If you have talked to anyone who has dabbled with in-depth hockey stats before, they will probably tell you that shots are the most debated and controversial topic among statisticans and regular bloggers. Most hockey statisticians use simple shots for/against to judge how effective certain players and teams are at controlling the pace of play, which usually translates to a team winning more often than not. Despite numerous evidence showing that controlling the shot battle usually leads to more victories, there have been detractors to this theory. The usual argument against shots being a predictor of success is that there are some teams who are better at controlling "shots of higher quality" than others. In theory, this makes a lot of sense because shot that comes from close in the slot has a better chance of being a goal than a harmless looking wrister from a weak angle. Thus, the scoring chance project was launched last season where numerous bloggers tracked scoring chances for their favorite teams, myself included. This process has been explained numerous times but if you want a refresher of how we tracked chances, go here.

There have been at least 18 individual team seasons tracked over the last few years and Eric T. of Broad Street Hockey and NHL Numbers discovered a couple months ago that the difference between shot differential and scoring chance differential is minimal. Tracking scoring chances showed us nothing that simple shot data couldn't, so the claim has been made that tracking scoring chances is unnecessary and not more of a predictor of future success. On a team level, I agree but I am still believe that scoring chances have some value, but on an individual level rather than a team level. 

Using scoring chance differential doesn't prove to be anymore useful than using shot data, but most fans will tell you that a certain player is better at creating scoring chances than another. These opinions are likely subjective and don't mean much at face value but I've always felt the same way. Whenever I watch a game, I notice that there are some players who are better at getting shots off from dangerous scoring areas and those players could have more value than others. The problems with this belief is not knowing how much of a difference there is between a scoring chance and a regular shot on goal in the long run. You also have to wonder if the number of scoring chances a player records in a year is sustainable over the course of multiple seasons or not. 

To see how much of a difference shot location makes for an individual player (if any at all), we can look at where each player shot the puck in a given season and see how many of his shots came from within a dangerous scoring area. This could show us how effective a certain player is at creating offense or how more likely he is to score than a player who is less effective at getting into scoring areas. With help from Greg Sinclair's Super Shot Search web site, I looked at every shot each Carolina player last season and determined whether or not it was a scoring chance. After that, I used this data to see how effective each player was at creating scoring chances.

A closer look at the data is coming after the jump.

A point that I have constantly refuted with most of the players in this feature is that it usually takes a few years for them to develop and they likely won't be playing in the NHL everyday until they are in their 20's. For the Hurricanes, Justin Faulk has been one of the two exceptions to that rule. When you have a defenseman in your organization who is only 19 years old, most hope that he may turn into a great/useful NHL player someday. Faulk only turned 20 years old in March and is already a top-four defenseman in the NHL.

It's really amazing to look at how much Faulk has accomplished over the last 18 months. He was part of a National Championship winning Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs squad last April and then played with the Charlotte Checkers in the AHL playoffs only a few weeks later. He then went onto make the Carolina Hurricanes out of camp last season and became part of the full-time roster in November. If that wasn't impressive enough, Faulk was relied on to play some heavy minutes for the Canes despite being at such a young age. Faulk played more minutes per game than any other Carolina blue-liner last year and was a key contributor in all three areas of the game. In addition to that, he was being tested against some pretty tough opponents as he ranked third among Carolina defensemen in quality of competition.

Now, Faulk didn't come out of this unscathed as he was in the red in terms of the amount of shots he was on-ice for and gave up a lot of chances at even strength, but his performance was very good for a rookie who was carrying an enormous workload. Despite his young age, Faulk showed a ton of composure in his own end and his defensive play was actually very impressive. He managed to do this while regularly playing against opposing team's top-sixes and playing on the Hurricanes second PK unit. I should also mention that he was the team's strongest penalty killing defenseman. This was probably the most surprising thing about his rookie season because Faulk was projected to be somewhat of a high-risk, offensive defenseman but he plays a very fundamentally sound game, especially for a kid his age. I still think Faulk has some work to do with his decision making but at this point in his career, he is far ahead of where most expected him to be, and that is a good sign.

Faulk's rookie season is even more impressive when you take his age into context. Since the lockout, there have only been a handful of defensemen who played full seasons in the NHL before they turned 20 and Faulk is in good company with many of the players on this list. He may not reach the heights that Jim Rutherford compared him to weeks ago, but the Canes definitely have a special player on their hands here. He wasn't as good as the likes of Drew Doughty or Tyler Myers in their rookie seasons but he was used in similar situations as those two and his performance wasn't terribly far off. That being said, Cam Fowler and Zach Bogosian are probably better comparables for Faulk if you look at each player's quality of competition rankings on their respective clubs. Once again, that's pretty good company to be in.

