Every week during the regular season, I would review the Carolina Hurricanes performance during said week and one of the first things I looked at was how certain players were being used. I did this by utilizing an "OZ QoC Chart" which plotted a player's offensive zone start percentage against his corsi relative to quality of competition number. Players who were used in the toughest situations were found in the upper left part of the graph while players being used in easier situations were in the lower right part of the graph. This was a very helpful tool for my analysis and it was interesting to see how player usage changed throughout the season. 

The creator of OZQOC Charts, Rob Vollman, has been working hard all season to improve these charts and make them more friendly to those new to advanced hockey statistics. One way he did that was renaming them as "Player Usage Charts" and adding a couple other tweaks, as well. The biggest addition are the bubbles which represent a player's corsi relative. A blue bubble indicates a positive corsi relative and a white bubble indicates a negative corsi relative rating. The larger the bubble is, the greater their corsi relative numbers were. This helps us show how effective a player was at pushing the puck forward and creating offense. 

I have used versions of this chart in the past, but the modifications that Vollman has made to them have made them much easier to read and it's much easier to identify certain holes that a team may have. If you are unsure where to start with advanced statistics and are interested in learning about them, Player Usage Charts are a great first step. They are very compatible and aren't too difficult to figure out. The best part of it is that they are available for no cost, all you have to do is download this pdf and spend a good hour or so looking over them. The pdf linked features analysis from Vollman and dozens of other hockey bloggers, including myself, who interpret the charts for their respective teams and a lot more. 

After the jump, we're going to take a look at the Hurricanes' chart, go over what I said in the feature and do some further analysis.

One potential unrestricted free agent was taken off the market yesterday when the Colorado Avalanche re-signed winger David Jones to a four-year contract worth $16 mil. This might not look like a big deal at first glance, but has the potential to be a pretty awful contract for the Avalanche. Jones might have two 20-goal seasons under his belt, but a closer look at his numbers suggests that the chances of him sustaining this kind of production are slim.

Over the last three years, Jones has been incredibly lucky when it came to shooting the puck. He wasn't exactly being used in the toughest of situations but was still underwater territorially in most seasons. He was able to score 20+ goals because about 15% or more of the shots he took ended up in the back of the net. In addition to that, the Avs were shooting at a higher rate as a team when he was on the ice during the 2009 & 2010 seasons. Unless Jones can maintain his career shooting percentage of 16.3%, his production is probably going to take a significant drop. This is one of the reasons why I wanted Carolina to stay away from him this off-season and why I think this contract will look awful by this time next year. 

How does this concern Carolina, though? Because they are in the market for a top-line winger and the Avs just signed a guy who is a 2nd liner at best to a deal worth $4 mil. per season. This gives us an idea of what the market will look like in about a month when free agency hits and it does make you a little concerned about how much money Jim Rutherford will need to shell out to acquire a top line winger. Rutherford made a similar decision by signing Tuomo Ruutu to a four year contract worth $750k more per season, so most knew what the market was going to be like this year. The news of the salary cap increasing to $70.3 mil. also means that teams are going to shell out more money than usual for some players, so you'll probably see more deals like this handed out over the next month or so. 

Just how much money does Rutherford need to spend to acquire that top line winger he is looking for, though? That is something I can't answer right now, but I have to think that it is in the ballpark of Jones and Ruutu contracts, likely more. Spending a lot of money for next season isn't a big deal with the cap being so high, but Rutherford can make things much easier on the team long-term by avoiding signing players to 4+ year contracts and offering more money for less years instead. It doesn't seem like anyone on the market this year is going to provide a long-term solution to Carolina, so short-term contracts appear to be the way to go. He's going to be overpaying no matter what, but shortening the term of the contract minimizes the overall risk of it. 

