In a turn of events that I am sure everyone saw coming, the Phoenix Coyotes now have a 2-0 series lead over the Nashville Predators after defeating them 5-3 last night. To win Game 1, the 'Yotes had to rely on goaltender Mike Smith to do most of the work, but that was not the case last night. Phoenix turned in one of their most impressive performances of the post-season and hammered the Preds at even strength; outchancing them 18-11 and outshooting them by 11. 

Going into this series, I was very excited and curious because things could truly go either way. Neither Phoenix or Nashville are dominant possession teams and they both have gotten elite goaltending so it was hard to predict who would control most of this series. That sentiment has reigned true so far as the Preds controlled most of game one while Phoenix dominated most of game 2 during five-on-five play. The reason for the Preds trailing 2-0 ultimately comes down to goaltending.

No, Pekka Rinne has not been atrocious and the Preds defense was pretty brutal last night, but he was out-dueled by Mike Smith in game 1 and gave up five goals in game 2. With the Preds being a team that succeeded laragely on goaltending and special teams for most of the season, Rinne needs to play better than he did last night. Although, that statement can also apply to a lot of the Predators players.

This season was a bit of a coming out party for Jay Harrison. He has been a fringe NHL player and bottom-pairing defenseman for most of his career but was one of the Hurricanes top-four defenders for most of the year and also played considerable time on both special teams units. For a good part of the season, Harrison looked very competent in these roles and he set career highs in just about every statistical category you can name. There are even some stats out there that have him listed as one of the Canes top blue-liners from this season. 

While I would not put Harrison above the likes of Tim Gleason, Bryan Allen, Joni Pitkanen, Justin Faulk or even Jamie McBain, I do think that he had a good season and am happy that he exceeded my expectations this season. However, something I am curious about is whether or not Harrison would be playing such big minutes on a team with a deeper blue line. Where would Harrison play on a team like St. Louis or Nashville? I  am willing to bet that he wouldn't be getting over 20 minutes a night on those clubs, but I think his play this year would at least earn him a roster spot on them.

The reason why I am curious about this is because the Hurricanes defense, as a whole, was not very good this season and I want to know how much of a role Harrison played in that. Is Harrison a third-pairing guy in reality and only playing top-four minutes in Carolina because their defense corps was thin? Should he be given this much responsibility next season or should the Canes search for better options to strengthen their defense? It is a good question and after the jump, we will take a look at Harrison's scoring chance numbers to get a better idea of the season Harrison had.

Ever since Cam Ward became the incumbent starter for the Hurricanes, the team has had a lot of trouble finding a reliable back-up for him. For the most part, they have been using guys called up from the AHL (see Leighton, Michael; Peters, Justin) or career journeymen like Manny Legace and John Grahame to spell Cam Ward and none of them have been that good in a back-up role. Because of this, Ward has started at least 80% of the Hurricanes games when healthy and it has definitely led to him being fatigued as the season goes on.

There were a lot of people who thought that Ward would get a few extra nights off this season because the team signed veteran Brian Boucher to back him up. In fact, this signing was praised by quite a few people including Jonathan Willis of Hockey Prospectus who had this to say about it.

In 2010-11, the Hruricanes used Justin Peters in the [back-up] role and he was a train wreck, costin gthe Hurricanes 11 more goals than a league-average goalie would have. This contrasts with his replacement, Brian Boucher, who stopped five more goals than an average goaltender would have for the Flyers in 2010-11. While Boucher's ability to have a positive impact will be limited because a) he will play in fewer games this season and b) his career track record suggests that he is a pretty average goalie, he should be able to stem the bleeding that happened every time Peters skated off the bench. If the former Flyers backup netminder can provide an average or even just below-average performance for the Hurricanes, they'll make up all the ground that they'll lose if Ward's save percentage dips next season. The addition of Boucher alone means tht things are much better than they were one year ago.

At the time this piece was written (summer of 2011), it seemed like a fair assessment but things didn't turn out the way most predicted at all. Brian Boucher was injured for most of the season and played in only 10 games. However, when he was healthy, he performed at below replacement level and Ward was ridden like a pack-mule for most of the season. If that wasn't enough, the goalie who Boucher was supposed to replace, Justin Peters, played six games with the Hurricanes and was terrific in all of them, stopping .945 of the even strength shots he faced so the Boucher signing might look like a bust to some.

One thing that a lot of people fail to realize is that goaltender performance is hard to predict and  Carolina has struggled with this since the lockout. What we saw from Boucher and Peters in a combined 17 games probably isn't anywhere near their true talent level. Thus, it is unfair to judge the Boucher signing now and it also too early to say that Peters should be the back-up next season. After the jump, we will take a look at how Ward's back-ups have performed over the years and how Boucher might perform next season.

