Hurricanes fall to Rangers in a shootout

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

A bad loss can cause a coach to react in certain ways and Kirk Muller was apparently very unhappy with his team's performance in Saturday's 4-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, so he decided to shake things up a bit for tonight's game against the New York Rangers. The result? Another loss, but one where the team got a point and played well for various segments. There will probably be some people who are satisfied with this team getting a point and only losing because of a skills competition, but there were a lot of things to be concerned about tonight and it goes beyond just the fact that the team lost.

There have been a lot of people getting on the Hurricanes for "not playing a full 60 minutes" and this game will be one that a lot will point to as evidence of that. Carolina started off this game on a very strong note, outshooting the Rangers 14-8 and dominating them territorially in just about every facet. They were rewarded for their efforts with a 1-0 lead and could have easily gotten a regulation win if they kept up this level of play. This obviously did not happen, as the Rangers took over the game for the remaining 45 minutes. After getting outshot 14-6 in the first period, the Blueshirts outshot Carolina 30-13 for the rest of the game and had multiple opportunities to take the lead but could never capitalize. Part of the reason for this was due to the spectacular play of Dan Ellis and the Rangers inability to hit the net on several of their chances. Either way, Carolina was very, very lucky to come away with a point after this game.

Imagine the meltdown against Washington last week only without the Canes getting scored on in the final five minutes. That would be somewhat of an accurate description of how this game went. Muller definitely had this team ready to play in the first period but either they ran out of gas early or just fell asleep for the final two periods. With the struggles they have been going through lately, it's easy to forget that the Rangers are actually a very good and talented team who can make you pay if you take them lightly. The Canes were able to avoid getting burned tonight and regained their lead in the Southeast thanks to the charity point . Still a lot of work to do before this team is completely up to standards, though and they'll have to get back to work tomorrow against Florida. 

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Hurricanes CHL Prospect Update: NHLE Values

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Canadian Hockey League's regular season ended this weekend and some good news for Hurricanes fans is that many of their prospect's respective teams made the post-season and will have a chance to put themselves on the map this spring. Some of them are already well-known in the hockey community, but the playoffs are always a great opportunity for a player to create a lot of publicity for himself if he has a good showing or a big week. Hurricanes fans should be pretty excited to see what Ryan Murphy, Victor Rask, Brock McGinn, Keegan Lowe and others can do in the playoffs, but before we start to think about that, let's take a look at how they performed in the regular season.

What we are going to do to analyze their performance is look at how what they did in juniors would equate to if they played in the NHL through Behind The Net's equivalency values. Each league is said to have a different level of difficulty compared to the NHL and the junior leagues have the lowest (.29-.30) because it's just kids under 21 playing against each other.

There are a ton of high scoring games in junior hockey and thus, a lot of players with gaudy stat-lines which they probably wouldn't put up in the NHL at their age. NHL equivalency values are a good way to factor for this and while they aren't perfect, they do a solid job of bringing context into a player's performance in different leagues. You might remember me using this during the lockout to gauge the performance of the Hurricanes players overseas and we're going to do the same thing with their junior hockey prospects.

The numbers aren't going to be very impressive since they don't have many top-tier CHL prospects in their system, but their development is still promising.

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Southeast Division Update: Winnipeg leapfrogs Carolina for first place

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Hurricanes weren't even close to being in a "must-win" situation last week, but they did have a chance to take control of the Southeast Division by defeating Washington twice and Tampa Bay on the road. They ended up winning only one of those three games and have now let the surging Winnipeg Jets take over first place in the division. Some might say that this is a sign that the Hurricanes need to basically "win-out" the rest of the season in order to make the playoffs, but would you believe it if I said the Winnipeg Jets need to win more of their remaining games than the Hurricanes to get to 55 points? Because this is true.

Standings watching is hard to do at this time of the year and it can make people think a situation is far more serious than it appears. Yes, Winnipeg has one more point in the standings than the Hurricanes. They've also played two more games and still have to play Carolina three more times before the end of the season. If Carolina is still in the same position at that time of the year, then this is when we can talk "must-win" and start to panic. Now? Not so much. Carolina fans just need to hope that the last week was only a bump in the road for the team and that they can go better than .500 for the rest of the season.

