Tracking zone entries are something that I have touched on briefly in past articles but have yet to do any serious posts on for the Hurricanes to explain why I am doing this. Part of the reason for this is because I am currently doing a major project from last season and do not have enough data on the team for me to do a substantive post about them. That will come at a later time. For now, I thought it would be a good idea to show what exactly I'm doing with this project and how it correlates to success on the ice.

The main goal behind tracking zone entries is finding out which teams are controlling the neutral zone, how they are entering the zone and how well they perform territorially after getting the puck in. There are other methods but generally, the two most common ways that teams enter the opposing zone are either by dumping the puck in or carrying it in themselves. The whole "dump and chase" method is something that you'll hear a lot of color analysts talk about as one of the "keys to victory" for their team because it's a safe way to get the puck in deep. Carolina's color analyst often puts emphasis on "good dumps," whatever the hell that means.

While dumping the puck in presents less chance for a turnover, there hasn't been much evidence to show that it leads to success in terms of generating shots or scoring chances. In fact, past studies have indicated quite the opposite and it makes sense when you think about it. Teams who simply dump the puck in are essentially giving the puck back to the other team in their own zone. Unless they play in a system that puts emphasis on strong forechecking and creating turnovers, this method doesn't seem like the best for success, especially if you're playing from behind. 

In my years of watching the Hurricanes, I have noticed that they tend to play "dump and chase" a lot and it could be one of the reasons why this team has been so poor territorially over the last three years or so. I will have a better idea of this once I have more games tracked but to show you what exactly I'm doing with this project, I will go over one of Carolina's game from last season and show how much the team's zone entries correlated with the amount of shots and scoring chances they generated. 

The game is Carolina's 3-2 shootout loss to the Ottawa Senators from last October. Why did I pick this game? Because it's where I am currently at in the season right now and featured a lot of even strength play. I thought it would serve as a good introduction to this project, which we will start after the jump.

In need of an offensive spark, the Charlotte Checkers decided to give their ECHL affiliate in Florida a holler yesterday to call up left winger Justin Shugg. This will be Shugg's second stint with the Checkers, as he got to play 33 games with the team last year before injuries set him back and he had to finish the year in the ECHL. Shugg was the Hurricanes fourth round pick in the 2010 NHL draft and is a very creative offensive player who may help the Checkers get out of their recent scoring slump. There were many who thought Shugg would be in the AHL full-time this year because of how well he performed in the ECHL the previous season but there wasn't any room for him on the roster which is partially due to the NHL Lockout.

The general thought was that Shugg should be able to dominate in the ECHL given his talent and he has done that so far if you go by his scoring line of 11 goals and 22 points in 19 games. This is basically him building off how he ended last season, as he should be expected to excel at that level. He was a terrific goal-scorer at juniors and was also pretty effective offensively when he was healthy with Charlotte last year. Whether or not he will produce at a higher level or have a future in the NHL remains to be seen, but it looks like he is going to get another shot with the Checkers starting with tonight's game against the Milwaukee Admirals.

The question is how will Charlotte's head coach, Jeff Daniels, use Shugg because the Checkers have plenty of wingers at their disposal right now. Boychuk, Bowman, Terry and even Sutter have been producing this year so it's hard to imagine that Shugg will take any of their spots in the lineup. However, with the Checkers losing six of their last seven games and scoring two or fewer goals in all of those losses, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Daniels change things up and give Shugg some more minutes. Shugg has been one of the Everblades top scorers this year, so the Checkers aren't going to take him away from them just so he can be plugged in on the fourth line, or at least I hope that they do not plan to do that.

It was announced a few minutes ago on Twitter by Paul Branecky that Jerome Samson will be a healthy scratch tonight to make room for Shugg, so it sounds like he is going to get some decent minutes, whether it be in the top-six or on the third line. After playing so well with the Everblades, it's hard to say that Shugg didn't earn this call-up so let's hope he can make the most of whatever ice time he gets tonight. I doubt his presence alone will break the Checkers out of their slump but inserting another goal-scorer in the lineup is never a bad thing.

The expectations for Hurricanes 2010 third round pick Austin Levi were somewhat high heading into this season. He started the year in camp with the Charlotte Checkers but ended up being one of the final cuts and is now playing his fifth year with the Plymouth Whalers. Seeing how this is his Overage year and he has gotten better with every season, there was little reason to think that he wouldn't perform well after returning to juniors. Unfortunately, the season hasn't gone as planned for Levi as he has struggled to make an impact for most of the year and even found himself out of the lineup for a few games recently. I'm not 100% sure if this was due to performance or a possible injury that I haven't heard of, but I think most would agree that Levi has been somewhat underwhelming thus far.

