If you could sum up Tuomo Ruutu's season in one word, it would likely be "inconsistent." At the end of October, Ruutu had only four points and a lot of people wondered if he was playing through an injury because he didn't look like himself at all. We all knew that Ruutu couldn't continue to play this poor forever and he eventually came around with a solid performances in November and December, and the talk among fans shifted to Ruutu needing to be re-signed or traded for Kings Ransom because he appeared to be the team's best forward at the time.
December remained Ruutu's highest point of the season as he would cool off in January and sustain an upper-body injury in February which kept him out of ten games. His quality of play after returning from the injury was underwhelming to say the least as he struggled to get back up to speed with the rest of the team and found himself in Kirk Muller's dog house for a couple games. This was something that troubled a lot of fans because Ruutu had signed a four-year contract extension worth $4.75 mil. per year about a month prior and getting on the coach's bad side can have some bad long-term effects.
The issue with Muller ended up not being as big of a deal as it was made out to be, but there is going to be a lot of talk about Ruutu's price-tag and whether or not he isn't worth the 18 goals and 34 points he produced this season is worth $4.75 mil. This was Ruutu's lowest point total since 2007-08 and he was just coming off a career high 57 points the year prior, so I think we can expect better boxcar stats from Ruutu next year. He also produced at what is considered a top-six rate at even strength, which is a good sign for next season.
What concerns me the most is that Ruutu's inconsistencies are not only present in his counting stasts, but his underlying numbers, as well. A look at those is coming after the jump.
no commentsThe Hurricanes are a team with plenty of holes but Jim Rutherford has made it clear that finding a forward to play on Eric Staal's line will be the top priority, whether that be by trade or free agency. While the contributions that the team got from Jiri Tlusty and Chad LaRose were nice, they aren't ideal first liners and probably wouldn't be getting those minutes on a lot of teams in the league. So it is obvious that there is a big hole to fill there, but Rutherford is going to have a hard time filling this hole because the free agent market this summer is very thin if you're looking for a winger.
The player who is first on most Hurricanes fans wishlist is Zach Parise from the New Jersey Devils, who is one of the top players in the league at his position. Fans really seem to want Rutherford to make a push for him and while it would be wise for him to do so, the problem is that he will need to outbid at least ten other teams in order to get him. Parise is going to want a very long contract and I don't think the Hurricanes can take that risk right now. The team is rebuilding and still has long-term money invested in Staal and Ward, so I don't think adding another 5+ year deal is the best way to go at the moment.
While the Hurricanes are going to need to take a few risks in order to acquire a top-level player, I don't think that Rutherford can give Parise what other teams are willing to offer him. There's just too many teams in the mix and Parise's demands are going to be pretty large. There are other options, though and one of them might be unpopular with some Caniacs. Yes, I am talking about Alexander Semin of the Washington Capitals.
Semin might not have the greatest reputation around the league but he is a great talent and I think the Hurricanes might have somewhat of a realistic shot at signing him this off-season. Find out why after the jump.
no commentsOne of my favorite moves that Jim Rutherford made last off-season was the signing of Alexei Ponikarovsky to a one-year deal at a very low cost of $1.50 mil. I liked this move because while Ponikarovsky was coming off a bad season with the Los Angeles Kings (5 goals, 15 points in 61 games), he was previously an 18-21 goal scorer for a good part of his career and had top-six potential. The other thing I liked about Poni was his ability to drive possession at a pretty high rate. He has been extremely well at doing this over the last few seasons, so even if he wasn't scoring, he would at least be contributing in other areas. That last sentence sums up his year with the Hurricanes perfectly.
The Poni Express' career as a Hurricane lasted 49 games before he was traded to the New Jersey Devils for Joe Sova and a 4th round pick, but I think he played a lot better than his 7-7-14 scoring line indicates. He is a player who I thought "did everything but score" because he was used in so many roles this year and performed well in most of them. The only problem was that he just couldn't seem to hit the back of the net no matter how many shots he got off. Whether you want to blame that on a 7.1% shooting percentage or a "lack of finishing ability" is up to you.
Either way, Ponikarovsky has proven himself to be a useful piece but he is more suited for a third-line role now, which is something that the Hurricanes did not need this year. Which is why he has performed better on the Devils, a team that was starving for depth forwards and Ponikarovsky gave them exactly what they needed at the time. I have a feeling that he will have a job in the NHL next year.
