Should the Hurricanes re-sign Bryan Allen?

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The situation that the Hurricanes have with their current free agents has been scrutinized to death over the past few weeks and we all got a little relief a couple of days ago when Tuomo Ruutu was re-signed to a new deal. There is still one important player whose future with the team is uncertain and that, of course, is defenseman Bryan Allen.

With names like Nicklas Grossman, Hal Gill and Pavel Kubina being traded away for 2nd round picks and more, it would make sense for Carolina to trade away Allen because his return will likely be high. He is better than all three of those defensemen and is younger than all of them except Grossman. If they are going for second round picks, Rutherford should be able to get that and more in return for Allen.

Although, is it possible that Rutherford sees Allen as an important part of the team going forward and doesn't want to trade him? Absolutely. Allen has been phenomenal in a shutdown role this year and has been one of the team's best defensemen. Carolina's playoff chances are bleak, which means the general rule of thumb is for the Canes to sell off pending free agents and other assets for draft picks and "future considerations." Jim Rutherford has done the opposite of that, signing both Tuomo Ruutu and Tim Gleason to new contracts. After the jump, I'll explain why Allen could be the next guy who is inked to a new deal.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Anaheim Ducks 2/23/12 Scoring Chances

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The shootout hasn't exactly been the Hurricanes strong point this year as they have yet to win a game that has gone that far and dropped yet another decision via the shootout tonight with a 3-2 loss to the Anaheim Ducks. You can debate all you want about how silly the shootout is and how it determines whether or not a team gets an extra point, but that's unfortunately how the game works now. Overtime play in general has been a problem for Carolina this year as this puts them tied for the league lead in OTL's with Los Angeles and Florida. Carolina's point total enjoys those 12 charity points, but the team's inability to play well four-on-four has been exposed many times this year and it's usually in games that go to OT.

Tonight's game, however, was not one of those times. Carolina played a fine game at even strength and outchanced the Ducks 23-16. They were outshot overall, but that was mostly due to the Canes inability to stay out of the box and the Ducks taking full advantage of their powerplay opportunities. Carolina was able to test Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller numerous times but he was constantly up to the challenge and shut down most of the Canes best opportunities. At the other end, Justin Peters played another solid game for Carolina as he had to make quite a few impressive saves himself, which is why this game ended up going to overtime and eventually a shootout.

I know Carolina is only eight points back, but in order to make the playoffs the Canes would need to go on a miracle run. When I say that, I mean they need to win 18 of their next 21 games in regulation to get in. The odds of that happening are highly unlikely, so there's no need to get upset about losing in a shootout. Carolina played a good game tonight, they got another quality start from their #3 netminder and they are figuring out who fits into the team's plans going forward. That's what matters right now.

Scoring chances & more after the jump

Hurricanes re-sign Tuomo Ruutu

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After weeks of waiting to find out what would happen with Hurricanes winger and pending UFA Tuomo Ruutu, we finally got our answer today. The 29 year-old Finn will be staying in Raleigh for the foreseeable future as he just signed a four-year contract worth $19 mil. The contract will pay him $4 mil. next season and $5 mil. the three years after that which equates to a cap hit of about $4.75 mil. per year.

Let's get one thing out of the way, this is an overpayment and a pretty big one at that. Ruutu is a superb player and a great player to have in your top-six but I can't say that he is worth $4.75 mil. Yes, he scored 26 goals in 2008-09, which was mostly due to some absurd powerplay production, but he hasn't gotten close to that since then. His career high in points is 57 and his point pace has hovered around 45-55 for most of his career so we know where he stands right now. This year, he was on pace to score more than 20 goals for only the third time in his career and put up around 45 points. He's also 29, so what we're seeing right now is what we'll get for the next few years. In other words, Ruutu is good for about 15-25 goals and 45-55 points for the next few seasons. Is that worth $4.75 mil.? I don't think it is.

While this is an overpayment, I do not think that this contract should be considered an albatross or a mistake or Jim Rutherford's part. First of all, look at some of the players who are making $4.5-5 mil. right now. You'll see names like Tomas Fleischmann, Ryan Malone, David Backes, RJ Umberger, Brooks Laich and Martin Erat. All of them except for Backes fall under the "overpaid" category but that's the way the market has been. If Rutherford had let Ruutu walk, another team would have given him a similar contract with how this year's free agent class looks. I was hoping Ruutu would take less money but I think Rutehrford overpaid by less than $1 mil. here given the market.

