Hurricanes Prospect Update: 1/21 - 1/28

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The prospect reports are going to be presented differently from here on out. Instead of going through each player individually, we're going to go by leagues and note some of the standout performances. The reason for this is because there have often been a lot of cases where there wasn't much to report on for some players because they were either injured, suspended or didn't do much in the previous week. I haven't posted an update on Carolina's NCAA prospects in awhile for exactly that reason. So going through every single prospect every week was getting rather daunting and I thought it would be easier to present everyone's stats and talk about some individual standouts.

There is plenty to talk about on this first installment as Brock McGinn and Ryan Murphy both had tremendous weeks for their respective clubs. We'll talk about them in detail after the jump.

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Game 5 Scoring Chances: Bruins at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Last night's 5-3 loss to the Boston Bruins was easily the most frustrating loss for the Hurricanes in this young season. The team got off to a poor start and fell in a 2-0 hole but managed to battle back and had the Bruins right where they wanted them at the second intermission. Unfortunately, they could not capitalize on this opportunity and came out flat for the third period which resulted in them being stuck in their own end for most of that frame and the Bruins eventually taking advantage of it by scoring a late third period goal. It was a classic case of one team playing to win and the other simply trying not to lose. Whether this was due to the Canes top players being worn out from playing too many minutes or simply being outworked by the Bruins is something that's up for discussion but either way, it was not pretty to watch.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump.

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Bad third period dooms Carolina, drop 5-3 decision to Bruins

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Many people believed that tonight's game against the Boston Bruins would be a good test for this Carolina team that appears to be on the upswing but still has plenty of kinks to work out before they can be called a contender. The Hurricanes gave the Bruins a good run for their money for the most part in this game but ultimately came up short as the same bad habits occurred yet again and they ended up costing the Hurricanes. Those who have watched these first five games probably know what these said habits are by now; slow starts and bad special teams play.

Carolina got off to an awful start by giving up a shorthanded goal and followed it up by surrendering a powerplay goal shortly after. Their play at even strength was strong for the first two periods or so but the fact that they couldn't do anything with the six powerplays they were given came back to haunt them as it gave them multiple opportunities to get back into the game early on. Despite the bad powerplay, the Canes managed to rally back in the second period on the back of strong five-on-five play and some good linematching by Kirk Muller to eventually tie things up at 3-3 heading into the second intermission. That's when you would think that Carolina would begin to tip the scales in their favor, but they came out flat in the third period, couldn't get any offense going and were dominated by the Bruins. It resulted in David Krejci scoring the game-winner with less than two minutes remaining and the Hurricanes taking their third loss of the season.

The Bruins were playing to win the game while the Hurricanes were simply trying not to lose. Considering that the Bruins are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and the Hurricanes were playing with basically five defensemen, things could have been a lot worse, but it's still frustrating to see them a lose a game that they could have won had they not fallen into the same old habits.

Obviously it's a long season and a young team with a lot of new pieces like Carolina are going to suffer some growing pains, but the Hurricanes not being able to create any sort of offense in the third period is a large concern in my eyes. So is their powerplay dropping another goose egg despite getting six attempts and their tendency to come out sleeping for the first 5-10 minutes of a game. They are all fixable errors and they will be corrected in time but there is less time to fix things like this in a shortened season, so the Hurricanes will need to right the ship quickly. Fortunately for them, they have the next few days off before they take on the Ottawa Senators on Friday. That should allow them some time to get healthy and work on some of their flaws in practice before it's too late.

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Game 5 Preview: Bruins at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes
PNC Arena, 7 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, NESN, NHL Network

Spirits in Raleigh are much higher than they were a week ago, as the Hurricanes come into tonight winning their last two games and look to continue their streak tonight when they take on the Boston Bruins. The Hurricanes managed to sweep the season series with Boston last season and that might surprise a lot of people considering where both teams finished in the standings. They also outscored the Bruins 14-5 in their four meetings last season and right away that should tell you that goaltender Cam Ward, who had a save percentage of .965 against Boston last year, played a big role in the Hurricanes winning those games.

The Canes probably aren't going to be as fortunate against the Bruins this time around because it doesn't look like Ward has any 40+ save performances up his sleeve judging by his performance so far this year. Carolina will also be playing without their best defenseman in Justin Faulk, who sustained an injury in the game against Buffalo on Friday night. This creates a major hole to fill in the lineup because Faulk was playing 20+ minutes a night and playing a big role on the shutdown pair with Tim Gleason. Faulk was also playing at an exceptional level, so filling in his shoes isn't going to be easy.

