On the stat sheet, last night's 4-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens looks like a game that the Hurricanes could/should have won but ended up losing thanks to running into a hot goaltender. They put up 43 shots against Carey Price but came away with only two goals while Montreal had only 28 shots and were outchanced 21-15. It's true that the Hurricanes had a huge advantage in shots and looked dominant at times last night, but Price was not their only problem. They may have had a chance at getting at least a point in this game if Price didn't play as well as he did but it would be a stretch to consider it anything more than that.

I mentioned in my recap last night that this game resembled the Hurricanes season because it came with many highs and lows and the scoring chance summary agrees with that sentiment.

Sometimes the most frustrating losses are the ones when the team plays a solid game but ends up with nothing to show for it because of a few bone-handed mistakes. This was the case for the Hurricanes in their 4-2 loss to the Canadiens tonight. They outshot Montreal 43-28 and played arguably their best 20 minutes of the season in the second period but ended up taking the loss due to a bad start, ineffective special teams play and a few brutal defensive lapses. In other words, some of the same mistakes that have been plaguing this team all season long. The common thought among fans right now is probably something along the lines of "it's been 20+ games, they shouldn't be making these mistakes now! What is wrong with this team?"

Let's step away from the ledge here for a second and remind ourselves that the Canes won their previous four games and looked dominant at times tonight. On top of that, they were playing a very strong Montreal club, so things could have been much worse (think the Washington game) if this team's recent win streak was indeed just smoke & mirrors. Are there things to be concerned about? Absolutely, but it's not enough for me to say that it's time for the team to get a complete facelift because they ended up losing by two goals. There were many encouraging signs to go along with the causes for concern and this was far from the team's worst performance this season.

That being said, the team's performance tonight was sort of a microcosm of how their season has gone, as it was filled with a lot of highs and lows.

Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes
7 p.m., PNC Arena
TV: Sports South, TSN-Habs

Carolina will be coming into tonight's game against the Canadiens in a similar situation to the last time they took on Montreal. If you don't remember (it's probably better if you don't anyway), the Canes were riding a three-game win streak head into that game but suffered a barrage of injuries over the span of four days and ended up getting shut out 3-0 by the Habs. This time, Carolina will be riding a four game win streak but are still missing quite a few players from their lineup including goaltender Cam Ward.

The injuries didn't seem to stop them from taking care of the Sabres on Tuesday night, but the Canes will be taking on a much better team this evening in the Canadiens. Many of the problems that were surrounding the Habs last season appear to be gone as the Habs are currently sitting atop of the Eastern Conference and have won six of their last 10 games.

Carolina has been outshot and outchanced in three of the four games they've won, but they have also established early leads in all of those games so  I'm not ready to say that it is a problem just yet. However, it is worth noting that three of their last four wins came against bad teams in Florida and Buffalo, so tonight's game will be a much tougher test. Carolina is still pretty banged up, but most of the team's best skaters healthy, so I think their performance against Montreal will give us an idea of how good they are/can be.

The Hurricanes have gone through a lot of lineup changes this season but I don't think any position has been more of a revolving door as the right wing spot on the second line. With Tuomo Ruutu out until at least mid-April, Kirk Muller has tried out just about every weapon in his arsenal to find a suitable linemate for Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. The second line has had it's ups and downs this year, as both Staal and Skinner have done a terrific job of driving possession while playing against tough competition, but finding another winger to help them has been a struggle.

Jordan Staal has been able to make the second line a good territorial unit even with sub-par wingers, but he can't turn dust into gold and make it a scoring line with just anyone. We saw this in the five games that Skinner was hurt. When Skinner is healthy, he and Staal have been somewhat dangerous and effective offensively, but they've struggled in the last couple of games when Tim Wallace was placed on the other wing, which could be a sign that these two can't do all the work by themselves and need a more consistent linemate. The first line might be lighting things up now, but I still believe that they will cool down eventually and when that does, the other lines are going to need to pitch in, which is why filling this hole on the second line will be important.

You could argue that Patrick Dwyer provided the Hurricanes with a nice stop-gap for the second line until Ruutu returns but he was eventually demoted to the third line and has since developed some nice chemistry with Jussi Jokinen & Riley Nash on that unit. Jokinen was another player who got an audition on this line as a winger and while he was able to drive the play well, he wasn't scoring and ended up being demoted. Muller probably doesn't want to mess with the chemistry of that line for now, so I guess Dwyer & Jokinen are no longer options. Chad LaRose and Zac Dalpe would also be options for the second line but they are both injured now which leaves spare parts like Tim Wallace and Drayson Bowman who have been on the fourth line more times than not.

