Some say that the NHL is a sport where you live and die by special teams and while I believe that controlling the play at even strength is more important, special teams performance can determine the outcome of a lot of games. Take Carolina's game last night against the Flyers for instance, the chances were even at 10 a piece when playing at even strength but the difference is that the Flyers scored on four of their chances while the Canes only scored once. It was the Canes special teams which kept them in this game. Yep, two shorthanded goals (one on a penalty shot) from Patrick Dwyer are what put things within reach for Carolina. Oh, you thought I was going to say something about the powerplay? I should because they had a big role in Carolina losing this game. On five powerplay opportunities, the Canes created only one scoring chance and one of those opportunities came when the game was 4-3 in favor of the Flyers. Like I said, special teams can win and lose games for some teams and this ineffective powerplay is really hurting the Canes right now.

More after the jump

Philadelphia Flyers (9-4-3) at Carolina Hurricanes (6-8-3)
7 p.m. RBC Center
TV: FS-Carolinas, CSN-Philadelphia

I described the Canes last game against the Flyers as a "burn the tape" kind of game because of the disaster of a third period the Canes had. Seems that has been a recurring theme since then because Carolina's endured numerous third period meltdowns ever since that loss. Even in their 5-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins they took a 3-0 lead into the third period only to have Pittsburgh tie it. Let's hope the team has tightened things up since then and will try to not let the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell line dominate them like last time. *knocks on wood*

Analysis, lines & more after the jump

Dale Tallon and the Florida Panthers were the laughing stock of the NHL this off-seaosn after the former made numerous ridiculous signings and trades in an effort to get his team above the salary cap floor. There were a lot who believed that this team would be one of the worst in the league yet again and doomed for years to come. We are over a month into the season now and Florida finds themselves at 8-5-3 and two points out of the top spot of the Southeast Division. Whenever a bad team like this gets off to a hot start, my first inclination is to look at their underlying numbers to see how much luck they've been receiving (see the Ducks last year) and find out if they are as good as they appear. Florida has gotten their fair share of luck but the difference is they have actually played well over their first 16 games.

More after the jump

The final frame has been Carolina's enemy all season long and tonight's game had recipe for disaster written all over it. The Canes were being outplayed slightly by Pittsburgh for the first two periods but were able to take a 3-0 lead into the third by containing them in the neutral zone, killing penalties well and Ward had to stand on his head a few times, especially in the first period. Then things got really crazy in the third with the Pens finally putting a stranglehold on Carolina and clawing their way back into the game and eventually tie it up at a 3-3. Carolina had to endure seven unanswered chances from the Penguins in that period before the Canes finally established an attack of their own and reclaimed the lead with a goal from Eric Staal. All Staal did was go to the side of the crease and pick up the loose change after Chad LaRose got a shot on net. Sometimes that's all you need to do to break a slump.

After that point, Carolina finally settled things down and allowed only two Pittsburgh scoring chances the rest of the way and snapped a four game losing skid. Ward certainly earned this win with how many times he was forced to stop Evgeni Malkin and James Neal tonight.

Pittsburgh Penguins (10-3-3) at Carolina Hurricanes (5-8-3)
RBC Center, 7 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, ROOT Sports

Remember what I said yesterday about trying to be optimistic? The Canes are making it hard for me to do that. It's not just because they have lost five in a row and failed to score more than two goals in each of those games, but also the fact that injuries are piling on. Joni Pitkanen is out week-to-week with a foot injury and I can't stress out huge of an injury this is. The Canes do have a lot of NHL-quality defenders at their disposal but Pitkanen is the backbone on this defense. He plays in all situations, leads the team in time on ice and is actually keeping his head above water in corsi on a team that is getting shelled at even strength. This also means that someone else is going to have to step up and take over the minutes that Pitkanen plays. As much as everyone doesn't want to hear it, that someone might be Tomas Kaberle. He hasn't been used in that role in awhile but I'm all for giving it a shot and he, along with Jay Harrison, played the most minutes on defense last night against the Rangers. Let's see how Kaberle does when he's not protected as much as he has been this year. 

Also of note is Paul Maurice hinting that Eric Staal could see some time at wing tonight. I'm all for trying anything at this rate because Staal just can't seem to find his way onto the score sheet no matter what. His underlying numbers have improved a lot in the past couple weeks but the results haven't come yet so why not shake things up a bit? Everyone's guess is that Brandon Sutter will center his line and I like that idea because Sutter has a lot of offensive potential but he has been used in a more defensive role ever since being on the Hurricanes. Let's see how he does when he's not buried with defensive zone starts for a change. His 21-goal season a couple years ago was mostly due to a high shooting percentage but he's a great skater and has shown some goal-scoring ability so I'm all for giving this a shot. Carolina is going to need all the help they can get against Pittsburgh tonight.