The Phoenix Coyotes have been quite a story this post-season. Most people predicted them losing in the first round to the Chicago Blackhawks but they managed to take them down in six games, mostly due to some overtime magic. All but one of Phoenix's wins this post-season have come in overtime and that includes tonight's 4-3 win over the Nashville Predators in game 1 of the Western Conference Semi-finals.

This series is going to be very interesting because puck possession is not either team's specialty and it's tough to predict how things will turn out. Tonight, the Preds had the advantage in territorial play outshooting Phoenix 34-23 at even strength and outchancing them 19-16. They also had a stronger powerplay tonight, which equates to a win in most cases, except this year's playoffs. Mike Smith was absolutely stellar in net for the Coyotes and he was the main reason why they won. 

Anyone who watched the game will likely tell you that the Preds controlled the latter stages of the game and that was certainly the case. They had the Coyotes pinned in their own zone for the last 50+ minutes or so but couldn't get anything past Smith in overtime. You could say that they received a taste of their own medicine from last round because Detroit was the better team at even strength but goaltending was the reason why Nashville won in five games. It would be some weird karmic justice if the rest of the series turns out like this and I will be shocked if it does.

Scoring chance breakdown after the jump

Over the past few seasons, Tim Gleason has been the Hurricanes' only bonafide shutdown defenseman. He starts a good majority of his shifts in the defensive zone, is usually matched up against opposing team's top lines and is trusted with duty of keeping these opponents in check. Gleason plays one of the most important roles on the team and that was reinforced when GM Jim Rutherford elected to re-sign him to a four year deal instead of trading him.

How effective was Gleason in this role? Judging him based on raw numbers alone is unfair because he is basically fighting an uphill battle every shift, but some of his underlying numbers from this season are pretty ugly. Gleason may have been a +12, but an on-ice shooting percentage of .932 at even strength helped that cause. The job of a shutdown defenseman is to prevent shots and scoring chances against and even when factoring in his heavy workload, Gleason seemed to be on ice for the opposing team's a little too often. 

A breakdown of those underlying numbers is coming after the jump

This series is now in the books and the Predators managed to oust the Detroit Red Wings, in five games and advance to the second round of the playoffs for the second time in franchise history. Most pundits and bloggers were split on their prediction on who would win this series but one thing they agreed on was that it would be a long series. That obviously wasn't the case as the Preds made quick work of their Central Division foes and became the first team to advance this post-season.

For my prediction, I had the Wings advancing in six games based on the fact that the Wings have been one of the best possession teams at even strength during the regular season while the Preds have been one of the worst. In addition to that, the Preds were relying on a hot powerplay and elite goaltending to get them to a playoff spot and I figured both of those wouldn't be enough to match against the Wings.

The part about the Wings being a superior team at even strength reigned true throughout this series, but the Preds absolutely dominated the goaltending matchup, which is part of the reason why they are in the second round and Detroit is golfing. After the jump, we'll take a closer look at what went right for Nashville and what went wrong for Detroit.

The biggest surprise of the year for Carolina has to be the emergence of Justin Faulk. The thought coming into this season was that the 19-year old would spend most of the season in Charlotte but he ended up playing 66 games with the Hurricanes and was one of their more consistent defensemen. Faulk's development is leaps and bounds above what many expected as he is already playing top four minutes on the Hurricanes without needing to be sheltered from tough competition. In addition to that, he performed a lot better than most of the team's other blue-liners in those situations and was one of the Canes' best special teams players.

Faulk is probably the best defenseman of this year's rookie class but his defensive game is still coming along, which is evident when you look at his even strength play. Faulk was on ice for more of Carolina's even strength chances relative to his ice time than any other defensemen, but he was also on ice for more of the opponent's, showing that his two-way game is still a work in progress. He performed better than most of Carolina's defensemen but he was also playing easier minutes than the likes of Tim Gleason and Bryan Allen, which is worth keeping in mind when evaluating Faulk as a player.

It's hard to be upset about the season Faulk had, though. He's already playing 20+ minutes a night while contributing on both the powerplay and penalty kill as a rookie. Faulk is still very young and I am sure that his overall game will be more polished in years to come. His numbers on the powerplay and penalty kill suggest that he plays well when he has a specific task, but finding the balance between offense and defense is what he needs to work on. The Hurricanes have to be happy with what they saw out of Faulk this year as it looks like he can be a top pairing defenseman somewhere along the line if he can continue to improve.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump

Yesterday, Hurricanes beat writer Chip Alexander tweeted that GM Jim Rutherford re-signed 24-year old forward Jiri Tlusty to a two year contract extension which will have a cap hit of $1.6 mil. each year. Tlusty is coming off a breakout season where he set career high marks in both goals and points (17 and 36 respectively) and became a regular on the first line with Eric Staal. He was about to become a restricted free agent and was a huge bargain for the $525k he was making this season, so he absolutely deserved an extension and a raise but there are some questions looming about him.