It is still a very long season, so Levi has plenty of time to make up for his slow start to the year and he began to right the ship on Sunday against the Oshawa Genearls. Levi made his return to the Whalers lineup that night and recorded two assists, one of which came on the powerplay. The Whalers ended up losing that game 4-3 so I'm sure Levi isn't happy about that but he can at least look at his performance and be happy that he made the most of his return to the lineup. You can't really judge his performance based on goals and points alone but that is the easiest way to get noticed for those who are unable to watch the games, so that is one way to make yourself standpoint. Hopefully Levi can continue to do that on more than just the scoresheet for the rest of the year.

There were quite a few players in the Hurricanes CHL prospect pool who posted big numbers this past weekend and we will take a closer look at them after the jump. 

Earlier this week, it was announced that Philippe Paradis was being assigned to the ECHL by the Chicago Blackhawks/Rockford Ice Hogs. You may remember that Paradis was the Hurricanes first round pick from the 2009 NHL Draft and was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs later on in the year in exchange for Jiri Tlusty. Seeing how Tlusty has emerged as a top-six player and is currently playing well overseas while Paradis has struggled at just about every professional level, I think most would agree that the Hurricanes won this deal by a landslide. This did get me thinking about what kind of shape the Hurricanes prospect pool would be in had they kept Paradis and how Rutherford and the Canes scouting staff has had a lot of tough luck when it comes to drafting during their tenure.

Would you believe that since the year 2000, there have been only eight draft picks by the Hurricanes who went onto play 100 or more games for the team? Would you also believe that behind Eric Staal, Niclas Wallin has played the most games in a Carolina sweater among players drafted by Rutherford? Well, it's true. Not every team can be as good as the Detroit Red Wings when it comes to drafting younger talent, but the Hurricanes had some very rough drafts from 2000 through 2009. Aside from landing Cam Ward, Eric Staal and Brandon Sutter, there were not a lot of great players to come out of those drafts at all.

Now with that being said, the Hurricanes were still a reasonably competitive team during most of those years and this was mostly due to Rutherford being able to acquire talent through trades rather than the draft. If you were to look at just about any of Rutherford's moves during the last 10-12 years or so, it's pretty easy to see that he is more of a "play for the present" kind of guy and doesn't like to have his team sit through long rebuilding periods. He has shown that he isn't afraid to trade away draft picks from proven talent and would rather take a risk on a somewhat seasoned prospect rather than drafting one who is a few years or so away from the NHL. The recent trades involving Jordan Staal, Riley Nash and Bobby Sanguinetti indicate that and so do the trades he made during the 2005-06 year when Carolina won the Stanley Cup.

Trading away draft picks is something that a lot of GM's are reluctant to do but in the end, those picks are only as valuable as the team's scouring department, as it has been proven over the years that some organizations have an eye for finding talent in the later round of the draft. The Hurricanes, unfortunately, have not been one of those teams for most of the last decade and Rutherford seemed to notice this somewhere down the line and began to use a lot of his draft picks as trading chips. Some may not like this strategy but draft picks are never a sure thing and Rutherford was able to turn some of Carolina's picks into pieces the team could use to make the team immediately better.

The most pointed at example of Rutherford's trading is the deal that sent Keith Primeau and a 5th round pick to Philadelphia in exchange for future captain Rod Brind'Amour but there are actually a few more that really stick out. The Canes had to send five of their draft picks away to bring Doug Weight, Marc Recchi and Anton Babchuk to Carolina during their Cup run and I think just about everyone will tell you that they were well worth the price, and that's before you consider that the only current NHL-er to come from those picks is James Reimer. A couple other trades to mention is the Matt Cullen deal from 2008 where the Canes sent their third round pick from 2008 to the Rangers to acquire him and the Aaron Ward trade from 2002 where Carolina got him from Detroit for a second round pick. Both of those players ended up being more than just rentals for the Hurricanes and played important roles in their post-season success, albeit in separate years.

Rutherford's strategy changed a little bit once 2010 rolled along. The team's core was aging and there were not many younger players to take their place outside of Eric Staal. Knowing that the organization needed young talent and that they were going to end up with a high draft pick, Rutherford elected to trade away some of his older players on expiring contracts in exchange for picks. Since then, the team's drafting has gotten better and it also helped that he used a few of those picks to acquire some other younger talent like Riley Nash and Bobby Sanguinetti who were far closer to being NHL ready than most kids in the draft.

