Tonight's recap will be a little different from the usual form because I was in attendance for the Canes-Capitals game and obviously could not log chances, so I will get those done as soon as the game becomes available on NHL Game Center live (which should be Tuesday night). Instead, I'm going to talk about my experience as an opposing fan in the enemy environment and give my thoughts on the game from the 403 section of the Verizon Center.

Here's what my view was like.

You might be a little high up, but there is truly no bad seat in the 400 level at Verizon Center.

It's kind of tough being a Canes fan in Maryland because there's only so many times a year I can watch my team, which is why I always try to make at least one trip to Chinatown per year to watch the Hurricanes take on the Capitals. I haven't been able to go as often as I would like since tickets are hard to come by (last time was in 2009 when the Canes won 5-1) but I do my best and was glad that I was able to see the Canes tonight. This game didn't have as good of a result as my last visit, but it was still a great effort and one of the few times this year that Carolina registered over 40 shots. Not a loss to hang our heads about, but I really thought the Canes could have gotten out of DC with at least a point. Tomas Vokoun had other ideas.

More thoughts after the jump

Tonight's dramatic 3-2 win over the Bruins reminded me a lot of some games that the Hurricanes would win last season. They had a lot of trouble creating offense and were kept in their own zone for most of the game but what kept them in it was the great play of Cam Ward. He stopped 33 of 35 shots, 21 of which came from a dangerous scoring area and looked a lot more like the goalie we had hoped to see for most of the year. That isn't to say that he was the only reason the Canes won this game because there are few other things you could point at. All three of Carolina's goals happened because forwards were able to get in front of Tim Thomas and create traffic. A couple of timely turnovers (see Brandon Sutter on Dwyer's goal) and instances of the Canes winning battles along the boards (Brent vs. Corvo on Faulk's goal) also helped but for the most part, it was Ward who kept the game in reach. Getting outshot 33-21 at even strength isn't going to win you a ton of games, so let's enjoy this win but not get used to it. Hey, whatever makes us 3-0 against the defending champs is fine in my book.

With every team now playing at least 41 games, we are officially at the half-way mark of the season which means it's time to see how the Hurricanes have performed up to this point. They have a 15-23-7, have been sitting at last in the Eastern Conference for most of the year and have won only five games on the road, so I think it is safe to say that the Canes haven't lived up to expectations. The worst part of it is that their underlying performance hasn't been good either so their place in the standings is a pretty accurate representation of how they've played. Just to add even more salt to the wound, the intangibles haven't gone in their favor either as both the goaltending and shooting percentages are below what is considered the league average. In other words, the team is playing poorly and they are getting horribly unlucky, which is always a bad combination. They've also been pretty consistent as a poor possession team throughout the year but are things getting better or worse under Kirk Muller? We'll take a look at that, after the jump

In what has been a mainly forgettable year for the Hurricanes, yesterday's 5-2 win over the Lightning was a nice change of pace. They built on an early lead, chased a goalie killed penalties and got a dominant effort from their first line. Tuomo Ruutu said during the intermission that they played their best first period all season and it's hard to argue that since they scored four goals, which I am pretty sure hasn't happened this year. The whole game was one of the Canes strongest efforts all season and it was great to see them get rewarded with a win, their first W to be decided by more than two goals all season. Like I said, it was a refreshing change of pace and hopefully we'll have more decisive wins like this in the next few months.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Carolina Hurricanes (14-23-7) at Tampa Bay Lightning (17-20-4)
Tampa Bay Times Forum, 7:30 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, Sun Sports

If you can believe it, the Hurricanes have yet another player on the shelf with Jaro Spacek possibly being out for tonight's game after being hit by a puck in Tuesday's game against the Flyers. This means that another lineup change as been made with Derek Joslin being recalled from his conditioning stint in Charlotte to fill in for Spacek if needed. When it rains, it pours. I know that teams keep track of the amount of "man games" they have lost in a year but something I want to see is what the record is for the amount of consecutive lineup changes made in a season. The Hurricanes appear to be aiming for the record. The good news here is that Joslin has played with the team before and will probably be used in a sheltered third pairing role, so his play shouldn't be too much of a concern unless another injury happens. *knock on wood*

One other thing that is hard to believe is that a win against Tampa Bay tonight would put the Canes only one game out of fourth in the division. Although, that isn't too surprising when you look at how much the Bolts have fallen off in every category this year but they haven't been as horrible lately (4-4-2 in their last 10) and did beat us 5-2 on New Year's Eve so this won't be an easy game for Carolina. I am sure the Canes are sick and tired of being at the bottom of the division, so it would be great to see them win this game and start to climb out of the cellar.