It is going to be tough for Faulk to live up to expectations next year because his rookie campaign was so good that everyone might forget that he's still just a kid and learning his way around the NHL. However, if he does improve on his rookie season then it's pretty amazing to think about what player he will be in his mid-20's. We're starting to see more young blue-liners break into the league and become top 20-40 defensemen in the league at young ages, so the future is very bright for Faulk but there are things he can improve on.

I said earlier that he played a fundamentally sound game but he was still on ice for a lot of chances against at even strength, so I would expect him to improve on that next season by playing an even stronger game in his own zone. I'm not sure what he can do to improve on that other than improve his physical play to make life tough for opposing forwards. He isn't the best shot blocker either but it's better if he isn't relied on to block shots constantly since that's not his top asset. Plus, Faulk should be spending more time in the opponent's end of the rink since he is a good enough skater and puck-handler to be the type of player that drives possession at even strength. He wasn't the best in that area last season but given his skillset and the amount of chances he produced last season, I think we will see that improve over time.

In addition to having stronger underlying numbers, another thing I am hoping for Faulk to improve on next year is his even strength point production. Five of the eight goals and 12 of the 22 points he recorded last season came on the powerplay, so he wasn't exactly an offensive force despite being on ice for a lot of chances at even strength. He was very good on the powerplay but a look at his 5-on-4 shooting percentage shows that his production there could be prone to regress next season. Faulk was on ice for 20 powerplay goals but the volume of shots he was on ice for was pretty low while the Canes had the man advantage, so that makes me a tad skeptical of how his 5-on-4 numbers will look next season. His overall numbers, however, should be fine because he had very poor shooting luck at even strength despite producing a lot of scoring chances. It's possible that his improvement at even strength could cancel out the decline in powerplay production, should it occur.

There are a lot of reasons to be excited about Faulk right now. It's tough to find someone who could possibly be a franchise defenseman in the second round of the draft and it's even more rare for someone of Faulk's age to play in the situations that he did last season. The possibilities are endless for him right now and it should be a thrill to watch him in years to come.

If you were to ask anyone who the Carolina Hurricanes top prospect is right now, the unanimous answer would likely be defenseman Ryan Murphy. Sure, you may have a few people say either Jeff Skinner or Justin Faulk but it is hard to call either a "prospect" right now since they both playing significant roles on the NHL club while Murphy is still unproven. The former 2011 first round selection has yet to play an NHL game but Carolina fans have gotten the chance to see him in action numerous times and always seem to be impressed when they watch him. The fans weren't the only ones who have been impressed with him, though. Murphy's performance at the Traverse City Tournament and in training camp also caught the eyes of the Carolina front office as they quickly signed him to a three-year entry level deal and kept him on the NHL roster to begin the season.

Despite that, Murphy watched the first three regular season games from the press box and was quickly sent back to Kitchener, which was probably the right move given the high number of defensemen the Hurricanes were carrying on the roster at the time. Murphy is going to have his chance to make the team again this year since the Carolina defense is going to need all the help they can get but he might be better off spending another year in Kitchener. Why? Because at only 19 years old, Murphy is probably only a third pairing defenseman right now and the Canes won't be getting max value out of his ELC if they use him in that role. Plus, the Canes have a lot of offensive-minded defensemen already looking to make the team and offense is at least 70% of Murphy's game. 

That isn't an exaggeration. Murphy is a player with some incredibly offensive gifts as he has put up huge numbers from the blue-line during his time with the Kitchener Rangers. He was more than a point-per-game player the last two seasons and was second on the Rangers in goals in the 2010-11 season with 26, trailing only Gabriel Landeskog. His skating and puck-handling skills make him a very dangerous offensive defenseman and he has certainly proven that during his time in Kitchener. Now the question is can Murphy translate this success to the NHL and how long will it take him to get there?