Then you have the Jordan Staal trade, which shows Rutherford going back to his older ways of trying to win now rather than waiting out another rebuilding year. I'm still not sure if Staal's value will equate to what Rutherford gave up, but this isn't the first time that he has traded away a first rounder or a high draft pick before. Seeing how the best player taken with a pick that Rutherford traded away was Jiri Hudler back in 2002, I don't think the Canes have too much to worry about on that front. Carolina still does not possess a top-notch prospect pool but they do have a lot of young talent who are on the verge of being NHL-ready, so it will be interesting to see what happens with these players and what Rutherford does in future drafts. The lockout is going to put even more pressure on a team like Carolina to play for the present, so we could see some interesting moves up his sleeve once if the NHL season resumes.

The fantastic start that the Charlotte Checkers got off to at the beginning of the year is looking rather important right now, as the team still sits in first place in the South Division despite losing their last five games. It was said that the Checkers were playing over their heads a little bit during October and November and that they would eventually cool down, which seems to be happening now. The Checkers high-powered offense has been limited to only nine goals over their last five games and they have been outscored 23-9 overall. It was very unlikely for the Checkers to keep scoring at the rate they were previously, but the offense has dried up a bit during the last few games and it doesn't help that they are giving up a lot at the other end of the rink, either. Has the Checkers performance on the ice been as ugly as it looks on the scoresheet, though?

In some ways, yes but they haven't been playing as bad as one would think.

Charlotte's Last Five Games

Other than goal differential, some of the Checkers numbers from the last five games aren't that horrible. The only game where they were completely destroyed was the 7-2 shellacking they took against Oklahoma City. Other than that, they have been fairly competitive in most of these games despite the terrible goal differential. Even with that stinker against OKC, the Checkers have been getting barely outshot during this stretch. So if the team hasn't been playing that poorly then why are they getting outscored so much?

The answer to that all comes down to shooting percentage, something that a lot of players on the Checkers have been getting the better of this season. There was a point where the Checkers scored on over 30% of their powerplay opportunities and had a few players with shooting percentages over 20%. Anyone who has taken a basic statistics course should know that those numbers aren't going to sustain over time and are going to come down eventually and that's exactly what we're seeing happen to the Checkers here. As a team, they have been shooting at only 5.8% during this stretch and their powerplay has converted only three times out of 20 opportunities. The first number is a much more extreme case of regression as the Checkers have seen their luck go in the complete opposite direction of where it was earlier. I don't think the team will get back to scoring as much as they were earlier in the season, but the offense should pick up a little if they continue to stay somewhat competitive in games.

On the other end, you have the team giving up 23 goals in 5 games and that can be traced back to goaltending. Dan Ellis and Justin Peters have a combined save percentage .865 during this stretch, which just isn't going to get it done. I'm not usually one to blame the goaltenders for everything because the defense obviously has to help them out a little but a save percentage under .900 during any stretch of time is usually a bad sign no matter what. I'll cut them some slack in the second OKC and first Rockford games, as the defense gave up a ton of shots those nights but it's hard to defend them in the three other contests. This is only five games and their true talent level is above what they have shown in this small sample size, but these two are going to need to play a little better.

That last statement sums up the Checkers last five games fairly accurately, too. This team isn't as good as what we saw for most of October and November but they aren't as bad as they've played the last five games either. I would expect them to get on track soon and they have a good chance to turn things around for the rest of the month with seven of the remaining 11 games coming at home. The Checkers seem to have a knack for extremes, so we could be in for another roller coaster ride later on in the year. 

Two weeks ago, Carolina Hurricanes fourth round pick from this year's draft, Trevor Carrick of the Mississauga Steelheads, was benched for a couple games after his team suffered a rough 8-0 loss at the hands of the Guelph Storm. Carrick was only on ice for a powerplay goal against, so I thought the benching was a bit odd, but Mississauga's coaching staff clearly saw something wrong with him in that game and was consequently benched. When a a player has to ride the pine for a game or two, many say that it messes with their confidence and can derail the rest of their season.