Whenever a GM signs a player to any contract, he is taking a risk by investing years and dollars in that player. Is Tlusty worth that kind of risk to the Hurricanes. My first thought is yes because Tlusty is coming off a great season and a two-year deal with less than $2 mil. per isn't exactly a huge investment, especially for a team like Carolina who doesn't spend to the cap.

However, I can't help but be reminded of the Edmonton Oilers getting themselves into a huge mess by signing a number of young players to multi-year deals after they had one good season, most specifically Gilbert Brule and Robert Nilsson. Brule in particular has some similarities to Tlusty. Both entered the league at a young age and clearly weren't ready for the NHL at the time. As a result, they couldn't make much of an impact with the clubs who drafted them and ended up having breakout seasons with their new team's shortly after.

Brule had 17 goals and 37 points in his second season with the Oilers which led to him getting a two-year extension worth about $1.9 mil. per year. That decision ended up burning the Oilers as he struggled with injuries the next year and wasn't very effective when he was healthy either. The Oilers attempted to trade him, but his concussion issues prevented that and Brule was eventually put on waivers and claimed by the Phoenix Coyotes. The point behind this is that the risk the Oilers took on Brule didn't appear to be terrible at first, but it ended up looking like a horrible decision the year later. Can the same thing happen with Tlusty?

Tlusty and Brule are completely different players, but their underlying numbers from their breakout seasons (2009 for Brule & 2011 for Tlusty respectively) are a tad similar. They didn't have spectacular possession numbers, started a slight majority of their shifts in the defensive zone and faced similar opponents in terms of quality of competition. The most glaring similarity though comes in the first Copper & Blue article I linked two paragraphs earlier and that's the effect of good linemates. Much of Brule's success in his breakout year was attributed to playing with Dustin Penner during his career season. Likewise, Tlusty's success can possibly be attributed to Eric Staal.

I examined this a couple months ago and determined that Tlusty is a lot more effective when he is playing with Staal. Just about all of Tlusty's underlying numbers went up when he was playing on Staal's line and they took a nose-dive when he wasn't. Another telling stat is that Staal was on ice for 30 of the even strength goals Tlusty scored, which is 71.4% of the 42 he was on-ice for all season. You have to wonder what happens when he isn't playing with Staal.

That being said,Tlusty and Brule have their differences. Brule has a very sketchy injury history and Tlusty's isn't nearly as bad. Tlusty has also been a lot more successful at the AHL level as he was almost a point-per-game player with the Toronto Marlies. He was still in his early 20's during those years, too. It's also possible that he might stay in a top-six role next season and if he can continue to develop chemistry with Staal, then the Hurricanes have themselves a good player locked up for two more years. Tlusty was also somewhat effective in a bottom-six role in 2010-11 in Carolina and proved to be useful even if he wasn't scoring. 

Just about every player has "red flags" that people will point to when it comes time for contract negotiations and Tlusty is no different. The Hurricanes are taking a risk with Tlusty but in today's cap world, a $1.6 mil. cap hit isn't going to severely damage a team beyond repair. If Tlusty can improve on this season or even have something similar to it, then this is a great deal. If not, then the Canes can easily work their way around it. What we don't know is whether or not they will get the Tlusty of this most recent season.

If you look at the rosters for every team in the NHL, most of them will have a player like Patrick Dwyer in their bottom-six. Dwyer is a prototypical defensive forward who specializes in killing penalties, blocking shots and preventing chances and he does all three of those tasks very well for the Hurricanes. You could say that he's a "dime a dozen" player but what makes Dwyer more valuable than other defensive forwards is how big of a workload he (and Sutter) take on.

For most of the year, these two and Andreas Nodl made up the team's shutdown line and they started almost 70% of their shifts in the defensive zone. Dywer and Sutter alone were in the bottom quarter of the league in offensive zone start percentage and were always matched up against opposing team's top lines. The Hurricanes also yielded fewer scoring chances whenever Dwyer was on the ice, which shows that he's above other standard defensive forwards when you consider the situations that he plays in. That is what makes Dwyer a valuable member to the Hurricanes.

What keeps Dwyer from being more than just a defensive or a bottom-sixer is his offensive skill-set, which is almost non-existent. He can skate well and his hands aren't made out of stone, but he doesn't have much of a scoring upside at all. That's the reason why he appears as a replacement level player in both boxcar and underlying numbers but he plays a very important role on the Hurricanes and does a solid job at it.

We will look at said underlying numbers after the jump

There are a lot of phrases you can use to sum up the Capitals 4-3 overtime loss to the Bruins in Game 6 this afternoon. I've heard most people call it an "opportunity missed" for the Caps because they could have closed out the series with a win, but failed in overtime. Personally, I see this as a wasted effort for Washington. The Caps played arguably their best game of the series but ended up taking the loss because of a few miscues and a poorly played overtime period. Now they have to play one more game to advance. 

The Bruins are still winning the overall battle at even strength so they should be confident going into game 7, but they dodged a bullet in today's game.

Scoring chance breakdown after the jump