I could pull out all of the cliches in the world to describe yesterday's 3-2 overtime loss against the Florida Panthers.

"Carolina didn't put together a full sixty minutes."

"Carolina won in every category but the scoreboard."

"One or two silly mistakes cost them the game."

"Florida played to win the game while Carolina played not to lose."

All of those would more or less describe the game against Florida pretty accurately and I feel that the same thing happened in almost every game Carolina has lost in overtime this year. That's not to say the Canes played a bad game because they didn't and they actually had the upper-hand on Florida for a little over 40 minutes. Everything after the second period, though? Awful. The Panthers outshot Carolina 13-3 in the third period and overtime and could only muster up one scoring chance. This came after a strong second period where they were able to take a 2-1 lead but they showed little effort to build on that lead, took stupid penalties and couldn't establish any kind of forecheck.

The bright side? The Canes have earned points in three consecutive games and I suppose you can say that they've earned them.

Scoring chances & more after the jump.

Carolina Hurricanes (10-18-5) at Florida Panthers (17-9-6)
5 p.m., Bank Atlantic Center
TV: FS-Florida

One of the most important things to do during the season is win games in your division, the Hurricanes have only one victory in the Southeast this year. On top of that, they have only gained three points in games against Southeast teams and that's partially the reason why they are in as low in the standings as they are now. Today is a great day to turn things around, though as they take on the suprise team of the Southeast, the Florida Panthers. How long this success lasts is up for debate but it's looking highly likely that the Cats are on pace to make their first playoff apperance in over a decade. However, they have been on the receiving end of a lot of luck this year and that's played a role in their success.

Things like luck and regression are difficult to accept at first because it doesn't make the best story but the truth is that they both play a big role in hockey and can explain hot and cold streaks going on. Goalies are usually the biggest victim of good or bad luck and we've seen a recent example in Cam Ward who has played well below his abilities this year. We know that a sub-.900 save percentage is unsustainable for him and we've already seen him look like his usual self in the last two games, so there's some regression going on right now. Eric Staal was also a victim of bad luck for the first two months of the season and now he's got 8 points in his last 7 games.

Some of the beneficiaries of great puck luck have been Florida goaltender Jose Theodore (.933 EV sv%) and their entire first line of Stephen Weiss, Kris Versteeg and Tomas Fleischmann (all three have on-ice shooting percentages of 11%+). That isn't too say that these players are "bad" but they certainly aren't as good as they have been. Regression might be what comes back to hurt this Florida team because the strong goaltending has played a big role in their success and their first line has accounted for 48% of their goals. On top of that, Versteeg is the only player on their first line that appears to be driving possession well so when their shooting percentages regress, so does most of their scoring. For the Hurricanes, bad luck has played a role in their struggles but regression going to the mean isn't going to save them because there's a lot more going wrong with this team...but they are at least a win better than they are now. It doesn't sound like much at first, but it's true.

Let's see how the percentages play against Florida tonight.

Lines, analysis & more after the jump

We're almost at the end of 2011 and the Hurricanes have only won 10 games, so I think it's safe to say that the post-season is highly unlikely at this point. What does this mean for the team now? I've heard "Fail for Nail" thrown around a bunch of times but is tanking for a high draft pick going to solve all of our problems? Yes, it has worked for Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington and a few others but the risks that come with it might not be worth the reward. Just ask Islanders and Thrashers fans.

Now, I understand the rationale for getting a high draft pick this year because the team is going absolutely nowhere this season and getting another Jeff Skinner-type prospect in the system would help this team a lot in the long-run. It's not as if the Canes are completely bare in terms of prospects either as GM Jim Rutherford has done a great job at acquiring picks and talent the last few years but is it enough to have this organization set for the future? We don't know that because draft picks are not always a sure thing but with the team having issues scoring and producing offense, it might be time to evaluate some of the talent we have in the organization.

Is it going to turn things around this season? Not likely, but one step to rebuilding is getting the younger players more experience with the big club and we're beginning to see some progress with that in Drayson Bowman most recent call-up.

More after the jump.

I was just as shocked as anyone to see that the Jamie McBain-Tim Gleason defense pairing was kept together in Thursday night's game against the Canucks because of how poorly those two played as a unit until then. While they had a respectable outing that game, I thought Kirk Muller would have decided to reunite Bryan Allen and Tim Gleason since they were going up against a strong offensive team and McBain has struggled in a shutdown role thus far. That's when I began to thought to myself the negatives of the Allen-Gleason defense pairing. Both guys are studs in their own zone and the best defensemen on the team in terms of preventing chances against but neither are that good of puck movers.

There is a lot of pressure put on defensemen to get the puck out of their own zone with break-out passes that you need to have a puck-moving defenseman on almost any pairing. One of McBain's strengths is being able to move the puck well and with Joni Pitkanen on the shelf indefinitely, that makes him an attractable option for the top pairing. Allen and Gleason, on the other hand, are not known for their puck-moving skills but are both so bad that they can't play on the top pairing?

This is where looking at zone entries and exits will come in handy. Derek Zona of Copper and Blue looked at this for the Oilers and the folks at Broad Street Hockey have been tracking zone entries for the Flyers all season. The latter part is what we're the most concerned with here because having a defenseman that can get the puck out of the zone is crucial for establishing any kind of offense. To compare McBain and Allen's puck moving skills, I watched each of their shifts from the last game they played on a pairing with Gleason (Thursday vs. Canucks for McBain and Nov. 26th vs. Florida for Allen), recorded what happened each time they touched the puck in the defensive zone and logged how they advanced the puck. Did they make an outlet pass to a forward in the neutral zone, rely one of the forwards to exit the zone, make a big slap pass around the boards and hope for the best or do it the old fashioned way and exit the zone themselves?