The issue I had with letting Ruutu walk is that replacing him over the off-season would be a huge pain. Rutherford would have either did the same thing he did this off-season with Erik Cole by going the cheap route to replace him (which didn't work out at all) or overpay for another free agent. If we were going to spend around $5 mil. a year for a player, I'd prefer it to be someone who is better than Ruutu but, as I mentioned earlier, the free agent market doesn't have much to offer. If I were running the Canes, I would offer Ales Hemsky a three-year deal at a high cap hit and see what we can get out of him. He's a legit first liner and would be perfect for Carolina if he stays healthy but what are the odds of a deal like this happening? Rutherford has never been terribly active in the free agent market and there are going to be a lot of teams going after Hemsky. I don't know if the Canes would be able to land him. Keeping Ruutu around isn't the worst thing they can do, especially with the success he's had with Staal this year.

Don't get me wrong, I have plenty of concerns with this contract. Ruutu's possession rates have been declining over his career and while I do think he will stay productive for the remainder of his contract, it's worth keeping an eye on. Injuries are also a problem with Ruutu given how physical he plays and the fact that he's hurt now shows that. The increased salary will also increase his expectations because people are going to want to see more from a guy who is earning $4.75 mil. a year than one making $3.9 mil. I don't expect his production to take any huge leaps forward (or backward) so I can imagine this being a problem down the line when people look at his contract compared to his production.

Regardless, a four year deal isn't that bad of a contract even if the cap hit is high and I don't think this will hurt Carolina's future plans that much. Rutherford operates on a budget the the Canes are rarely a cap team. I can see Ruutu's salary playing a factor when it comes time to give Jeff Skinner a new contract but that's about it. If this were something like six years with the same cap hit, then I would be upset and say that it has the potential to become an albatross, but a four year deal is much less likely to sink a team.

In short, the Canes overpaid to keep Ruutu around but they made the right call by giving him four years instead of something longer than that. There were likely better options out there but at the very least, the Hurricanes shouldn't expect Ruutu's production to tail off completely for the rest of his contract and they have one less hole to fill in their top-six. It's not ideal, but I am content with this for the time being.

The Jets at the deadline

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Based on their opening day roster and their lack of activity in the off-season, many people had the Winnipeg Jets as a longshot to make the playoffs. As of today, they are knocking on the door of the top 8 in the Eastern Conference as they are currently tied with Ottawa and Florida with 65 points. The only thing that's keeping them from leapfrogging those teams is the fact that they have played more games. The fans in Winnipeg are happy enough to have the NHL back in Manitoba and I can only imagine how ecstatic they will be if the Jets make the playoffs. They have the luxury of playing in the Southeast Division so it is possible, but is there anything that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff can do to give his team a boost and give the Atlanta/Winnipeg franchise their second playoff appearance?

It is really tough to say the moment because, much to everyone's surprise, Winnipeg is a good team and is actually superior at controlling possession when the score is close than their Southeast peers. This is a strange team because they play much better at home than they do on the road. They control roughly 52% of the Fenwick close events at home compared to only 48% when they play away from the MTS Centre. They are also at a disadvantage when it comes to games in hand as both Washington and Florida have played at least three fewer games than them. Cheveldayoff is also a first-year GM, so it's hard to figure out what he will do because we do not know his spending habits or if he has a certain budget like a lot of GMs do.

Needless to say, Winnipeg has holes to fill but with most of their top young players already on the roster and not much to give in terms of prospects, I don't think they will make too much noise over the next week. Still, it's worth taking a look at what needs they could address when gearing up for a playoff push. We will do that after the jump.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Washington Capitals 2/20/12 Scoring Chances

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Last night's game was the first time this season that the Hurricanes truly dominated their opponent. They've had a lot of great games and big wins, but their 5-0 shellacking of the Caps was the first time that I can remember them walking all over another team. Everything seemed to be firing on all cylinders yesterday. They outshot the Caps 40-17, outchanced them 15-7 at even strength, scored on both the powerplay and penalty kill and they got one of the best efforts of the year from Eric Staal. Like last Monday's game against Montreal, Staal seemed to be playing on another level that we haven't seen much of this year and added another two goal, three point performance to his resume this year. With Ward, Pitkanen and Ruutu out of the lineup, Staal needs to be the team's best player and he was last night. Granted, Washington looked awful on so many different levels but the Canes took full advantage of that and bulldozed them.

Congratulations also go out to back-up Justin Peters who earned his first NHL shutout last night even though he didn't have do to much. I have been begging for the team to give him a lighter workload for awhile and they did just that as he only had to stop 17 shots and 10 scoring chances in a rocking chair, shutout performance. The team always seems to give up 30+ shots with Peters in net anyway, so this was a refreshing change.

Hurricanes Weekly Report 2/13-2/19

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It was a short week for the Hurricanes but a successful one as they went 2-1-0 and have only lost two games in regulation over the last month. The Canes playoff hopes might be all but finished, but it's nice to see the Canes win some more games and play better than they were at the beginning of the season. That said, the Canes were outchanced both overall and at even strength this past week and one of the main reasons they won two games was because of their special teams. They created 15 scoring chances on the powerplay, scored three times and had a shorthanded tally to boot. They also allowed three powerplay goals but two of them came in the game against Montreal and there was a span of five periods where they didn't allow a PPG.

