In what has been a mainly forgettable year for the Hurricanes, yesterday's 5-2 win over the Lightning was a nice change of pace. They built on an early lead, chased a goalie killed penalties and got a dominant effort from their first line. Tuomo Ruutu said during the intermission that they played their best first period all season and it's hard to argue that since they scored four goals, which I am pretty sure hasn't happened this year. The whole game was one of the Canes strongest efforts all season and it was great to see them get rewarded with a win, their first W to be decided by more than two goals all season. Like I said, it was a refreshing change of pace and hopefully we'll have more decisive wins like this in the next few months.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Carolina Hurricanes (14-23-7) at Tampa Bay Lightning (17-20-4)
Tampa Bay Times Forum, 7:30 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, Sun Sports

If you can believe it, the Hurricanes have yet another player on the shelf with Jaro Spacek possibly being out for tonight's game after being hit by a puck in Tuesday's game against the Flyers. This means that another lineup change as been made with Derek Joslin being recalled from his conditioning stint in Charlotte to fill in for Spacek if needed. When it rains, it pours. I know that teams keep track of the amount of "man games" they have lost in a year but something I want to see is what the record is for the amount of consecutive lineup changes made in a season. The Hurricanes appear to be aiming for the record. The good news here is that Joslin has played with the team before and will probably be used in a sheltered third pairing role, so his play shouldn't be too much of a concern unless another injury happens. *knock on wood*

One other thing that is hard to believe is that a win against Tampa Bay tonight would put the Canes only one game out of fourth in the division. Although, that isn't too surprising when you look at how much the Bolts have fallen off in every category this year but they haven't been as horrible lately (4-4-2 in their last 10) and did beat us 5-2 on New Year's Eve so this won't be an easy game for Carolina. I am sure the Canes are sick and tired of being at the bottom of the division, so it would be great to see them win this game and start to climb out of the cellar.

Lines & more after the jump

In the wake of the article I posted about Chad LaRose and Jerome Samson's performance last night, there's been some debate about how what LaRose does can be easily replaced. First, we need to talk about what exactly a "replaceable player" is. In baseball and hockey, statisticians throw around the word "replacement level player" to describe a player who can be easily replaced by a call-up from the minors. Fourth liners and back-up goalies are the most common example of this. A player who is just replaceable is very different than one who is "replacement level." It basically means that his role can be played by someone else for less money and losing him would not set the team back that much. The new player filling in for him could be better or worse. Is LaRose "replaceable" or "replacement level." Samson's performance is making some people lean towards the latter but that isn't completely true.

Yes, Samson made not having LaRose in the lineup virturally noticeable last night, but it was just one game and Samson was by far Carolina's best forward last night. That won't be the case with every game but if Samson can play like that on a consistent basis, then we can start talking about shipping out players to make room for him. You could argue that he may not get another chance but he's earned himself a few more NHL games after last night, in my opinion. Still, to say that everything LaRose does can be replaced by an AHL call-up isn't neccesarily true when you look into everything he's been doing this year. LaRose ranks third in quality of competition faced among forwards, starts only 42.2% of his draws in the offensive zone and has been contributing on both the powerplay and the penalty kill. Add in his 11 goals and 21 points and I don't think you can call him a replacement level player who can be subbed out of the lineup by anyone without a problem. However, LaRose IS replaceable but that does not mean he is a bad player. 

He does a lot of good things for the team and would be a productive third liner just about everywhere he goes. Third liners can be found just about anywhere for a low cost, though. There are some who are better than others but for the most part, production from third liners can be replaced even if it doesn't happen immediately. A good example of a replaceable third liner is former Tampa Bay Lightning heavy-lifter Sean Bergenheim. He was one of Tampa Bay's best possession forwards despite constantly being thrown out in the defensive zone by coach Guy Boucher. He also killed penalties and modestly chipped in on offense (never scored more than 30 points in a season). He cashed in on a strong playoff performance and is now a Florida Panther and Tampa Bay signed Tom Pyatt and Ryan Shannon to replace him, both of whom are making less than $1 mil. this season. These three aren't nearly as good as Bergenheim but they both play a similar role and cost a lot less. Steve Yzerman was smart to let Bergenheim walk because while it is unpopular to let a fan-favorite go, Bergenheim's role in Tampa Bay could be done for a lot less than the $2.75 mil. he is making in Florida right now.