The Hurricanes seem to think Murphy is going to be ready within the next year, so we may get to see what he is all about very soon. One thing we know about him is that he is a great offensive talent and has a high-risk, high-reward style of play. We can talk for hours about how he needs to "work on his game in his own zone" and be more of an all-around player but that is going to take a bit of time. What makes Murphy such a great player are his offensive skills and he has been used to playing this certain style for awhile now. He is going to make mistakes (i.e. committ turnovers, get caught deep, make mistakes in coverage, etc.) and fans are going to have to deal with that because Murphy is young and has an aggressive approach to the game. Murphy may never become the ideal two-way defenseman that everyone loves to have, but what he can do is learn to make better decisions with the puck and be a little less careless in his own zone. These are skills that Murphy can improve on as he gets older and all the Hurricanes can do is ease him into the NHL as he adjusts to the NHL.

Murphy can learn to be more responsible but his size is something that might stand in his way of being a top defenseman at the next level. He stands at a little under six feet tall and weighs around 160-170 lbs., which is pretty small for an NHL defenseman. Murphy can always get bigger since he isn't even 20 years old yet, but he is still under-sized and that could end up being a problem soon. That isn't to say that smaller players can't succeed, but this along with his lack of physical play might limit the ways that Carolina can utilize him. Let's just say that he could end up more like Kris Russell instead of Kris Letang if his size really becomes an issue. It's also worth mentioning that he has suffered a concussion within the last year.

That being said, Murphy is still a very special talent and could develop into a fantastic player if the Hurricanes handle him the right way. Whether or not this means he should be in the NHL next year will depend on how he looks come training camp and what the front office thinks of him. Murphy is coming off a bit of a tough season by his standards, a large part of that is due to the concussion he sustained early in the year but he was still very effective when healthy and had a good showing in the OHL playoffs with 22 points in 20 games.

It is easy to make the argument that Murphy has nothing to gain by playing another year in juniors but when you look at the overall picture, it makes a little more sense. Murphy is still a year away from AHL eligibility so the Canes will have Murphy on the big club for the entire year if they decide to keep him, and he likely won't get above the third pairing in his rookie season. If the Hurricanes want to get the most out of Murphy's ELC years, then using him in a third-pairing role with limited ice time on an already crowded defense corps probably isn't the best way to go. Factor in the concussion and sending him back to junior doesn't seem like the worst decision in the world unless he blows people away in training camp (if there is one).

The fans and the front office are probably excited to see this kid contribute to the NHL but I think it's going to take some time before Murphy is fully ready. I think he will have a good career but, as I mentioned earlier, Murphy is going to make some mistakes along the way and it's probably best to stay patient with him for now. My personal expectations for Murphy next season are somewhat low but I can guarantee you that the bar will be raised in a year or two.

There isn't much to say about Jamie McBain that hasn't already been gone over because he was the focal point of a lot of discussion among Carolina fans this year. He started off the year as a healthy scratch but he quickly made his way back into the lineup and the injury to Joni Pitkanen along with the eventual trade of Tomas Kaberle opened up a lot of new doors for him. As a result, Carolina fans got to see McBain at his best and at his worst plenty of times this season so there were a lot of different opinions of him going around.

You aren't going to find many people saying that McBain is an emerging star, but a good amount of Carolina fans see him as a key part of the Carolina defense corps since he has regularly played big minutes in his young NHL career. On the other side of the coin, you have people who see McBain as a defensive liability and a player who constantly makes them want to throw objects at their television sets because he always seemed to be involved in the play when the opposing team scores. So which side is correct here?

I have watched McBain closely through this past season and have determined that McBain is roughly in the middle of the two ends of the spectrum. McBain supplied a lot of the Hurricanes offense this year as he was on ice for a little over four scoring chances at even strength per 15 minutes, which is a pretty good rate for a defenseman. The problem? He was on ice for about the same amount of scoring chances against at even strength, so McBain was giving a lot back at the other end, as well. McBain was still the Hurricanes third highest ranked defenseman in even strength scoring chance differential despite that. He also ranked second among Carolina defensemen in corsi relative, showing that he was slightly better at driving possession than his teammates.

That may come as a surprise to some Carolina fans because for most of the season, it seemed like the Canes didn't know what they were going to do with McBain. If having too many puck-moving defenseman is an embarrassment of riches then that is what the Hurricanes have on their hands right now. With so many of these players in the system (and many of them on the NHL team), some of them are going to be forced into roles that they aren't ready for and the Hurricanes tried to do this with McBain after Pitkanen was injured. McBain was promoted to the shutdown pair with Tim Gleason for most of December and was then bumped back down to the third pairing with Jaroslav Spacek after he returned from injury sometime in January. It was in the latter role which McBain began to shine.