With that in mind, let's break down some of the Canes individual standouts this week.

There's been some changes in the Canes' players roles and the biggest one is probably Jussi Jokinen receiving softer minutes. He's being sent out in the offensive zone more against weaker competition which is probably why he's seen his scoring pick up lately. Jamie McBain has also drifted to near below average territory in quality of competition which is a result of him playing on the third pairing with Jaroslav Spacek. Jiri Tlusty has actually seen his assignments get tougher as he's used in the offensive zone less than 50% of the time and he's around the same level as Eric Staal in quality of competition. Aside from taht, everything here looks like it has all season.

Top Performances

Eric Staal - The captain's "off-year" continues to look more like just a slow start. The bounces have been going in his favor for the last couple of months and he's been quietly accumulating points during that time, as well. Five points in three games for Staal and both his scoring chance and corsi rating led the team this week.

Jussi Jokinen - Easier zone starts have been a good thing for Jokinen as he netted a goal and added two assists this week. To make things even better, his scoring chance rate was 55.2% at even strength.

Justin Peters - Played remarkable against San Jose stopping 35 of 37 shots and did a solid job in relief duty against the Islanders, as well. Now if only we could stop allowing so many shots and chances when he he's in net...

Jamie McBain - McBain had an awful game against San Jose, but he played well against Montreal and the Islanders which is enough for me to give him a positive marker. Plus, he still recorded a point in that San Jose game. 

Jiri Tlusty - Tlusty was under .500 in terms of even strength scoring chances this week but he continued his seven game point streak with two goals and an assist. I'm not sure how long this pace will last but I'm fine with it continuing for as long as possible.

Under-Acheivers

Jay Harrison - The Canes were out-corsied by 13 at even strength when Harrison was on the ice, and he was also on ice for two powerplay goals against. Not the best week for him.

Patrick Dwyer - Had a nice assist on Brandon Sutter's goal against the Islanders but other than that, Dwyer produced little to no offense. He was on ice for only five Carolina scoring chances and 12 of the opponents. The one saving grace was that he wasn't on ice for an even strength goal against. Instead, it was two powerplay goals.

Jeff Skinner - He was poor against Montreal and San Jose but scored on a bit of a flukely goal against the latter. Still, the Canes were getting outshot and outchanced heavily when he was on the ice this week and his entire line looked off for whatever reason. He had a strong game against the Islanders but Skinner's defensive shortcomings were on full display the past week.

Other Notables:

Tim Brent - Did next to nothing at even strength but was on ice for all 10 of the Canes powerplay chances. Like I said, we've got a powerplay specialist here.

Anthony Stewart - 58.8% of the even strength chances went in the Canes favor when Stewart was on the ice last week, but most of that is from the Montreal game when he was placed on Staal's line. I will say that he and Derek Joslin could become Carolina's version of the Bash Brothers if they keep playing the way they have. Just hope some offense comes with all of that physicality.

Bryan Allen & Tim Gleason - Both had identical numbers and were outchanced at even strength this past week. They also were on ice for only one even strength goal. The PDO gods are kind to them.

Justin Faulk - He was even in terms of scoring chances but the Canes were getting possession moving in the right direction when Faulk was on the ice, which is great news. He also scored a beautiful powerplay goal Friday against San Jose.

Drayson Bowman - Responded from a poor game against San Jose with a monstrous game against the Islanders where he was on ice for six even strength chances. It's a shame that none of them went in because he could really use a goal right now.

Jaro Spacek - Was outchanced despite playing soft minutes but he scored two goals this week and that includes one against his former team. Hard to give a player who is scoring a negative marker.

Brandon Sutter - He had trouble containing the Tavares lines (then again, who didn't?) on Saturday night but played well against San Jose and Montreal. He also had nine shots on net and scored his 13th goal of the season this past week.

 

The Capitals at the deadline

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Many thought that the Caps would be well on their way to a fifth straight Southeast Division title but that hasn't been the case. They find themselves two points out of a playoff spot and two points behind the Florida Panthers and haven't lived up to the expectations that pretty much everyone had for them. You can spend all day pointing figures at who is to blame for this but in the end, the Caps struggles are the result of injuries, nearly everyone in their forward corps under performing and some poor patience and decision making from general manager George McPhee.

Back in December of 2010, the Caps were going through a horrible losing streak which was mostly due to poor goaltending and awful luck and McPhee decided not to do anything drastic despite people calling for head coach Bruce Boudreau's head. In November of this year, the Caps went through a similar slump but this time, McPhee pulled the plug on Boudreau and replaced him with Dale Hunter. At the time, the Caps were one of the best team's in the league at controlling possession and were being dragged down by awful goaltending and special teams. Ever since Hunter took over, their goaltending has improved, their special teams has stayed relatively the same but their ability to control possession has fallen drastically. They are controlling only 49.12% of the Fenwick events (shots + missed shots) at even strength now and have been below .500 ever since Hunter took over.