Find out the answer after the jump

All season long, the one thing that's been frustrating Canes fans the most (myself included) is how some of the team's best prospects were being restricted to fourth line minutes but it appears that is about to change under Kirk Muller. With Jeff Skinner out, that leaves a huge hole to fill in the top-nine but it also creates an opportunity for one of the younger players to assume a bigger role and they might be able to stick around in Raleigh if they make the most of their playing time. 2008's third round pick Drayson Bowman got his chance last night and he certainly took advantage of it. Scored two goals and was one of the team's most effective offensive players in route to a 4-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks. 

That's not the only thing we can talk about in this game, though. There was the team's powerplay having a very successful night, Cam Ward's terrific play and the second line coming to life. We'll get into all of that after the jump.

Vancouver Canucks (18-10-2) at Carolina Hurricanes (9-18-5)
7:00 p.m., RBC Center
TV: FS-Carolinas, Sportsnet-Vancouver

It's unknown that all general managers look at all of these advanced stats that are gaining popularity on the Internet, but I suspect that Mike Gillis of the Vancouver Canucks might be one of them. He's made some very good trades over the past year where the Canucks acquired a low-PDO player for not much of a cost. The most recent one being the trade for David Booth in exchange for Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson. Booth is a very talented player who hasn't been getting any luck the last two seasons with Florida (PDO is 934 this year), and Gillis was able to take advantage of Dale Tallon "selling low" on him and was able to snag a top-six forward for two expiring contracts.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more GM's do something similar and the Hurricanes are in a position where another team can take advantage of them via trade or vice versa. With the chances of a playoff birth being all but done, it's all about rebuilding now and there's a few under and over acheiving players who may be dealt this year. Will Jim Rutherford be able to get more or less value for the players he trades this year? We'll see. He was able to turn Sergei Samsonov's expiring contract into Bryan Allen, who has been the team's best defenseman last year so I have faith.

This is related because Carolina's game tonight is against Gillis' Canucks and it has the potential to be very ugly for us. I do have some faith because Carolina has played some of their better games this year against good teams. They do own victories over Chicago, Pittsburgh and Boston so I wouldn't get too pessimistic. The absence of our leading goal scorer and one of our best defenseman will make things very difficult, though.

Lines, analysis & more after the jump

The Carolina Hurricanes were hit hard with injuries the past week as it was announced last night that both Joni Pitkanen and Jeff Skinner will be out indefinitely after sustaining concussions. I don't even need to tell you how critical of a loss Jeff Skinner is, so I'll save the statistical mumbo jumbo for him. However, I do want to touch on how the injury to Joni Pitkanen will effect the defense. He's missed about 10 games already and has been such a key piece to the defense that things tend to get shaken up a lot during that time. That's certainly been the case this season as the Canes have gone through about 30 different defense combinations this year and the only two consistent pairings were Pitkanen/McBain and Allen/Gleason. Tomas Kaberle and Jay Harrison was the only other defense pairing that had a long tenure and that's obviously defunct now. The constant mix-and-matching on the blue-line has been going on all season but it always seems to increase a ton whenever Pitkanen is out of the lineup. He always logs a ton of minutes and is playing TOUGH situations this year, so that's understandable. After the jump, we'll take a look at how Carolina's defense pairings have played this year and some possible solutions as to what the team can do while #25 is on the IR.

Before his terrific performance against the Leafs last night, Cam Ward was one of the main frustrations with this Hurricanes team as he's clearly played below his standards this year. Ward has been Carolina's back-stop ever since he took them to the Cup in 2005-06 and has been performing at a high level for the past three years (EV Sv% <.920 during that time). This year, however, he's taken a sharp turn downward with his even strength and overall save percentages being way below the league average. He's beginning to show frustrations with both his play and, to some extent, the team around him. So who is to blame for Ward's struggles? Is the defense in front of him making his job harder or is the problem with Ward centered around himself? We'll explore this after the jump.

One of the ongoing stories for this season is how the Hurricanes goaltending, specifically Cam Ward, has not been nearly good enough this season. Going into tonight, Ward had a sub-.900 save percentage, an even strength save percentage that's way below the league average and only one quality outing in his last seven games. Last season, he was the main reason why this team was so close to making the playoffs and this year he's been a part of the numerous problems with this team. 

Tonight's game against Toronto was a different story as he put together his best performance in over a month with 36 saves on 38 shots in a game which the Canes had no business being in. He may have taken the 2-1 overtime loss on a leaky goal, but if it wasn't for him, Carolina wouldn't have even gotten a point tonight. The Canes created only five total chances at even strength and were outplayed by the Leafs from the opening whistle but Ward was able to stand on his head and look more like the goaltender we're used to seeing. He was at his best while the rest of the team was not.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Carolina Hurricanes (9-18-4) at Toronto Maple Leafs (15-11-3)
7:00 p.m., Air Canada Centre
TV: FS-Carolinas, SportsNet-Ontario

One phrase people love to throw around when things get tough is "at least it can't get any worse." Well, for the Carolina Hurricanes it can. We have one of the worst records in the NHL, injuries all over our defense, an ineffective powerplay and most of our losses have been by at least three goals. It was after the Winnipeg game that I said "Hey, at least things can't get worse." What happens after that? Jeff Skinner misses another with what is being described as an "undisclosed injury" and I'm hearing that it could be a concussion. So no, I don't want to hear that "things can't get worse" because when you have that mindset, they do get worse. Or maybe I'm just superstitious and want this Canada road trip to end? Probably that. Anyway, the good news is that this is the last game of the road trip and the Canes are taking on a team they beat a month ago, the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Lines, analysis & more after the jump