Spacek and McBain were utilized mostly in offensive situations and McBain really excelled in this role. These two were the Hurricanes best defense pairing at controlling scoring chances last season and part of the reason was due to the fact that they received the softest minutes on the team. They were rarely matched up against the opposing team's top-six, started most of their shifts in the offensive zone (this applies to Spacek more than McBain) and played fewer minutes than the rest of the defense. So while these two made the most of their ice time and took advantage of their softer minutes, they were still given a push by the coaching staff and that played a big role in their success as a unit. 

Something positive that you can take away from the last two years is that McBain has proven himself as a capable third pairing defenseman. His main responsibilities involve creating offense, moving the puck out of the defensive zone and working the powerplay, all three being areas that McBain is skilled in and has done for Carolina since his arrival. He has also been called upon to do more in the event of an injury but the results have been mixed in those situations. You can see from McBain's WOWY that he and Joni Pitkanen have struggled in a top-four role and McBain does not kill penalties either, so it has left some people worried about his development and what his supposed ceiling is.

It might be frustrating to look at McBain right now if you compare him to Justin Faulk, but I honestly do not think there is much to be concerned about with the rate McBain is developing at. Defensemen in general take a long time to mature and McBain is only 24 years old, so he still has time to grow and could possibly develop into a more dependable top-four option in due time. As of right now, he is a very good third pairing defenseman and a borderline top-four guy, which is roughly in line with most defensemen who are in his age group. Compare him to Marc-Eduoard Vlasic, Nikita Nikitin or Karl Alzner and you're going to be disappointed but McBain's play isn't too far off from the likes of Kevin Shattenkirk, Luca Sbisa, Jason Demers and Cody Franson. None of those players are stars, but they are all useful defensemen on their respective teams and have a decent amount of potential, as well.

Whether or not McBain will live up to that potential remains to be seen but as of right now, he is an everyday player for the Hurricanes and a very solid third pairing defenseman. Carolina decided to reward him with a two year contract extension with a $1.8 mil. cap hit, which is where his value is now as a third-pairing defenseman. The Hurricanes should have plenty of time to evaluate McBain over the next couple of years and determine whether or not they see him in the team's long-term plans. We know that he is a good bottom-pairing guy right now and has the potential to do more, but McBain could have to step into a bigger role in the next couple of years if he wants to stay in Carolina after his new deal runs out. I said this earlier, but the Canes have a lot of puck-moving defensemen in their system and while McBain has an advantage over the rest since he is in the NHL right now, he might have to do more in the next couple of years to make himself stand out.

McBain is fine where he is right now but there is always room for improvement, and with the Hurricanes needing someone to play with Tim Gleason, McBain has a good chance to show that he can be more than what he has shown so far.

A couple days before the NHL free agency period began, the Hurricanes decided to buy out the final year of defenseman Derek Joslin's contract and allowed him to become a UFA. It shouldn't take a genius to figure out why Joslin was bought out when you look at the season he had. He didn't contribute much offense, had the worst possession numbers on the team despite receiving some incredibly soft ice time and couldn't be counted on to play more than 7-10 minutes a game. Joslin was on a one-way deal and was set to make $750,000 this season, which is too much for someone who was likely going to be playing in the AHL, so it's easy to see why the Hurricanes decided to cut him loose.

Joslin had a terrible season and I can't really defend any of the numbers he put up, but I can't help but be confused as to why he played so poorly. Sure, he was unproven at the beginning of the season but he was a solid player at the AHL level while he was in the Sharks organization and played decently enough with Carolina after they acquired him in the Ian White trade. Take a look at his underlying numbers from the last few seasons and you'll notice a huge drop-off that occurred last season.

"FenClose" is Joslin's Fenwick percentage at even strength when the game is close. It measures the amount of shot attempts that Joslin was on ice for and what percentage the Hurricanes controlled during those times. In the 34 games he played in the 2010 season, Joslin was barely getting outplayed at even strength and appeared to be serviceable as a third-pairing defenseman or an AHL call-up. He turned into a complete liability at even strength the next year for whatever reason. The Hurricanes were stuck in their own end for the majority of the time he was on the ice and this was despite him starting nearly 60% of his even strength shifts in the offensive zone. Is Joslin really this bad or were there some other factors that caused things to go wrong for him?