Carrick returned to the lineup in both fo Mississauga's games last week and recorded a point in each of them. He also scored his sixth goal of the season in Friday's game against the Niagara Ice Dogs, so it doesn't look like confidence is a big issue for him. I still think it's a little odd that Carrick was benched in the first place because from my viewpoint, he is having a very solid season and has made considerable improvements from last year. I'm probably not the most informed person about him or the Steelheads, though. Either way, he is back in the lineup now and producing which is good news for the Hurricanes. Unfortunately, the Steelheads lost both of their games this week and gave up an astonishing 56 shots in one of them which is probably a sign that Carrick's defensive play may have been what got him benched. Then again, if a team gives up that many shots in one game, it's more indicative of a team's entire defensive play rather than one player. I don't have access to watch these games and there is only so much information available, so I'm doing my best here folks.

Moving on, let's take a look at the week that was for the rest of the Hurricanes CHL prospects.

Another month has gone by without the NHL but some the Hurricanes players have been busy playing hockey in different leagues overseas. As of this post, there are now five players on the Hurricanes roster who are playing in European leagues to stay fresh during the lockout with Jamie McBain being the latest addition. The young defenseman decided to go on a short-stint with the Lahti Pelicans of Finland's SM-Liiga at the beginning of the month. He initially planned to stay for only a few games but it looks like he may stick around for a bit longer now that the lockout has gone into December. Jussi Jokinen also decided to extend his stay in Finland by playing a few more games with SM-Liiga's Karpat HC this month.

Now that these players have some more games under their belt, we'll take an updated look at what their performance would look like if they were in the NHL during this time using Gabe Desjardins' NHL equivalency values. If you need a refresher on what those are, I outlined it in last month's post on this topic.

We'll move onto this month after the jump.

Something you may have noticed is that I haven't posted any updates on Carolina's NCAA prospects in a couple weeks. The reason for this is because there are usually only two games per weekend in the college rankings and with only five players to track, there isn't much to say about them unless they had a big performance. This is especially true if you don't have a chance to watch any of their games, which has been the case for me and the Hurricanes NCAA prospects this year. That is, until last night when I tuned into NBC Sports to watch the Wisconsin/Denver game featuring Carolina's 2012 fifth round draft pick Brendan Woods. 

Woods isn't one of the team's highly regarded prospects and he is only a borderline top-six player on a struggling Wisconsin Badgers squad, but getting a closer look at him to dissect the pros and cons of his playing style is never a bad thing. Watching this game also gives us a chance to look at some other team's prospects as there were many NHL draft picks playing in this game and keep an eye on some players who might be entering the draft this summer. This also gives me a chance to finally do some statistical tracking with college hockey, which is something that's been on my to-do list for awhile. Better late than never, I suppose. 

After the jump, I will breakdown the Denver/Wisconsin game a little bit and point out some things in Woods' performance that stood out to me.

If there is one thing the Hurricanes seem to have a lot of, it is talented forward prospects with questionable NHL futures. Between Zac Dalpe, Zach Boychuk, Drayson Bowman, Riley Nash, Jeremy Welsh and Jerome Samson, I'm sure the Hurricanes will be satisfied if they can get at least two full-time NHL-ers out of that pack. The expectations for some of these players was once higher than it was now, but the truth with just about any prospect is that you never really know what you'll get out of them and the best you can hope is for them to have at least some future as an NHL-er. Every player listed above at least has some NHL experience and Bowman is looking like he is ready to be a third-liner at the next level, so the future isn't completely uncertain for them. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for one of Carolina's lesser-known prospects, Chris Terry.

A fifth round pick from the 2005 draft, Terry has been a very productive goal-scorer and offensive player at just about every level he has played in. He led the Charlotte Checkers in points last year 59 points in 74 games and was their leading goal-scorer the year before. Terry was also a very accomplished goal-scorer in junior hockey, as he was one of the Plymouth Whalers top point-getters in all of his last three seasons there. The fact that he has been able to carry over his productive from juniors to the pros should be a good sign as far as his development goes but for whatever reason, Terry has yet to be given a shot at the NHL level. Terry would likely have only stuck around for 10-15 games at the max given that's what happens to most call-ups but it is a little odd that he has yet to receive a shot in the NHL when you consider that he has been waiver exempt and one of Charlotte's most productive players.

The issue with Terry not receiving a shot with the Hurricanes yet likely stems from the timing of each situation. Terry's numbers in the AHL have always been impressive but he is lower on the prospect totem pole than Dalpe, Boychuk and Bowman. Those three were always more likely to get a call for a two-week stint in the NHL just to see what they can do and what their future looks like. Terry is also a goal-scorer whose skillset is more suited for a top-six role, so when the Hurricanes needed call up someone to plug in on one of the bottom-two lines, it was going to be Brett Sutter or Jerome Samson since they have more experience in those roles. Unfortunately, during the Maurice era, Dalpe and Boychuk would also get slotted into those roles but that's another issue for another day. The main point here is that Terry has always been in kind of a tough spot when it comes to getting NHL experience and it makes you wonder if he will ever get a shot with the Hurricanes.