The good news is that Faulk's injury doesn't appear to be too serious and he has been practicing with the team but getting through the next couple of games without him will be tough. Finding someone to replace him alongside Gleason will be even more difficult because the available options are Jamie McBain and Joe Corvo if Muller wants to use a right-handed shot on that pairing. Neither are ideal options but there is a chance that they can be serviceable if used in a short-term setting. Missing one defenseman shouldn't sink a team, but Faulk has been playing at a pretty high level this year, so his absence might be more damaging than some think.

Opponent scouting report and line combinations are after the jump.

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Checkers fall out of first place

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

For a good chunk of the season, the Charlotte Checkers had been sitting comfortably in first place in the AHL's Western Conference but their run at the top has come to an end as the top spot is now secured by the Texas Stars, who lead the Checkers by one point. This isn't due to a slump by the Checkers, though. They've won seven of their last 10 games and are still playing pretty well overall despite losing a few key pieces to the NHL. It's just that the Stars have been on a pretty incredible run lately and have been putting heat on Charlotte for a long time now. After the Checkers dropped two of their three games this past week, it allowed Texas to sneak up on them and take hold of the #1 spot in the West right at the All-Star Break.

The Checkers got some help this week with Marc-Andre Gragnani, Nicolas Blanchard and Jeremy Welsh returning to the lineup but unfortunately, their contributions weren't enough to keep them from losing two of three games. The funny thing is that Charlotte didn't play poorly in any of these games as they won the shot battle this week by a wide margin of 98-70, the goaltending was just very subpar. I usually don't like to put all of the blame on the netminders, but Justin Peters stopping only .865 of the shots he saw this week definitely played a huge factor, as did John Muse allowing 4 goals on 18 shots in the one game he started. Both had played terrifically the week before, so there isn't much of a need to panic. 

Charlotte didn't receive that much bad puck luck in regards to shooting percentage, as they converted on a little over 9% of their shots (about average), but I thought it was kind of interesting that they had eight different goal-scorers this past week and only one of them had more than one goal. The player in question here is Chris Terry, who is now one goal away from dethroning Zach Boychuk as the team's leading goal-scorere. A lot of weight is being put on his shoulders now with Boychuk, Dalpe and Bowman in Raleigh right now and he's doing a fine job carrying the load offensively. Terry also had 12 shots in Charlotte's three games played this past week, which is very encouraging to see because he was struggling to consistently get a lot of shots on goal for most of the year.

Luke Pither also had another big week as it looks like he honeymoon period with him and the Checkers will be lasting a little longer than some thought. Pither had himself a three-point game in Charlotte's 5-4 win over Abbotsford on Saturday afternoon and recorded a secondary assist on Andreas Nodl's goal in the loss to Norfolk on Wednesday night. I'm not sure how long Pither will continue to produce at this kind of level but he's been doing everything that's been asked of him and more thus far. It's given the Checkers offense a real nice boost.

Another "newer" player who really helped the Checkers this week was the aformentioned Andreas Nodl, who scored Charlotte's only goal against Norfolk on Wednesday and recorded an assist in the Abbotsford series. In addition to that, Nodl also recorded 11 shots on goal in three games. Nodl looked a bit out of place with the Checkers when he arrived the prior week but he seems to be fitting in more now, even though I'm sure he would rather be playing in the NHL.

Other big performers for Charlotte this week were Justin Shugg who had three assists, Riley Nash who had a pair of helpers and Michal Jordan who scored his fifth goal of the season and amassed nine shots on goal in three games. Brett Sutter and Marc-Andre Gragnani were both held off the scoresheet completely, which hasn't normally been the case for them this year.

The race for the top spot in the West is going to be pretty thrilling if both Charlotte and Texas can continue to play as well as they have lately. The Grand Rapids Griffins are also not far behind with 52 points in the standings, so most should be on the lookout for them, as well. The Checkers are slowly getting healthier and should see more of their better players return to the lineup as the season goes on. This will defintely lead to an interesting finish as we inch closer and closer to the playoffs.

Up next for Charlotte is a series with the Oklahoma City Barons, who are going to have a completely different roster compared to the last time the Checkers saw them. After that it's the San Antonio Rampage, who will also have a roster that will be missing a few players thanks to NHL call-ups. It should be a fun next few months.

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Thoughts from the first four games

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

One week of the 2013 NHL season is officially in the books and it's already been quite a roller coaster ride for the Carolina Hurricanes. Things started off about as bad as they could have in the first two games, losing two games that weren't even close but the team responded by winning both games in a back-to-back series against the Buffalo Sabres and the team now sits at .500 after four games. I've been tracking various sorts of data from this season and am very excited to do some analysis on it...but I can't just yet because so few games have been played and a four game sample size doesn't tell you a whole lot when it comes to predicting future success. It doesn't help that the Hurricanes have played in two games that were fueled by score effects because they were playing from behind.