I know that coaches don't like to mess with chemistry, but I think having a good second line is more important than keeping a solid third line together. So let's pretend that all of the players I listed above (save for Dalpe since he's out indefinitely) are fair game for the second line. Which players on the roster is the best fit with Skinner and Staal? This means that they have to be at least decent offensively, play competently against opposing team's top lines and be able to drive the play forward. I'm sure that many people reading this already know who their answer is and have their own opinions on certain players on the team. There's nothing wrong with that, but a better way to go about it is to take a closer look at each player's performance on the ice.

So, what I'm going to do is look at how each player has performed in all three zones without mentioning their names and differ to the readers on who they want to see on the second line from the available options. No biases or previous opinions here, just the facts.

Following a hockey team can be a grueling task at times since there are many twists and turns that come with the territory. At the beginning of the season, you always tell yourself that every team is going to experience good and bad stretches (unless you're the Chicago Blackhawks) and it's best to stay rational through it all. Yet, whenever a winning or losing streak of 3-5 games occurs, the vibe among the fanbase is nothing but joy or panic. There is either a lot of praise about confidence and leadership whenever things are going right and when they don't, it's nothing but finger-pointing at certain players and assumptions about what is wrong with said team. We saw plenty of this in Carolina last season with the team's struggles but similar things have resurfaced this season, too. 

The final results look good for the Hurricanes, as they currently sit atop of the Southeast Division with a seven point lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning but the road to get here has been a little uneven to stay the least. The Canes started off the year dropping their first two games, giving a lot of fans a very pessimistic outlook until they swept a back-to-back series against the Buffalo Sabres. Following that, Carolina suffered a tough loss against Boston followed by a win over Ottawa and a road trip where they went 4-1-1. There was a lot of talk about how the team was coming together then and how they were on the verge of possibly doing something special this year.

Then the wave of injuries happened. The Hurricanes save five different players go on IR (three of whom being defensemen) and the team would then drop four of their next five games with the four losses coming in ugly fashion. Injuries are tough to deal with but every team goes through them and the Canes lack of depth was showing, which led to a lot of soothsayers coming out of the woodwork. The team suddenly had character issues and "no drive to win" because of four bad games. They would then go on a four game winning streak after a few players returned off the IR and now all is well again.  What will happen in the next five games remains to be seen, but it will be interesting to see the stories that emerge if the Canes go on another skid or continue their winning ways.

The fact of the matter is that no matter how bad or good a stretch of five games is, it's a very small portion of what is a long season. Yes, it's a shortened season and every game means more with there being no inter-conference play, but everyone has to remember not completely overreact to what happens in a small sample size. If the Canes go on a Chicago-like run or a Columbus-like fall, then we can start freaking out but until either of those happens, let's keep a cool head about things.

It's pretty interesting to see how much fans emotions have swung back in forth in the last week based on the Hurricanes play because the team's underlying numbers have been somewhat constant these past nine or ten games, only with completely different results.

Carolina's ability to control the scoring chances at even strength has only been slightly better during this brief winning streak than it was during their rough patch. The difference was that more pucks were going in for them at even strength and their goaltenders went from playing from below replacement to an elite level. As fun as it has been to watch this team the last four games, it's doubtful that they will continue to get this lucky in terms of both shooting and save percentage. In fact, you can even make the argument that it's a little concerning that they've been on the losing end of the scoring chance battle even with a reasonably healthy lineup but this is only four games and the Canes held a big lead in all of them, so score effects definitely played a role there.

When looking at the big picture, the Hurricanes appear to be in decent shape even if they've been playing a little over their heads in their last four games.

Carolina is still on the right side of things, but the percentages might catch up to them soon and their scoring rate will decline if they continue to be only a 50-51% team at even strength. I'm not sure what will happen to the team once they begin to score less, but I'm sure the narratives that will be drawn out of it will be fun. The thing to remember here is that good and bad stretches happen over the course of the season even when a team is playing well, and the Canes have done that for most of the year. If they can continue to at least stay above 50% during even strength play, then I don't think there will be much to panic about in Raleigh unless a long losing streak happens, and I mean a long one. Not a rough patch lasting 4-5 games because there have been plenty of teams who have weathered through those in the past.

Yesterday, I wrote about my concerns of the Hurricanes first line experiencing some regression because they are currently producing at a ridiculous rate that is boosted by a high on-ice shooting percentage. these three continued to laugh in the face of even strength shooting regression last night by producing three goals en route to a 4-3 win over the Buffalo Sabre. To make me look even more foolish, all three goals they scored came at even strength which gives Eric Staal a share of the league lead in even strength points this season with 24. While I do believe the Law of Averages will kick in for these three eventually, it's hard not to enjoy what they are doing right now because it's been a long time sice the Hurricanes had a first line this powerful. It's not only just that they are producing a lot of chances on a nightly basis, but more of the fact that they seem to be a threat to score whenever they're out there. Part of that is due to high shooting percentages, but they are still a threat regardless.

