Some of the most frustrating losses come when you outplay an opponent for most of the game. That's what happened last night in Ottawa with the Canes controlling most of last night's game against the Senators. Unfortunately, the team dug themselves into a hole early with a defensive breakdown that led to a goal by Jason Spezza and had to play from behind for most of the game. Even with the assistance of 8 powerplays and 9 scoring chances generated with the man advantage, they ended up taking home their third straight loss. This isn't the best game to judge the powerplay on because while they did generate nine chances, the Canes spent nearly 1/4 of the game 5-on-4 and only scored once. Ottawa's goalie Craig Anderson deserves a lot of credit for his 34 save performance but the team was getting basically one chance per two minute powerplay. Ottawa was able to score on their first powerplay and on the tail-end of their third, so that didn't help either.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Carolina Hurricanes (8-12-4) at Ottawa Senators (10-10-4)
Scotiabank Place 5 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, Sportsnet Ottawa

What was once a blue line that was rich in depth and talent has begun to dwindle down as Jay Harrison has joined the list of injured defensemen right as Joni Pitkanen re-joined the lineup. At the very least we can hope for the powerplay to get a spark as one of their top performers is back but if you take a look at the "November Powerplay Woes" post I just made, you'll see that Harrison was one of the team's more consistent players with the man advantage. We just can't win, can we? I'm just happy to have Pitkanen back in the lineup as this powerplay needs all the help it can get.

Tonight we face an Ottawa Senators team that's coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins Friday night and have been the opposite of what most people expected from them this year. You would think a team that is full of rookies and backstopped by Craig Anderson would be terrible possession-wise and buoyed by a strong save percentage but it's the other way around for the Sens. Although, the fact that he's playing behind a young, inexperienced defense probably isn't helping. Ottawa's goaltending usually tends to struggle as they've been through 11 goalies since the lockout and they have a cumulative save percentage of .905. They've also made a few mistakes when it comes to overpaying for goalies but that's another issue for another day.

Lines, defense pairings & more after the jump

Back in October, I defended the Hurricanes powerplay because while they were not scoring, they were at least getting chances on net and were in the top 10 in the league when it came to generating shots 5-on-4. When this is the case, the dice eventually start to roll in their favor and the goals come with it. I figured this would be the case with the Canes but for whatever reason, their powerplay has fallen off a cliff in November in terms of creating chances. In the last month, they are generating less than one chance per 2 minutes on the powerplay and have scored only six goals. The strange thing is that they are still a borderline top-10 team in getting shots on net when playing 5-on-4, but scoring chances are more important than shots for creating goals and the Canes just aren't creating enough chances on the powerplay. To make things worse, they are letting the opposing team get far too many shorthanded chances too.

After the jump, we'll look at some of the gruesome details.

This is coming a few days late because of Thanksgiving throwing off my schedule but I wanted to get the chances posted for this game and I have a few things I want to discuss, too.

There are some who say that the two goal lead is the most dangerous in hockey because it's when teams begin to settle back and play conservative instead of building on a lead. That's what happened to the Hurricanes on Wednesday night. They scored less than 40 seconds into the game on an innocent looking shot from Jiri Tlusty from way past the face-off circle and continued to feed off that lucky bounce by capitalizing on the first scoring chance of the game with a goal by Anthony Stewart (which came six minutes into the game). After that, the Canes did next to nothing to generate pressure in the offenisve zone but it seemed like they would make it out alive because Montreal looked very off that night and couldn't forecheck for most of the first period. Then everything went wrong. The powerplay was lifeless and gave up a shorthanded goal, Montreal tied the game on a tipped-in point shot and Carolina could only seem to create chances in the 3rd period when the game was 3-3. Carolina went on to lose in a shootout for the second time this year and only take home one point in the standings in this game despite a strong showing in overtime. You could say that Carolina didn't deserve the two points but Montreal didn't exactly put together a good showing either.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

One of the reasons why I decided to join the scoring chance project is to catch some things that I may have not seen on the ice. For instance, a player might be labeled as the goat because he failed to tie up a forward in front of the net and it led to the game-winning goal for the opposing team. He may also receive some flack for having the game-tying goal on his stick with less than a minute left and then blowing it by completely missing an open net. Yep, that player should have a seat reserved for him in the press box next game solely because of that. Let's forget the fact that he played more even strength minutes than any other defenseman, was on-ice for more of Carolina's chances and played a solid game overall aside from those two horrible mistakes. The blue-liner who I am referring to is obviously Tomas Kaberle and I know that everyone wants his head now. Going by just the highlights, he had a terrible game and looked awful on that Andrew Ladd goal but to call him the goat of this game is just silly.