When it's this early in the season, advanced metrics are mostly helpful to give the viewer a closer look at what happened during the games and they say a lot of good things about the Hurricanes right now. If you've been reading my scoring chance recaps then you will know that the Hurricanes have outshot and outchanced their opponents in all four games at even strength. They are also second in the league in Fenwick close and are producing over 40 (!) shots per 60 minutes during 5v5 play. Normally, this would be a sign of good things to come but again, it's only four games and that doesn't tell you much concerning the big picture. So the hard analysis will have to wait for another week or two but what I can tell you is that I really like what I've seen from the Canes thus far and that I'm feeling a lot better about this team than I did at this point of last season.

Some might recall that the Hurricanes got off to a similar start to the 2011-12 season where they dropped their first three games, went on a three game winning streak and then the wheels came off in November. They were also getting outshot and outplayed at even strength during that time and were buoyed by Cam Ward having a save percentage above .920 at even strength. Once that regressed, there wasn't much keeping the Hurricanes out of the cellar of the Eastern Conference because of how poorly they were playing at even strength. What are the chances of that happening again? If they continue to outshoot their opposition like they are doing now, they should be able to avoid a skid but that obviously isn't guaranteed. There are some reason to be confident, though and the main one is the offensive firepower this team has.

The duo of Eric Staal and Alex Semin have been producing a pretty great amount of shots and scoring chances on a nightly basis and the former is looking a lot more explosive than he did last year. Semin has only one goal on the season but it's hard to deny that he has had an impact, as he is consistently one of the first players leading the rush into offensive zone along with Eric Staal and has been on-ice for 25 even strength chances through four games. Staal hasn't gotten to play with a winger like this in years and the two could make a lethal combination once they fully get on the same page. The puck always seems to be in the opponent's zone when these two and Jiri Tlusty are on the ice, which is a very good thing.

As for Jordan Staal, he has been as advertised thus far and a reason why the Hurricanes offense is more potent than it was last season. Muller's been using Jordan against opposing team's top lines and he has been winning those matchups on a nightly basis and creating more chances than he is giving up. In addition to that, he is creating a considerable amount of offense to go with it. He has yet to score a goal but Jordan has been on-ice for 7.33 even strength chances per 15 minutes and has really developed some chemistry with Jeff Skinner on the second line the last couple of games. The fact that Jordan has been winning the tough matchups should also go a long way when it comes to freeing up his older brother's line to easier minutes. If Jordan can continue to do win these battles, then watch out. He is essentially doing what Brandon Sutter did for Carolina last year, only providing more offense and doing a much better job at driving hte play.

My biggest concerns for Carolina so far are all related to their defense, as they have given up a lot of shots and their goaltending hasn't been great. Dan Ellis managed to bail them out of a few situations on Friday night but Cam Ward has been lit up in two of his three starts, already giving up 12 goals this year. Not all the goals have been on him, as the defense has been prone to bad plays and they are giving up a lot of shots, especially on the PK. They also may have potentially lost their best defenseman, Justin Faulk, for a few games after sustaining an injury during Friday's game which is very, very bad news. Carolina has been producing enough offense to make this not appear to be an issue but the Canes aren't going to receive goaltending like they did from Ellis on Friday every game, so I'm not sure if a run-and-gun style of play will work in the long run.

The Canes lack a big, shutdown defenseman outside of Tim Gleason, but this might become less of an issue if they can continue to play well at even strength. Defensive zone coverage and shot blocking becomes less of an issue when the puck is in the opponent's zone over 50% of the time, so Carolina might be able to mask their defensive flaws by getting strong play from the forwards and continuing to keep the puck in their zone. I'm still not sure if they have the personnel or goaltending to run this system effectively but it should work better than a defensive, conservative sytle of play. It's a hell of a lot more fun to watch, too.

My outlook on the season is still set at "cautiously optimistic" for now but I've definitely seen a lot of encouraging things from this Canes team that make me think they could be in for a successful years but there are a few causes for concern, as well (*cough*penalty kill*cough*). We'll probably have a better idea of where they stand after another few weeks after they and everyone else have played more games. Hopefully the Canes keep up the strong play at even strength because to me, that is the most encouraging thing I've seen from the team this year.

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Game 4 Scoring Chances: Hurricanes at Sabres

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Those who are fans of exciting hockey were in for a treat if they watched any of the back-to-back series between the Carolina Hurricanes and Buffalo Sabres, because that is exactly what these two teams delivered. On Thursday, we saw a high-scoring affair that featured a lot of great action at both ends and last night, we saw a terrific goaltending duel between Dan Ellis and Ryan Miller. Both goaltenders recorded 40 saves, as they did all they could to at least get a point for their respective teams but in the end, it was Ellis and the Hurricanes who came out on top with a 3-1 win.