After the jump, we will take a look at the underlying stats from Poni's tenure with the Hurricanes and see in which ways he was useful here, and how he was not.
no commentsCarolina's young defenseman Jamie McBain is probably one of my favorite players to analyze because the fanbase's opinion always on him always seems to be split. On one hand, people see a skilled player who is slowly, but surely, adjusting to the NHL and will be a great top-four defenseman in the next couple of years. Then you have the people who see him as a complete liability on defense and should be dealt for a team that needs a puck-mover. There are also individuals in the same crowd who think that he should be moved to make room for Ryan Murphy, the Hurricanes' first round pick from last year.
I have discussed McBain many times in the past and have determined a few things. The first of which is that he isn't quite ready to play tough minutes yet and was most effective when used in a third-pairing role with Jaroslav Spacek. In addition to that, I said McBain is good enough that he doesn't need to be completely protected and that his most recent season wasn't much different from how he performed in 2010-11. He just looked worse when he was being used in tough situations that he likely wasn't ready for.
McBain has his flaws and probably isn't going to be a top-pairing defenseman but it is my opinion that he hasn't been nearly as bad as a lot of fans have made him out to be. That being said, I think that he has his limits and I do question whether or not he has the ability to play tough minutes in the future. He doesn't need to play this kind of role, but it would make him a much more valuable player if he does. Justin Faulk playing a top-four role at only 19 years of age is another thing that probably made McBain look worse than he really is, since he is 24 and has struggled in similar situations.
There are a couple things to remember with that last point. 1) Defenseman in general take a long time to develop. Faulk is an exception to this rule. 2) At 24, McBain is still relatively young and this season was only his second full-year in the NHL. Saying that he will never be a good defenseman now when he has played a top-four role and posted decent to good possession metrics on a bad possession team is just silly.
Where is McBain in his development, though? It seems like the "peak age" for players is getting younger each year in the NHL so it would be good to know where McBain stands compared to other defensemen his age. We will explore this issue after the jump.
no commentsThis series has been in the books for almost a week and there has been plenty of time for the pundits and bloggers to create their narratives about the Coyotes sending the Preds home in only five games. Last time I checked, the ongoing story is that that the Preds ran into the "hungrier team" and had their chemistry ruined by two lazy, misbehaving players. Some other explanations I've heard are saying that the Preds took Phoenix too lightly and were "believing the hype of their own team" after they knocked off Detroit.
People are entitled to believe what they want but most of the underlying numbers say that the Preds played much better than the results might indicate. They outplayed Phoenix at even strength, had a stronger powerplay and controlled possession but goaltending ended up being the difference maker. Coyotes goaltender Mike Smith has carried over his incredible play from the regular season into the playoffs and was the main reason why the Coyotes were able to make such short work of the Predators.
All but one of Phoenix's wins were decided by a goal and Nashville actually outchanced Phoenix in all but one game this series, so this series could have gone in a much different direction if the Preds got a few bounces. Pekka Rinne was good, but Mike Smith was just better and that ended up being the big difference maker. With that being said, there were a few other things that went awry for Nashville and they are not all centered around Alexander Radulov.
A closer look at this series is coming after the jump.
no commentsAfter re-upping with the Canes for three years at $4.5 mil. per year, Joni Pitkanen did not have the best season to start off his new contract. He battled injuries for most of the year, missed 52 games a concussion and knee surgery and wasn't exactly great when he was healthy. Pitkanen has always been more known for his offense but he's been a very good all-around type player for the last couple of seasons. This year, he delivered on the offensive front with 17 points in 30 games but his play in the defensive zone was spotty to say the least.
Pitkanen's underlying numbers are pretty interesting because going by shot/possession stats, he appeared to play decent at even strength but his scoring chance data tells a much different tale. Only Tim Gleason and Derek Joslin had a worse scoring chance ratio than him, and the former plays much tougher minutes than Pitkanen does. In my time tracking scoring chances, I have only seen this happen with a few players but it could possibly mean that Pitkanen was on ice for more high quality shots against than others.
However, Pitkanen didn't get easy minutes at all this year either as he ranked third on the team in corsi relative to quality of competition, which means that he was used regularly against second and third lines. That sounds pretty normal for a guy who plays top four minutes but it's a little tougher than the workload that Pitkanen had the year before. At $4.5 mil. per year, I think Pitkanen should be able to handle these assignments but I also believe that a more stable defense partner could help him, as well.