Let's forget the fact that the Hurricanes had only 11 total chances at even strength, only ONE in the first period, failed to establish any kind of forecheck and had a terrible offensive performance for most of this game. Oh, and the powerplay stunk yet again which revolves around Kaberle but if you're going to blame him for that you have to blame Eric Staal, Derek Joslin, Jamie McBain, Tuomo Ruutu, Jeff Skinner and almost everyone else who had significant powerplay time.

What I'm trying to say here is that picking one player as the scapegoat is generally stupid. Yes, it's fun to blame one player for all the team's problems but in a loss like this, it's usually the entire team that is struggling. That wasn't completely the case tonight as the Canes had their standouts but for the most part, there wasn't much to be happy about.

Scoring chances and more after the jump

Winnipeg Jets (9-9-4) at Carolina Hurricanes (8-11-3)
RBC Center 7 p.m.
TV: FS Carolinas, TSN Jets

The Canes are 2-1-1 in the past week and have looked considerably better after that 4-0 whitewashing they took at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens. I've noticed that the team has been playing a lot better in the defensive zone and my thoughts were confirmed with this article from Chip Alexander which explains how Paul Maurice has implimented a more defensive system. Instead of defensemen jumping into the play, you'll see more of them laying back and guarding the point. You'll also see the team putting more emphasis on a dump & chase style game where there is more emphasis on speed and less on manuvering through the neutral & offensive zone. The Canes are the fourth worst team in the league in shots allowed at even strength so I'm all for tigtening things up right now, especially with the lack of horsepower in the top-six. However, the negative effect of this system is there isn't much offensive pressure and the Canes are a bottom-five team in terms of shots for, as well. My guess is that Maurice recognizes the lack of talent up front and realizes that the team is going to have to do a better job at preventing goals if we can't score. Similar to the system Jacques Martin runs under the Montreal Canadiens.

Speaking of the Canadiens, the game against them on Wednesday showed some of the flaws with this system. The team had the puck in the Montreal zone countless times but failed to generate scoring chances because it looked like no one had idea had to do with the puck. Also, the team employed a defensive shell when they took a 2-0 lead and didn't do much to create offense and it eventually cost them the lead. This is one thing I hate about this kind of system and it's something I hope the team can fix. They take on another team with not a lot of offensive firepower in the Winnipeg Jets tonight.

Montreal Canadiens (9-9-3) at Carolina Hurricanes (8-11-3)
RBC Center, 7 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, RDS

The Canes are looking to get retribution out of the way early as they take on the Montreal Canadiens in a rematch of last week's 4-0 beatdown where Carolina alledgedly hit "rock bottom." Some were saying that would be Paul Maurice's final game behind the Hurricanes bench after GM Jim Rutherford mentioned that changes would be made. All that happened was Justin Faulk being recalled and Zac Dalpe going back to Charlotte but it's worth noting that the Canes have been playing better since that atrocity last Wednesday and have gone 2-1-0 in their last three games. Very small sample but it's a step in the right direction. What's encouraging is that they outplayed their opponent in two straight games and managed to beat the Flyers due to a strong performance from the powerplay, which has been really hard to come by this year. The question is can the Hurricanes continue this pace in tonight's game against the Canadiens? If they want to make up more ground in the Eastern Conference then they need to.

Lines, analysis & game notes after the jump

Yesterday afternoon, the Nashville Predators placed winger Niclas Bergfors on waivers. The former first round pick has spent the last three seasons with four different teams and has only two points in 11 games this season. Now, I know what you all are thinking right now. Why in the world would Carolina want someone with such atrocious stats? It should be worth noting that he was apparently in the doghouse with Barry Trotz in Nashville and was scratched for a few games and when he did play he was getting fourth line minutes.