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Game 27 Inside the Numbers: Hurricanes at Lightning

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

A 4-1 loss where the losing team manages to create only 11 total scoring chances is pretty bad and that's what happened to the Hurricanes last night against Tampa Bay. It's easy to write off this game as a poor effort by the entire team, but I think that's just a lazy way of analyzing the game. There were several players on the Hurricanes who worked hard and had good games last night, so I don't want to throw the entire team under the bus. The problem was that they didn't get enough out of them, they weren't scoring and the bottom-half of the roster didn't give the team any production at all.

Of the 22 shots on goal the Hurricanes produced last night, only two of them came from their bottom-six and they only got one scoring chance out of those players, too. When you are leaning on two lines to do almost everything, it has an adverse effect on the rest of the team. Notice how three of Tampa Bay's four goals came from their depth players. Those guys were winning their battles all night long against the Hurricanes bottom-six and ended up getting rewarded for it while the Hurricanes were counting on the top of their roster to do just about everything. The Canes top-six is normally good enough to carry the team through a tough game but it wasn't the case last night and their depth problems came back to haunt them.

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Tampa Bay overpowers Carolina in 4-1 win

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

In any given season, there are always teams who have each other's number. Last year, the Hurricanes had the Bruins number, sweeping them in a four game series and this year, it seems the Lightning have played their best games of the season against the Hurricanes. After their 4-1 win tonight, the Lightning have won all three of their matchups against Carolina this year and have outscored them a whopping 13-4 in those games. If that's not a sign of dominance then I'm not sure what is. You would think that the Hurricanes would look to change this trend tonight after letting at least one point slip away on Thursday night against Washington but they ended up taking a blowout loss tonight and didn't look good at all during the game. 

There are going to be a lot of people questioning this team's effort and compete level tonight, because of how lopsided the final score ended up but I honestly thought the effort was there tonight. For the most part, this team worked hard tonight, tried to penetrate the Lightning's defense and played a full-sixty minutes. The scoreboard didn't show it, but I thought the Hurricanes put in a good effort tonight. Their execution, however, was very poor. Carolina was able to gain the zone numerous times and control the pace of play, but the Lightning knew what they were trying to do most of the time and were able to defend them well.

Then the times that the Hurricanes actually got through the Lightning's defense, they were either overly hesitant (see Jordan Staal passing on an odd-man rush instead of just firing it at the net) or had a few bounces go against them (see Patrick Dwyer's tip chance in front of the net going just wide). Nights like this happen and unfortunately for the Hurricanes, it had to come on a game after they blew a 2-0 lead to another divisional opponent.

I don't disagree that Carolina was far too deliberate with their game plan and should have adjusted after the second period, but as far as effort goes, I think they showed that tonight. They just did not execute well at all and will need to regroup before taking on a struggling New York Rangers squad this Monday. Carolina was in a good spot heading into this week, but the more they lose, the slimmer their room for error becomes and that's becoming even more stressful with the Winnipeg Jets winning eight of their last 10. Thankfully, the door is still wide open for them but they need to play a lot better than they did tonight for it to remain there. 

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The book on Adam Hall

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Hurricanes added some depth to their bottom-six today by acquiring forward Adam Hall off waivers. Hall has been in the league for 10 seasons and has spent the last four years with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He has a few 10+ goals seasons under his belt, but his best assets are his defensive play and faceoff prowess. He will play his first game for the Hurricanes tonight against the team who just put him on waivers only 24 hours ago, which will make for an interesting storyline.

Hall is a very useful player but asking where he fits in the Hurricanes lineup is a good question. The Jordan Staal line handling most of the tough matchups means that the Hurricanes don't have much use for "shutdown forwards" unless they want to tilt the ice in their top-six's favor. This is why Andreas Nodl struggled to find a place in the lineup and was eventually sent down to Charlotte before he got hurt. Hall is somewhat of a comparable player to him, but does that mean he will suffer the same fate? Not quite. Hall has a few qualities that make him more valuable than your general replacement level player.