LaRose is signed to a cheap contract for the next few years and is giving the Canes a lot for the $1.9 they are paying him right now. He is also on pace to have a career year offensively but according to the VUKOTA projection I made for him, there's a good chance that this season is an aberration if he gets above 35 points. What I am trying to say here is that I would not rule out LaRose's name when if comes to players that might be traded. Make no mistake about it, LaRose has been one of the Hurricanes better players this season but what he does can be replaced and his value now could be at an all-time high.

Does this mean he will be traded? No, but his name could be on the block since there might be a lot of teams looking for a quality third liner signed a cheap contract. He's been a big part of the Canes this year but he can be replaced but remember, that isn't a knock against him. Hell, I can think of only three or four players on this team right now that aren't replaceable and I would likely trade LaRose before someone like Tuomo Ruutu, who might be on the block, as well.

My question to you is what players on the Canes do you see as replaceable and which ones are at "replacement level?"

Last night's 2-1 loss to the Flyers had a lot of positives that Carolina could take home and a game where they could have earned at least a point but things didn't quite work out that way. I know a lot of recaps will say that Flyers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky stole this game for them and while it might look that way on paper, the Flyers defense put forth a strong defensive effort. They kept most of the Hurricanes 36 shots on goal to the outside and did a very good job at protecting the area in front of the net. The Canes may have barely outshot the Flyers, but they trailed in scoring chances 13-11 at even strength and most of their scoring chances came in short rushes. Carolina definitely had the puck in the Philly zone a lot of times, they just didn't do much with it after that. 

Like I said, there are a lot of good things you can say about how the Canes played tonight despite the loss. Jerome Samson had a terrific game in his season debut, Justin Faulk had a relatively good game and we saw the reunited Bryan Allen/Tim Gleason defense pairing shutdown the Flyers top line. The Canes had the advantage when it came to territorial play but not scoring chances and that was one of the reasons why they lost this game. Maybe this is proof of shot quality?

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Philadelphia Flyers (24-12-4) at Carolina Hurricanes (14-22-7)
RBC Center, 7 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, CSN-Philadelphia

The Hurricanes have made yet another lineup change as it is Chad LaRose who is injured this time and replacing him will be AHL All-Star forward Jerome Samson. It is odd that I wrote the article about LaRose's value to this team yesterday because that's when he injured himself in practice and will miss tonight's game with an "upper-body injury." He's gone through a bit of a rough patch in recent games but the Canes are going ot miss a lot without him on the ice tonight. He is one of their best forwards at creating scoring chances and the play is usually north with him on the ice. He has also taken a lot of tough draws and played against top competition on the first and third lines. That's a big hole to fill even if he isn't your ideal first liner, but it is worth noting that the Canes controlled 50.8% of the even strength scoring chances when Samson was on the ice last year so it's not like we've got a scrub up here.

Samson has been a top-scorer at the AHL level for years now but none of that has translated to the NHL in the 30 games he has played. He has yet to score a goal in the NHL but despite that, coach Kirk Muller is giving him a chance to succeed right off the bat as Bowman will be playing on a line with Jussi Jokinen and Alexei Ponikarovsky tonight. The Canes have got a little more balance in their forward corps with Jokinen moving back to the second line and they will need all the balance they can get tonight as they take on the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. It will be the final meeting of the season between these two teams and the Canes are hoping to even the season series.

Lines & more after the jump

Something troubling me about the Canes modest success under Kirk Muller was the amount of one goal games they were winning. As it turns out, this wasn't as big of a worry as I thought because the Canes are currently 6-6-7 in games decided by a goal and have accumulated only 42.9% of their points that from them. That isn't a very high or low number compared to other teams and the Canes are out of the race which makes this is a moot point. However, it did get me thinking about whether or not winning close games is a predictor of long term of success.

The Canes team that won the cup in 2005-06 won 28 of their games by only one goal, which was over half of their wins (53.8% if you want to get specific) and the 9th most in the league that season. It wasn't as extreme as the Columbus Blue Jackets of that year who had 68.8% of their wins come in close games but still a pretty high number. What about since the lockout? Did other teams who had a lot of wins in close games go on to have success in the playoffs? Can we use this information to predict anything this season?