Bergfors' point total over the last two seasons is underwhelming but he has posted very strong underlying numbers in those years. Last season, he scored 12 goals and 36 points in 72 games, but he was one of Atlanta's (where he spent most of the season) better forwards when it came to driving possession. Atlanta was not a strong possession team last year but Bergfors was able to at least get the puck into the opponent's zone and get shots on net on a consistent basis during his time there. Carolina is in a similar boat now as they have not been a great possession team either (team Fenwick w/ score tied is only 47.39%, third worst in the Eastern Conference), so having a player like this on the team has a lot of benefit. The team is also struggling to score at even strength and is very thin on the wings, so I have to believe that adding Bergfors can't hurt at all. He is also signed to only a one-year deal at $575k which means that Carolina would not be risking much if they do claim him.

Bergfors also scored 21 goals only two seasons ago when he spent time with the Devils and Thrashers. Therein lies this question. If he is so talented then why has he been traded twice in the last three years and waived by one of the worst possession teams in the league? Bergfors is noted for being "lazy" and "refusing to play defense" by a lot of people which could by why Trotz was not giving him a lot of ice time in Nashville. There could also be some other issues with him seeing how the Florida Panthers didn't even send a qualifying offer his way this summer when he was a restricted free agent.

I personally do not care about those problems because Carolina has plenty of defensively responsible forwards (Staal, Sutter, Dwyer, LaRose) and could really use a winger that can create chances and get shots on net on a regular basis. Bergfors is someone who can do just that and I see him as an upgrade over Anthony Stewart, who who may have three goals but has done next to nothing to create offense otherwise, to potentially play on the first line.

The one major thing standing in the way of me saying that we should claim Bergfors is that I think he will just end up like he did in Nashville. His possession numbers have been very bad this year but even if he does play well here, there's a good chance he could end up like Zach Boychuk and Zac Dalpe where he's pasted to the fourth line and playing only 3-7 minutes per game. That isn't going to do a lot of good for the team. Sure, it would be nice to have him on the first line but with the way Maurice has been distributing ice time, it doesn't look like that will happen. I still think it could be a good low-risk move for the Canes if they do claim Bergfors. If he gets a shot on the first line and works out, then it's a steal. If he flops or can't seem to get above the fourth line, then the Canes didn't lose anything from this experiment.

The "Mo Must Go" campaign seems to have hit a new high this season with the way the Hurricanes have been playing for the past month or so. I've heard every cliche and narrative tossed around during this time.

"Maurice has lost the team."
"The players aren't buying into his philosophy."
"The players have given up on him."
"It's time for a change."

While I haven't agreed with some of Maurice's decisions, I don't see what firing him at this point will accomplish. There are situations where I think a coaching change should be in order the usual case is when you have a very talented team that's underperforming. Carolina has plenty of talent but the only top-end players are Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner and maybe Joni Pitkanen. This team didn't exactly have great underlying numbers last year and most of their success was due to Cam Ward's great play. To make things worse, the team got a little weaker up front by subtracting Erik Cole so Ward's play was going to play a big factor into how the team would perform this year. Carolina is still struggling to score and prevent shots at even strength and Ward's save percentage is barely above .900 so that should tell you how things are going.

Is it Maurice's fault that Ward's play has regressed this year? No, but this doesn't mean that Ward is the reason the Canes are where they are in the standings. In a perfect world, the Canes wouldn't have to rely on Ward to steal so many games but they don't appear to have the horses up front to do that. The team's best scoring line consists of three natural centers and the only depth that was added at the wings over the off-season was Anthony Stewart and Alexei Ponikarovsky. I said that Poni could be a reasonable replacement for Cole but that obviously has not been the case at all. The defense corps has not changed that much either aside from the addition of Tomas Kaberle, who isn't going to help you much with shot suppression, and the emergence of Tim Gleason/Bryan Allen as a decent shutdown pair but the fact remains that this team still gives up a ton of shots nightly. Maurice doesn't control the make-up of this team but it is up to him to make the most out of it. I believe he and Dave Lewis have done that with the defense but the forwards are a work in progress. In fact, I would say that the Canes team as a whole are a work in progress and they aren't underachieving because of bad coaching. Their struggles are due to a lack of talent up front.