After the jump, we'll talk about what Hall can bring to the team and where he might fit in the Canes lineup.

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Who sits after Pitkanen returns?

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Hurricanes have a couple of decisions to make regarding their current defense corps and no, I am not talking about them making a trade. This issue is a little more immediate, as Joni Pitkanen will be returning to the lineup soon and the Hurricanes are going to have to figure out who will sit to make room for him in the lineup. The team started the year with seven defensemen on the roster with Joe Corvo, Jamie McBain and Bobby Sanguinetti rotating as the healthy scratches. Some might say that it will be an easy decision to sit one of those three when Pitkanen returns but it won't be that simple. Injuries have allowed these three to get into the lineup almost every night and they have been playing well, so deciding which one will sit out in favor of Pitkanen might be a tough call.

Corvo has stepped up to top-four minutes the last few weeks so there is no way he will be sitting out while Bobby Sanguinetti has been steaidly improving with every game so it might be hard to sit him right now. Then there's Jamie McBain, who is a long-time defense partner of Pitkanen and also coming off a couple of very good games. Pitkanen will be an upgrade over anyone he replaces with how great his performance has been this year, but finding the right spot for him in the lineup could be a challenge.

This is where taking an analytical approach would help. Out of all the defensemen on the roster, who is the most replaceable and should sit after Pitkanen's comes back? We will answer those questions after the jump.

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Game 26 Inside the Numbers: Capitals at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Sometimes the most frustrating losses come after your teams plays a relatively good game but makes a few mistakes that end up costing them dearly. This was the case with the Hurricanes loss to the Washington Capitals last night. Save for a weak start to the second period, I don't think anyone is going to be questioning this team's effort last night since they were the better team for most of the game and did just about everything they could to tie things up at the end. They put up 38 shots against Washington, over 20 of them being scoring chances and got a great performance out of their top line which should have been enough to win the game.

I've talked a lot about how the Canes have some room for mistakes with their lead in the Southeast Division and they had plenty of breathing room heading into the first intermission with a 2-0 lead last night. However, the more mistakes you make, the slimmer the margin of error becomes and everything gets magnified. This is what happened when the Hurricanes came out flat for the first five minutes of the second period and allowed the Caps to get back into the game. Now any error has a chance of resulting in a tie game and that's exactly what followed Eric Staal's high-sticking penalty at the end of the second period as Alex Ovechkin scored on the ensuing Caps powerplay. Caps goaltender Michal Neuvirth was also playing at the top of his game, which meant that the margin of error was now at zero and the next mistake could end up costing the Hurricanes the game.

One bad line change later and the Hurricanes found themselves down 3-2 and getting no points out of a game that they could have easily gotten one in. This loss can mean very little if the Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay, but they are going to look at this game and see it as a missed opportunity to pad their lead in the Southeast Division. Whether or not it really hurts them at the end of the year remains to be seen, but it can easily be pointed to as one of those games the team let slip away from them if they do finish out of the race.

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Carolina surrenders two goal lead in loss to Washington

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

In the big picture, this loss probably doesn't mean a whole lot in terms of how it affects Carolina's season. It's only their second loss in the span of two weeks and they can regain their lead in the Southeast with a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday. The NHL has a long season and losses are going to happen so there's a good chance that this is just a slight bump in the road for the Hurricanes. While that is true, the way they lost tonight's game to the Washington Capitals was infuriating to watch for the fans, coaching staff and the players.

The Hurricanes started out this game with all guns blazing, getting two early goals in the first period and throttling the Caps in all areas. It looked like this would be another game where the Hurricanes would coast their way to an easy victory but it didn't go down like that. Naturally, they drifted back into a defensive shell in the second period and it ended up costing them with the Caps fourth line catching the Hurricanes napping and scoring to make it a one-goal game. After that, the Canes woke up a little bit and were at least able to limit the Caps chances and play strong defensively. The whole team just looked off compared to their performance in the first period, though. They were fanning on shots, not connecting on their passes and had serious trouble adjusting to the Capitals forecheck which resulted in some downright ugly breakout attempts.