No matter what Rutherford does, he has to be smarter than the Avs were with this Jones contract when he looks to fill the void on the top line. Granted, the Avs are in a tougher situation because they are ways away from the cap floor, but no GM should be offering four year contracts to a player whose success is mostly driven by luck. That's not what you should do when you're on a budget or when you're  a rebuilding team. This along with the Cody McLeod contract puts the Avs summer of to a very rough start. Let's hope Rutherford doesn't follow suit.

Without question, one of the top priorities for Carolina this off-season is acquiring a top-six winger, preferably one who can play on the first line with Eric Staal. Jim Rutherford has stated that this is what he plans to do this off-season but a problem he will run into is that the free agent pool this year is very shallow. There will be at least seven teams bidding on one player which means that someone is going to have to overpay to acquire him. his strategy will help a team in the short-term but it could also hurt them a few years down the line when they are still paying big money for a player whose production is declining. This is the same dilemma that most of the teams trying to sign Brad Richards ran into last year. The Rangers knew they could be a contending team as soon as this year, which is why they felt the need to give Richards that big contract. Carolina probably doesn't have the same mindset, so the likelihood of Rutherford handing out a big deal is slim.

However, this doesn't mean that Rutherford isn't going to be aggressive in his search for a top-line winger because he has to take that approach if he wants to land anyone who will make an immediate impact. There might be a chance of the Canes landing a big name free agent, but if don't, who else is out there and how much are they available for? I looked at some of the players that Rutherford could possibly buy low on a couple months ago, but that only covered certain players. After the jump, we'll take a look at all of the potential unrestricted free agents who could possibly play in the top-six for the Hurricanes and determine which ones are the right guys to go after.

The off-season is always a fun time for hockey bloggers. While nothing compares to the excitement of watching your team in the playoffs, bloggers always have a fun time playing armchair GM and speculating what moves their teams should make in the coming months. Carolina has been a hotspot for rumors and scuttlebutt this off-season and it's mostly because Peter Karmanos has given GM Jim Rutherford the green light to spend as much money needed to acquire a top-line player. This has led to a lot of people thinking that Zach Parise will be the main target, which makes sense because he's the best free agent winger available this year. The most intriguing rumor, however, surrounds Pittsburgh Penguins center Jordan Staal and the possibility of Carolina trading for him this off-season.

My personal philosophy is to ignore rumors like this because the likelihood of a big trade actually happening seems slim but this particular one has gotten out of control. You'll see people assuming that Jordan Staal will become a Hurricane by October and that Rutherford needs to make a trade for him or this off-season will be a failure. What I want to know is how likely is it that Rutherford actually trades for Staal and what needs to happen for a deal to get done. In addition to that, how does trading for Staal help the Hurricanes more than acquiring a top-line winger or a defenseman? I will look at all of these factors after the jump.

The Hurricanes sure like to keep the families connected. Not only do they have two Staal's in their organization but three members of the Sutter family tree as well. The one who most fans know about is Brandon Sutter, who plays an important role as the team's third line center, but one who the national media may not know about is his cousin, Brett Sutter. There's a very good reason for that, though. Brett might be vital to the Hurricanes organization as the captian of their AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers but he has yet to make his mark in the NHL and time is running out for him to do so.

Sutter has spent the majority of the last five seasons in the AHL and wasn't much of a scorer there, and that limits what he can do in the NHL. Which is the reason why he is usually regulated to fourth line duty and called up on either an emergency basis or to be a fourth line plug. The most time he played in a game this season was 9 minutes and 35 seconds so that should tell you what kind of role he played when he was called up. The 15 games he played this year was also a career high for him. Now, you can't judge a player on a 15 game sample size but whenever Sutter was in the lineup, he wasn't very effective. He failed to outchance the opposition in every game he played in and this was with fourth line assignments, which is pretty weak competition.

The Hurricanes' fourth line is known for playing the "energy role" and aren't really depended on for scoring or defense. They are mainly expected to play 5-10 minutes a night, hit a few players, work hard and not get destroyed. You can say that Sutter played this role but that doesn't mean that he helped the team. In fact, the Hurricanes were outshot heavily whenever Sutter played and he was on ice for fewer chances than the amount of games he played. There's no doubt that Charlotte will definitely want him to stick around for next year but it doesn't seem like he'll be getting a call-up to Raleigh any time soon.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump.