Sports fans always have a different set of precedents for certain prospects in their favorite team's system. In hockey, expectations are usually higher for prospects that were taken earlier in the draft or have an impressive track record at the college and junior levels. The team's organizational depth usually plays a role in fan's expectations, as well. For example, a forward who was a point-per-game player for a couple seasons in the OHL, he might be looked upon as the crowned jewel of a team's prospect pool whereas he might be lower in the rankings on a deeper team with more prospects similar to him. On a team with a lot of organizational depth, there would be less depended on just one prospect and the expectations for him would be leveled a bit. They might even have some more patience and allow him to develop in the AHL for a few years.

The Hurricanes, unfortunately, haven't had that deep of a forward prospect pool that last few seasons so anyone who posts big college or junior numbers rises to the top of the rankings. They have a lot of good players in the system like Drayson Bowman, Zach Boychuk, Chris Terry and Justin Shugg, but not many of them have much star potential with the main exception being Jeff Skinner, who immediately jumped to the NHL after being drafted. Then there's Zac Dalpe, who is somewhat of a fan favorite and has been a lot of people's "breakout" pick for the last two years because of his talent and success at the lower levels. During those two seasons, Dalpe has made the team out of camp but failed to stick with the Hurricanes and has spent the majority of his time with the Checkers in the AHL.

This isn't the worst thing in the world because Dalpe is only 22 years old a couple of years in the AHL isn't going to stunt his development, but most were hoping for Dalpe to break into the pros much sooner. He was a second round pick but his fantastic sophomore season with the Ohio State Buckeyes got the fanbase really excited about him. Dalpe showcased his terrific goal scoring prowess and high-end offensive ability throughout his college career and carried it over to the pros with the Charlotte Checkers with a 23 goal, 57 point rookie campaign, earning him AHL Rookie of the Year honors. He has the makings of a potential top-six forward in the NHL and certainly has the talent to make that jump, so it's easy to see why people are excited about him.

Another year has gone by and Dalpe is still largely unproven as an NHL-er. He has played 31 total games and his underlying numbers have been largely underwhelming during that time. To add to that, he had a down season with the Checkers with only 18 goals and 32 points in 56 total games. It may have caused some people to label him as a bust and claim that he won't be the top-six player that many hoped he would be, but there is a possibility that this season may have just been a bump in the road for Dalpe. All players have down years and it isn't too far-fetched to say that Dalpe can rebound.

No player should be considered a "bust" at 22, but Dalpe is probably lower in the rankings now than he was a year ago, and a lot of that is because of his most recent season. Once again, he was good enough to make the team out of camp and ended up getting saddled with fourth-line minutes for the first month of the season and was eventually placed on IR after suffering the dreaded "lower-body injury" in a game against Buffalo. There was also a rumor of him fighting through a lingering injury in training camp, so Dalpe wasn't at 100% during his brief stint with the Hurricanes, and the fact that he was getting less than 10 minutes a game wasn't helping his development either.

It's also worth mentioning that Dalpe was better for the Checkers than his scoring line indicates. He was the team's second best player in shots on goal per game, and was also one of the best in the AHL in that category. His goal total did not fall off by that much, but his point total was a completely different story and likely the reason he saw such a decline in points. The Checkers shot at only 8.5% as a team last season, so it's not unreasonable to believe that bad luck attributed to the low amount of assists Dalpe had last season. This is something that will improve if Dalpe keeps playing at the level he has for the last couple of seasons. However, what fans probably care more about is whether or not Dalpe will be in the NHL full-time next season.

Dalpe has a good opportunity to do so with the team's third line center spot being available. He was good enough to make the team out of camp for two years in a row, so he can do it again but he has a little more competition this time around with Jeremy Welsh, Drayson Bowman and Zach Boychuk all trying to achieve the same goal. There just aren't enough roster spots to go around and Dalpe will have to do something to stand out among the rest of Carolina's prospects. He will also have to show that he is good enough to play in a top-nine role because keeping him on the team to be a fourth liner (again) isn't going to do much of anything and he would almost be better off in Charlotte.

Regardless, I think Dalpe will be an NHL-er at some point in his career. It could be next season or another year from now, but I think he is good enough to make it and is talented enough to be a contributing player in the top-nine. It's all a matter of when it happens but I think fans need to be more patient with him and his development. Am I frustrated that he spent most of last year in the AHL? To an extent, yes, but have I given up hope in him? Absolutely not. Dalpe is going to get his chances while he is under team control and we will have to wait and see how things turn out. He hasn't made the jump to the NHL as quickly as I hoped but at this point, there is little reason for me to believe that he can't become a top-nine player within the next couple years.