All of it culminated at the end of the second period when Eric Staal was sent to the sinbin for a high-sticking call and the Capitals made them pay for it on the ensuing powerplay to begin the third. Once the score was tied, the Canes started to wake up and play more like they did in the first period and had quite a few opportunities to take the lead. All of which were for naught thanks to the play of Washington goaltender Michal Neuvirth who turned aside 15 shots in the third frame alone and 36 total on the night. Blowing the two goal lead aside, the Hurricanes played well enough to at least earn a point against Washington tonight...until they were guilty of a terrible line change which resulted in a breakaway for Alexander Ovechkin and the Caps were just barely able to get the game-winning goal across the line to seal up a victory.

This was a prime example of a team giving a game away to the opponent. The Hurricanes were in full control for the first 20 minutes but allowed the Caps to get back into because they took their foot off the gas pedal. I don't think there was anything wrong with how they played in the third period overall, but the margin of error is slim in a tie game and the Hurricanes committed a brutal mistake at the absolute worst time possible and it ended up costing them. This was a game where the Canes could have easily gotten at least one point in the standings in but they ended up going home with nothing and have nobody but themselves to blame.

It's really a shame to see a mostly solid game by the Canes go to waste because of a few dumb mistakes and it's especially frustrating when it happens in a divisional game, but they can partially erase this loss with a win over Tampa Bay on Saturday night. They will just need to get these mistakes out of their system.

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Hurricanes sign Keegan Lowe to entry-level contract

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

There is going to be no shortage of young talent in training camp this fall as the Hurricanes followed up their signing of Danny Biega yesterday by inking 19-year-old defenseman Keegan Lowe to a three-year entry-level contract today. Lowe was the Hurricanes 3rd round pick in the 2011 draft and is currently playing his fourth season with the Edmonton Oil Kings of the Western Hockey League. Lowe will be eligible to play in Charlotte once the Oil Kings' season is over, but that could be awhile from now with the team currently sit at the top of their division in the WHL and heading towards the playoffs.

Keegan is the son of former Edmonton Oiler great Kevin Lowe and likely gets a fair bit of publicity since he's currently playing junior hockey in the city where his father won five Stanley Cups. He is currently the captain of the Oil Kings and is having a career season in terms of goals (15) and points (30) so his development is coming along very nicely. There is probably a lot expected from Lowe in Edmonton but he is far from the best blue-liner on his team and is more depended on for a leadership role as the captain. He also has a presence as a tough guy, as he has racked up a lot of fighting majors and a ton of penalty minutes in his junior hockey career. A part of the season where Lowe really shined was when Edmonton lost a few of their best defensemen to the World Junior Championships, forcing him to play more minutes and he was able to thrive in them, putting up some solid counting numbers. 

Admitelly, I haven't seen much of Lowe this season aside from highlights, but he tends to be all over the place judging from those clips. Scouting reports peg him as more of a shutdown-type player, but there have been quite a few times where I've seen him roaming in front of the net on the powerplay. He also has quite a big shot from the point and has really shown it off this season with his 15 goals. His offense is something that scouting reports haven't talked about it a lot, but that part of his game has been coming around this season it seems. It will be nice if Edmonton makes it all the way to the Memorial Cup again so Hurricanes fans can get an even closer look at him.

Lowe will turn 20 at the end of the Month so he is still very young, but it's possible that he could be in the pros starting this fall. He was drafted more as a "project" but his development has been coming along very nicely if the reports out of Edmonton are any indication. I would expect him to be a candidate to make the Checkers roster out of camp or at least get the 10-game tryout look. I always say that you can never have too many young defensemen in your team's system, so getting both Lowe and Biega signed was a great move by Jim Rutherford and the Hurricanes.

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