Clearly, the Caps are having issues adjusting to Hunter's system, which is expected because you have a team that's geared for the playoffs being led by someone who has never coached in the NHL before. It isn't exactly a recipe for success and the Caps place in the standings is a reflection of that. They are only 17-15-4 under Hunter and have been getting outshot regularly ever since he took over, which has caused pessimism to reach a new high in DC.

Can they still make the playoffs? Absolutely. The Southeast is a three team race right now between them, Florida and Winnipeg and neither team has looked dominant so the door is still open for the Caps. What will it take for the Caps to develop some consistency, though? After the jump, I'll explain that and look at what moves McPhee might make over the next week.

The Panthers at the deadline

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Dale Tallon was the laughing stock of the hockey world this summer when he signed eight different players to multi-year contracts in an attempt to get to the cap floor. Now that it is almost March and the Florida Panthers are leading the Southeast division, Tallon is the one that is laughing now. If that wasn't enough, most of the players who are leading the way for the Panthers are the ones that Tallon signed and traded for. Kris Versteeg, Jose Theodore, Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell and Marcel Goc have all played a huge role into Florida's success this year and they have a very good shot at taking the Southeast. They are a borderline positive team in terms of possession and aren't going to scare a lot of teams in the playoffs, but they are good enough to win the Southeast this year. The Caps have fallen apart ever since Dale Hunter took over, the Jets aren't dominant and both the Lightning and Carolina have little to no shot at the playoffs this year. Florida's chances at the playoffs are very real and Tallon has said that he plans for them to be "buyers" this deadline. They could use a few pieces to make some noise in the playoffs, but the question is who can they add and how much space do they have to work with?

We'll explore that after the jump.

The Hurricanes at the deadline

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Over the next few days, I am going to look at each team in the Southeast division and determine what kind of moves they could be making as the trade deadline approaches. We've already seen a few deals go down the last few days and have an idea of what the market looks like, so I am sure that things will get interesting soon.

What I am going to do is look at the situation each team is in and whether or not they will be "buyers" or "sellers" over the next week and look at where they stand monetarily. Different GMs have different kinds of budgets and that effects what kind of trades they will be making. Some GMs are more likely to pony up money to re-sign a player while others will trade him away for draft picks or future assets. I will also examine some of the moves that these teams have made leading up to the deadline to get an idea of what to expect.

Of course, I will be starting with the Carolina Hurricanes, who currently sit at the bottom of the Eastern Conference but they haven't been in complete sell mode yet. The only expiring contract they have dealt is Alexei Ponikarovsky and they actually re-signed Tim Gleason to a four-year deal. The cap floor and injuries in both Raleigh and Charlotte might be preventing Jim Rutherford from making all of the moves he wants, but Carolina doesn't need to blow everything up right now. The most likely thing Rutherford will do is trade those with expiring contracts or those who are on cheap deals in return for salary, prospects and picks. Who exactly do the Hurricanes have to trade now that Tuomo Ruutu is injured, though? Better yet, what kind of moves will Rutherford be making over the next week if any at all? After the jump, we'll review Rutherford's activity this year and look at what kind of situation the Canes are in.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders 2/18/12 Scoring Chances

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Every year, there always seems to be that one player who has your teams number whenever you play against them and for the Hurricanes this season, that player is John Tavares. The former number one pick scored two goals and had an assist tonight which now gives him six goals and twelve points in four games against the Hurricanes this year. Carolina has had some difficulty containing dangerous liines (Neal-Malkin-Kunitz come to mind) but none of them have come close to what Tavares has done. The Hurricanes aren't the only team that Tavares' line has walked all over this year, but his domination of them shows that the Canes defense could use some improvement. Gleason, Allen, Faulk, Nodl, Sutter, Dwyer & Harrison have all done a solid job this year but they have their limitations and we saw that tonight. It's a big reason why they lost tonight and why they are 0-2-2 against the Isles this year.

Aside from getting run over by the Islanders first line, the Canes played well tonight and had the advantage in scoring chances 19-17 despite taking the loss. Carolina didn't get off to a good start but they eventually shook off the cobwebs and were able to keep up with the Islanders for most of this game. A horrible stretch of play to begin the third period is what ended up dooming the Canes, though as they had to play from behind for the entire third period and couldn't do enough at even strength to tie the game.

Again, a good effort from Carolina even if it resulted in a loss (only the second loss in regulation in the last month) but the Canes had poor starts to the first and third period and it ended up hurting them. An injury to Cam Ward before the third period didn't help either.

Scoring Chances & more after the jump