Bobby Sanguinetti is a player who has fallen on tough luck during his time in the pros. After being a first round selection by the New York Rangers in the 2006 NHL Draft and being an offensive stud during junior hockey, he has yet to make any sort of impact in the NHL. Part of the reason for this is because his game is pretty one-dimensional. As an offensive defenseman, Sanguinetti's main roles are quarterbacking the powerplay, moving the puck through the neutral zone and jumping into the play to create chances. He is skilled in all of these qualities but his play in the defensive zone hasn't quite developed at the rate that most scouts were hoping. Still, most teams always seem to have room for players like Sanguinetti, so why hasn't he played more than three total games in the NHL? The reason is that every organization he has been a part of have players who are like Sanguinetti, but superior to him.

Look at the Rangers' 2009-10 squad when Sanguinetti was a 20-21 year old and had a reasonable chance to make the team out of camp. He was one of their better defensive prospects at the time, but he failed to secure a roster spot and was beaten out by the likes of Michael Del Zotto and Matt Gilroy. With those two plus Wade Redden and Michael Rozsival, the Rangers had enough offensive-minded defensemen on the team and Sanguinetti just wasn't good enough to make the final cut. His shortcomings in the defensive zone and poor decision making led to him falling out of favor with the coaching staff in New York and Rutherford was able to acquire him in exchange for one of Carolina's second round picks.

Sanguinetti had his problems with the Rangers but he was also in his early 20's at the time and not every defenseman can pick up the game as quickly as some would hope. Plus, he was not going to ascend much in the Rangers system with the high volume of defensive prospects they have, so a change of scenery was probably best for both parties involved. How has this move worked out for him? So far, it hasn't been too bad. He hasn't seen much NHL action, but he became one of the Checkers top defensemen last season, which could really help him work his way up in Carolina's rankings. Sanguinetti was injured for most of his first season in Charlotte but he really stepped up his game last season with 10 goals and 50 points in 60 games, placing him second on the Checkers in points.

This was the kind of offensive firepower that most people were expecting from Sanguinetti since his junior years as he was a vital part of the Checkers powerplay. He scored scored seven of his goals with the man advantage and his terrific puck-moving skills proved to be a huge asset for Charlotte's even strength play, as well. Sanguinetti also possesses a very good shot from the point and opposing teams have learned that the hard way more than a few times. His decision making has also improved a lot over the last year as he made fewer careless turnovers last season and seems to know when to jump into the play and when not to. That will be very important if he wants to make it to the next level.

That being said, Sanguinetti still plays a high-risk game and is prone to the occasional blunder in the defensive zone. He also finished the year as a -12 in Charlotte despite being nearly a point-per-game player and that tells me a few things. Either he tallied more points on the powerplay than I remember (which is possible given that seven of his ten goals were PPG's), he was on ice for a lot of even strength goals against or the Checkers goalies couldn't stop a beach ball when he was on the ice. It was likely a combination of all three because while Sanguinetti was not a complete defensive liability, he definitely had a lot of trouble when it came to battling against forwards in the defensive zone. He is still in his early 20's, so there is always room for improvement but the fact of the matter is that Sanguinetti is likely going to remain an offensive-minded player for the rest of his career. That is where is his most skilled and he will be more successful in the NHL if he is utilized in this fashion.

However, Sanguinetti could have trouble making the Hurricanes next season for this exact same reason. I mentioned earlier that his great year with the Checkers might lead to him being higher on the totem pole than he was before, but he is in a similar situation to where he was with the Rangers a few years before. With Joni Pitkanen, Jamie McBain, Justin Faulk, Joe Corvo, Ryan Murphy and Marc-Andre Gragnani all looking for spots on the Hurricanes next year, it's hard to find a place for Sanguinetti because there are just too many offensive-minded guys there and Sangs has to do something to make himself stand out among the pack. He is also not exempt from waivers, so the Canes are going to run the risk of losing him to another organization if he doesn't make the team out of camp. There are always a lot of good players who manage to pass through waivers with no issue but it's still a risk to take given how important of a player Sanguinetti is to Charlotte.