Last week, I examined draft prospects from the Canadian Hockey League by looking at their point-per-game totals at the junior level to see what players might be overlooked by scouts. I discovered a couple of prospects projected to be drafted outside of the first round that could be very useful pieces to the Hurricanes somewhere down the line. Going by just goals and points alone isn't the best way to evaluate prospects because there are plenty of other ways that a forward can contribute without scoring. Not to mention all the other random factors that occur during a hockey game which can produce misleading results, but I am not able to watch many games from the lower levels and can only judge prospects by what I see. Therefore, I utilize stats, Youtube videos, scouting reports and watch as many games as I can to get the lowdown on prospects. 

Basically, what I am saying is that I am not an expert in this field by any means but I'm going to do my best to breakdown some of the players in this draft and single out ones who I think would make a good fit for the Hurricanes. We have the CHL players covered, now let's move onto the players who were in European Leagues this season. There are a lot of talented forwards coming from across the Atlantic and quite a few of them are going to have their name's called on Day 1 of the draft. Are there any who the Hurricanes might be interested in? Long story short, yes.

A list of these players and some further analysis is coming after the jump.

If I had to name a few players as those who would be "untouchable" on the Hurricanes in regards to a trade, Brandon Sutter would be one of those players. His scoring line isn't the most impressive but he plays one of the most important roles on the team as the third line center. That doesn't sound like much at first glance because every team has a defensive center, but what makes Sutter so important to the Hurricanes is how well he plays this role. Sutter plays some of the toughest minutes in the NHL, regularly being deployed in the defensive zone and matched up against opposing team's top lines.

Sutter along with his linemate Patrick Dwyer take up almost all of the defensive responsibilities among the team's forward corps and this allows players like Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu and Jeff Skinner to play easier minutes, thus helping the team's scoring. In addition to that, Sutter is one of the team's better shot-blockers and has a pretty good set of hands that make him a solid two-way threat that other teams need to be aware of. Most people who get to watch the Hurricanes are aware of Sutter's value and what he brings to the table, but players like him are usually among the most under-appreciated in the league because defensive forward isn't a noteworthy position.

They don't score a lot and their performance isn't shown in most underlying stats either because the ice is tilted so heavily against them, especially for a player like Sutter who plays some of the toughest minutes in the NHL. This is where applying context to one's playing situation would come in handy and Sutter is probably at the top of the list of players who would have their numbers improve if they were adjusted for their starting position, which has been done in the past. We aren't going to do that here, but we are going to look at how Sutter has performed throughout the year but remember to keep his playing situation in mind when you look at the raw data.

A look at those numbers is coming after the jump.

The best thing about the NHL playoffs is that almost anything can truly happen in a seven-game series. When the sample size is that small, there are so many things that can occur. Any goalie can get hot and steal a series for a lesser team, a player or a line can tear it up after a disappointing season or the league's best powerplay can dry up and it will decide the outcome of a series for some teams. This is why the "best team" during the regular season doesn't always win the Cup. The higher seeded team is always at an advantage, yes but a lot of other things need to go right for them if they want to win it all. There are just so many different things that can go right or wrong for any team in a series that it makes most predictions look foolish in the end.

The idea that "anything can happen" has never been more true this post-season as the Stanley Cup Final is between the 6th and 8th seeds from their respected conferences and the eight seed might be the favorite going in. That team would be the Los Angeles Kings, who have made short work of their playoff opponents by defeating all three in just 14 short games. The higher seeded team, the New Jersey Devils, finished fourth in the Atlantic Division in the regular season but here they are in the Finals now. The Devils were perceived to be a weaker team than the Rangers and the Flyers but they managed to get past them in 11 games which was partially due to luck and the Devils being a better team than their seeding indicates. Just like how the Kings are a better team than what most 8 seeds are considered to be.