One other argument I've heard for Maurice's dismissal is that he isn't he right coach for this team. The Canes are rebuilding in a sense and have some organizational depth, but Maurice has barely been playing them at all. Maurice typically only rolls three lines with the fourth line getting less than 10 minutes per game and it's led some people to believe that Maurice can't work with younger players and the team would be betters suited with a coach like Jeff Daniels from Charlotte. I like to call this the "Andy Murray argument." This would be true except for one detail. Jeff Skinner was given top six minutes right off the bat in Carolina and it hasn't changed one bit. The same goes for Justin Faulk playing top-four minutes in nearly every game he's played for the Hurricanes this year. Granted, Skinner and Faulk have higher ceilings and have proven more in the NHL than Boychuk and Dalpe but you could argue that neither of those two have been given much of a chance here. That said, this isn't something that Maurice should be fired over. The team is rebuilding but it's not a full-out youth movement like in Edmonton and Ottawa, so I don't think that Maurice needs to be fired mid-season over not giving some younger players enough ice-time. 

Then there's the whole "the coach has lost the locker room" narrative which I will continue to believe is a fallacy and a lazy way of explaining how team isn't that good or they are just unlucky. It's mostly the former in Carolina's case, but they've seen some variable stats not swing their way this season. There's a lot of times where you'll have a team that is playing really well but the team doesn't win games because of poor goaltending or having their best goal-scorers go through incredible bouts of back luck. It's happened with an assistant coach in Montreal this year and it nearly cost Bruce Boudreau his job in Washington last season, but their GM kept a cooler head.

When Peter Laviolette was fired in 2008, the Canes were actually playing well territorially but sitting with a record that was near .500 because of some bad goaltending (.895 save %) among other things. Laviolette was then fired and Paul Maurice takes over where he only goes 12-10-3 for the next 25 games. The Canes were playing at about the same level during that time and were getting better goaltending. A lot of the wings came during the Canes second half surge where they won nine games in a row towards the end of March which was enough for them to solidify a playoff spot and you know how the rest of the story goes from there. What's interesting is that Carolina's territorial play didn't improve that much under Maurice for the rest of the 08-09 season but their save percentage improved to .928 which obviously had a big factor in the Canes winning more games in the second half. They were outshooting opponents more regularly that year and the wins starting to come once their goaltending turned around. I know some players had issues with Lavi, but it is pretty fascinating when you look at it this way.

Gabe from Arctic Ice Hockey recently did a study to see how much firing a coach impacts the team's Fenwick percentage and it showed that the improvement was very minimal (worth about half a win) so if a team was playing bad and fired their coach, not much would come of it. That's sort of the boat Carolina is in right now. They have one of the worst possession rates in the Eastern Conference and it's mostly due to a lack of talent. If Maurice were to be axed, it wouldn't change much. I would rather wait out the season to make a decision on the coaching position because we'll have a better idea of what the team wants to do then and there will be more names available.

The most recent week, there's been a lot of negativity surrounding the Carolina Hurricanes with the Canes going 1-3-0 and putting on one of their worst performances of the year against the Montreal Canadiens last Wednesday. They were also outscored 12-6 and shutout in two straight games which obviously put quite a draining on the fanbase. Believe it or not, the Canes actually had a strong Fenwick percentage of 56.1% with the score tied and the only truly awful performance they had was against Montreal. They outchanced both Buffalo and Toronto and were even with the Flyers when playing five-on-five. At even strength, Carolina was 55.3% in terms of scoring chances and I think it's a sign of good things to come after the brutal start this team got off to. A weak powerplay (one goa and 13 chancesl in 18 attempts) and sub-par goaltending (.908 EV save percentage) are still keeping this team down, but they can improve in the coming weeks if they keep outshooting opponents like they did this past week, minus the Habs game.