There are NHL teams who could find use in a player like Sanguinetti and I'm sure that he got the coaching staff's attention with the year he had with the Checkers, but Sanguinetti needs to go above and beyond to make the Hurricanes out of camp this year. When I say that, I mean he needs to have a more well-rounded game and be more than just an offensive force because they have enough players on the prospective roster to assume that role for next season. Also, if Sanguinetti is still only a borderline third pairing defenseman in the NHL this season, then he is probably better off playing bigger minutes in Charlotte. The only issue here is that the Hurricanes can't call him up without exposing him to waivers unless it's an emergency recall, so he'll likely be stuck there. That will make the final roster cuts in training camp very interesting.

Regardless, Sanguinetti should have a future in the NHL but it's tough to tell if that he will be with the Hurricanes when his time eventually comes.

Undrafted college free agents are always tough ones to figure out. General managers always tend to jump on these players once the NCAA season ends in an attempt to find some NHL-ready talent at a very low cost. Their college boxcar numbers usually look good and they have the makings of being a capable NHL-er on paper, but they don't always turn out that way. There have been a lot of undrafted free agents like Chris Kunitz, Adam Oates, Dan Boyle, Brian Rafalski and Martin St. Louis who have gone on to have good careers but there have been just as many UDFA's like Jason Krog, Lee Sweatt, Cory Murphy, Andrew Ebbett, Bill Thomas and Keith Aucoin who haven't done much in the NHL during their careers. I do not deny that some GM's have an eye for these kinds of players and have a good idea of which ones have the most potential to make it in the NHL but overall, there have just been so many of them that have gone in either direction.

The Hurricanes don't have a ton of experience in dealing with players like this, but they are going to hope that their newest UDFA, Jeremy Welsh can step into the NHL relatively soon. Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford was quick to sign Welsh to a one-year deal after his Union Dutchmen were eliminated from the Frozen Four this spring and the Canes were fortunate enough to see him suit up for the Hurricanes in their final game of the season. He took a couple of penalties in that game but he was very solid otherwise. He ended up in the black in scoring chances and created a couple on his own according to my game reports. Unfortunately, that's all the NHL experience he has so far but it probably won't be his last.

One good thing that came from the Hurricanes jumping on Welsh so early is that he is close to being at the age where he should be ready for the NHL and could contribute as soon as this year. He was also coming off a fantastic junior year as the captain of Union College's hockey team and was arguably their best player during their Frozen Four run, so there were a few teams looking to acquire him. The Hurricanes were very fortunate to get him, but they still have yet to come to terms on a new contract with Welsh. He is currently a restricted free agent and it's taking a bit longer than expected to get a deal done, but one would think that the Hurricanes are reasonably close to getting something done. It wouldn't be a surprised if he got a three-year, two-way contract similar to what Matt Read of the Philadelphia Flyers got before last season. Although, it might be a little hard to justify spending a considerable amount of money on him because he has played only one NHL game in his entire career. His college resume is nothing but impressive, though.

Welsh scored 27 goals and had 44 points in 40 games last season, which were the second and fifth highest ECAC totals in each category, respectively. His 6'3" frame and ability to dominate battles along the boards have earned him the reputation as a "power forward" in college, which is something that could make him fit in nicely on a checking line next year for the Hurricanes. This along with his scoring potential makes him a very intriguing prospect and it also helps that he is close to being ready to contribute at the NHL level. Will he be able to do that next year? We'll have to wait and see but he definitely has the tools to succeed and it's interesting to think about what he can bring to the Hurricanes if he can carry over his play from college.

Hopefully Carolina can get this contract situation sorted out relatively soon because Welsh is good enough to make an immediate impact on the Hurricanes. He can fill the team's void at third line center, improve the team's forward depth and plays a strong possession-type game that the Hurricanes really need right now. If the can make the jump to be in the NHL full-time next year, then it would be a huge boost to the Canes. Whether or not he can do that is still up in the air, but the Hurricanes don't need him to be a star like he was in college, they just need him to be a contributing top-nine player within the next couple of years. Given Welsh's talent and college experience, this seems like a doable task.

Much of the discussion of the Hurricanes this off-season has been concerning their revamped top-six and the issues they have on defense. While there is no doubt that these are very important areas of discussion for next season, something that might be getting overlooked is the team's third line and how different it will look next season. I have talked about this before, but substituting Jordan Staal for Brandon Sutter allows the Hurricanes to change the dynamics of their forward corps and we could see the third line used in a completely different way than before. For the last couple of years, the Canes third line has been your prototypical checking line that was used in a heavy defensive role. Carolina having terrific defensive forwards like Sutter, Patrick Dwyer and Andreas Nodl allowed them to have a unit that they could use in such situations.