We'll explore this after the jump

There seems to be a conflict within the fanbase about Chad LaRose and how he has been used as a top-six winger this season. I've heard a ton of praise and criticism thrown his way. Some people have said that this will be his break-out year and that he's finally showing that he can be a consistent 20-goal scorer. Others have said that he belongs on the fourth line, shouldn't be playing in the top-six and hurts the team more than he helps.

LaRose is on-pace to score 20 goals this year and it's likely that he'll set a personal high in points, but to say that he can consistently be a top-six winger is a stretch. He is almost 30 years old and hasn't scored more than 31 points in his career so that usually means what we're seeing right now is the best that we're going to get. However, to say that he is part of the problem with the Canes is also false because while LaRose is not a top-six forward, he does do a lot of good things for the Canes and has been one of their better players this season. What else do I have to say about #59? Find out after the jump, because there's a lot.

Carolina Hurricanes (14-21-7) at Nashville Predators (21-15-4)
Bridgestone Arena, 8 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas

Yet another roster move was made earlier today as winger Drayson Bowman was sent back to Charlotte to make room for returning RW Patrick Dwyer. Do I agree with this move? Absolutely not, because Bowman was doing just about everything right ever since being recalled by Carolina. 52% of the even strength scoring chances went in the Canes favor when Bowman was on the ice and having a presence like that is important when you're a team that's starved for offense like Carolina is right now. That said, the Canes have three natural centers playing on the first line now and with only so many others on the roster, someone had to be sent down and that guy was Bowman. Bowman is also one of the few players who are waiver exempt, so that makes the decision to send him down make more sense. I have a feeling that we'll be seeing him back in Raleigh some time this year, though. Maybe he'll earn himself a spot in camp to start next year if he keeps it up?

We must move on now and it will be great to have Patrick Dwyer back in the lineup as his defensive presence was missed greatly. Finding a spot for him in the lineup is harder than it seems, though because his usual linemate, Brandon Sutter, is now centering our second line and Dwyer isn't the most threatening second line winger. He was playing on the first line with Staal and has played more than 15 minutes in some games so him playing there is a possibility. I'm just skeptical of how successful it will be. Dwyer-Sutter-LaRose is a fantastic third line and a great defensive unit to put out against other team's top lines but I don't know if they are anything more than that at this point. The return of Jeff Skinner will help this matter a lot, but the Canes are going to need to make due with what they have now and hopefully pick up their second win and two nights as they take on the Nashville Predators.

Lines & more after the jump

The Hurricanes 4-2 win over the Sabers featured a lot of back and-forth action, great goaltending and some pretty spotty defensive play. Put all of that together and you got yourself a pretty exciting hockey game. The Canes had one of their sloppier performances of the year but good special teams, goaltending and a couple of mistakes on Buffalo's end is what helped Carolina win this game. This isn't the type of game I would like to see every night but the Canes managed to come away with the two points and that's what matters the most here.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Buffalo Sabers (18-17-4) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (13-21-7)
RBC Center, 7 p.m.
TV: MSG-Buffalo

I said earlier that you have to take risks to be a successful franchise and head coach Kirk Muller is doing that tonight by putting Tuomo Ruutu and Jussi Jokinen on the first line with Eric Staal. Why is this risky you ask? Because these three are our best offensive players currently in the lineup and if they get shut down, there isn't much behind them and it's going to hurt the team's offense a lot. However, this line has three of Carolina's leaders in scoring chance percentage and present a threat whenever they are on the ice, something the team has lacked all season. Jokinen & Ruutu's line with Jeff Skinner was the closest thing to a big offensive threat we had all season and I guess Muller is tired of these wing experiments with Eric Staal and wants to put him with two proven goal-scoreres instead. Ruutu and Jokinen are the most proven wingers we have right now and have worked with Staal in the past, so this works. 

If you remember Jokinen's 30 goal season, he was attached at the hip to Eric Staal for most of the year so maybe tonight is the night where he finally snaps his goal drought. We just need to hope that this line produces because after them there isn't much. Our second line tonight will probably be our usual third line of Bowman-Sutter-LaRose and while they are a solid unit, none of them are proven top-six commodities so I'm going into tonight with a lot of skepticism.The Sabers defense is banged up right now so that may have influenced Muller to load up the top line.

Lines & more after the jump