Perhaps a better question is whether or not Terry has an NHL future at all. Sure, his numbers are good but there are tons of players who have been able to dominate at lower levels while not amounting to much of anything at the NHL. Does Terry fall into this class? Right now, it's tough to say because he has yet to be given a shot there and is going to lose a year thanks to the lockout. He may get a chance someday but it may come when he isn't with the Hurricanes organization. Should that happen, are the Hurricanes going to be missing out on anything special? A way to find out is to look at some comparable players to Terry and see what they did in the NHL.

There was a lot to be excited about with the Charlotte Checkers this weekend. The team had one of the best records in the AHL and just finished one of the toughest parts of their schedule where the majority of their games were on the road. This weekend's series against the Oklahoma City Barons was the first set of games of a long home-stand for the Checkers where they would play 10 games at the Time Warner Cable Arena. It was also the first meeting between the new South Division rivals who are likely to have many good battles this year and in upcoming seasons. There was definitely a lot of anticipation for this matchup, but things didn't exactly go as planned for the Checkers, as they ended up losing both games to the Barons. 

The Barons are team that I've talked about quite a bit on here because they have arguably the most NHL talent among teams in the American Hockey League thanks to the lockout and the Checkers got to see that first hand last weekend. The Barons outscored the Checkers by a combined score of 11-4 this weekend and outshot them 69-58. Although, most of this damage was done on Sunday afternoon when the Barons handed the Checkers their worst loss of the season by a score of 7-2. They just overpowered the Checkers in this game with their high powered offense featuring would-be NHL-ers like Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall, two of which had multi-point performances in both games. Eberle had four goals this weekend and the one most will remember is this beauty from Saturday's game where he undressed Charlotte defenseman Rasmus Rissanen to tie the game for the Barons. Justin Schultz also factored himself into the equation with one goal and a pair of assists in both games as he continues to dominate the AHL's scoring race.

Outside of Zach Boychuk's two goals that put him tied for first for goals in the AHL, there are not many positive things to go over with the Checkers from that series. Both goalies played relatively poorly with Justin Peters giving up three goals on only 21 shots on Saturday night and Dan Ellis finally came crashing back down to earth on Sunday after giving up six goals on 29 shots. There wasn't much he could do about the goals he let in, but it was still a very ugly performance. Charlotte's defensemen also took home some ugly stat-lines from that game with the most concerning being Justin Faulk taking three penalties and getting tagged with a -5.

Some may panic about Charlotte's two losses this weekend because they came against a divisional opponent and it puts more pressure on them now to retain their top-spot but I think it's a bit too early to worry about that. There is still plenty of hockey left to be played and every team has their bad games. Charlotte was bound to run into a bump in the road sooner or later and that's what we saw this weekend. Plus, it's worth keeping in mind that the Barons not only have a lot of NHL talent on their team, but they have guys that would be playing big minutes on NHL clubs. Hall, Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins were all first-liners and among the best players on the Edmonton Oilers last year and Schultz has been at another level against AHL competition this season. Justin Faulk is the only player the Checkers have that can match up with them and we saw why this weekend. I'm interested to see how these two teams play each other in the future, especially after the lockout ends.

It wasn't all bad out of Checkers camp despite the two losses, though. They also had a road game against the Norfolk Admirals earlier in the week, which they won 5-2 on the back of three first period goals. Zac Dalpe also had a very good week, scoring on a rebound chance against Oklahoma City and recording an astonishing 14 shots on goal over three games. He was far more effective and dynamic offensively than he had been all season long and it should get some more people excited about him. Boychuk also recorded two goals, as mentioned earlier and is now the AHL leader in goals scored with 12. Bobby Sanguinetti had a good week at the office with three assists and Michal Jordan doubled his season total with three assists of his own this past week. Drayson Bowman also netted his 11th goal of the season and Chris Terry continued his strong start to the year with a goal and a assist. Also scoring this week was Jeremy Welsh, Riley Nash, Sean Dolan and Tim Wallace.

The Checkers now have some competition in the South Division with the Barons only two points behind them in the standings. They will have a chance to gain some separation from them this upcoming weekend when they take on the Rockford IceHogs in a weekend home series. Charlotte split the earlier series against Rockford this year, so this is going to be another good test for them. Hopefully they can regain their footing after the pair of tough games against the Barons.