Lines, analysis and more after the jump

Ever since Martin Gerber was played out of a job by Cam Ward in the 2006 Stanley Cup playoffs, the Canes have constantly relied on Ward for their goaltending and haven't gone to great lengths to provide a back-up to him. In the five seasons Ward has been the Hurricanes franchise netminder, he has started in at least 70% of their games with the exception of the 2009-10 season when he was out for about a month with a leg laceration. His back-ups in all of those seasons have basically been replacement level goalies ranging from AHL call-ups (Justin Peters) to waiver claims (Manny Legace). Last season Ward played in a career high 74 games and had his best season in the NHL, but the Hurricanes began to see that the still relatively young goalie was getting overworked and may need a few more games off this season. Thus, they went out and signed Brian Boucher to two-year deal worth $950k per year. That's reasonably more than they spent on other back-ups but how different is Boucher from the other goaltenders who played behind Ward? We'll explore that after the jump.

I was going to wait until I finished double-checking the chances from the Devils game to post this but I figured it would be best to get it over with fast. Last night's game ended in yet another 5-1 loss as the Hurricanes took a tie game into the third period and collapsed after a series of bad bounces and atrocious defense. This is similar to last week's game against Washington where the Canes were hanging tough with the Rangers for at least the first forty minutes and then a series of ugly plays occured and next thing you know the game was out of reach. People will point to Eric Staal's high sticking penalty which led to a powerplay goal by Dan Girardi as the turning point but the Canes were failing to create chances all game. They arguably had the advantage territorially for the first two periods but they couldn't create and take advantage of them. That came back to hurt them in the end when the implosion occurred. Being outchanced 8-2 in the final frame and giving up four goals was just icing on the cake

More after the jump.

Carolina Hurricanes (5-7-3) at New York Rangers (8-3-3)
Madison Square Garden, 7 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, MSG

With the losing streak now at three games and the Canes near the bottom of the conference, you would believe that things are all gloom and doom in Carolina right now. It doesn't help that tonight they are going up against the surging New York Rangers who have won five in a row. I, however, am optimistic about tonight's game because the Canes had a relatively strong game against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday and are finally starting to let some of their young talent play. All season long I have been waiting for guys like Zach Boychuk and Zac Dalpe to get a shot in the top-six and one of them finally has. That one was Zach Boychuk (Dalpe is a healthy scratch, unfortunately) as he had one of his strongest games as an NHL-er last Tuesday when he played on the second line with Tuomo Ruutu and Alexei Ponikarovsky. Maurice has rewarded his good play with a promotion to the top line and now we finally get our chance to see if Boychuk can work with this year's Eric Staal, who really needs to get the wheels turning at even strength. Oh, and that Jussi Jokinen guy who was the team's best forward in the first month is returning after many thought he would be done for at least a month.

Optimism all around for me.

Lines and analysis after the jump

Shooting percentages and PDO are things that I have been monitoring this year because there's a lot of Canes players who have fallen on some rotten luck this season (Eric Staal comes to mind) while others have been much more fortunate. I know saying a player has been "unlucky" is a lazy way to dismiss their shortcomings, but sometimes that's just what happens. Take a player like Alexander Ovechkin last year. He is normally an elite goal-scorer, a terrific possession driver and can be counted on for at least 40 goals per season. Last year, he netted only 32 but was still posting great possession numbers and appeared to be no worse than he was last season at driving the play. The fact is he was shooting the puck at a much lower percentage than his career average and simply just fell on some bad luck. That has carried over into this year, too.

When determining how lucky a player is, we normally look at their on-ice shooting percentage and PDO. An average shooting percentage is about 8-9 percent and an average PDO (which is just a player's shooting + save percentage) is 1000. A player with a low PDO is said to be very unlucky and it's the other way around for a player who has a PDO of over 1000. However, this isn't a tell-all stat as it only states how lucky a player is and things like corsi, scoring chances, etc. need to be taken into consideration. If a player is getting drowned in corsi, then he will have a low PDO because he isn't doing much. There are also some player who rarely shoot the puck and have a low shooting percentage as a result.

Let's see who has been lucky and unlucky on the Canes so far this year.

There was a time when the the Hurricanes were carrying nine defensemen on the roster but that number has now dwindled down to seven, but you can still make the argument that Carolina has eight NHL-ready defensemen in their system, which is why there has been a lot of buzz about Carolina possibly trading one of their spare defenseman. I am all for keeping Justin Faulk in Charlotte because he is only 19 and think he could use some more time to work on his all-around game, especially with the amount of offense-first guys Carolina has on their blue line right now. That leaves seven on the roster and the two fighting for playing time are Jamie McBain and Derek Joslin. Joslin has only played one game so far this year and while he played pretty well, he finds himself sitting out tonight against New Jersey. Then there's McBain, the player who will likely garner a bigger return. McBain has been very inconsistent this year and it would be nice to get something in return for him, but is trading him now really the correct move?

We'll look at both sides of the coin after the jump