Lines & more after the jump

In the wake of the article I posted about Chad LaRose and Jerome Samson's performance last night, there's been some debate about how what LaRose does can be easily replaced. First, we need to talk about what exactly a "replaceable player" is. In baseball and hockey, statisticians throw around the word "replacement level player" to describe a player who can be easily replaced by a call-up from the minors. Fourth liners and back-up goalies are the most common example of this. A player who is just replaceable is very different than one who is "replacement level." It basically means that his role can be played by someone else for less money and losing him would not set the team back that much. The new player filling in for him could be better or worse. Is LaRose "replaceable" or "replacement level." Samson's performance is making some people lean towards the latter but that isn't completely true.

Yes, Samson made not having LaRose in the lineup virturally noticeable last night, but it was just one game and Samson was by far Carolina's best forward last night. That won't be the case with every game but if Samson can play like that on a consistent basis, then we can start talking about shipping out players to make room for him. You could argue that he may not get another chance but he's earned himself a few more NHL games after last night, in my opinion. Still, to say that everything LaRose does can be replaced by an AHL call-up isn't neccesarily true when you look into everything he's been doing this year. LaRose ranks third in quality of competition faced among forwards, starts only 42.2% of his draws in the offensive zone and has been contributing on both the powerplay and the penalty kill. Add in his 11 goals and 21 points and I don't think you can call him a replacement level player who can be subbed out of the lineup by anyone without a problem. However, LaRose IS replaceable but that does not mean he is a bad player. 

He does a lot of good things for the team and would be a productive third liner just about everywhere he goes. Third liners can be found just about anywhere for a low cost, though. There are some who are better than others but for the most part, production from third liners can be replaced even if it doesn't happen immediately. A good example of a replaceable third liner is former Tampa Bay Lightning heavy-lifter Sean Bergenheim. He was one of Tampa Bay's best possession forwards despite constantly being thrown out in the defensive zone by coach Guy Boucher. He also killed penalties and modestly chipped in on offense (never scored more than 30 points in a season). He cashed in on a strong playoff performance and is now a Florida Panther and Tampa Bay signed Tom Pyatt and Ryan Shannon to replace him, both of whom are making less than $1 mil. this season. These three aren't nearly as good as Bergenheim but they both play a similar role and cost a lot less. Steve Yzerman was smart to let Bergenheim walk because while it is unpopular to let a fan-favorite go, Bergenheim's role in Tampa Bay could be done for a lot less than the $2.75 mil. he is making in Florida right now.

LaRose is signed to a cheap contract for the next few years and is giving the Canes a lot for the $1.9 they are paying him right now. He is also on pace to have a career year offensively but according to the VUKOTA projection I made for him, there's a good chance that this season is an aberration if he gets above 35 points. What I am trying to say here is that I would not rule out LaRose's name when if comes to players that might be traded. Make no mistake about it, LaRose has been one of the Hurricanes better players this season but what he does can be replaced and his value now could be at an all-time high.

Does this mean he will be traded? No, but his name could be on the block since there might be a lot of teams looking for a quality third liner signed a cheap contract. He's been a big part of the Canes this year but he can be replaced but remember, that isn't a knock against him. Hell, I can think of only three or four players on this team right now that aren't replaceable and I would likely trade LaRose before someone like Tuomo Ruutu, who might be on the block, as well.

My question to you is what players on the Canes do you see as replaceable and which ones are at "replacement level?"