Saying that Ellis "stole" this game for Carolina would be somewhat of an accurate statement because he had to make 40 saves and came up huge a few times in the second period to keep the game tied at zero. That being said, I always felt like saying a goaltender "stealing" a game implies that the team in front of him played poorly, which wasn't the case with the Hurricanes last night. They also recorded over 40 shots, were only outchanced 21-20 and had the upper-hand at even strength by outshooting and outchancing Buffalo 34-30 and 16-15 respectively. Ellis played a huge role because the Canes could not get anything by Miller until the third period when it took a perfect shot by Alexander Semin to beat him top shelf. They also got a bit of a lucky bounce on Jay Harrison's game-winning goal but sometimes that's what it takes to beat a goalie who played as well as Miller did.

Ellis still deserved the first star of the game, though because the Canes would have likely been playing from behind for most of the game if it wasn't for his performance. They were playing without Justin Faulk for the entire third period, too so the fact that they were able to pick up the win last night is huge. The Canes did a lot of good things last night, though and we'll break those down along with the scoring chances after the jump.

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Game 3 Scoring Chances: Sabres at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Don't look now but the Hurricanes have outchanced their opponents in each of their first three games this year and they managed to do it last night without the "aid" of score effects, as they were playing with the score tied or with a lead for most of the contest. Yesterday's game was easily Carolina's most impressive performance in this still very young season. Not only did they get the win, they also recorded a season-high 22 scoring chances and outplayed Buffalo in all three areas.

They didn't completely mow the Sabres over at even strength (chances were only 15-13 during 5v5 play) but they more than made up for it on special teams by completely shutting down the Sabres powerplay. Losing the special teams battle was one of the main problems for the Hurricanes in their first two games and they did a great job of improving on it against Buffalo.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump.

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Eric Staal's hat trick leads Canes past Sabres 6-3

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Calling any game a "must win" situation is silly when it's only three games into the season but tonight was a game that Carolina really needed to win for their fan's sake. After starting the season with two blowout losses, scoring a grand total of two goals in the process, they really needed to play a good game tonight to at least lift the spirits of the fanbase and they did just that and more tonight. Not only were the fans treated to an exciting game, they got to see the Canes net six goals and see their captain Eric Staal record the 13th hat trick of his career. This was far from a perfect game, but this is exactly the kind of performance the Hurricanes needed to give their team a much needed confidence boost.

Everyone was wondering when Carolina's offense would break out and after scoring on only 2 of 78 shots in their first two games, they lit the lamp on 6 of the 38 shots they took tonight (technically 5 of 37 not counting Staal's empty netter). They also continued to win the shot battle tonight at even strength 27-24 and also outchanced Buffalo overall 22-20. It just goes to show you that shooting percentages can't stay low forever and good things will come as long as the team continues to win the shot battle and consistently produce quality chances on top of that. Going a perfect 6/6 on the PK and scoring a shorthanded goal also helped matters, as the Canes finally had a good special teams performance.

Carolina got a bit lucky tonight, which is great because nothing went right for them in the first two games, but they also had a very strong performance from just about all of their top players and earned every bit of this win.

Breakdown coming after the jump.

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Game 3 Preview: Sabres at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes
PNC Arena, 7 p.m.
TV: SportsSouth, MSG Buffalo

With every team having to deal with a shortened training camp, there are bound to be a lot of roster and lineup changes throughout these first few weeks. Carolina's head coach, Kirk Muller made a few adjustments to the lineup before Tuesday nights game by subbing Jeremy Welsh and Kevin Westgarth in for Zach Boychuk and Zac Dalpe but the move he made today was much bigger. In an attempt to get Jamie McBain into the lineup, Joe Corvo will be sitting tonight in favor of the young defenseman which surprised some fans because many thought it would be Bobby Sanguinetti sitting instead of Corvo.

My take on this situation is that the Carolina coaching staff still wants to evaluate Sanguinetti since they didn't have much time to do so in training camp. He has looked bad so far, but it's hard to judge a defenseman's body of work with only two games, so this kind of puts them in a tough spot. He and Corvo play similar games on the third pairing, so I don't see much harm in keeping him in the lineup tonight in their first game of a back-to-back series against the Buffalo Sabres.

It's too early in the season to call this a "must win" game for Carolina, but since their first two games went so poorly, it would really do a lot for the fanbase to win these next two games or at least have a good showing in them. Getting outscored 2-9 clearly isn't the best way to start the season.

Opponent scouting report and line combinations coming after the jump.

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