a very strong start but run into a few road blocks along the way that could have cost them the game. The difference this time is that instead of letting all of the negative events snowball like they did on Saturday night, the Canes responded and persevered in route to a victory. This was a great way to start off the month and hopefully a sign of good things to come the rest of the way.

Chances and analysis after the jump

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Southeast Division Roundup: October

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

At the end of each month, I am going to reflect on the happenings within the Southeast division to get a better idea of the competition the Canes are going up against. What I'm going to do with this feature is first post the standings after a month, then the team's performance during that month going by goals for, goals against, special team performance and Pythagorean win expectation. A Pythagorean win expectation is a formula that's used a lot in baseball where they take the amount of runs a team scored during a year, square it and divide it by the sum of the squared amount of runs the team scored and gave up to get a winning percentage. This shows how much a team is milking the OT point and how many wins a team "earned." I'm not 100% sold on this method for hockey but I find it interesting so I'm experimenting with it for now. After that, I'll break down each team's performance during the month and determine who I feel has been the team's three best players during the month.

We'll start after the jump.

The impact of Jussi Jokinen's injury

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

When Jussi Jokinen collided with Tampa Bay forward Ryan Shannon last night, his leg/ankle landed in a very awkward position and immediately I knew that it would be something bad, which it was. Jokinen is now out 3-4 weeks with what is being called a "lower-body injury." Jokinen was the team's best forward when playing at even strength last month and has been the most consistent when providing offense so this injury is huge. Carolina's second line has arguably been their strongest this season and Jokinen plays a big role on it so that makes things even worse.

However, there are some positives we can draw out of this situation. The first one being that it opens up a spot in the top-six and both Ruutu and Skinner can play center so they can possibly take over Jokinen's role there. When it comes to finding someone to move up to that line, I made a post yesterday about how the Canes have two young, offensively gifted prospects playing on the fourth line this year. This could be Zach Boychuk's biggest chance to shine and show that he can be a top-six forward in the NHL. I don't know if this means he will take over Jokinen's spot or play on Staal's line (which isn't out of the question) but I think he will get his shot. The same goes for Zac Dalpe but he will be playing in Charlotte on a conditioning stint for the next week or so.

Also, Drayson Bowman was called up from Charlotte to take over Jokinen's roster spot and if anyone remembers, I wrote a post about him and how I wanted him to make the team out of camp. I'm a little biased because I prefer a team that's in a rebuild phase like Carolina is right now to give their younger players more time in the NHL if they have the roster space. Bowman already played 23 games during the 2009-10 season and failed to record a point but if you read the article linked earlier in the paragraph, I said that he was creating plenty of chances with tough ice time. He was playing bottom-six minutes but Bowman is pegged as more of a goal-scorer so I think this could be a big opportunity for him, as well. He did well in a checking role last season so it would not surprise me to see him used on the fourth line here but I wouldn't rule out top-six minutes for him either.

Of course, there are players like Anthony Stewart and Alexei Ponikarovsky who may get another shot at the second line, too. Hell, Jiri Tlusty is playing on the first line now so anything can happen. My point is that while this is a huge setback, it also provides a big opportunity for the younger players on the roster. I just hope they can live up to the task because Jokinen was putting up points, creating chances, winning face-offs and playing a lot of tough minutes over the first month. Those are some big shoes to fill.

Home/Road Zone Starts

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

I mentioned in the Tampa Bay preview that one of the reasons that I'm looking forward to this homestand is because Paul Maurice will be able to match lines easier and be able to use his players more effectively. Carolina has played eight of their first 11 games on the road so Maurice hasn't gotten the luxury of having the last change for most of this season and it's had a slight effect on some players zone starts. I wanted to see just how much Maurice is using the last change to his advantage this season and how it compares to how players were used on the road. To do this, I took each player's offensive zone start rate from Carolina's home and away games and did some simple math to figure out the difference. The trade-off some players had were pretty ridiculous.