As for tonight's game, the first line certainly came to play as Staal & Semin were on-ice for six of Carolina's 10 even strength chances, but the rest of the team wasn't at their best. Part of the reason for this is because the team had a two goal lead for most of the game and opted to sit back while the Sabres tried to mount a comeback. They ended up getting outshot 40-28 and outchanced 21-16, but the Sabres did most of their damage in the third period while playing catch-up. I thought the Hurricanes had control of the game while it was close and whenever the Sabres did get to within a goal, the Canes responded with one of their own.

This is the second game in a row where Carolina has been involved in a score-effects driven contest and ended up on the wrong end of the chance/shot ledger, but they were also playing with a big lead so it's nothing worth worrying about yet. Obviously I would rather have the Hurricanes play stronger with a lead rather than just sit back and simply try not to lose, but they managed to get the job done in the end. Let's see if their strategy changes if they get off to a similar start against Montreal or New Jersey in the next couple of games.

Take a look at the league leaders in even strength point production and you'll see a few familiar faces as Carolina's first line of Eric Staal, Alexander Semin and Jiri Tlusty are in the top-30 in even strength points per 60 minutes. Staal leads the pack with an insane 4.08 even strength points per 60 minutes, a rate that puts him higher than the likes of Sidney Crosby, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Getzlaf and Steven Stamkos. Anyone who follows hockey knows that this line has been fantastic for the Hurricanes this season but I don't think people have any idea of just how good they've been. 

In addition to their ridiculous even strength scoring rates, Staal has been held without a point in only five games this season and has seven multi-point games. His current scoring pace would give him 97 points in a full-82 game season while Semin & Tlusty's scoring rates would give them 78 and 66 points respectively. The three have different skillsets but they compliment each other well. Both Staal and Semin have been terrific at winning battles along the boards and it has helped free up space for Tlusty, which has let to him having 10 goals and 17 points in 21 games. Meanwhile, Semin has shined as a great play-maker and Staal has been doing most of the bull-work down low to score from the dirty areas. They've been quite a lethal combination ever since Kirk Muller put them on the same line and they've contributed to 43% of Carolina's goals this year.

What are the chances of them continuing to produce at this level, though? A quick look at their underlying numbers doesn't paint an optimistic picture for them because all three are barely winning the shot battle at even strength and have on-ice shooting percentage north of 14%, which is normally a sign that they have gotten quite lucky this season and will probably cool down soon. For reference, there have been only two players since 2007-08 to maintain an EV on-ice shooting percentage of over 14%. One of them was Daniel Sedin and the other was Darryl Boyce, so one of the best scorers in the league and a player who is never on-ice for a lot of shots on goal in a year. Other players who have posted high on-ice shooting percentage in recent seasons include Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell, Jordan Eberle, Paul Statsny, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Getzlaf, Sidney Crosby, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgenii Malkin and Alex Tanguay. Basically guys who are elite scorers/play-makers or those who got to play on a line with them.

It's possible that the Canes first line can continue to post a high shooting percentage in a 48-game season, but the ability to maintain a shooting percentage above 14% for a long period of time is very rare and given what we know about Staal and Semin, both have been able to elevate the shooting percentage of their linemates but they aren't in Crosby/Sedin/Stamkos territory. In other words, there's a good chance that they end up having great offensive seasons, but Staal probably will not continue to produce four points for every 60 minutes he plays. I know that he has a 100-point season under his belt, but expecting that kind of production from him (and almost any player) is unreasonable.

How much will this line taper off is a good question because while their point-production might drop off, some fans may not even notice it because of how ridiculous they are performing right now. Remember, this is a line that's producing a almost every game and that probably isn't sustainable. Their not-so-great underlying numbers going by shot totals suggest that they could be in for some major regression, but their scoring chance numbers are a little more optimistic, especially Tlusty's.
 

This line is getting outshot on a lot of nights, but they have been doing a great job of winning the scoring chance battle despite that. However, the only thing this protects is their high plus-minus because the amount of chances they are producing per 15 minutes is kind of low for the type of minutes they are getting. Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner have actually been producing more offense with less ice-time but haven't received the same amount of shooting luck, so these three are still prone to suffer some regression with their goal regression. The only exception being Alexander Semin, who is the only member of this line to not have a shooting percentage above 10%. He might actually be on the verge of scoring more goals with how low his personal shooting percentage is.