This is why I'm against making predictions for the most part. I like going into a series knowing that anything can happen and that a huge upset might be just around the corner. It seems that mindset has been in line with this year's playoffs more than any other season in recent memory and the final matchup this year is one that could go in either direction. Therefore, any prediction I make can easily end up being completely different from what I think will happen, but I'm going to make one anyway.

Find out what I have to say about this year's final after the jump.

The word "unnecessary" came to mind when the Hurricanes signed Anthony Stewart to a two-year deal last summer. Stewart was coming off a career season with the Atlanta Thrashers the previous season where he had 14 goals and 39 points in 80 games. Going by that alone, one would think that Stewart had top-six potential and and might succeed in a third line role with the Hurricanes. However, Stewart's scoring line last season was incredibly misleading and I was a lot more skeptical about this signing than others were.

Stewart might have had good counting stats with the Thrashers last year, but his underlying numbers painted a much bleaker picture. Whenever he was on the ice, the Thrashers were getting outshot badly at even strength and that was with him starting 54.5% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Stewart was also never a huge point producer in the AHL and his previous career high in the NHL was 7 points in 59 games. AHL success doesn't always translate to the next level but players who don't produce in the minors generally don't go onto be productive scorers at the NHL. This, along with the fact that 10 of Stewart's 14 goals last year came during the first half of the season, made me think that Stewart's 39-point campaign was an aberration and that he wouldn't be anything more than a fourth liner on the Hurricanes.

This is why I felt that signing him was unnecessary. He isn't good enough defensively to play on a checking line or in a shutdown role and he doesn't have the skill set to play on one of the top two lines either. All the Hurricanes could do was give him 6-10 minutes of soft ice-time per night and hope that he didn't hurt the team. That is exactly how the Hurricanes used him for most of the year and Stewart may have scored nine goals, but a closer look at his numbers show that he probably wouldn't be in the NHL on a good team. A look at those numbers is coming after the jump.

The decision on which player the Carolina Hurricanes should take with the eighth pick in the NHL Draft is anything but unanimous but one thing that can be agreed on is that it should be a forward. The Canes do have a decent future up front with Jeff Skinner and Brandon Sutter already contributing at the NHL level, but their prospect pool is very thin. The team's best forward prospects who aren't currently on the roster project to be 2nd/3rd liners in the NHL or have little chance to even make the league, so they definitely need to strengthen the depth of their forward corps and this draft is a great chance for them to do that. While there are a lot of defensemen projected to go in the first round, there are also a lot of very talented forwards who the Canes can take with any of their picks.

Carolina has ten picks this draft and while lower round picks never project to amount to much, you can never have too many good young players in your system, so the Hurricanes need to make their picks count. There are always a few late round picks who make the pros out of nowhere and it's possible that there might be a few lurking in this draft. Countless times you will see a GM value things like talent, size and skill over their performance which leads to some guys falling in the draft. One way to find these players is to look at their point-per-game total at their current level and see who is playing well by this standard. 

Over the next couple of weeks, we are going to use this method for different leagues to evaluate certain players in the draft and see which ones might be available when it's the Hurricanes turn to pick. It isn't perfect because goals and points alone aren't the best way to judge a player, especially ones who are in junior hockey. A player could have a great season that's driven completely by a high shooting percentage or he might be used in more favorable situations compared to others among other complications. Unfortunately, the amount of data available in these leagues is very limited so this is the furthest amount of statistical analysis that can be done for a lot of prospects. I was also going to include their NHL Equivalency value, but that probably doesn't mean much to the Hurricanes. There's a 90% chance that all of the players they take will not make the team next year, so how their performance last season compares to the NHL level doesn't mean much.

After the jump, we are going to take a look at the forward prospects who played in the Canadian Hockey League last season. This is the most popular junior league in the world and a good chunk of the players in the draft usually come from there, so we are going to get a decent sample of players to examine here. Are there any hidden gems coming from the CHL this year? Let's find out.