Last night's 2-1 loss to the Flyers had a lot of positives that Carolina could take home and a game where they could have earned at least a point but things didn't quite work out that way. I know a lot of recaps will say that Flyers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky stole this game for them and while it might look that way on paper, the Flyers defense put forth a strong defensive effort. They kept most of the Hurricanes 36 shots on goal to the outside and did a very good job at protecting the area in front of the net. The Canes may have barely outshot the Flyers, but they trailed in scoring chances 13-11 at even strength and most of their scoring chances came in short rushes. Carolina definitely had the puck in the Philly zone a lot of times, they just didn't do much with it after that. 

Like I said, there are a lot of good things you can say about how the Canes played tonight despite the loss. Jerome Samson had a terrific game in his season debut, Justin Faulk had a relatively good game and we saw the reunited Bryan Allen/Tim Gleason defense pairing shutdown the Flyers top line. The Canes had the advantage when it came to territorial play but not scoring chances and that was one of the reasons why they lost this game. Maybe this is proof of shot quality?

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Philadelphia Flyers (24-12-4) at Carolina Hurricanes (14-22-7)
RBC Center, 7 p.m.
TV: FS-Carolinas, CSN-Philadelphia

The Hurricanes have made yet another lineup change as it is Chad LaRose who is injured this time and replacing him will be AHL All-Star forward Jerome Samson. It is odd that I wrote the article about LaRose's value to this team yesterday because that's when he injured himself in practice and will miss tonight's game with an "upper-body injury." He's gone through a bit of a rough patch in recent games but the Canes are going ot miss a lot without him on the ice tonight. He is one of their best forwards at creating scoring chances and the play is usually north with him on the ice. He has also taken a lot of tough draws and played against top competition on the first and third lines. That's a big hole to fill even if he isn't your ideal first liner, but it is worth noting that the Canes controlled 50.8% of the even strength scoring chances when Samson was on the ice last year so it's not like we've got a scrub up here.

Samson has been a top-scorer at the AHL level for years now but none of that has translated to the NHL in the 30 games he has played. He has yet to score a goal in the NHL but despite that, coach Kirk Muller is giving him a chance to succeed right off the bat as Bowman will be playing on a line with Jussi Jokinen and Alexei Ponikarovsky tonight. The Canes have got a little more balance in their forward corps with Jokinen moving back to the second line and they will need all the balance they can get tonight as they take on the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. It will be the final meeting of the season between these two teams and the Canes are hoping to even the season series.

Lines & more after the jump

Something troubling me about the Canes modest success under Kirk Muller was the amount of one goal games they were winning. As it turns out, this wasn't as big of a worry as I thought because the Canes are currently 6-6-7 in games decided by a goal and have accumulated only 42.9% of their points that from them. That isn't a very high or low number compared to other teams and the Canes are out of the race which makes this is a moot point. However, it did get me thinking about whether or not winning close games is a predictor of long term of success.

The Canes team that won the cup in 2005-06 won 28 of their games by only one goal, which was over half of their wins (53.8% if you want to get specific) and the 9th most in the league that season. It wasn't as extreme as the Columbus Blue Jackets of that year who had 68.8% of their wins come in close games but still a pretty high number. What about since the lockout? Did other teams who had a lot of wins in close games go on to have success in the playoffs? Can we use this information to predict anything this season?

We'll explore this after the jump

There seems to be a conflict within the fanbase about Chad LaRose and how he has been used as a top-six winger this season. I've heard a ton of praise and criticism thrown his way. Some people have said that this will be his break-out year and that he's finally showing that he can be a consistent 20-goal scorer. Others have said that he belongs on the fourth line, shouldn't be playing in the top-six and hurts the team more than he helps.

LaRose is on-pace to score 20 goals this year and it's likely that he'll set a personal high in points, but to say that he can consistently be a top-six winger is a stretch. He is almost 30 years old and hasn't scored more than 31 points in his career so that usually means what we're seeing right now is the best that we're going to get. However, to say that he is part of the problem with the Canes is also false because while LaRose is not a top-six forward, he does do a lot of good things for the Canes and has been one of their better players this season. What else do I have to say about #59? Find out after the jump, because there's a lot.