With Sutter gone, some might think that the Canes need a defensive center to fill that void but that isn't necessarily true since both Staal brothers are capable of playing against the toughs and they have enough players in their system capable of centering the third line right now. With the top two lines likely handling most of the tougher assignments, the bottom-six could be able to play a more offensive role than they have in the past. I've mentioned the possibility of the Hurricanes running this type of system a few times before and that is mainly because they have a good personnel to do so.

Think about it, one of the team's biggest problems last year was not having enough forwards who were of top-six quality and that they had to use players who would be third liners on most teams on the top two lines. Scoring was hard to come by last season and one reason for that was because their top-six regularly consisted of players like Chad LaRose, Jiri Tlusty, Drayson Bowman and and Jerome Samson. None of whom are bad players but they aren't exactly ideal top-six options. Despite that, they all did a fine job playing in the roles they were assigned last season and could have a lot of success in an offensive third-line role. One player in particular who may have a lot of success in this role is Chad LaRose. 

It is weird to think about what this list would look like if it was made starting last season. Had I done that, there is a good chance that players like Zach Boychuk would be in the Top 10 while Jiri Tlusty would be towards the bottom of the list. It's a year later now and while Boychuk has still yet to make his mark in the NHL, Tlusty did just that last season with a 17-goal, 36-point breakout campaign. Tlusty was primarily a fourth liner and AHL tweener before last season, so the expectations for him are usually pretty low, but one thing that's often forgotten about him is that he is still pretty young and has been slowly improving over the last few years.

It may seem like Tlusty is older because he's been in the league for awhile but he only turned 24 in March and seems to have finally solidified himself as an NHL-er now. Unfortunately, he will likely be seen as a "draft bust" by the larger media because of his draft slot and the Leafs possibly rushing him into the NHL before he was ready. Jim Rutherford decided to take a chance on Tlusty by trading Philippe Paradis to the Leafs for him and things seemed to have turned out well now. Tlusty had to work his way through the system and earn his ice-time with the Hurricanes but he appears to have earned a permanent spot on the team now and was a big part of the Canes first line last year.

A big part of Tlusty's breakout season was that the was able to show great chemistry with Eric Staal and the duo were very effective despite playing with a revolving door on the other wing. Tlusty and Staal were able to win the scoring chance battle at even strength when they were playing together, but things get a little interesting if you look at Tlusty's WOWY chart in the linked article. You can see that Tlusty had trouble controlling scoring chances when he was playing away from Staal and that could make you wonder how he will do in the future when he is playing with different linemates. Although, a reason for his poor underlying numbers is that he was playing on Brandon Sutter's line for most of the first half of the season, which is the line that gets the biggest defensive responsibilities on the team. Tlusty's defensive game may have developed nicely but he clearly wasn't ready for that role.

Tlusty has shown in his days in the AHL that he has a lot of offensive talent and has top-six potential but it's unknown if he can carry a line on his own. His underlying numbers at even strength have never been very good but he showed last year that he is at least able to get the job done with good linemates and his goal total wasn't driven by high percentages like some may think. The issue is that his performance next year is going to depend on what kind of ice-time he gets and what situation he will be playing in, neither of which can be determined right now. He might stay in the top-six if he looks good enough in camp but he could end up on a completely different line with a weaker center. What happens then? We'll have to wait and see.

Again, Tlusty is still very young and played about 42% of his career ice-time in last season alone so there is a lot about him that is unproven at this point. He had a great year but I would like to see some sustained production from him before anyone starts claiming him as a legit top-six forward. Hopefully he will get the chance to do that next year but if not, then I see no reason why he can't be a useful third liner. His scoring rate last year (1.68 at even strength) would be very good for a third liner, so if he can produce at a similar rate next year then the Hurricanes should be able to get their money's worth with Tlusty. He's only going to be paid $1.6 mil. over the next two years, so getting anything more than third line production out of him would be a terrific bargain under the current salary cap.

The main thing with Tlusty is that for every reason there is to be excited about his future, there is every bit of reason to be skeptical. There is no denying that he has talent and has worked hard to earn his place on the Hurricanes, but his underlying numbers are very spotty and he's had only one good season so far. Carolina made a great decision to keep him around at a low cost for two years, because it's enough time to evaluate him and he can still give the team great value if he continues to play to his potential.