Keep in mind that this is all even strength production and Carolina's powerplay hasn't received much luck at all this season. You could say that they aren't creating any of their luck because of how bad it has looked at times this year, but there is some reasons to be optimistic here. Yes, the Canes powerplay is in the bottom-five in terms of success rate, but they are 16th in 5v4 shots per 60 minutes. That isn't great, but it certainly isn't "worst in the NHL" bad either. On the flipside, opposing goalies have stopped .912 of the 5v4 shots they face when Carolina is on the powerplay, which shows that they could be due for some bounces to go their way here. Staal, Semin and Tlusty have combined for five PPGs and their shooting percentages on the powerplay aren't ridiculously high either, so it's possible that they could make up for things on the powerplay if their even strength production takes a fall.

Luck is a tough thing to grasp in hockey becuase people always seem to come up with reasons as to why high percentages won't regress back to the mean. I do think that anything can happen in a shortened year, but it's been proven in recent history that not many teams have been able to shoot at over 14% at even strength when a certain player is on the ice. It doesn't matter how good this player is or how they "constantly shoot from scoring areas" because historical evidence has shown that high shooting percentages eventually come down at some point in time. Staal, Semin and Tlusty are not immune to this, so it's unlikely that they will continue to produce at this level for the rest of the year.

That doesn't mean that they won't continue to play good hockey, though. Like I said earlier, they are producing at a very ridiculous rate now, especially Staal, and while they will probably cool a little, these three can still perform well offensively without the aid of a ridiculous even strength shooting percentage. Just not at a 95-100 point pace.

Hurricanes fans are fearing the worst right now, as it was announced earlier this morning that their goaltender Cam Ward will miss the next 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain. Things certainly could have been a lot worse judging from how bad the injury looked when it happened, but at the very least, it's good to know that this isn't anything season-ended or career threatening. That's the good news, the bad news is that the Hurricanes are going to be without their starting goaltender for possibly the rest of the season and that's a big piece to lose no matter what team you are. Ward wasn't having a great start to the year, but his last five games have been terrific and he has stolen more games for the Hurricanes over his career than he has lost.

What many are wondering now is whether or not losing Ward for the next two months will ruin Carolina's season. To put it bluntly, no. Ward is a very good goaltender, but he is not elite and this has been restated countless times. His performance since 2007 has ranged from above average to great and his even strength save percentage was at only .917 this season, which is slightly below average. The one thing that Ward provided was stability in net since he has been the goaltender in Raleigh for so long. He isn't Pekka Rinne or Henrik Lundqvist, so the Hurricanes just need to get average to above average goaltending out of Dan Ellis and Justin Peters the rest of the way and they should be in good shape. 

The question then becomes whether or not Ellis/Peters can provide the Hurricanes with that.

The Hurricanes did themselves a huge favor this weekend by picking up two wins against the Florida Panthers because it now gives them a bit of a cushion on their lead in the Southeast Division. Things are still pretty tight, though as the Winnipeg Jets trail them by only four points and Canes have recently come out of a stretch where they lost three divisional games. Carolina's record is padded thanks to a 10-3-1 record against the rest of the Eastern Conference but constantly giving games away to divisional opponents is going to allow other teams to stay in the race, which is why their lead is far from safe. Add in the fact that the Canes have 11 divisional games left and things could easily turn out bad for Carolina if they continue to struggle in the division, which is why getting two wins over Florida was huge.
 

Last time we checked the standings based on how many points each team has earned and how many games they had remaining, the Hurricanes and Lightning were in the best positions to win the Southeast with both needing to gain points in about 56-57% of their games to reach 55 points. Since then, the Hurricanes have earned eight points in seven games while the Lightning won only one of six and earned only two points. Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Jets have climbed their way back into the mix by earning eight points in six games, taking over second place in the division from Tampa Bay. They are obviously in a better position now but it's only slightly improved compared to where it was a couple weeks ago..

After Carolina put on a show against Florida at home on Saturday night, fans were treated to a slightly less-thrilling affair the following night in the rematch between the two teams. The pattern of the game was a bit similar with the Canes getting a 3-0 lead and the Panthers playing catchup for the rest of the game, but this was was much less eventful and Carolina didn't even come close to dominating Florida like they did in the previous matchup. In fact, the Panthers were the ones who had the edge in even strength play last night, as they outshot the Canes 33-19 at even strength and outchanced them 16-12 overall. Part of the reason was because of Carolina having a 3-0 lead for 30+ minutes, but the Hurricanes weren't exactly controlling the play at even strength for most of the game and the goaltending tandem of Cam Ward & Dan Ellis bail them out a couple times in the first and third periods respectively. 

Getting a three goal cushion early in the game is always a good thing but both goaltenders had to do their share of work to make sure that the Panthers didn't pull off a comeback.