More after the jump

Game 12 Preview: Lightning at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Tampa Bay Lightning (5-4-2) at Carolina Hurricanes (4-4-3)
RBC Center, 7 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, Sun Sports
Opposing Viewpoints: Lightning Hockey Blog, Raw Charge

After playing seven of their first 11 games on the road, Carolina returns to RBC Center for a three game homestand starting with a rematch of their season opener against the Tampa Bay Lightning. I'm sure most fans remember what happened that game so I won't need to refresh your memory on that. It's best we forget about that disaster anyway. What I can tell you is that Carolina has been playing well at home this year. A 2-1-1 record isn't going to set the world on fire but the only games Carolina outshot their opponent were their four home games and that was a big factor in them earning points in 3/4 of those games. I know a lot of it has to do with Paul Maurice getting the final change and being able to match lines (more on that later) but the Canes using home ice advantage like this can go a long way over the season. These next three games will be very interesting and it's important that Carolina at least earns points in all of them.

Analysis, lines and more after the jump

The Fourth Line

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

One thing many Carolina fans, myself included, have been frustrated with is Paul Maurice's lack of use of the team's fourth line. It depends on the team, but most NHL coaches usually give their fourth lines 5-9 minutes a game and that number changes depending on what the score is and what type of players make up those lines. If you have a fourth line like the Devils that consists of players like Cam Janssen and Eric Boulton, you can expect them to hover around 5-6 minutes a game because they are generally liabilities on the ice outside of their physical presence. However, a fourth line like Boston's which consists of solid defensive players like Gregory Campbell and Daniel Paille will likely play closer to 9-10 minutes a game because they bring more to the table and can help protect leads in close games.

The Hurricanes fourth line this year has regularly consisted of Tim Brent, Anthony Stewart and one of Brett Sutter, Zac Dalpe and Zach Boychuk. We have a defensive center, a somewhat one-dimensional player and two rookies who are known for their offensive potential. The fact that the last two have been receiving fourth line minutes is probably what's been frustrating fans the most because Maurice has not made much use for the fourth line this year. He has given the them an average of approximately six minutes per game and uses them in extremely sheltered situations.

Here's a graph showing how much ice time the fourth line has received this year compared to others.

The fourth line has received roughly 15% of Carolina's even strength ice time this season, which is very low compared to how much it's been spread out among the other forwards. Also take note of how the third line is getting slightly more minutes than the second line. Sutter's line was used a lot more in games where the Canes were leading for a long stretch of time (@Boston, vs Chicago). The game where the fourth line received the most ice time was the 5-1 beatdown against Philadelphia. They had an average of about nine minutes that game and I'm guessing Maurice decided to give them more ice time because the team was trailing by so much.

What I want to know is how other teams deploy their fourth lines, so I'm going to be paying special attention to that this season and will have a post on it once I compile on the data. Going back to Carolina's issue, I think the bigger problem is the personnel Maurice chooses for the fourth line. I'm guessing six minutes per game is the average for most team's fourth lines, but why are two players with loads of offensive potential like Dalpe and Boychuk being used there? I've heard from a couple sources that it's to "strengthen their defensive games" but they would be in Charlotte now if that were the case and wouldn't be starting over 50% of their shifts in the opponent's zone. Brent fits the role fine, Stewart does to an extent but Dalpe and Boychuk really should be getting more minutes, especially with the team having scoring issues and the wings on the first line being a revolving door.

Hurricanes Week 3 Performances

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Carolina finished this most recent week the same way as they did the one before with a 1-1-1 record. The big difference this time is they actually outshot two of their opponents and didn't need to rely on special teams to win their one game. Hell, they actually played some great hockey in the games against Ottawa and Chicago which is very refreshing to see. Unfortunately, things ended on a bad note with the 5-1 beatdown they took at the hands of the Flyers and they ended up being outscored 7-6 this week. If we can take any positives it's that the team is playing slightly better at even strength than they were earleir in the month but there's still plenty of things to work on. The powerplay converting only once on ten attempts is one problem along with the top line still being in a pretty bad slump. There's a lot of good and bad to break down, so let's go through it all after the jump.