A look at Pitkanen's underlying numbers from the past season is coming after the jump.
no commentsSometimes GMs will find hidden gems on the waiver wire and while Andreas Nod isn't exactly a diamond in the rough, he is a very useful player and the Hurricanes were able to get him for next to nothing at the end November. Nodl's career with the Hurricanes didn't have a great start as it took Kirk Muller a little over a month to find out Nodl's strengths and decide where he fits in the lineup. It was then that Nodl's play started to improve and he became a regular on the team's third line with Patrick Dwyer and Brandon Sutter.
Nodl has never been a great puck handler and needs top-nine minutes to succeed but his terrific defensive play is something that gets overlooked by a lot of people and makes him valuable to a team like the Hurricanes. Fortunately, this did not pass over Muller's head and he made Nodl one of the team's "heavy lifters" and Nodl performed fairly well in this role. Nodl's defensive skills keep him from being a replacement level player but you can find guys who have similar skills to him for close to the league minimum. Hence why the Canes were able to get him off waivers.
With that in mind, I think Nodl has a lot of potential and plays a big role on the third line but his offensive skills are something that needs a lot of work. That isn't his role but one of my complaints from this season was that the Hurricanes weren't getting enough offense from their third line and Nodl was a key reason for that. He did a lot of good things even when he wasn't scoring, though and that point is reinforced when you look at his underlying numbers from this year.
no commentsThere were a lot of bloggers and pundits who predicted the Phoenix Coyotes taking a large step back this season because they lost an top-tier goaltender in Ilya Bryzgalov and replaced him with Mike Smith, a goalie who had a sub-.900 save percentage last season and was waived by the Tampa Bay Lightning. It is probably a safe bet to say that not many thought the Coyotes would make the Western Conference Finals and even fewer that predicted Mike Smith would be the reason why they would get that far. Fast forward to May and the Coyotes are one of the last two teams remaining in the Western Conference on the back of Mike Smith's .948 save percentage.
Going into this series, I gave the Predators the advantage because I thought they would be relying on goaltending less than the Coyotes and that was true for the most part. They outchanced Phoenix 19-11 in game 5 and 15-11 at even strength but Mike Smith, once again, played lights out and was a key role in Phoenix's 2-1 win over Nashville to eliminate them from the playoffs. Phoenix wasn't getting dominated at even strength, but the puck was in their end for most of the night and goaltending was the deciding factor in yet another game. You have to wonder how long this kind of strategy will keep up for the Coyotes but it's gotten them pretty deep in the playoffs now and they are only eight wins away from the Stanley Cup. It is pretty unbelievable when you look at their numbers over the series. We will look at those numbers later, but for now, we will look at how game 5 went.
no commentsAfter a solid rookie season, Jamie McBain began this year in the press box and had to earn his playing time with seven other defensemen also on the team. It didn't take long for him to be inserted back into the lineup and he had quite a wild year to say the least. With his usual defense partner, Joni Pitkanen, being on the IR for most of the season, the coaching staff had a tough time figuring out how to use McBain and his performance on ice either thrived or suffered as a result.
There were games when McBain was used against the toughs and that had mixed results. He managed to hold his own on some nights and got destroyed on others. The word "sophomore slump" came up a lot with McBain this year when he was playing tough minutes when in reality, he was playing a role that he wasn't fit for and probably shouldn't have been used in. Uncoincidentally, he started playing better in a protected third pairing role with Jaroslav Spacek and saw all of his numbers improve.
McBain's versatility is nice to have and he gained a lot of experience this season, but where does he fit on the team long-term? A look at his numbers from this year show that he is best as a third-pairing defenseman for now but might not be completely helpless in a top four role. A look at said numbers is coming after the jump.
no commentsChad LaRose is one player who I've spent a lot of time defending this season because while he doesn't always make the best decisions and isn't an ideal top-line winger, he simply got the job done when it came to generating scoring chances and possession. He isn't a star player and will probably never score more than 35 points, but he can be used just about anywhere in the lineup and is at least passable in whatever role he plays. LaRose showed a lot of that this season as he was used on every line at least once and played a considerable amount of time on both special teams units. Something else that might be overlooked is that this season was LaRose's strongest in the NHL.
I know that 19 goals and 32 points doesn't look like much, but the latter is a career-high for LaRose and his strong possession numbers show that it wasn't a fluke. Spending a lot of time in the top-six and on the powerplay probably helped, though. The truth about LaRose is that he isn't a pure-goal scorer and probably isn't suited for a top-six role. However, he is an excellent third liner and was one of Carolina's better players this season.
After the jump, we will take a look at LaRose's underlying numbers from this year and how much he benefited the team. It might be a lot more than you think.
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